The FIFA Voting thread

[Pessimistic]

As of Aug 2010 - would it be a good idea to keep a thread with all references to the voting intentions or theories until the time of the vote (Dec 2010)

The voting dlegates:

Joseph S. BLATTER Switzerland
Ángel María VILLAR LLONA Spain
Michel PLATINI France
Geoff THOMPSON England
Michel D'HOOGHE Belgium
Marios LEFKARITIS Cyprus
Franz BECKENBAUER Germany
Vitaly MUTKO Russia
Senes ERZIK Turkey


Worawi MAKUDI Thailand
Junji OGURA Japan
Mohamed AL ABDULLA Qatar
CHUNG **** Joon Korea Republic

Ricardo Terra TEIXEIRA Brazil
Nicolás LEOZ Paraguay
Julio H. GRONDONA Argentina

Chuck BLAZER USA
Rafael SALGUERO Guatemala
Jack A. WARNER Trinidad and Tobago

Issa HAYATOU Cameroon
Amos ADAMU Nigeria
Jacques ANOUMA Côte d'Ivoire
Hany ABO RIDA Egypt

Reynald TEMARII Tahiti


The 2022 Candidates:

Australia

Japan

S Korea

Qatar

USA

 

[Zidane98]

Good Thread. Expect that Bin Hammam will vote for Qatar, both of the Korean & Japanese delegates will vote for their own bids and the Thai delegate will vote for Australia, after we joined the ASEAN football association. Expect all Asian delegates to back the last remaining Asian bid in the final anaylsis.

In terms of the other delegates. Oceania is a virtually guaranteed vote, and Australia can also expect strong support from European delegates, with Australia's historical, cultural and diplomatic ties (thanks to the fine work done by our World Cup consultants). You would expect that all of CONCACAF's delegates will vote for the US, although Jack Warner has a poor relationship with the US. CONEMBOL is most likely to back a US Bid, although it isn't certain in the way that CONCACAF is. Africa is up for grabs.

 

[Watergate]

...
The 2012 Candidates:

Bit of housekeeping ... you may want to change it to "2022 Candidates".

Interesting to see how the mood has changed on this forum from ...

In late May 2010, the Anti-WC brigade's belligerent attitude was:

* "FIFA won't ever let Australia will never host a WC - wrong time zone, not enough interest in the Game, stadiums aren't suitable"

Now, a couple of months later and the Anti-WC brigade are nervously wondering "does the FFA have the numbers"?

I'm going to keep a "smell of fear monitor" over the next few months.

 

[Pessimistic]

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/soccer/vote-promised-to-qatar-or-asia-20100728-10w3v.html

Qatari Hammam, one of 24 FIFA executives who will vote on hosts for the 2018 and 2022 tournaments on December 2 in Zurich, has vowed to support his home nation unless it is not a realistic chance.

''I have one vote … And frankly speaking, I will vote for Qatar. But if Qatar is not in the run, I will vote for another Asian country,'' Bin Hammam said at a football forum in Singapore yesterday. ''I am president of Asia so it is my duty to see that World Cup will be hosted in Asia no matter which country



To my non expert eye - Im guessing Hammam has not been able to get the asian "consensus" he was looking for and has declared he will go it alone - as long as qatar is in the frame. You might surmise from past comments that he does not regard australia as an asian country.

Its no wonder he didnt get an asian consensus - japan has their own bid as has south korea.

Would I be right in saying the USA poses a big threat. The asian vote (includinf aus) is fragmented but if you dont vote asia - there is only one option - the USA

The problem for an asian bid is surviving the first two rounds. if the USA starts on say 8 votes, thet leaves 16 for the other 4 bidders, so youd be wanting a minimum of four votes in the first round

Hammam believes he has his vote and at least the four african votes. qatar will survive the first round even though it is the worst bid by far. Japan and Korea, being close together, migh split thir small vote even further - one will drop out - the voters for that country probably would then support the other

In the second round the bar would be about 6 votes - with asia voters still splitting the vote three ways - another asian candidate to drop out As mentioned I dont think Aus or qatar (if they have survived) will have gained votes from japan or korea. Qatar might be rolled here, but would direct its vote to japan or korea - whether the africans follow or not is interesting

Third round would be USA and two asian candidates. There is a possibility for the US to be rolled here

That might be good for aus if it has survived this far - US sympathisers might then see Aus as a similar place to hold the world cup. in fac, the sooner the US is removed, the better it is for Aus, because the asian vote is unlikely to be redirected to us

 

[Pessimistic]

Bit of housekeeping ... you may want to change it to "2022 Candidates".

Interesting to see how the mood has changed on this forum from ...

In late May 2010, the Anti-WC brigade's belligerent attitude was:

* "FIFA won't ever let Australia will never host a WC - wrong time zone, not enough interest in the Game, stadiums aren't suitable"

Now, a couple of months later and the Anti-WC brigade are nervously wondering "does the FFA have the numbers"?

I'm going to keep a "smell of fear monitor" over the next few months.

Truth is that list of delegates above is a far bigger hurdle than the AFL and NRL - (sympathisers of haters)

The delegates dont have to justify thier vote so while 'logic' might play a part - its not the whole story

In all the Aus bid is a good one with a very balanced approach to stadiums.

Some did say the stadiums needed to give a massive free kick to soccer for FIFA to be impressed but that might be an extreme view too

 

[Footy Smarts]

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/soccer/vote-promised-to-qatar-or-asia-20100728-10w3v.html

Qatari Hammam, one of 24 FIFA executives who will vote on hosts for the 2018 and 2022 tournaments on December 2 in Zurich, has vowed to support his home nation unless it is not a realistic chance.

''I have one vote … And frankly speaking, I will vote for Qatar. But if Qatar is not in the run, I will vote for another Asian country,'' Bin Hammam said at a football forum in Singapore yesterday. ''I am president of Asia so it is my duty to see that World Cup will be hosted in Asia no matter which country

To my non expert eye - Im guessing Hammam has not been able to get the asian "consensus" he was looking for and has declared he will go it alone - as long as qatar is in the frame. You might surmise from past comments that he does not regard australia as an asian country.

I saw this story and really it seemed like something that didn't really need to be said. Obviously Bin Hamman is going to vote for Qatar while it's still in the race. That was never in doubt. Then he will lean towards other asian countries. As for him not regarding Australia as an asian country I think that's a very long bow to draw. If it came down to Aus Vs USA then he would certainly vote with Australia. Voting against a member of his own confederation would be political suicide. Australia's problem is getting to that point.

Its no wonder he didnt get an asian consensus - japan has their own bid as has south korea.

That was never likely to happen because it was always going to be a huge chance for this to be an asian world cup (with South America and almost certainly Europe being out of the running). Once there is only 1 asian country left then there will be an asian consensus almost certainly though.

Would I be right in saying the USA poses a big threat. The asian vote (includinf aus) is fragmented but if you dont vote asia - there is only one option - the USA

The problem for an asian bid is surviving the first two rounds. if the USA starts on say 8 votes, thet leaves 16 for the other 4 bidders, so youd be wanting a minimum of four votes in the first round

Hammam believes he has his vote and at least the four african votes. qatar will survive the first round even though it is the worst bid by far. Japan and Korea, being close together, migh split thir small vote even further - one will drop out - the voters for that country probably would then support the other

In the second round the bar would be about 6 votes - with asia voters still splitting the vote three ways - another asian candidate to drop out As mentioned I dont think Aus or qatar (if they have survived) will have gained votes from japan or korea. Qatar might be rolled here, but would direct its vote to japan or korea - whether the africans follow or not is interesting

This is a pretty good analysis. Basically Australia needs to get enough of the non-commited votes (mainly Europe and perhaps Africa) in order to get through the first couple of rounds and knock out a couple of other asian candidates. If that's the case we could draw votes from SK or Japan once they're eliminated as I'd say these would be the likely first 2 eliminated if it's not us. If we make it through to the last phase and are against the USA then I can see us winning because more of the split vote (ie the asians and those supporting other asian countries) would go towards us than towards the US. Getting knocked out in the first or second round is a big danger though.

Third round would be USA and two asian candidates. There is a possibility for the US to be rolled here

That might be good for aus if it has survived this far - US sympathisers might then see Aus as a similar place to hold the world cup. in fac, the sooner the US is removed, the better it is for Aus, because the asian vote is unlikely to be redirected to us

This might be the case. Basically it all comes down to where the Europeans and Africans go.

 

[Michael2010]

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/soccer/vote-promised-to-qatar-or-asia-20100728-10w3v.html

Qatari Hammam, one of 24 FIFA executives who will vote on hosts for the 2018 and 2022 tournaments on December 2 in Zurich, has vowed to support his home nation unless it is not a realistic chance.

''I have one vote … And frankly speaking, I will vote for Qatar. But if Qatar is not in the run, I will vote for another Asian country,'' Bin Hammam said at a football forum in Singapore yesterday. ''I am president of Asia so it is my duty to see that World Cup will be hosted in Asia no matter which country

To my non expert eye - Im guessing Hammam has not been able to get the asian "consensus" he was looking for and has declared he will go it alone - as long as qatar is in the frame. You might surmise from past comments that he does not regard australia as an asian country.

Basically he's playing the game, Asia pulled out of the 2018 bid completely because they want all the European votes for 2022 similarly Asia will vote for Europe in 2018 and so will the African nations. He has to vote for Qatar initially, I mean he wants to be able to go back to his country alive right? But we all know where he really thinks the bid is ending up at Asia has all the European votes and Australia has both Thailand and Indonesia voting for them plus possibly Trinidad and Tobago.

 

[Pessimistic]

One side issue. qatar japan and korea can offer votes to particular european bids in 2018 in return for return for votes in 2022 (possibles are belgium, Spain, England and Russia.

Australia cannot.

On the other hand if this became known, the other europan bids might vote against that country in 2022

So we are saying likely first round votes for Australia are Germany, Trinidad, Thailand and Tahiti ?

 

[McCrann]

Bit of housekeeping ... you may want to change it to "2022 Candidates".

Interesting to see how the mood has changed on this forum from ...

In late May 2010, the Anti-WC brigade's belligerent attitude was:

* "FIFA won't ever let Australia will never host a WC - wrong time zone, not enough interest in the Game, stadiums aren't suitable"

Now, a couple of months later and the Anti-WC brigade are nervously wondering "does the FFA have the numbers"?

I'm going to keep a "smell of fear monitor" over the next few months.

Interesting that you quote what was going on in May 2010 around here and yet your join date is clearly July 2010.

Sock Puppet? But of who?? There have been so many FIFA Fanboys pass through here.

hmmmmmm

 

[Pessimistic]

Can we PLEEEEase not have the bickering in this thread ?

 

[mojito]

Interesting that you quote what was going on in May 2010 around here and yet your join date is clearly July 2010.

Sock Puppet? But of who?? There have been so many FIFA Fanboys pass through here.

hmmmmmm

Does that mean anything though?

I've quoted/mentioned stuff from December, yet I joined up in Feb.

 

[Zidane98]

One side issue. qatar japan and korea can offer votes to particular european bids in 2018 in return for return for votes in 2022 (possibles are belgium, Spain, England and Russia.

Australia cannot.

On the other hand if this became known, the other europan bids might vote against that country in 2022

So we are saying likely first round votes for Australia are Germany, Trinidad, Thailand and Tahiti ?

Thailand's delegate is effectively a vote Australia can offer; with Australia's recent entry into the ASEAN football association, there's no doubt that the Thai delegate will back an Australian bid (to get the World Cup in ASEAN)

 

[Checker Hughes]

I spoke to one of Australias most important foreign allies for 2022 while in South Africa ,about our bid-in depth.Was an extremely interesting conversation and I feel rather chuffed to know what I do.

 

[Michael2010]

All four African members of Fifa's executive committee voted for losers Morocco in the 2010 World Cup hosts, Fifa sources said. South Africa won Saturday's vote by a clear majority of the 24-man committee of world football's governing body by 14-10 in the first round ballot. But the four Caf members cast their ballots for Morocco.

Morocco also received four votes from Europe and two from Asia, the sources said.South Africa's 14 votes were drawn from South America, Oceania and CONCACAF - the grouping of central, north American and Caribbean countries.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/africa/3717419.stm

Hopefully Oceania's vote for Africa for the 2010 hosting rights and Asia's vote for Morocco means we have both bases covered, plus Europe? plus the oceania vote and one Asian vote (the Asian vote is going to be split in four anyway, qatar will get one, south korea will get one and japan will get the other unless someone gets KO'd).

 

[mustapha]

I spoke to one of Australias most important foreign allies for 2022 while in South Africa ,about our bid-in depth.Was an extremely interesting conversation and I feel rather chuffed to know what I do.

Is it good news?

 

[Pessimistic]

Perhps voting for 2018 and 2022 in the same conference will encourage vote trading.

I wonder if FIFA will come up with some (probably innefective) way to counter it ?

 

[andrew23]

What date/time/location is the announcement? Surely they will show it live on Aussie TV.

I can see myself getting up for 10 minutes in the middle of the night and not being able to go back to sleep due to excitement or anger.

 

[AJ_2000]

Decision is being announced at 11:30pm on the 2/12 (from Zurich).

I would expect there will be live coverage of the event. The voting is done in private, they will just come out and say "the winner is......... Siney!"

 

[mighty tiges]

I put this together a while back. I don't think anything has changed (Bin Hammam was always going to vote for Qatar).

Probably helps to list the 24 voting delegates by Confederation as a guide.

UEFA - Europe
Sepp Blatter President Switzerland
Ángel María Villar Vice-President Spain
Michel Platini Vice-President France
Geoff Thompson Vice-President England
Michel D'Hooghe Member Belgium
Senes Erzik Member Turkey
Marios Lefkaritis Member Cyprus
Franz Beckenbauer Member Germany
Vitaly Mutko Member Russia
Jerome Valcke Secretary General France - doesn't vote

9 votes - The key confederation for us to win over not only because UEFA has the most delegates but because other conferations will mostly go against us in favour of their "local" bid candidate. Asia backing Europe for 2018 would mean they would want Europe to back Asia for 2022. Which Asian bid though?

CONMEBOL - South America
Julio Grondona Senior Vice-President Argentina
Ricardo Terra Teixeira Member Brazil
Nicolas Leoz Member Paraguay

3 votes - most likely will support the USA bid.

CAF - Africa
Issa Hayatou Vice-President Cameroon
Amos Adamu Member Nigeria
Jacques Anouma Member Ivory Coast
Hany Abo Rida Member Egypt

4 votes - Has Qatar's bribery with stadia paid off?

AFC - Asia
Chung **** Joon Vice-President South Korea
Mohammed Bin Hammam Member Qatar
Junji Ogura Member Japan
Worawi Makudi Member Thailand

4 votes - 3 delegates will obviously vote for their home bid which doesn't help us. Aussie bid would need to survive the early rounds and hope other Asian bids are knocked out before ours to gain these delegates' votes.

CONCACAF - North and Central America
Jack Warner Vice-President Trinidad and Tobago
Chuck Blazer Member United States of America
Rafael Salguero Member Guatemala

3 votes - You'd expect all 3 would be pro-USA bid.

OFC - Oceania
Reynald Temarii Vice-President Tahiti

1 vote - a certainty to back Australia's bid.

-----------------------------------------

Possible known votes for 2022 (assuming Europe gets 2018):

USA 6
Qatar 5
Australia 1
Japan 1
Korea 1

Unknown - Europe's 9 plus the Thai delegate.

Target is 13 votes to win the bid!

Australia needs to survive the first two rounds of voting hoping both Japan and Korea get knocked out. Then hope the delegates who voted for Japan/Korea vote for us to push us up into at least 2nd place by the third round of voting ahead of Qatar. Then hope Africa swing behind us in the final round of voting.

So we need to suck up to the European delegates to get the most first choice votes and be the African delegates' 2nd choice behind Qatar.

Example:

First Round:
USA 8 (3 Nth Am., 3 South Am., 2 Euro)
Qatar 7 (1 Asia, 4 Africa, 2 Euro)
Australia 4 (3 Euro, 1 Oceania)
Japan 3 (2 Asia, 1 Euro)
Korea 2 (1 Asia, 1 Euro)

Second Round:
USA 8 (3 Nth Am., 3 South Am., 2 Euro)
Qatar 7 (1 Asia, 4 Africa, 2 Euro)
Australia 5 (4 Euro, 1 Oceania)
Japan 4 (3 Asia, 1 Euro)

Third Round:
USA 9 (3 Nth Am., 3 South Am., 3 Euro)
Australia 8 (3 Asia, 4 Euro, 1 Oceania)
Qatar 7 (1 Asia, 4 Africa, 2 Euro)

Final Round:
Australia 13 (4 Asia, 5 Euro, 3 Africa, 1 Oceania)
USA 11 (3 Nth Am., 3 South Am., 4 Euro, 1 Africa)

 

[Zidane98]

I put this together a while back. I don't think anything has changed (Bin Hammam was always going to vote for Qatar).

Probably helps to list the 24 voting delegates by Confederation as a guide.

UEFA - Europe
Sepp Blatter President Switzerland
Ángel María Villar Vice-President Spain
Michel Platini Vice-President France
Geoff Thompson Vice-President England
Michel D'Hooghe Member Belgium
Senes Erzik Member Turkey
Marios Lefkaritis Member Cyprus
Franz Beckenbauer Member Germany
Vitaly Mutko Member Russia
Jerome Valcke Secretary General France - doesn't vote

9 votes - The key confederation for us to win over not only because UEFA has the most delegates but because other conferations will mostly go against us in favour of their "local" bid candidate. Asia backing Europe for 2018 would mean they would want Europe to back Asia for 2022. Which Asian bid though?

CONMEBOL - South America
Julio Grondona Senior Vice-President Argentina
Ricardo Terra Teixeira Member Brazil
Nicolas Leoz Member Paraguay

3 votes - most likely will support the USA bid.

CAF - Africa
Issa Hayatou Vice-President Cameroon
Amos Adamu Member Nigeria
Jacques Anouma Member Ivory Coast
Hany Abo Rida Member Egypt

4 votes - Has Qatar's bribery with stadia paid off?

AFC - Asia
Chung **** Joon Vice-President South Korea
Mohammed Bin Hammam Member Qatar
Junji Ogura Member Japan
Worawi Makudi Member Thailand

4 votes - 3 delegates will obviously vote for their home bid which doesn't help us. Aussie bid would need to survive the early rounds and hope other Asian bids are knocked out before ours to gain these delegates' votes.

CONCACAF - North and Central America
Jack Warner Vice-President Trinidad and Tobago
Chuck Blazer Member United States of America
Rafael Salguero Member Guatemala

3 votes - You'd expect all 3 would be pro-USA bid.

OFC - Oceania
Reynald Temarii Vice-President Tahiti

1 vote - a certainty to back Australia's bid.

-----------------------------------------

Possible known votes for 2022 (assuming Europe gets 2018):

USA 6
Qatar 5
Australia 1
Japan 1
Korea 1

Unknown - Europe's 9 plus the Thai delegate.

Target is 13 votes to win the bid!

Australia needs to survive the first two rounds of voting hoping both Japan and Korea get knocked out. Then hope the delegates who voted for Japan/Korea vote for us to push us up into at least 2nd place by the third round of voting ahead of Qatar. Then hope Africa swing behind us in the final round of voting.

So we need to suck up to the European delegates to get the most first choice votes and be the African delegates' 2nd choice behind Qatar.

Example:

First Round:
USA 8 (3 Nth Am., 3 South Am., 2 Euro)
Qatar 7 (1 Asia, 4 Africa, 2 Euro)
Australia 4 (3 Euro, 1 Oceania)
Japan 3 (2 Asia, 1 Euro)
Korea 2 (1 Asia, 1 Euro)

Second Round:
USA 8 (3 Nth Am., 3 South Am., 2 Euro)
Qatar 7 (1 Asia, 4 Africa, 2 Euro)
Australia 5 (4 Euro, 1 Oceania)
Japan 4 (3 Asia, 1 Euro)

Third Round:
USA 9 (3 Nth Am., 3 South Am., 3 Euro)
Australia 8 (3 Asia, 4 Euro, 1 Oceania)
Qatar 7 (1 Asia, 4 Africa, 2 Euro)

Final Round:
Australia 13 (4 Asia, 5 Euro, 3 Africa, 1 Oceania)
USA 11 (3 Nth Am., 3 South Am., 4 Euro, 1 Africa)

Good analysis there mate, although Thailand is a certainty to back us now that we have entered the ASEAN football association (Thai delegate will want the World Cup in his own association).

Jack Warner and the US don't get on very well at all so he may turn around and vote against them, although the most likely result is he votes for the US.

Africa's bids are up for grabs, I certainly don't see them tied up yet by Qatar.

 

[AJ_2000]

Africa's bids are up for grabs, I certainly don't see them tied up yet by Qatar.

Africa will most likely support Qatar. They sponsored the the Afican Congress at the African Cup of Nations earlier in the year, plus are offering to give them parts of their stadia after the wc.

I expect Warner to vote for the US, even though we did pay for their youth team.....

I read on the world game an interview with Lowy earlier in the year about being confident in securing the required votes. He was sure of about 11, so only needed to work on a few more to get it over the line.

 

[Checker Hughes]

Is it good news?

Yes.
I think its important information for FFA and I have both photos and an eyewitness account (there was a number of very reputable folks at our table)to back me up.
I'll be passing this onto them this week.Quite a lengthy discussion that gives me a lot of hope

 

[Zidane98]

Africa will most likely support Qatar. They sponsored the the Afican Congress at the African Cup of Nations earlier in the year, plus are offering to give them parts of their stadia after the wc.

I expect Warner to vote for the US, even though we did pay for their youth team.....

I read on the world game an interview with Lowy earlier in the year about being confident in securing the required votes. He was sure of about 11, so only needed to work on a few more to get it over the line.

Will be interesting to see which way the African votes go once Qatar inevitably drops out of the running.

 

[Pessimistic]

I'm reading Hamman going public as an admission that he hasnt been able to recruit many votes outside africa to qatars cause. and obviously none in asia

People in Europe and the US go to the gulf under sufference to make money.
(and sometimes get shot at, locked up for dringking or screwing outside marriage)

No-one wants to holiday there, they are more ambivalent to the place than we are

 

[Zidane98]

My sister in law's old man works over there as an engineer; there's some lovely resorts there, the place is ultra modern and opulent. I just can't see the World Cup working there with the climate though. Sure, it may be 27 degrees in the stadiums (using evaporative cooling technology - which increases humidity) - but even that's pretty hot. FIFA fanfests will be a no go, there won't be any party atmosphere and no brazillian/swedish girls in bikins - you can't have a World Cup without them!!!!