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<http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/12/27/1072308725518.html>
Premiership chances a matter of time
By Rohan Connolly
December 28, 2003
Tick, tick, tick. The clock keeps creeping forward. An AFL season comes and goes. Then another year. And with the approach of a new one, the window of premiership opportunity for 16 clubs opens or narrows.
So goes the "premiership clock" theory often espoused by Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse. In the dual premiership coach's football time zone system, the time for winning flags is between 11 and 1 o'clock. The chance may have slipped come 3 o'clock, and by 6, we're strictly in rebuilding territory.
It's a theory that has probably occupied the veteran coach's mind a little more frequently these past few months, Collingwood having fluffed its second successive opportunity at the grand prize after spending a full five years moving from 6 to 12. The precocious, underrated Pies probably got to the first of them by 10.30. By September this year, however, at least until grand final day, few would have argued that Collingwood was anything other than perfectly placed.
With a grand final hiding and another six months later, where will the hands on the Magpies' clock be come the start of 2004? That depends upon your criteria.
It will be tempting to many next year to envisage Collingwood at 2 o'clock, for a couple of obvious reasons. Who can say with any certainty what will be the psychological impact of two successive grand final losses, particularly in an era in which they are harder to come by.
Geelong was the last team to lose two in a row, in 1994-95. There are plenty of people at Kardinia Park who will tell you the Cats still wear the scars of those defeats.
Then there's the Nathan Buckley factor. The Magpie skipper's premiership dream is unfulfilled and, at 31, could remain so. His influence as a leader will continue, but for how much longer can he deliver that influence he has, purely as a football talent?
But those who still see Collingwood at 12 o'clock have weighty arguments also. While Buckley's output may decline, so has the Magpies' dependence upon him, paticularly over the past two seasons. Age? The Pies have officially the youngest list in the league next year. Experience? Surely the harsh grand final lessons learnt by the likes of young Jason Cloke, Rhyce Shaw and Richard Cole against the might of Brisbane must have benefited them greatly.
The biggest problem for the Pies might be more the number of top-order rivals also residing in the "premiership hours".
With a month of last season to go, who wouldn't have seen Brisbane was creeping slowly past one on the clockface, ageing and injured? But September revealed again the Lions' clear superiority over their rivals in one, not unimportant aspect - sheer talent. There's an argument a fourth flag on end for the Lions might be less a psychological hurdle than was a hat-trick. But there can be few arguments that if Brisbane is past 12 o'clock, it's by a few minutes only.
Port Adelaide will have more than its share of sceptics next season given its September capitulations of the past two years. But the Power has lost only nine of its past 44 home-and-away games, and while it has lost Nick Stevens, will regain injured prime movers Matthew Primus, Josh Francou and Roger James. A couple of "chokes" at the wrong moment shouldn't be enough to have Port headed towards 3 o'clock.
That's more of a problem for its SA stablemate. Adelaide stocked up heavily on experience for a genuine premiership tilt in 2003 but fell well short. The Crows' best players remain their oldest and, in some cases, most injury-prone. They'd appear for all the world somewhere between two and three, their best past, their worst to come. The lack of significant changes to the list, however, indicates the Crows still think they're close enough to midday.
Who is creeping up to the premiership zone? Before last season, Sydney would have been considered almost as close to six o'clock. Now, the Swans, having fallen a few goals short of a grand final berth, surely have to be around nine or 10.
Fremantle, too, has the look of a team that, with little more than fine tuning, can step out of the twilight hours into flag-winning territory.
And St Kilda's consistent plundering of the best young talent in the country has the Saints, though a little further behind the other two, at least about 8.30 or nine.
Essendon is, depending upon your view, overly reliant on a couple of stars and still on the downslope of its glorious 2000, headed for 2 o'clock, or, regenerating, reinvigorated, and after a fine finish to 2003, closer to 10.
Hawthorn has been stuck at eight or nine for too long now. If it doesn't get a wriggle on, it will find itself jumping a time zone and heading for the disastrous early hours.
And poor old Carlton, stuck on six o'clock for at least two seasons, might, thanks to its grab bag of established senior talent, finally be able to get the hands on the clockface moving again. For the Blues, the premiership clock can't move quickly enough. For their arch enemy Collingwood, in contrast, it's a case of hoping time can stand still a little longer.
I think we are about 3 o'clock but its not just a matter of where we are. Its where we are in relation to the opposition teams.
An Adelaide injury can move our clock towards 4 and an opposition injury can move it the other way.
Whaddayareckon
Premiership chances a matter of time
By Rohan Connolly
December 28, 2003
Tick, tick, tick. The clock keeps creeping forward. An AFL season comes and goes. Then another year. And with the approach of a new one, the window of premiership opportunity for 16 clubs opens or narrows.
So goes the "premiership clock" theory often espoused by Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse. In the dual premiership coach's football time zone system, the time for winning flags is between 11 and 1 o'clock. The chance may have slipped come 3 o'clock, and by 6, we're strictly in rebuilding territory.
It's a theory that has probably occupied the veteran coach's mind a little more frequently these past few months, Collingwood having fluffed its second successive opportunity at the grand prize after spending a full five years moving from 6 to 12. The precocious, underrated Pies probably got to the first of them by 10.30. By September this year, however, at least until grand final day, few would have argued that Collingwood was anything other than perfectly placed.
With a grand final hiding and another six months later, where will the hands on the Magpies' clock be come the start of 2004? That depends upon your criteria.
It will be tempting to many next year to envisage Collingwood at 2 o'clock, for a couple of obvious reasons. Who can say with any certainty what will be the psychological impact of two successive grand final losses, particularly in an era in which they are harder to come by.
Geelong was the last team to lose two in a row, in 1994-95. There are plenty of people at Kardinia Park who will tell you the Cats still wear the scars of those defeats.
Then there's the Nathan Buckley factor. The Magpie skipper's premiership dream is unfulfilled and, at 31, could remain so. His influence as a leader will continue, but for how much longer can he deliver that influence he has, purely as a football talent?
But those who still see Collingwood at 12 o'clock have weighty arguments also. While Buckley's output may decline, so has the Magpies' dependence upon him, paticularly over the past two seasons. Age? The Pies have officially the youngest list in the league next year. Experience? Surely the harsh grand final lessons learnt by the likes of young Jason Cloke, Rhyce Shaw and Richard Cole against the might of Brisbane must have benefited them greatly.
The biggest problem for the Pies might be more the number of top-order rivals also residing in the "premiership hours".
With a month of last season to go, who wouldn't have seen Brisbane was creeping slowly past one on the clockface, ageing and injured? But September revealed again the Lions' clear superiority over their rivals in one, not unimportant aspect - sheer talent. There's an argument a fourth flag on end for the Lions might be less a psychological hurdle than was a hat-trick. But there can be few arguments that if Brisbane is past 12 o'clock, it's by a few minutes only.
Port Adelaide will have more than its share of sceptics next season given its September capitulations of the past two years. But the Power has lost only nine of its past 44 home-and-away games, and while it has lost Nick Stevens, will regain injured prime movers Matthew Primus, Josh Francou and Roger James. A couple of "chokes" at the wrong moment shouldn't be enough to have Port headed towards 3 o'clock.
That's more of a problem for its SA stablemate. Adelaide stocked up heavily on experience for a genuine premiership tilt in 2003 but fell well short. The Crows' best players remain their oldest and, in some cases, most injury-prone. They'd appear for all the world somewhere between two and three, their best past, their worst to come. The lack of significant changes to the list, however, indicates the Crows still think they're close enough to midday.
Who is creeping up to the premiership zone? Before last season, Sydney would have been considered almost as close to six o'clock. Now, the Swans, having fallen a few goals short of a grand final berth, surely have to be around nine or 10.
Fremantle, too, has the look of a team that, with little more than fine tuning, can step out of the twilight hours into flag-winning territory.
And St Kilda's consistent plundering of the best young talent in the country has the Saints, though a little further behind the other two, at least about 8.30 or nine.
Essendon is, depending upon your view, overly reliant on a couple of stars and still on the downslope of its glorious 2000, headed for 2 o'clock, or, regenerating, reinvigorated, and after a fine finish to 2003, closer to 10.
Hawthorn has been stuck at eight or nine for too long now. If it doesn't get a wriggle on, it will find itself jumping a time zone and heading for the disastrous early hours.
And poor old Carlton, stuck on six o'clock for at least two seasons, might, thanks to its grab bag of established senior talent, finally be able to get the hands on the clockface moving again. For the Blues, the premiership clock can't move quickly enough. For their arch enemy Collingwood, in contrast, it's a case of hoping time can stand still a little longer.
I think we are about 3 o'clock but its not just a matter of where we are. Its where we are in relation to the opposition teams.
An Adelaide injury can move our clock towards 4 and an opposition injury can move it the other way.
Whaddayareckon
