Fixture The Fixture analysed- Cat Xmas

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

Yes I know we never know who the good teams are gonna be, and this isn't to say there is some unfair conspiracy, more just to point out a few realities of the fixture.

Just looking at the likely finalists, this is how many games they will play against other finalists.

Geelong- 7
Sydney- 7
Melbourne- 10
Collingwood- 9
Carlton- 10
Fremantle- 9
Richmond- 8
Brisbane- 8

When we are talking a game or percentage between home finals and not, the above extra games are significant. The other huge outlier this year are the two worst teams being considerably worse than the rest of the comp. This is how many times the finalist play the free kicks West Coast and North (am aware Richmond and Collingwood have lost to these teams, but come on, seriously, they have been woeful all year)

Geelong -4
Sydney -3
Melbourne -2
Collingwood -2
Carlton -2
Fremantle -3
Richmond -3
Brisbane -2

So I guess the biggest discrepancy here is Melbourne play 3 more games against finalists than Geelong and the Cats get 2 extra games against the easy beats. Not saying the cats are phonies, but that is an unbelievable advantage over a 22 game season which I have heard pretty much nothing about. Wouldn't be ruling the Dees out yet.

 

[PhatBoy]

Yes I know we never know who the good teams are gonna be, and this isn't to say there is some unfair conspiracy, more just to point out a few realities if the fixture.

Just looking at the likely finalists, this is how many games they will play against other finalists.

Geelong- 7
Sydney- 7
Melbourne- 10
Collingwood- 9
Carlton- 10
Fremantle- 9
Richmond- 8
Brisbane- 8

When we are talking a game or percentage between home finals and not, the above extra games are significant. The other huge outlier this year are the two worst teams being considerably worse than the rest of the comp. This is how many times the finalist play the free kicks West Coast and North (am aware Richmond and Collingwood have lost to these teams, but come on, seriously, they have been woeful all year)

Geelong -4
Sydney -3
Melbourne -2
Collingwood -2
Carlton -2
Fremantle -3
Richmond -3
Brisbane -2

So I guess the biggest discrepancy here is Melbourne play 3 more games against finalists than Geelong and the Cats get 2 extra games against the easy beats. Not saying the cats are phonies, but that is an unbelievable advantage over a 22 game season which I have heard pretty much nothing about. Wouldn't be ruling the Dees out yet.

No one is ruling the demons out.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

Plus the cats fail to play Brisbane in Brisbane or Fremantle in Perth this season. Luckiest fixture ever.

 

[Plugger35]

Plus the cats fail to play Brisbane in Brisbane or Fremantle in Perth this season. Luckiest fixture ever.

Not sure how they got one of the easiest fixtures when they played in a prelim while we got one of the hardest fixtures and we missed the finals.

Just look at the last 2 rounds, they get two pretty easy games against the Gold Coast and West Coast while we play top 8 teams in Brisbane and Sydney

 

[Duskfire]

Not sure how they got one of the easiest fixtures when they played in a prelim while we got one of the hardest fixtures and we missed the finals.

Just look at the last 2 rounds, they get two pretty easy games against the Gold Coast and West Coast while we play top 8 teams in Brisbane and Sydney

No one could have predicted that Eagles would be the basket case that they are. And Gold Coast away is not an easy game. Maybe now that they won't make finals they won't be as focused, but the AFL had no way of knowing that.

This is why I am not really a fan of these sorts of comments. It is easy to say in hindsight, but seriously, who thought that Sydney would be top 4 and that Eagles would be 2nd last? Much like umpires, fixturing is an an easy excuse for fans to blame something other than their team. This comes up every year and I feel it has little bearing on the results of the season, if a team is good enough, they are good enough.

 

[STPer18]

Steve Hocking coming in clutch again.

 

[Plugger35]

No one could have predicted that Eagles would be the basket case that they are. And Gold Coast away is not an easy game. Maybe now that they won't make finals they won't be as focused, but the AFL had no way of knowing that.

This is why I am not really a fan of these sorts of comments. It is easy to say in hindsight, but seriously, who thought that Sydney would be top 4 and that Eagles would be 2nd last? Much like umpires, fixturing is an an easy excuse for fans to blame something other than their team. This comes up every year and I feel it has little bearing on the results of the season, if a team is good enough, they are good enough.

No one can accurately predict where all the teams will be on the ladder the next year but it didn't take a genius to see that West Coast were a team on the slide with their age profile and lack of good young players, hardly anyone predicted them to play finals this year, while the Swans were seen as a young team on the rise that were widely predicted to play finals again and improve on their 6th place finish last year.

 

[PhatBoy]

I really want us to win the flag because it’s my team.

But the main reason I want us to win is to see what the next whinge will be about why it happened.

I’ve narrowed it down to a few reasons just to prep myself.

- we have better photos of the MCG ground dimensions than whoever we play against

- our coffee on the morning of the GF was warmer

- our perennially Pick 15+ draft hand was unfair because we’ve told players we scouted to deliberately be worse at junior level so other clubs would miss them

- Mark Blicavs

46

Mark Blicavs

Age

33

Ht

198cm

Wt

101kg

Pos.

M/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.5

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

4.2

5star

CL

1.7

4star

D

11.1

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.9

3star

CL

0.1

2star

D

8.6

3star

K

2.0

1star

HB

6.6

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

CL

2.0

4star

is too fit

- Josh Kennedy was paid to retire two weeks early so we wouldn’t lose Sam De Mining’s run of form in the lead up to finals

- Steven Hocking was wearing an invisible suit and between quarters would widen the goals at whichever end Geelong was kicking to

- the resin on Tom Hawkins

26

Tom Hawkins

Age

35

Ht

197cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.9

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.9

4star

G

2.1

5star

D

12.7

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.1

5star

T

2.1

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

5.6

3star

HB

2.2

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.0

3star

G

2.2

5star

’ shorts was sourced by Stephen Dank

- We are playing with 19 men on the field but because half a dozen are blonde with headbands no one can do a proper headcount

 

[PhatBoy]

No one can accurately predict where all the teams will be on the ladder the next year but it didn't take a genius to see that West Coast were a team on the slide with their age profile and lack of good young players, hardly anyone predicted them to play finals this year, while the Swans were seen as a young team on the rise that were widely predicted to play finals again and improve on their 6th place finish last year.

Yes it’s amazing that west coast with their age profile that in their first, and last matches this season, which is 3 years younger than Geelong’s werent predicted to slip so far and be impacted by injury and covid the way they have been.

More stellar commentary from you

 

[FreddyTwoShoes]

I haven't read through it all, but here's an interesting piece on the 2022 fixture:

An Analysis of Strength of Schedule for the Men's 2022 AFL Season — Matter of Stats

I thought that this year I might not have time to perform the traditional Strength of Schedule analysis, having spent far too long during the off-season re-optimising the MoS twins (more on which in a future blog), but here I am on a rainy night in Sydney with a toothache that a masochist would labe

www.matterofstats.com

There's a lot of interesting considerations in there, and it's probably worth the effort to try and understand them, but if you only want the conclusion, here it is:

 

[dean33]

Hmmm the most advantaged team in the comp also play other finalists less and bottom 2 more.

Who would have thought??

 

[STPer18]

Hmmm the most advantaged team in the comp also play other finalists less and bottom 2 more.

Who would have thought??

All according to plan. Apparently we're signing Grundy, DeGoey and Hopper for next season too. Bottomless salary cap at it again I guess.

 

[PhatBoy]

Hmmm the most advantaged team in the comp also play other finalists less and bottom 2 more.

Who would have thought??

Just be grateful your team only had to lose to north Melbourne once genius

 

[Plugger35]

Yes it’s amazing that west coast with their age profile that in their first, and last matches this season, which is 3 years younger than Geelong’s werent predicted to slip so far and be impacted by injury and covid the way they have been.

More stellar commentary from you

West Coast wouldn't have been playing finals even if they weren't impacted by injury and covid like they have been, they have an ordinary aging list and need to rebuild.

 

[Hoops]

Yes I know we never know who the good teams are gonna be, and this isn't to say there is some unfair conspiracy, more just to point out a few realities of the fixture.

Just looking at the likely finalists, this is how many games they will play against other finalists.

Geelong- 7
Sydney- 7
Melbourne- 10
Collingwood- 9
Carlton- 10
Fremantle- 9
Richmond- 8
Brisbane- 8

When we are talking a game or percentage between home finals and not, the above extra games are significant. The other huge outlier this year are the two worst teams being considerably worse than the rest of the comp. This is how many times the finalist play the free kicks West Coast and North (am aware Richmond and Collingwood have lost to these teams, but come on, seriously, they have been woeful all year)

Geelong -4
Sydney -3
Melbourne -2
Collingwood -2
Carlton -2
Fremantle -3
Richmond -3
Brisbane -2

So I guess the biggest discrepancy here is Melbourne play 3 more games against finalists than Geelong and the Cats get 2 extra games against the easy beats. Not saying the cats are phonies, but that is an unbelievable advantage over a 22 game season which I have heard pretty much nothing about. Wouldn't be ruling the Dees out yet.

So what do you do about it? 18 clubs does not go into a 22 game season which means some teams are going to play moree against finalist than others and no-one knows who those teams may be

 

[PhatBoy]

West Coast wouldn't have been playing finals even if they weren't impacted by injury and covid like they have been, they have an ordinary aging list and need to rebuild.

So after finishing 9th last year the AFL should have known they’d go 2-18.

Right.

Is there literally any other excuse you could make for your own team not being as good as others. Like literally anything.

 

[PhatBoy]

They could have just given us 11 home games I guess and made it fairer to us.

 

[BuddyHawk]

Geelong's fixture has been easier than some of their fellow finalists, but this is primarily due to the Bulldogs and Port (who they've both played twice) being worse than expected. Virtually no-one would have predicted one - or potentially both - of those teams would have missed the 8.

At the end of the day, a 22-round season for an 18-team comp is always going to produce some fixture anomalies. Having finals at the end of it all, however, still ensures that the best team usually wins the flag. The Cats will need to beat 3 quality teams in September to get the chocolates, so will ultimately have as challenging a path as most previous premiers.

 

[PhatBoy]

Geelong's fixture has been easier than some of their fellow finalists, but this is primarily due to the Bulldogs and Port (who they've both played twice) being worse than expected. Virtually no-one would have predicted one - or potentially both - of those teams would have missed the 8.

At the end of the day, a 22-round season for an 18-team comp is always going to produce some fixture anomalies. Having finals at the end of it all, however, still ensures that the best team usually wins the flag. The Cats will need to beat 3 quality teams in September to get the chocolates, so will ultimately have as challenging a path as most previous premiers.

Reality and common sense has no place in a discussion like this.

Take your rationality elsewhere

 

[Hoops]

Plus the cats fail to play Brisbane in Brisbane or Fremantle in Perth this season. Luckiest fixture ever.

Well I guess it does come down to luck. But fixturing interstate games doesn't, and this is how Geelong compares to say Collingwood in interstate away games not including finals over the years

	Geelong	Collingwood
SA	42​	35​
WA	45​	35​
NSW/ACT	47​	45​
Qld	34​	38​
Tas	3​	0​

Lets leave Tassie to the side as that would be V a Victorian team. Above shows that Geelong has played interstate 168 times v Collingwood 153 times. The AFL certainly have their favourites.

 

[PJays]

Geelong's fixture has been easier than some of their fellow finalists, but this is primarily due to the Bulldogs and Port (who they've both played twice) being worse than expected.

Yes, and West Coast being massively worse than expected too.

Meanwhile a team like St Kilda was disadvantaged because one of their double opponents unexpectedly rose up the ladder- Fremantle. Another, Sydney, were a top 6 Home and Away team and everyone expected would be a top 6 team again, but were rated middle 6 after finishing 15-7 and losing an elimination final by a point to the 11-1-10 GWS.

Basically Geelong got very lucky with double up opponents and St Kilda got very unlucky. Giving Geelong, essentially a 2 win head start on St Kilda based purely on opponents faced.

And of course, having 9 games at KP while St Kilda has less advantage at Marvel and sells a home game to Cairns (which they lost by a point after kicking 4.18 in humid conditions) means Geelong has about another 1-2 wins advantage based on home ground advantage. So Geelong will probably finish 6 wins ahead of St Kilda but statistically you can reasonably attribute 3 or 4 wins to playing easier opposition and the Kardinia Park advantage.

This easy fixture and the KP advantage, along with Geelong's long-standing poor finals record are the reasons I don't agree with the bookies assessment of them as short priced favourites.

Unless the AFL brings in a floating fixture and determines double opponents a few weeks before the final 5 rounds, these discrepancies with double opponents will always occur. But that's probably not a pragmatic suggestion and unlikely to happen.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Not fair to base it off how sides are performing this year

To be truly fair, Geelong would have played the other top 6 sides from 2021 twice (10 games) and the middle/bottom 12 sides once only.

To include interstate sides, you have one 'rivalry side'... ie WC v Freo twice regardless on 'conference'

So Geelong should be facing 4 of the top 6 from last year at a minimum They ended up with Bulldogs (2nd) Port (4rd) West Coast (9th) St Kilda (10th) and North Melb (18th)

So yes an easier fixture. They should be playing 4 of Melb/Port/Brisbane/Dogs/Sydney Twice and maybe Richmond as their 'rival'

 

[Tiger2709]

Well I guess it does come down to luck. But fixturing interstate games doesn't, and this is how Geelong compares to say Collingwood in interstate away games not including finals over the years

	Geelong	Collingwood
SA	42​	35​
WA	45​	35​
NSW/ACT	47​	45​
Qld	34​	38​
Tas	3​	0​

Lets leave Tassie to the side as that would be V a Victorian team. Above shows that Geelong has played interstate 168 times v Collingwood 153 times. The AFL certainly have their favourites.

Money is the AFL's biggest favourite all these other issue could be resolved if not for the money.

It really is time to sort out a way to make the draw fair for all every year, surely the most unbalanced sporting competition in the World?

 

[Plugger35]

So after finishing 9th last year the AFL should have known they’d go 2-18.

Right.

Is there literally any other excuse you could make for your own team not being as good as others. Like literally anything.

They may not have known they'd go 2-18 but they should have known West Coast would slide further and not play finals, other than West Coast supporters I don't think there would've been anyone tipping them to play finals this year regardless of how much they were affected by injuries or covid.

As for St Kilda we may not be as good as other teams but we would still have more chance of playing finals if we played West Coast twice like Geelong.

 

[PhatBoy]

They may not have known they'd go 2-18 but they should have known West Coast would slide further and not play finals, other than West Coast supporters I don't think there would've been anyone tipping them to play finals this year regardless of how much they were affected by injuries or covid.

As for St Kilda we may not be as good as other teams but we would still have more chance of playing finals if we played West Coast twice like Geelong.

If you are deserving of your place you’ll beat the teams you play.


The supporter base of this sport has an excuse level like nothing I’ve ever seen.

Teams in the NRL can buy whoever they like but they can’t be s**t and just be handed good players. They also have their existing good players plundered by other sides but no one ever kicks up the sort of fuss the likes of you do Plugger.

You literally get a gold plated reward in this league for being terrible, plus the extra reward generally when you’re shithouse of having a kind draw in theory the following season.

But no that’s not good enough.

The teams who are good enough to buck the equalisation measures and not rely on on an AFL handout each year at draft time, the teams that scout better than others and try and compete no matter the circumstances, they’re the ones kissed on the dick because once a decade they might get a slightly easier draw than they get every other year, and even then it only becomes apparent that it is slightly easier after a whole bunch of things happen that the AFL had no way to predict.