Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Mr Meow]

And we have 6 games left. And we are bottom where you guys had parity wins v losses.

And most of our most likely to capture votes players have missed serious chunks of the season.

2022 when we had a reasonable run with injuries(though obviously missing Dusty for most of the season) how did our 27 and under players go?

222 votes gained by players 27yo and under in 2022 over the whole season of course, in a 23 game season, including the final. And we have added Hopper and Taranto in the age group.

So it seems continuity and fitness makes a very big difference to both lists.

Nope. It seems that our veterans have declined and a whole bunch of players aged 20-26 years old have stepped up with career best form, after starting to last year (a couple more reflected in B&F than coaches votes in 2023).

I already did a meta analysis on the number of Richmond games missed from proven vote getters this season. It really isn't much. Don't worry, maybe Graham, Hopper and co will really bounce back next season. Rioli and Baker are halfway out the door. Bolton, Young and Taranto have had seasons of reversion rather than improvement. Who has actually improved? Maybe Miller? Mansell? Solid C grade citizens.

 

[Mr Meow]

Meteoric Rise where are the young, 3 game Tigers having breakout moments like this? We had it with Dempsey too. 2 years ago it was SDK and Holmes. Stengle and Miers have become some of the best forward pocket and high half forwards respectively in the league, from obscurity. Zuthrie has gone from a laughing stock to our most reliable defender, so much so that we can now release Stewart the midfield.

Neale and O.Henry have had solid scoreboard impact. Conway showed some good signs in the ruck, he just needs his body to let him have a proper run at it.

For Richmond there is still big potential in Bolton (despite inconsistency) and Balta. Young Campbell has shown some signs and Ralphsmith is no longer a dud. Maybe Ross will turn into a Stengle/Miers type contributor. It'll be interesting to see.

 

[ChairmanZia]

Nope. It seems that our veterans have declined and a whole bunch of players aged 20-26 years old have stepped up with career best form, after starting to last year (a couple more reflected in B&F than coaches votes in 2023).

I already did a meta analysis on the number of Richmond games missed from proven vote getters this season. It really isn't much. Don't worry, maybe Graham, Hopper and co will really bounce back next season. Rioli and Baker are halfway out the door. Bolton, Young and Taranto have had seasons of reversion rather than improvement. Who has actually improved? Maybe Miller? Mansell? Solid C grade citizens.

Those 20 - 26 are playing with the likes of tuohy, dangerfield, cameron, duncan, stewart still running the show...

Don't think that you can keep this up indefinitely, no amount of free agents and big names can replace generational cohort required to maintain a premiership team.

There is nothing special to winning flags, get 3, 4 A+ graders, then you get amount 15 - 18 best fitting support players, you are then left with 1 or 2 spots to 'develop' youngsters. Geelong is simply following formula better than hawthorn, richmond, nothing special.

 

[Mr Meow]

Those 20 - 26 are playing with the likes of tuohy, dangerfield, cameron, duncan, stewart still running the show...

Don't think that you can keep this up indefinitely, no amount of free agents and big names can replace generational cohort required to maintain a premiership team.

There is nothing special to winning flags, get 3, 4 A+ graders, then you get amount 15 - 18 best fitting support players, you are then left with 1 or 2 spots to 'develop' youngsters. Geelong is simply following formula better than hawthorn, richmond, nothing special.

Running the show? You can't be talking about Tuohy and Duncan on their last legs. Hawkins legs already left him - likewise Bews and Stanley - and Blicavs is nearing that level too.

Dangerfield has missed half the season and then plays about half a match when his hammies let him.

Stewart and Cameron's form fell off a cliff for 6 weeks. But yes we are reliant on those two 31 year olds playing something near their best footy.

On the one hand you say it's nothing special, on the other you say it can't be kept up indefinitely. Nobody is even claiming that Geelong won't fall down the ladder. Merely that there are some good signs from youngsters and players in the first half of their careers, as a number of veterans have basically reached their last legs. Nothing more, nothing less. Is it okay to be happy enough with that?

 

[ChairmanZia]

Running the show? You can't be talking about Tuohy and Duncan on their last legs. Hawkins legs already left him - likewise Bews and Stanley - and Blicavs is nearing that level too.

Dangerfield has missed half the season and then plays about half a match when his hammies let him.

Stewart and Cameron's form fell off a cliff for 6 weeks. But yes we are reliant on those two 31 year olds playing something near their best footy.

On the one hand you say it's nothing special, on the other you say it can't be kept up indefinitely. Nobody is even claiming that Geelong won't fall down the ladder. Merely that there are some good signs from youngsters and players in the first half of their careers, as a number of veterans have basically reached their last legs. Nothing more, nothing less. Is it okay to be happy enough with that?

And that's the problem, you need to fall to the absolute bottom just as we humans need to get very sick sometimes.

In both cases, the system can get a chance to do a total reset and rebuild.

Of course for geelong, that won't be allowed to happen for a club that's very old but can be good enough for top 8 and top 4 sometimes...to the detriment of future.

All this will simply result in a forced blood letting in around 2027 - 2030 as you guys trade out a lot of the midtier players for draft picks. In that particular case, it's a forced rebuild instead of a pro-active rebuild.

 

[Mr Meow]

And that's the problem, you need to fall to the absolute bottom just as we humans need to get very sick sometimes.

In both cases, the system can get a chance to do a total reset and rebuild.

Of course for geelong, that won't be allowed to happen for a club that's very old but can be good enough for top 8 and top 4 sometimes...to the detriment of future.

All this will simply result in a forced blood letting in around 2027 - 2030 as you guys trade out a lot of the midtier players for draft picks. In that particular case, it's a forced rebuild instead of a pro-active rebuild.

Fair enough. Enjoy the good signs each season as they come, I say. 2030 will arrive when it arrives. I'm not actually our list manager.

 

[tiger_tough]

Meteoric Rise where are the young, 3 game Tigers having breakout moments like this? We had it with Dempsey too. 2 years ago it was SDK and Holmes. Stengle and Miers have become some of the best forward pocket and high half forwards respectively in the league, from obscurity. Zuthrie has gone from a laughing stock to our most reliable defender, so much so that we can now release Stewart the midfield.

Neale and O.Henry have had solid scoreboard impact. Conway showed some good signs in the ruck, he just needs his body to let him have a proper run at it.

For Richmond there is still big potential in Bolton (despite inconsistency) and Balta. Young Campbell has shown some signs and Ralphsmith is no longer a dud. Maybe Ross will turn into a Stengle/Miers type contributor. It'll be interesting to see.

Well Steely Green would've been next in line for the nom. He kicked 3 goals in his 3rd game V GWS, in the worst forward line in the worst team....not loose man in defence.

Not having a crack, that young fella was excellent and looks like a gem

 

[Mr Meow]

Well Steely Green would've been next in line for the nom. He kicked 3 goals in his 3rd game V GWS, in the worst forward line in the worst team....not loose man in defence.

Not having a crack, that young fella was excellent and looks like a gem

Actually I did like Green's game (I only caught bits and pieces admittedly). Mansell has come on and Campbell has shown some good things. I'm not 100% doom and gloom on the tigers youngsters, they've actually shown a bit this season.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Those 20 - 26 are playing with the likes of tuohy, dangerfield, cameron, duncan, stewart still running the show...

Don't think that you can keep this up indefinitely, no amount of free agents and big names can replace generational cohort required to maintain a premiership team.

There is nothing special to winning flags, get 3, 4 A+ graders, then you get amount 15 - 18 best fitting support players, you are then left with 1 or 2 spots to 'develop' youngsters. Geelong is simply following formula better than hawthorn, richmond, nothing special.

Maybe your club should try it some time.

 

[dazbroncos]

I wouldn't read too much into this. I'm sure there were a bunch of Richmond youngsters just outside the top 10.

Sosnie's 3 touch game will bring him right into contention.
RalphSmith looked a good Macintosh type however. Blue collar hard working type.

GO Catters

 

[MisterMarcus]

I just don't believe you have trouble "replacing" players. New and different players come in and bring new types of value to a team. For the same price as Blicavs you might get a specialist ruck, or strong mid-forward for instance. The player doesn't have to be able to do exactly what Blicavs can do to bring a similar level of value to the team.

Interesting how we've now gone a full 180 from claiming Geelong will crash down the ladder for years because we can't replace all our premiership-era players.....to now saying we should have no trouble at all replacing premiership-era players.

I guess all the doomsdaying didn't come true in 2024 so we're going the ultra reverse mozz instead...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Interesting how we've now gone a full 180 from claiming Geelong will crash down the ladder for years because we can't replace all our premiership-era players.....to now saying we should have no trouble at all replacing premiership-era players.

I guess all the doomsdaying didn't come true in 2024 so we're going the ultra reverse mozz instead...

Are you worried?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Fair bit of talk around Rioli, Baker and Bolton now from fairly credible sources.

Cats are about to be shown what a real rebuild looks like.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Fair bit of talk around Rioli, Baker and Bolton now from fairly credible sources.

Cats are about to be shown what a real rebuild looks like.

Weren't you saying how Richmond were far ahead of Geelong in their rebuild because of these 24-27 year olds? What happened to that?

Now it's a full root and branch rebuild while trading out the "superstar" middle aged players?

At this rate Richmond's going to have the demographics of an expansion team next year.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Weren't you saying how Richmond were far ahead of Geelong in their rebuild because of these 24-27 year olds? What happened to that?

Now it's a full root and branch rebuild while trading out the "superstar" middle aged players?

At this rate Richmond's going to have the demographics of an expansion team next year.

Mixed messages always drive Cats fans insane. That's why we love it.

If you think our 24-27yo's aren't so good, watch what we get if we start trading them out. And weep.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

And this 2024 draft is strong and deep.

What a great time to have the opportunity to win a wooden spoon. And to find yourself in possession of some needle moving prime aged players OTHER CLUBS ACTUALLY WANT.

Cats fans fuming.

 

[STPer18]

This would be like us celebrating if Max Holmes and Tyson Stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

25

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

decided to jump ship rather than re-sign, right?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Lions 21 years since last dynasty flag - no flags since.

Hawks, 10th year since last dynasty flag - no flag since.

Cats 13 years since last dynasty flag, showed everyone how it is done, sneaking the future CEO into AFL House to ensure 1 flag, well done Cats.

Tigers - 4 years since last dynasty flag, hold our beer Cats, and sit back and watch how it is really done.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

This would be like us celebrating if Max Holmes and Tyson Stengle decided to jump ship rather than re-sign, right?

Tyson Stengle did want to jump ship you numbskull. No ****er wanted him.

 

[STPer18]

Lions 21 years since last dynasty flag - no flags since.

Hawks, 10th year since last dynasty flag - no flag since.

Cats 13 years since last dynasty flag, showed everyone how it is done, sneaking the future CEO into AFL House to ensure 1 flag, well done Cats.

Tigers - 4 years since last dynasty flag, hold our beer Cats, and sit back and watch how it is really done.

Tyson Stengle did want to jump ship you numbskull. No ****er wanted him.

I feel like this is the part where I'm supposed to type 'cope'. Cope.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I feel like this is the part where I'm supposed to type 'cope'. Cope.

Well you guys are where we would be coming for advice on that particular subject.

You coped so well with us smashing your dreams in 3 finals.

 

[Mr Meow]

Well you guys are where we would be coming for advice on that particular subject.

You coped so well with us smashing your dreams in 3 finals.

Good teams keep putting themselves up there, even without any good draft picks for prolonged periods.

Richmond have been utterly pathetic since the dynasty ended, and have quickly reverted back to being the joke of the league.

Bolton needs to be moved on to a contending side as, like was and still is the case for Martin, he doesn't do much when he believes his side aren't a chance.

 

[STPer18]

Well you guys are where we would be coming for advice on that particular subject.

You coped so well with us smashing your dreams in 3 finals.

The fact that Richmond's golden era is but a footnote of - and squeezed inbetween - Geelong's four flag run of the Joel Selwood era definitely helps.

 

[STPer18]

But anyway back to the topic at hand, how can you celebrate the recruitment of prime-aged players Hopper (27) and Taranto (26) for a farm's worth of draft capital, while simultaneously celebrating Bolton (25), Baker (26) and Rioli (27) jumping ship. It seems a little conflicting at first viewing unless you've come around to the conclusion that trading in a couple of surplus GWS mids for an eye-watering price was a mistake.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Good teams keep putting themselves up there, even without any good draft picks for prolonged periods.

Richmond have been utterly pathetic since the dynasty ended, and have quickly reverted back to being the joke of the league.

Bolton needs to be moved on to a contending side as, like was and still is the case for Martin, he doesn't do much when he believes his side aren't a chance.

First, a couple of points about claims you made in your post.

Richmond 2021-2022-2023 combined home and away record: 32w 3d 32l.

Hardly qualifies as pathetic. We have only been pathetic in 2024. And for obvious reasons outside the club's full control.

Second, good clubs win flags. Richmond has won 13. Geelong has won 10. And finals. Richmond has outscored Geelong in no less than 10 of the 11 finals series in which the two clubs have met each other. Including the most recent 3 of course, in case you needed reminding of the traumatic(for you) events of 2017, 19, 20.

As for your Bolton advice. I suggest you just sit back and watch exactly how it is done by a club that has the best Grand Final won v finals lost ration in the competition over the last 80 years....and it is not even close.