The Official John Meesen Thread

[Portia]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

No No No!

they were not "considered" to be any such things. we all speculate, but we do not know what they were really "considered" to go at.

Burgatron and Footydraft 2004 phantoms.

Now obviously, no-one can absolutely know except a complete club insider. But thats OK, because I'm only bringing this up to show a trend, not to make a point that is empirically proven.

I am suggesting that it is quite possible that the Crows were out of step with the rest on the AFL in how highly they rated ruckmen in the 2004 draft. I present the above links as support. *They were in line with what the amateurs thought, but not the other AFL clubs.

what we know is that the people who matter did not think Wood a top 10 pick, certainly did not think deluca to be a top 10, same with Maric.

Mmm yes, but to counter that point, the only thing we know empirically is that Adelaide thought Meesen was worth a top 10 pick. We don't know that any other club did, yet I notice many people here speculating on the basis that they do.

So we need to decide, is this speculation or conclusions based on empirical fact?

*Edit: Inserted, as I realised my point was unclear.

 

[Portia]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

How does this equation work then Porthos?

Barry Brooks

Drafted by Port Adelaide - 15th overall 2001

Games played for Port: 0

Traded to St. Kilda for picks 6 and 31 in 2002

Familiar with the economic theories of supply and demand?

Yep. You only need one crazy buyer to get a good price. The trick is determining if you were the crazy buyer.

Also, pointing out an example of an untried ruckman being traded for an early pick, when that ruckman has gone on to tank as a player in such obvious fashion....well, that doesn't really support the case that a club trading for Meesen is less of a risk than drafting a Leuenberger.

 

[Gets!]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

Porthos why the hell would you care.

It's a nice day outside, go get some sun FFS.

 

[neddy36]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

Yep. You only need one crazy buyer to get a good price. The trick is determining if you were the crazy buyer.

Also, pointing out an example of an untried ruckman being traded for an early pick, when that ruckman has gone on to tank as a player in such obvious fashion....well, that doesn't really support the case that a club trading for Meesen is less of a risk than drafting a Leuenberger.

I must say Port did quite well from that trade. I can only hope Adelaide get a deal half as good for Meesen, if he doesn't re-sign.

 

[earlsta]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

I really hope he re-signs. A number #8 ruckmen playing for us after 2 years developing is a bonus, better than any pick this year I believe.

Please AFC, don't let him go.
I noticed A. Monfries was taken at #13 by the bombers in that draft..his from Adelaide isn't he? Damn he would have been good in a crows outfit.

 

[jmorg1]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

Porthos why the hell would you care.

It's a nice day outside, go get some sun FFS.

Go easy on him. He's just taking a break from ogling at his collection of X-rated pictures of Rucci.

 

[GoSarge]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

BTW, wood looks like a pretty decent player at the lions.

And possibly Meese would be looking ok aswell. Its all about opportunities. With Clarke retiring (supposedly) and Hudson's form after his come back uncertain, there lay great opportunities for Meese and Maric if they get through a tough pre season.

 

[GoSarge]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

I didn't realise that ruckmen doing nothing automatically are worth so much more than any other player doing nothing.

Lets not go in to the debate of big guys taking longer to develop.

As for doing nothing ? He's leading the rucks for Norwood, and doing an admirable job, at the age of 20. In the last 6 weeks he's been posting some pretty decent numbers aswell.

Porthos, you're half intelligent, that was a silly comment dont you think ?

 

[Crow-mo]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

Burgatron and Footydraft 2004 phantoms.

are you for real, I mean you're not serious are you?

explain to me how either of these reflect the real value of the players? or can even be thought of as even close?

what's more likely, BF arseclown says player X, will go top 10. player X actually goes pick 40, and you seriously expect anyone to think they were really a top 10 player? c'mon.

Now obviously, no-one can absolutely know except a complete club insider. But thats OK, because I'm only bringing this up to show a trend, not to make a point that is empirically proven.

which trend is this?

I am suggesting that it is quite possible that the Crows were out of step with the rest on the AFL in how highly they rated ruckmen in the 2004 draft.

I am suggesting you wouldn't have the faintest clue about the above statement. how could you?

I present the above links as support. *They were in line with what the amateurs thought, but not the other AFL clubs.

exactly. it's amazing you'd even try to present the uninformed views of amateurs as some sort validating proof of the opinions of the informed professional. that's just plain crazy.

Mmm yes, but to counter that point, the only thing we know empirically is that Adelaide thought Meesen was worth a top 10 pick. We don't know that any other club did, yet I notice many people here speculating on the basis that they do.

but we only need one club. that is worth the opinions of a squillion internet suppositions. that is real proof. suggest you make yourself familiar with what is, and isn't, real proof.

your flawed line of logic suggests that only 1 club thought luke hodge a top 10 pick, perhaps he would've slid to number 60? well we don't need to speculate, the market supplied us with proof.

So we need to decide, is this speculation or conclusions based on empirical fact?

*Edit: Inserted, as I realised my point was unclear.

sorry, dude I think your point is still unclear.

 

[Crow-mo]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

well, that doesn't really support the case that a club trading for Meesen is less of a risk than drafting a Leuenberger.

is it your belief that the risk is equal?

 

[Portia]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

Lets not go in to the debate of big guys taking longer to develop.

OK

As for doing nothing ? He's leading the rucks for Norwood, and doing an admirable job, at the age of 20. In the last 6 weeks he's been posting some pretty decent numbers aswell.

Yeah well Jordan Russell hasn't been spending all his time in the boozer himself.

Porthos, you're half intelligent, that was a silly comment dont you think ?

It was a simplified, slightly inaccurate comment used to make a point to respond to another simplified and slightly inaccurate comment. You did read the post it was in reply to, right?

 

[Portia]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

exactly. it's amazing you'd even try to present the uninformed views of amateurs as some sort validating proof of the opinions of the informed professional. that's just plain crazy.

Cool, because thats exactly what I'm not doing.

I'm pointing out that the Crows drafting of Meesen was much more in line with the amateurs than the opinions of every other AFL club in relation to the other rucks. I am in fact comparing the actual Crows' drafting to the amateur rating, and suggesting that maybe the 15 other AFL clubs have a significantly lower opinion of the 2004 rucks than the Crows did.

This is relevant as it pertains to Meesen holding his value through two years without a senior game. Did he ever have that value to the other AFL clubs to begin with?

I'll also point out that you went out of your way to ignore the salient point in post; that I am not trying to prove anything empirically to be the case, I am speculating, the same as everyone else in this thread. I am damn sure I said that enough times for that to be bloody clear. Go count uses of the word `empirically' and read the paragraphs they're in.

 

[Portia]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

is it your belief that the risk is equal?

The risk is the risk.

One thing I am sure of though, is that the Crows know more about Meesen than any potential trade partner does, whereas everyone knows about as much concerning Leuenberger...and possibly the WA clubs for example may know more.

Drafting Leuenberger is obviously a risk, but there are a couple of differences.

1) There is also a chance he will be a guy that plays from being a rookie to be a 300 gamer. Meesen has already missed two years. Yeah, its a small chance, but with a rookie its still there.
2) No AFL club would be actively concealing Leuenberger's negative traits. Adelaide certainly could be with Meesen.
3) A lot of kids that want to change clubs due to lack of opportunities or homesickess actually suck, regardless of when they're drafted. An eager rookie is not a sulky Susan.

Assuming that Meesen and Leuenberger are about equal quality, its not hard to see why clubs prefer the draftee.

 

[GoSarge]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

Yeah well Jordan Russell hasn't been spending all his time in the boozer himself.

Agreed. I disagree with some of the harsh comments on him, although I do think that his worth isnt as high as his type are a dime a dozen. 2nd rounder - maybe, although I havent seen enough of him to really comment.

It was a simplified, slightly inaccurate comment used to make a point to respond to another simplified and slightly inaccurate comment. You did read the post it was in reply to, right?

Ok, I took that in the wrong context - so I take it back.

 

[GoSarge]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

The risk is the risk.

One thing I am sure of though, is that the Crows know more about Meesen than any potential trade partner does, whereas everyone knows about as much concerning Leuenberger...and possibly the WA clubs for example may know more.

Drafting Leuenberger is obviously a risk, but there are a couple of differences.

1) There is also a chance he will be a guy that plays from being a rookie to be a 300 gamer. Meesen has already missed two years. Yeah, its a small chance, but with a rookie its still there.
2) No AFL club would be actively concealing Leuenberger's negative traits. Adelaide certainly could be with Meesen.
3) A lot of kids that want to change clubs due to lack of opportunities or homesickess actually suck, regardless of when they're drafted. An eager rookie is not a sulky Susan.

Assuming that Meesen and Leuenberger are about equal quality, its not hard to see why clubs prefer the draftee.

Disagree. You're speculating - who knows what the clubs prefer? You make it sound like your 3 points are conclusive.

1) Agreed unlikely.
2) Very unlikely.
3) Conversely a lot of kids dont suck and are keen as mustard just to play AFL.

 

[Crow-mo]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

Cool, because thats exactly what I'm not doing.

I'm pointing out that the Crows drafting of Meesen was much more in line with the amateurs than the opinions of every other AFL club in relation to the other rucks.

you cannot and do not know this.

I am in fact comparing the actual Crows' drafting to the amateur rating, and suggesting that maybe the 15 other AFL clubs have a significantly lower opinion of the 2004 rucks than the Crows did.

you cannot and do not know this. I don't follow this line, as it barely qualifies as even making it up.

This is relevant as it pertains to Meesen holding his value through two years without a senior game. Did he ever have that value to the other AFL clubs to begin with?

ok, now we're clear. you are just making up an imaginary consensus.

I'll also point out that you went out of your way to ignore the salient point in post; that I am not trying to prove anything empirically to be the case, I am speculating, the same as everyone else in this thread. I am damn sure I said that enough times for that to be bloody clear. Go count uses of the word `empirically' and read the paragraphs they're in.

well, speculating is the higher end of your ambition. there isn't even a sound basis for your ideas. it is a random imaginary supposition.

fine. let's give it you - what if no one else rated him, and his selection is an anomaly? If that were true, and there is no possible reason to assume it was, then after 2 years his development to the point that we would want to keep him is another statistical anomaly.

what are the odds? that a bad player, no one wanted, is accidently a top 10 pick due to the inexplicable affectations of one market participant, and on top that suddenly discovers ability (by way of talent fairy?) and develops in accordance with expectations for a young top 10 pick ruckman?

or maybe, we should stop believing in fairies?

 

[Crow-mo]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

The risk is the risk.

One thing I am sure of though, is that the Crows know more about Meesen than any potential trade partner does,

agreed the crows know more of him than any other trade partner.

BUT every other club now knows more about Meesen than they did prior to his drafting.

whereas everyone knows about as much concerning Leuenberger...and possibly the WA clubs for example may know more.

AND all 16 clubs know a lot more about Messen that Leuenberger.

the risk is the risk, but in one case it's quantified and in the other it's all still unknown.

that is not similar.

Drafting Leuenberger is obviously a risk, but there are a couple of differences.

1) There is also a chance he will be a guy that plays from being a rookie to be a 300 gamer. Meesen has already missed two years. Yeah, its a small chance, but with a rookie its still there.

there is a chance, a completely unknown, unquantified chance. He could be fantastic, he could be nothing. he carries FULL DRAFT RISK. which is enormously high.

also Meesen has missed 2 years how?

2) No AFL club would be actively concealing Leuenberger's negative traits. Adelaide certainly could be with Meesen.

yes I agree, it was a diabolically sinister move from the AFC to force Norwood to play every game behind closed doors.

3) A lot of kids that want to change clubs due to lack of opportunities or homesickess actually suck, regardless of when they're drafted. An eager rookie is not a sulky Susan.

guys suck, because they suck. more rookies suck as a % than ordinary draftees.

Assuming that Meesen and Leuenberger are about equal quality, its not hard to see why clubs prefer the draftee.

completely false. your logic hasn't been thought through.

*IF* they are of the same quality (an assumption completely unstable BTW) a club would always go with the guy who has been in an AFL program because they know so much more about how he reacts and responds to the challenges of developing into an AFL player. they also have a chance to properly assess his talent, whereas they would only be guessing about the draftee.

you have just gotten confused by a general affectation for the new and different. that's fashion, not the way to run a football club.

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Re: What Will we Get For Meesen?

This thread is meaningless now ... Meeson re-signed with the AFC

Announced to the media soon. 110% sure.

Has signed a 1 year extension ... so yeah .. keep this thread open for next year lol

 

[Oh When the Saints]

John Meesen - What would the Crows take for him ??

The Saints need a ruckman; that is no secret.

Meesen is going to be a good player - what would Crows supporters judge his trade value to be ??

At the moment he is behind Biglands, Clarke (ret. soon), Hudson and Maric.

Pick 24 + Cain Ackland (who would be useful ruck backup for the Crows) ?

Pick 40 + Aaron Fiora/Troy Schwarze (Craig has a habit of turning okay players into stars) ?

 

[KUNG FU]

Re: John Meesen - What would the Crows take for him ??

Do you guys have Pav on your list? Or the #1 draft pick this year? (not suggesting that Meese is necessarily worth that, just saying they are what we are really interested in first and foremost)

If not, not interested.

He just re-signed with us for a year. We're gonna try to hold onto him with dear life. Unless our hand was forced, we'd want a stellar KPP or a quality draft pick for him at least. Will be a vital part of our team in the near future.

 

[KUNG FU]

Re: John Meesen - What would the Crows take for him ??

PS. Can't wait until Drummond sees this thread.

 

[-VC-]

Re: John Meesen - What would the Crows take for him ??

The Saints need a ruckman; that is no secret.

Meesen is going to be a good player - what would Crows supporters judge his trade value to be ??

At the moment he is behind Biglands, Clarke (ret. soon), Hudson and Maric.

Pick 24 + Cain Ackland (who would be useful ruck backup for the Crows) ?

Pick 40 + Aaron Fiora/Troy Schwarze (Craig has a habit of turning okay players into stars) ?

Meesen recently signed for one year and is a long term prospect. This sort of talk might be more appropriate at the end of next season because Meesen and Maric both signed one year deals this year.

 

[Punchy Bassett]

Re: John Meesen - What would the Crows take for him ??

The Saints need a ruckman; that is no secret.

Meesen is going to be a good player - what would Crows supporters judge his trade value to be ??

At the moment he is behind Biglands, Clarke (ret. soon), Hudson and Maric.

Pick 24 + Cain Ackland (who would be useful ruck backup for the Crows) ?

Pick 40 + Aaron Fiora/Troy Schwarze (Craig has a habit of turning okay players into stars) ?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHH

You are joking right?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Re: John Meesen - What would the Crows take for him ??

The Saints need a ruckman; that is no secret.

Meesen is going to be a good player - what would Crows supporters judge his trade value to be ??

At the moment he is behind Biglands, Clarke (ret. soon), Hudson and Maric.

Pick 24 + Cain Ackland (who would be useful ruck backup for the Crows) ?

Pick 40 + Aaron Fiora/Troy Schwarze (Craig has a habit of turning okay players into stars) ?

Not going to happen as he has just re-signed a new deal.

BTW, none of the players you named would interest the Crows.

 

[RoosterLad]

Re: John Meesen - What would the Crows take for him ??

Cain Ackland? No thanks!