Play Nice The NM Devils Chessboard thread.

[Chadwiko]

Also real talk mate - any single thing produced by an Anglophone institute/think tank/media on this isn't worth a pinch of s**t.

Its all just lies and propaganda.

As opposed to the wholesome and trustworthy Russian narratives?

 

[Del191229]

As opposed to the wholesome and trustworthy Russian narratives?

You're such a simple child, who can only think in terms of black and white.

I wouldn't be placing much trust in anything official from the Russians either.

 

[Chadwiko]

You're such a simple child, who can only think in terms of black and white.

That is hilarious considering you literally just posted this;

Also real talk mate - any single thing produced by an Anglophone institute/think tank/media on this isn't worth a pinch of s**t.

 

[ferball]

It is possible that Wagner has outlived its usefulness and this is part of an operation to rein it in, but I think that highly unlikely. First and foremost, you don't do that while the war is still on and secondly, its too valuable bringing in the ca$$$$h to completely wind up like this.

This seems obvious to me.

Less than a week after the Russians say they'll hit Kiv with missiles if missiles hit Crimea this comes out. It honestly doesn't pass the smell test for me and if I was a Ukrainian military boss I'd be very sus on everything right now.

 

[Ichiro #51]

Most likely a ‘Night of the long knives’ scenario imo. For whatever reason Putin wants to be rid of Prigozhin and the situation has been manipulated to achieve that.

 

[Chadwiko]

Most likely a ‘Night of the long knives’ scenario imo. For whatever reason Putin wants to be rid of Prigozhin and the situation has been manipulated to achieve that.

Eh. I think occam's razor applies here. Looking for overly complicated conspiracies to explain this situation ignores the simplest likelihood;

Wagner group wants more control over the conflict, and therefore more money. I think Prigozhin has genuine grievances against the Russian military leadership and saw an opportunity to make a move to his own personal advantage.

 

[Chadwiko]

Another reason I seriously seriously doubt this was anything remotely close to a coordinated ploy by Russia; this news has absolutely tanked their stock market instantly;

 

[ferball]

RE: those recent videos in Rostov...

Likelihood: So miniscule as to be laughable.

What do those videos show?

Besides less than 100 men and a few military vehicles moving around. That's all.

Doesn't matter what side:

1. Don't believe anything they tell you.

2. Don't believe anything they tell you isn't being told to you for some other reason.

If this turns out to be true and Ukraine does nothing the situation hasn't changed very much. Throughout history military leaders have made examples of their subordinates and minor shit like this has happened.

If it turns out to be false and Ukraine doesn't act then nothing much has changed either.

But if it turns out to be false and Ukraine acts on that info they've made themselves vulnerable on the basis of false info released by their enemy. If that's the case they've done exactly what their enemy wanted them to and would have put themselves in a vulnerable position to do it.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Eh. I think occam's razor applies here. Looking for overly complicated conspiracies to explain this situation ignores the simplest likelihood;

Wagner group wants more control over the conflict, and therefore more money. I think Prigozhin has genuine grievances against the Russian military leadership and saw an opportunity to make a move to his own personal advantage.

Decent theory as Rostov is leverage.

See and wait first. A lot to play out.

Most likely a ‘Night of the long knives’ scenario imo. For whatever reason Putin wants to be rid of Prigozhin and the situation has been manipulated to achieve that.

The night of the long knives was designed to win German political conservative and military support. Not sure Putin needs to manipulate anything as he already has control over most organs of the Russian state and military.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

 

[ferball]

Eh. I think occam's razor applies here. Looking for overly complicated conspiracies to explain this situation ignores the simplest likelihood;

Wagner group wants more control over the conflict, and therefore more money. I think Prigozhin has genuine grievances against the Russian military leadership and saw an opportunity to make a move to his own personal advantage.

If you're ever in a conflict don't believe anything your enemy tells you (and that's what is happening here, we're all being told this.)

Especially if you want it to be true cos its a difficult fight and you need an advantage, that is how cons work.

 

[Chadwiko]

What do those videos show?

They show:





Maybe time to start accepting this miiiight not be a planned Russian ploy.

 

[Del191229]

Australians won VCs fighting in the Arctic.

 

[Del191229]

What do those videos show?

Apparently mutineers and insurrectionists have taken over the military HQ of a key supply centre during wartime without a shot being fired.

Indeed everyone seems very calm about the whole thing.

This is just likely how it went down in 1917 hey.

 

[ferball]

They show:





Maybe time to start accepting this miiiight not be a planned Russian ploy.

I don't care one way or the other. A fight between two barbaric racist states means nothing to me.

But if I was a Ukrainian military leader no way I'd be believing this without actual evidence worth trusting and I haven't seen any of that yet. At this point the videos show soldiers posing and a journo repeating what one soldier told them.

That's all. No one has even fired a weapon yet and they're calling it an attempted coup.

 

[Chadwiko]

Apparently mutineers and insurrectionists have taken over the military HQ of a key supply centre during wartime without a shot being fired.

Indeed everyone seems very calm about the whole thing.

This is just likely how it went down in 1917 hey.

You are currently floating somewhere between #2 and #3. Will we see you get to #4 soon, do you think?

1. That didn't happen.
2. And if it did, it was probably a psyop.
3. And if it wasnt, that's not a big deal.
4. And if it is a big deal, then it doesn't matter anyway.
5. And if it does matter, I never said otherwise.
6. And if I did, I'll shift the goalposts.

 

[Chadwiko]

That's all. No one has even fired a weapon yet and they're calling it an attempted coup.

Well, to be fair, the Wagner group claims to have downed a helicopter and defeated several other "hard targets".

But, grain of salt to be sure. I agree with you on that.

 

[ferball]

Apparently mutineers and insurrectionists have taken over the military HQ of a key supply centre during wartime without a shot being fired.

Indeed everyone seems very calm about the whole thing.

This is just likely how it went down in 1917 hey.

The no gunfire thing is a bit of a give away at this point. People standing around smiling and videoing it on their phones is another imo.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Important to remember, a lot of confused and unverified reporting. I have posted videos for the casual thread viewer to make up their minds.

 

[Chadwiko]

The no gunfire thing is a bit of a give away at this point. People standing around smiling and videoing it on their phones is another imo.

Well while we're on the topic of Putin making 300IQ moves; having his Army shoot and kill fellow Russians would massively undercut public morale and support for the ongoing conflict, and potentially destabalise the cohesion of the military leaders around him.

So I'm not surprised.

 

[Ichiro #51]

Decent theory as Rostov is leverage.

See and wait first. A lot to play out.

The night of the long knives was designed to win German political conservative and military support. Not sure Putin needs to manipulate anything as he already has control over most organs of the Russian state and military.

Was it not essentially an opportunity for a ‘re-brand’, the thuggish SD into the (coughs) respectable SS? I admit to having only limited knowledge and understanding though. I think this is happening because Putin wants it to happen. Prigozhin out and Wagner re-branded.

 

[ferball]

Well, to be fair, the Wagner group claims to have downed a helicopter and defeated several other "hard targets".

But, grain of salt to be sure. I agree with you on that.

There's no evidence of that yet.

Like I said, I'm not invested in what happens here at all, except for the bit about it not escalating to a nuclear conflict. That would be ****ed.

But it honestly this seems too perfect. Like its a massive feint to suck Ukraine into attacking again when it seems all they're doing is smashing their troops and equipment against a well prepared position. You should always look to take advantage of your enemies confusion in wartime and alot of time and energy is devoted to manipulating the other sides perception of events simply to cause confusion.

Look at the time we're spending analysing this.

You can bet Ukraine and Western intelligence sources are also dedicating to resources to finding out what's happening as well. Those resources would have been used on preparation for the next phase of that offensive that's slowed or stopped, but now are being used to find out what this means and if it has any bearing on what they do next. Which means they have less resources to use on planning what they do next and if there is disagreement in the Ukrainian camp about what's happening that's another layer of benefit to the Russians.

The time taken to solve that disagreement is another resource being used and if there is lingering disagreement over it after a decision gets made then that's more benefit to the Russians as well because any disunity disadvantages Ukraine.

It might be exactly what it seems on the surface but there is alot of potential benefit to the Russians if it isn't.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Was it not essentially an opportunity for a ‘re-brand’, the thuggish SD into the (coughs) respectable SS? I admit to having only limited knowledge and understanding though. I think this is happening because Putin wants it to happen. Prigozhin out and Wagner re-branded.

Himmler was definitely behind the curtin on drawing up the lists and his SS men were used, but the SD, or Gestapo, were primarily an intelligence group with very little military power themselves. The SS prior to 1934 were seen as those protecting order in the party and stopping the SA brownshirts from their street battles, which were negatively affecting broader electoral and political support. I.e. The Stennes putsch.

As I said, a lot to play out and a lot of confusion.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

A technical is basically an adapted civilian vehicle with a heavy machine gun or rocket launcher on the back of it.

 

[ferball]

Important to remember, a lot of confused and unverified reporting. I have posted videos for the casual thread viewer to make up their minds.

More uncertainties than answers at this time. Ukraine is certain, however, to exploit this on the battlefield and in their strategic influence operations.

This is exactly what I'm talking about.

If they think something is happening they'll try to exploit it. If they've been conned it will cost them. And they're the ones wioth their backs to the wall, they can least afford to lose equipment and troops if they make a mistake.