Resource The Official SFA Match Simulation Process + General Sim Queries Thread

[Barrybran]

I’ve made my own league on there and had a mess around. It was good.

Did you manipulate the results?

 

[The Majestic]

Did you manipulate the results?

Nah, was no point.

 

[TRUMAN#1]

Literally none of these have any bearing on result, nor are they decided by the simmers.

Weather affects stats, but it's equal for both teams.

 

[grumbleguts]

If I'm cooking in my kitchen, and I have a soup and the instructions are to simmer for 10 minutes, and don't like the way it simmers, can I abuse the simmer and say it is a poor simmer. Just asking, because due to a typo in a contract with the devil, he has given me mastery of the entire universe for 20 minutes in exchange for my soup. So I want to make sure the simmer is good.

 

[Dinsdale]

What was the actual event that killed me in the Warriors v Bombers game?

 

[nobbyiscool]

I see the tribunal thread - how do reports/suspensions work?

Apologies if I missed it in my skim reading.

 

[Dingster]

I see the tribunal thread - how do reports/suspensions work?

Apologies if I missed it in my skim reading.

It's a function that exists in the sim that is regrettably turned off.

 

[Barrybran]

I see the tribunal thread - how do reports/suspensions work?

Apologies if I missed it in my skim reading.

Elton Johns Wig, you want this one?

 

[Falconista]

I see the tribunal thread - how do reports/suspensions work?

Apologies if I missed it in my skim reading.

There are no on-field suspensions, so you can go about flattening flogs at will. As Dingster says, suspensions for these incidents are built into the sim but the function is turned off.

The tribunal stuff is for admin/bookkeeping matters (team sheet errors, squad errors), generally these are discovered by serial_thrilla.

 

[serial_thrilla]

There are no on-field suspensions, so you can go about flattening flogs at will. As Dingster says, suspensions for these incidents are built into the sim but the function is turned off.

The tribunal stuff is for admin/bookkeeping matters (team sheet errors, squad errors), generally these are discovered by serial_thrilla.

 

[Pamcake1]

Hi Kennedy Parker can I ask a Rookie question please, as I don't understand what happened in the last game of round 17 Won vs Bom and I'd like to know if possible, as this also happened to me in a game at the start of the season. It has left me totally confused as to why or the reason it would happen.

In the first 2 minutes of the game I play and then nothing for the rest of the game, see below.
No mention of my name playing at all after the below and I'm not subbed off or taken away in an ambulance.
So could I ask here: what is happening and why does it happen please?:

Round 17 Won vs Bom

1 : .18 {lW} - Pamcake1 did enough to prevent a mark being taken.
1 : .22 {rW} - Pamcake1 slowing down the play.
1 : .26 {rHBF} - Handpass over the shoulder to dogs105.

 

[Cadsky]

Hi Kennedy Parker can I ask a Rookie question please, as I don't understand what happened in the last game of round 17 Won vs Bom and I'd like to know if possible, as this also happened to me in a game at the start of the season. It has left me totally confused as to why or the reason it would happen.

In the first 2 minutes of the game I play and then nothing for the rest of the game, see below.
No mention of my name playing at all after the below and I'm not subbed off or taken away in an ambulance.
So could I ask here: what is happening and why does it happen please?:

Round 17 Won vs Bom

1 : .18 {lW} - Pamcake1 did enough to prevent a mark being taken.
1 : .22 {rW} - Pamcake1 slowing down the play.
1 : .26 {rHBF} - Handpass over the shoulder to dogs105.

The answer is in the match stats. You went to the bench at the 4 min 50 sec mark of the Bombers game and never came back on. You played 5% time on ground for 1 handball. It happens sometimes.

 

[Pamcake1]

The answer is in the match stats. You went to the bench at the 4 min 50 sec mark of the Bombers game and never came back on. You played 5% time on ground for 1 handball. It happens sometimes.

View attachment 1993800

Ok I missed it, now it makes sense. Thanks for your reply.

 

[Cadsky]

Ok I missed it, now it makes sense. Thanks for your reply.

Happy to help. The sim.can be complicated to understand, it took me a few seasons before I caught on what everything meant because no one explained it to me.

 

[Wosh]

Bump
Anyone who has questions about the sim process and how things are done every season feel free to ask in here. Anyone who would like to d/l it and see how it works for themselves can do so through the link in the OP.

New players can have a read of the OP and become even more confused!

 

[Tonga Bob]

Hi Mobbs and the simmer community, long time listener first time melter.

I have a question.

Given the current process for simulation which I agree is run honestly and above board, how do you account for extended cases of one result occuring almost to the exclusion of other results? I have two examples to bring to the table:

The first is the record between CIW & DRA. Overall the result is this:

Wins	9​
Draws	2​
Losses	26​
Total	37​
Win %	24.32%​
Margin	-490​	-13.24 per game​

The first 14 games seems random enough - 7 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses which is a 50% win record. But from season 24 onwards it's 2 wins, 1 draw and 20 losses at 8.7% win rate.

Then since I started in s29 the result is this:

Me
Wins	1​
Draws	1​
Losses	13​
Total	15​
Win %	6.67%​
Margin	-398​	-26.53 per game​

The last 11 results have been zero wins, one draw and ten losses with a total margin of -321 points.

The second example is the fact that my team have played in only one grand final and have won no premierships in 21 seasons (will be 22 this season).

So my question is, how does the current process allow such series of results that have incredibly low probabilities of occurring to happen? Is it dumb luck, or is there something else to it. I do statistical analysis as part of my job, and at a statistical level, this run chart would give me cause for concern

 

[serial_thrilla]

Hi Mobbs and the simmer community, long time listener first time melter.

I have a question.

Given the current process for simulation which I agree is run honestly and above board, how do you account for extended cases of one result occuring almost to the exclusion of other results? I have two examples to bring to the table:

The first is the record between CIW & DRA. Overall the result is this:

Wins	9​
Draws	2​
Losses	26​
Total	37​
Win %	24.32%​
Margin	-490​	-13.24 per game​

The first 14 games seems random enough - 7 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses which is a 50% win record. But from season 24 onwards it's 2 wins, 1 draw and 20 losses at 8.7% win rate.

Then since I started in s29 the result is this:

Me
Wins	1​
Draws	1​
Losses	13​
Total	15​
Win %	6.67%​
Margin	-398​	-26.53 per game​

The last 11 results have been zero wins, one draw and ten losses with a total margin of -321 points.

The second example is the fact that my team have played in only one grand final and have won no premierships in 21 seasons (will be 22 this season).

So my question is, how does the current process allow such series of results that have incredibly low probabilities of occurring to happen? Is it dumb luck, or is there something else to it. I do statistical analysis as part of my job, and at a statistical level, this run chart would give me cause for concern

View attachment 2291461

Have you tried being better at qootball?

 

[Tonga Bob]

Have you tried being better at qootball?

As a random input into the process that shouldn't be a factor.

Also:

 

[serial_thrilla]

As a random input into the process that shouldn't be a factor.

Also:

View attachment 2291483

Okay, okay.

As a stats analyst at a professional level, could you please let me know if there is a 0% chance of this occurring randomly.

 

[Tonga Bob]

Okay, okay.

As a stats analyst at a professional level, could you please let me know if there is a 0% chance of this occurring randomly.

The chance of success of having 9 wins from 37 games (overall CIW record) is 0.0905%, and the chance of 1 win in 15 (my record) is 0.0458%. That's mighty close to zero.

 

[ClarkeM]

Nice melt

 

[Tonga Bob]

Nice melt

Care to add anything constructive to my questions or are you playing the role of crayon here?

 

[damicky]

Care to add anything constructive to my questions or are you playing the role of crayon here?

Are you questioning the integrity of the SIMmers?

 

[ClarkeM]

Care to add anything constructive to my questions or are you playing the role of crayon here?

Qooty is not a 50/50 game, it's a game made up of hundreds of 50/50 moments that result in something at the end. It's complete dumb luck and it must suck but I'm sure the Warriors have positive records against other teams? Perhaps not as drastic as this of course.

This is though, very ****ing funny. 2 wins in the last 23 games has got to be some kind of record surely? I say this earnestly.

I'm not sure what answer you're looking for here?

 

[Tonga Bob]

Are you questioning the integrity of the SIMmers?

No. I'm asking how such a series of results is possible.