Analysis The missing piece up forward - hurt factor!

[John Who]

The first 3 rounds have produced some seriously confusing contrasting games with one shiny gold medal performance and 2 pile of crud!

After taken the time to get back my frustrations and sanity, I think I’ve found the missing piece that is now (2019) compared with our forward setup 2 years ago - hurt factor ie. the willingness/capacity of our forwards to actually hurt our opposition.

Let’s look at the 2 forwards that have left from our supreme forward line in 2017:

Charlie Cameron - express pace, elite defensive pressure AND the ability to bump and tackle resulting in opposition pain!

Mitch McGovern - excellent pace (relative to height), very good defensive pressure, sticky hands AND the ability to crash into packs resulting in opposition pain!

A quick look in their 2 current replacements in Murphy and Jones: both excellent pace and very good defensive pressure, both good tacklers, both go at it hard when they need to chase/tackle. However, they both don’t seem to be aggressive with their bumps, and being smallish types, their tackles wouldn’t have that much hurt factor for their opposition.

Looking at our 3 main forwards in Tex, Jenkins and Lynch, none of them are the type to crash into packs regularly, and none are regularly bumping/bruising their opponents!

The obvious thing to conclude is....bring back the Fog! Or...bring in anyone that can cause opposition bruises regularly! Give some fear of the unknown in our opponents’ minds!

 

[spexau]

It's more our bigs than smalls. I've seen Murph dish out a few big bumps in his short tenure. Chayce hasn't had enough time to pass judgement but isn't scared of getting his hands dirty.

 

[jackster83]

One of Tex/Jenkins needs to go. It's painfully obvious to all except our selectors.

 

[Mike Smyth]

I reckon bruise free Lynch has been a very lucky man to be allowed to play like he has.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

It's more our bigs than smalls. I've seen Murph dish out a few big bumps in his short tenure. Chayce hasn't had enough time to pass judgement but isn't scared of getting his hands dirty.

Fog for Tex...prove to Don you should never play full back again. Happened in my kids team on the weekend, last years FB given a shot at FF and FMD I've never seen a kid more motivated to perform!!

Stengle in...given Betts apparent closeness with him, i think this would help the senior partner lift once more as well as providing a real scoring threat which we deperately need more of.

Greenwood/Sloane rotating through.

Davis in as the hybrid forward rotating through (starts on bench). Adds pace, X factor, marking ability but likely lowish disposal count...essentially McGovern.

Murphy back pocket and one of the unskilled spuds can go to the B's.

Jones to the wing with his pace, skill, decision making. He's blue chip, he brings energy and puts speed in the game...don't waste him in a forward pocket.

Jenkins given an almighty rocket. If ROB still spudding in 2-3 weeks JJ might have to put his big boy pants on and play ruck.

 

[spexau]

Fog for Tex...prove to Don you should never play full back again. Happened in my kids team on the weekend, last years FB given a shot at FF and FMD I've never seen a kid more motivated to perform!!

Stengle in...given Betts apparent closeness with him, i think this would help the senior partner lift once more as well as providing a real scoring threat which we deperately need more of.

Greenwood/Sloane rotating through.

Davis in as the hybrid forward rotating through (starts on bench). Adds pace, X factor, marking ability but likely lowish disposal count...essentially McGovern.

Murphy back pocket and one of the unskilled spuds can go to the B's.

Jones to the wing with his pace, skill, decision making. He's blue chip, he brings energy and puts speed in the game...don't waste him in a forward pocket.

Jenkins given an almighty rocket. If ROB still spudding in 2-3 weeks JJ might have to put his big boy pants on and play ruck.

TBH I think one of our worst traits is inflexibility. We have 6 forwards that play forward. I'd love to see us drop a couple of specialist forwards and bring in some more mids. Let guys like Sloane, Crouches, Gibbs, etc rotate through the forward line instead. I watch other teams throw guys around on the wings and in the middle or into the contest and we stick to our structures and the defenders get to mind 1 or 2 players a game and are never tested by having to play on multiple types. I'd love to see Tex thrown on ball every so often.. but alas..

 

[Crow_Magnon]

I think we need to take a leaf out of WCE's structure. The 6/6/6 model suits them to a tee. They've got great intercept marks down back, solid midfield and some dash and skill / x-factor (likes of Petrucelle and Liam Ryan) across the wings and flanks, then Kennedy, Darling and the new young bloke up forward who can all take a grab. We need a real shake-up for our predictable forward-line, and our one-paced midfield. Back in the young guys (as per the LeftFist's comments above).

 

[MRB37]

You replace Tex, JJ and Betts and you'll get exactly the same results. Our methods of moving the ball into the 50 is what is cooked.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

It's not missing pieces that are the problem. It's structure/game plan. Last week nearly every time there was a forward entry to JJ he was behind his opponent, not to mention that pathetic hand ball to Lynch that went out of bounds. I think we still have the players up there to kick a winning score but their entire method has to change drastically if it is to work.
(I'm talking to you Ben Hart!!).

 

[marty36]

The first 3 rounds have produced some seriously confusing contrasting games with one shiny gold medal performance and 2 pile of crud!

After taken the time to get back my frustrations and sanity, I think I’ve found the missing piece that is now (2019) compared with our forward setup 2 years ago - hurt factor ie. the willingness/capacity of our forwards to actually hurt our opposition.

Let’s look at the 2 forwards that have left from our supreme forward line in 2017:

Charlie Cameron - express pace, elite defensive pressure AND the ability to bump and tackle resulting in opposition pain!

Mitch McGovern - excellent pace (relative to height), very good defensive pressure, sticky hands AND the ability to crash into packs resulting in opposition pain!

A quick look in their 2 current replacements in Murphy and Jones: both excellent pace and very good defensive pressure, both good tacklers, both go at it hard when they need to chase/tackle. However, they both don’t seem to be aggressive with their bumps, and being smallish types, their tackles wouldn’t have that much hurt factor for their opposition.

Looking at our 3 main forwards in Tex, Jenkins and Lynch, none of them are the type to crash into packs regularly, and none are regularly bumping/bruising their opponents!

The obvious thing to conclude is....bring back the Fog! Or...bring in anyone that can cause opposition bruises regularly! Give some fear of the unknown in our opponents’ minds!

IN 2017 as you are comparing to, Cameron should have been dropped going into the finals Gov was a cameo type player, the strength of that forward line was clearly lynch's ability to run and lead up the ground, Texs ability to command the ball and be so dominating which was why he was voted the best captain and Betts was a super freak kicking them from anywhere and JJ did his part

Tex, Betts and Lynch were the main three, all have fallen of the cliff, have we got ready made replacements unfortunately not

 

[John Who]

It's more our bigs than smalls. I've seen Murph dish out a few big bumps in his short tenure. Chayce hasn't had enough time to pass judgement but isn't scared of getting his hands dirty.

I'm not saying our current smalls are afraid of the heavy hits. More the point that their heavy hits are not too concerning for our opponents. The Cameron bumps and tackles appear more damaging (he recently clobbered a Port player, making that player out of action for 1 quarter), and McGovern jumping into opposition's backs and heads are more fear-inducing to their opponents, in my opinion.

 

[John Who]

IN 2017 as you are comparing to, Cameron should have been dropped going into the finals Gov was a cameo type player, the strength of that forward line was clearly lynch's ability to run and lead up the ground, Texs ability to command the ball and be so dominating which was why he was voted the best captain and Betts was a super freak kicking them from anywhere and JJ did his part

Tex, Betts and Lynch were the main three, all have fallen of the cliff, have we got ready made replacements unfortunately not

You can argue that all 4 of our forward spearheads are down in form, but then you could also argue they're down in form due to the lack of presence by the other forwards. Either way, the question I'm posing is "what can we do about this situation?" or "what's the missing ingredient(s) in our forward line to make it click better?"

Over the preseason, a lot of us fans are talking about the need to inject speed and defensive pressure up forward- we sort of did that with Jones and Murphy. However, there seems to be something else that's missing - grunt/bruising factor. Maybe other aspects as well?

 

[baldandbroke]

Sorry ... posted this in the wrong thread accidentally - should be here.

We need players in the forward line that can take contested marks, There are few players on our entire list that can, and regularly do.

Its almost worth throwing Keath up there for a quarter to see if he can clunk a few.

I think we all know this ... Who on our list can take a contested mark against AFL level defenders?

I'd say Sloane is the number one guy I'd have as the permanent Forward ... but then I argued this for Dangerfield when he was on our list too. I get that he is a great mid, but we have other options that can do the midfield stuff - but no-one who can take that big mark (even bringing it to ground). He is a great kick and a great tackle.

Keath is doing really well in his current role, and we don't have anyone who can do what he is doing (now that we lost Doedee) so I'd leave him there.

Gallucci is known for being a good mark, he took some screamers as an under-age. Would like to see him use that some time soon in our forward 50m.

Himmelberg is basically what we need to develop. 198cm 95+ kgs. The kid turns 21 this year, so he has some time up his sleeve to develop still ... but some AFL games would surely speed up his development.

I agree with the sentiment that we need Murphy to be a defender, it's his DNA and he is never going to be a consistent contested mark.

I don't know if Fogarty is the guy to become the forward beast - like a De Goey - but I'm looking forward to watching his progression

Jenkins is the most annoying player to watch, he has all the tools - shows signs that he gets it - then just disappears for huge swaths of game-time. Maybe he needs the challenge of becoming a ruckman to motivate him? I say "become a ruckman" because he is not a ruckman's shadow right now. Grundy is a ruckman, Gawn is a ruckman, Ryder is a ruckman.

Betts tries to be too much in our forward line, and how long can we keep someone there who cannot kick over a jam tin? I love Eddie, love his work ethic, love what he brings ... we need to help him by playing quick and giving him a chance to show his insane skills and quick thinking. Structure kills him imo.

EDIT - And as was pointed out by others Greenwood is the obvious one I missed. I think we need him more in the middle though ... but maybe not.

 

[jackster83]

You can argue that all 4 of our forward spearheads are down in form, but then you could also argue they're down in form due to the lack of presence by the other forwards. Either way, the question I'm posing is "what can we do about this situation?" or "what's the missing ingredient(s) in our forward line to make it click better?"

Over the preseason, a lot of us fans are talking about the need to inject speed and defensive pressure up forward- we sort of did that with Jones and Murphy. However, there seems to be something else that's missing - grunt/bruising factor. Maybe other aspects as well?

Greenwood. He's just about the only X-factor player we have left (thanks Reid).

 

[Legz]

You replace Tex, JJ and Betts and you'll get exactly the same results. Our methods of moving the ball into the 50 is what is cooked.

There is no cohesion between the forwards & the midfield.

Tex, JJ & Lynch are all lead up forwards. They aren't stand & compete, or pack mark players.
Yet we keep trying to bomb it into the 50 & sit it on their heads.

We seem to refuse to lower our eyes and hit the target coming at the ball carrying.
This is compounded by the fact, our forwards don't want to lead up either. I saw on a number of occasions Tex & JJ leading back on the 45 degree angle.

I don't know what came first.... our forwards leading backwards, which has cause the need to bomb long, or we bombed it long forcing our forwards to lead there.
Either way, it doesn't work and needs to be addressed.

 

[CH Jazz]

one shiny gold medal performance

This concerns me. Syd game was every bit as poor as the other two.

But your point stands. So many flaws, hard to know where this stands up in the list of priorities.

 

[Brenton Davy]

You replace Tex, JJ and Betts and you'll get exactly the same results. Our methods of moving the ball into the 50 is what is cooked.

That's half the problem. Even when we win the centre break the entry is so rushed and scrappy the forwards are under pressure. Not saying the forwards are blameless, but they are only part of the problem.

 

[SellarStardom]

Honest question, does Himmelberg crash packs?

Here is a change up to consider, have Berg, JJ and Stengle at FF line with Tex, Betts and Gooch/Knighta along HF line. Lynch into a wing and Murphy to the back pocket.

The Berg swaps with a midfielder where needed having Sloane, Gibbs as a marking forward.

In general play Walker move up the ground and delivers into the forward 50 leaving marking targets of JJ and Berg. I would like Davis in there as a marking target but I can't see it. The other option is to bring in Davis rather than Berg.

But the club needs to get the players lowering their eyes, never bombing it and getting a few forwards up the ground to open the forward 50.

 

[MRB37]

There is no cohesion between the forwards & the midfield.

Tex, JJ & Lynch are all lead up forwards. They aren't stand & compete, or pack mark players.
Yet we keep trying to bomb it into the 50 & sit it on their heads.

We seem to refuse to lower our eyes and hit the target coming at the ball carrying.
This is compounded by the fact, our forwards don't want to lead up either. I saw on a number of occasions Tex & JJ leading back on the 45 degree angle.

I don't know what came first.... our forwards leading backwards, which has cause the need to bomb long, or we bombed it long forcing our forwards to lead there.
Either way, it doesn't work and needs to be addressed.

It happened so often in the SANFL last week it has to be by instruction. I saw Stengle leading and he was ignored a few times because the player went to the pack. Half the problem in us hugging the boundary line too is if we wanted to hit those leads you have to kick 45-60 degrees across the field and if you fluff it up the entire corridor is wide open and all the defenders are out of position. I reckon after awhile the forwards get so tired of the leads not being honoured they just give up and go "OK, bomb it in then"

The way we are playing is so scared and safe, we just want the safety of the boundary line at all times and not like what Pyke was doing at all when he first started.

 

[BRL121]

Honest question, does Himmelberg crash packs?

Here is a change up to consider, have Berg, JJ and Stengle at FF line with Tex, Betts and Gooch/Knighta along HF line. Lynch into a wing and Murphy to the back pocket.

The Berg swaps with a midfielder where needed having Sloane, Gibbs as a marking forward.

In general play Walker move up the ground and delivers into the forward 50 leaving marking targets of JJ and Berg. I would like Davis in there as a marking target but I can't see it. The other option is to bring in Davis rather than Berg.

But the club needs to get the players lowering their eyes, never bombing it and getting a few forwards up the ground to open the forward 50.

Only from watching last week's telecast, he seemed to compete vigorously for most balls, but not so successfully. I don't know that "crash" is the right word: he was all arms and legs, with a very good reach. He certainly was not lazy and ball-watching. To me, he showed good signs for the future, but he needs to clunk a few marks.

 

[marty36]

You can argue that all 4 of our forward spearheads are down in form, but then you could also argue they're down in form due to the lack of presence by the other forwards. Either way, the question I'm posing is "what can we do about this situation?" or "what's the missing ingredient(s) in our forward line to make it click better?"

Over the preseason, a lot of us fans are talking about the need to inject speed and defensive pressure up forward- we sort of did that with Jones and Murphy. However, there seems to be something else that's missing - grunt/bruising factor. Maybe other aspects as well?

No question they are down on form, they were in 2018 aswell except JJ, yes the other two or three forwards used contribute so I suppose you could add douglas to that.

Maybe its the combination of players but you simply cant replace quality with rookies, theres not a lot you can do about replacing players of betts and Tex who are on $750K plus with some bloke on $200K you would like Fog to move in but he will have a couple of years of inconsistency at his age, to expect anything else is ridiculous.

 

[GrommoT]

It's not missing pieces that are the problem. It's structure/game plan. Last week nearly every time there was a forward entry to JJ he was behind his opponent, not to mention that pathetic hand ball to Lynch that went out of bounds. I think we still have the players up there to kick a winning score but their entire method has to change drastically if it is to work.
(I'm talking to you Ben Hart!!).

I've been thinking that we have been kicking long and high too often when entering the F50 - the problem is this leads to too much hang time of the ball and before the ball lands.

Any forward of ours who was in the clear or has a 1-on-1 to beat when the ball is kicked gets more opposition players bearing down on him by the time the ball gets there.

Don't mean to pick on Tex (plenty others do this) but the pix below shows him getting the ball just outside our F50 and despite the 3 team mates in good nearby positions, Tex kicks it long to JJ who was 1-on-1 in the goal square. As Tex kicks the long, high ball to JJ, Duckwood is about 20m away from the goal square but the hang time of the ball allows Duckwood to get to the goal square to make it a 2-on-1 against JJ.

[click to enlarge]

If the kick was long, strong, low and accurate (which we have done occaionally), it might have got to JJ much quicker to give him a better chance.

We also often do the long, high quick often coming out of defence and the long ball hang time let's the opposition get to our players and make taking a mark very difficult. This isn't good even if we have strong markers in out list (which we don't really).

Should we put away the long, high kick pass except occasionally?

 

[SellarStardom]

I've been thinking that we have been kicking long and high too often when entering the F50 - the problem is this leads to too much hang time of the ball and before the ball lands.

Any forward of ours who was in the clear or has a 1-on-1 to beat when the ball is kicked gets more opposition players bearing down on him by the time the ball gets there.

Don't mean to pick on Tex (plenty others do this) but the pix below shows him getting the ball just outside our F50 and despite the 3 team mates in good nearby positions, Tex kicks it long to JJ who was 1-on-1 in the goal square. As Tex kicks the long, high ball to JJ, Duckwood is about 20m away from the goal square but the hang time of the ball allows Duckwood to get to the goal square to make it a 2-on-1 against JJ.

[click to enlarge]

If the kick was long, strong, low and accurate (which we have done occaionally), it might have got to JJ much quicker to give him a better chance.

We also often do the long, high quick often coming out of defence and the long ball hang time let's the opposition get to our players and make taking a mark very difficult. This isn't good even if we have strong markers in out list (which we don't really).

Should we put away the long, high kick pass except occasionally?

Great example.
Our forwards are in poor form and Lynch should be pushed up to the wing whilst Seeds out if the side, but it's the delivery that is all wrong. Bomb it long is dead, they need to think through the forward movements to create space and spot up the mid sized guys

 

[Cap]

Wasn't the completely unfit McAdam going to be the hurt factor?

Stengle looks on, still reckon they need to get Fog up forward somehow.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

I've been thinking that we have been kicking long and high too often when entering the F50 - the problem is this leads to too much hang time of the ball and before the ball lands.

Any forward of ours who was in the clear or has a 1-on-1 to beat when the ball is kicked gets more opposition players bearing down on him by the time the ball gets there.

Don't mean to pick on Tex (plenty others do this) but the pix below shows him getting the ball just outside our F50 and despite the 3 team mates in good nearby positions, Tex kicks it long to JJ who was 1-on-1 in the goal square. As Tex kicks the long, high ball to JJ, Duckwood is about 20m away from the goal square but the hang time of the ball allows Duckwood to get to the goal square to make it a 2-on-1 against JJ.

[click to enlarge]

If the kick was long, strong, low and accurate (which we have done occaionally), it might have got to JJ much quicker to give him a better chance.

We also often do the long, high quick often coming out of defence and the long ball hang time let's the opposition get to our players and make taking a mark very difficult. This isn't good even if we have strong markers in out list (which we don't really).

Should we put away the long, high kick pass except occasionally?

Good post. Sometimes good teams put so much pressure on that you are forced to kick that long ball into the forward line hoping for a contested mark. (Hawthorn game). However in the Geelong match there seemed to be so many times that we had plenty of time to execute a quality forward entry but our entire structure was crap, hence my comments about JJ.
I just saw Ben Hart on the news addressing this problem and gees....... he didn't fill me with any confidence that he could fix this issue. I hope I'm wrong.