Analysis The Rebuilds of Geelong and Richmond and their Future Prospects

Who has the better future prospects?


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Right off the bat I'll say our veterans were either missing or played terribly. Those looking to diagnose the result only look there. And yes we'll struggle as that becomes the case permanently (through retirements etc).

So now onto players who will be around the next 7+ years:

Dempsey was superb on the wing. He still has a lot of improvement in him, he's on about game 10 after barely playing in juniors.

Mullin will be a jet, he just needs to find more of the footy.

Once Conway develops a tank and some composure he'll be a good ruck. He's had a lot of injury issues and ruckmen are often late bloomers.

Neale had 2 goals and a goal assist, yet he dropped about 5 easy marks in front of goal. Would he stick some of those away from the humidity? If so, we have plenty to work with. If not, he has plenty to work on. Both are probably true.

O.Henry had 2 goals and (basically) a goal assist via his spoil that landed in Neale. Yet he needs to contest against aerial defenders much better. He lets them mark the ball at will.

Holmes and Miers were typically brilliant, with team mates not on the same wavelength most of the time. They remain at AA squad of 44 level form, if not pushing for the 22. Stengle was less involved but showed the usual moments of class. He's a star small forward.

Zuthrie and J.Henry had shockers. We missed SDK. Overall that was worth 6 goals. There is talent among that group but Henry is concerning at the moment.

Bruhn had his worst game as Cat. It seriously hurt us.

Clark looked lively as a sub, with a nice goal. He's not ready but if Cam Guthrie plays like this, Clark should replace him anyway.

Honestly you can't complain too much about the 25 and unders. Everyone above 26 played a stinker, as simple as that.

Last night the future of Geelong - minus Sam DeKoning(who you say is worth 6 goals and is therefore clearly THE most valuable player in the history of the sport, but official ratings say is the 37th best out of 64 key defenders who have played in the AFL this year based on average actual performance,) who played the team who were sitting 10th on the ladder after 9 games, with the 10th best percentage, and who were average age 14 months younger than the youth of the Cats, and who had played on average 17 games less than the youth of the Cats, and they were off a 5 day break in high humidity, and with virtually zero home ground advantage, and who rested 4 of their best 22, with Weller, Rosas and Powell already missing through injury or suspension....and you were defeated by 64 points.

How do you plead?

"We are shit your honour." :)

And what else did Geelong have missing apart from the man worth "6 goals?"

31yo J Cameron
34yo P NolongeraDangerfield
35 yo T PutaforkinHawkins
almost 33yo Duncan
33yo Stanley

Daryl Summers, John "Sam" Newman, The National Hotel, Dave Thornton, Kelly Cartwright, Portia De Rossi, Alice Ivy, Dr Peter Larkins, Dennis Walter, Ian Redpath, Mr Universe Calum von Moger, Rone, Little Malop Street, Adventure Park Geelong, The Costa Zoo, Pyramid Building Socienty, Ford Motor Vehicle Company, Bert Palframan, John Coogan, 7th most successful footballer in the Ablett family, Nina McDonald, Georgie Prespakis....

....your lads played the 10th best team in the AFL who were off a 5 day break from a Darwin game, and copped a father of a hiding. A hell of a beating. :tearsofjoy: :tearsofjoy: :tearsofjoy:
 
Last night the future of Geelong - minus Sam DeKoning(who you say is worth 6 goals and is therefore clearly THE most valuable player in the history of the sport, but official ratings say is the 37th best out of 64 key defenders who have played in the AFL this year based on average actual performance,) who played the team who were sitting 10th on the ladder after 9 games, with the 10th best percentage, and who were average age 14 months younger than the youth of the Cats, and who had played on average 17 games less than the youth of the Cats, and they were off a 5 day break in high humidity, and with virtually zero home ground advantage, and who rested 4 of their best 22, with Weller, Rosas and Powell already missing through injury or suspension....and were defeated by 64 points.

And what else did Geelong have missing apart from the man worth "6 goals?"

31yo J Cameron
34yo P NolongeraDangerfield
35 yo T PutaforkinHawkins
almost 33yo Duncan
33yo Stanley

Daryl Summers, John "Sam" Newman, The National Hotel, Dave thornton, Kelly Cartwright, Portia De Rossi, Alice Ivy, Dr Peter Larkins, Dennis Walter, Ian Redpath, Mr Universe Calum von Moger, Rone, Little Malop Street, Adventure Park Geelong, The Costa Zoo, Pyramid Building Socienty, Ford Motor Vehicle Company, Bert Palframan, John Coogan, 7th most successful footballer in the Ablett family, Nina McDonald, Georgie Prespakis....

....your lads played the 10th best team in the AFL who were off a 5 day break from a Darwin game, and copped a father of a hiding. A hell of a beating. :tearsofjoy: :tearsofjoy: :tearsofjoy:
Yadda yadda yadda.

Gold Coast will thump plenty of teams up North over the next few years.

This is a rebuild thread looking at who will take over or be on the rise as the 30+ year olds retire. The 20-25 year old cohort were our strongest performers, as they have been most weeks.

We could do with more from our 26 and aboves. If they played to a level they are capable of, we'd have won the close Melbourne and Port games and at least made a game of it last night.

Richmond on the other hand are actually having their veterans as their strongest performers. Let's see how the 25 and unders do this weekend and compare them to their counterparts for Geelong last night.
 
Yadda yadda yadda.

Gold Coast will thump plenty of teams up North over the next few years.

This is a rebuild thread looking at who will take over or be on the rise as the 30+ year olds retire. The 20-25 year old cohort were our strongest performers, as they have been most weeks.

We could do with more from our 26 and aboves. If they played to a level they are capable of, we'd have won the close Melbourne and Port games and at least made a game of it last night.

Richmond on the other hand are actually having their veterans as their strongest performers. Let's see how the 25 and unders do this weekend and compare them to their counterparts for Geelong last night.

But your 20-25 year olds will also be playing against the 20-25year olds from Gold Coast Suns Football Club in years to come. And how did the 20-25 year old cohort for the Gold Coast Suns Football Club perform last night against the fine young gentlemen of Geelong?

  • Noah Anderson, a lazy 42 touches, 2 majors and an assist to go with 4 tackles and 15 score involvements
  • "Colonel" Sam Flanders 37 & 2 tackles with 7 score involvements doing exactly as he desired off 1/2 back
  • Matt Rowell 35 touches, 10 tackles, 8 clearances, a major and 3 assists amongst 11 score involvements
  • J Jeffrey 21 & 1
  • T Berry 20 & 2 assists with 5 tackles
  • Jack Lucosius 5 goals and 5 assists amongst 12 score involvements
  • Ned Moyle 42 hitouts, 16 disposals, 5 tackles, 6 clearances and 8 score involvements
  • Bayley Humphrey 16 disposals, 5 goals, 5 tackles, 10 contested sherrins, 8 score involvements
  • Lloyd Johnston 6 tackles
  • Ben King 4 goals
  • Ballard, Andrews, Davies, Uwland - sat back smoking the cherry.

Your 20-25 yo cohort seemed to cop a hell of a hiding Meow, a shocking thumping. Youch. :)
 

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But your 20-25 year olds will also be playing against the 20-25year olds from Gold Coast Suns Football Club in years to come. And how did the 20-25 year old cohort for the Gold Coast Suns Football Club perform last night against the fine young gentlemen of Geelong?

  • Noah Anderson, a lazy 42 touches, 2 majors and an assist to go with 4 tackles and 15 score involvements
  • "Colonel" Sam Flanders 37 & 2 tackles with 7 score involvements doing exactly as he desired off 1/2 back
  • Matt Rowell 35 touches, 10 tackles, 8 clearances, a major and 3 assists amongst 11 score involvements
  • J Jeffrey 21 & 1
  • T Berry 20 & 2 assists with 5 tackles
  • Jack Lucosius 5 goals and 5 assists amongst 12 score involvements
  • Ned Moyle 42 hitouts, 16 disposals, 5 tackles, 6 clearances and 8 score involvements
  • Bayley Humphrey 16 disposals, 5 goals, 5 tackles, 10 contested sherrins, 8 score involvements
  • Lloyd Johnston 6 tackles
  • Ben King 4 goals
  • Ballard, Andrews, Davies, Uwland - sat back smoking the cherry.

Your 20-25 yo cohort seemed to cop a hell of a hiding Meow, a shocking thumping. :)
Yeah they have an incredible batch of draft picks peaking and playing beautifully on their two home patches this season. I rate them highly and they should be competing for premierships soon.

This isn't a Geelong/Gold Coast rebuilding thread.

It is seeing who out of Richmond and Geelong, has better performing players and prospects in the 25 and unders. 22 and unders if focussing on the most recent few drafts.

On that count Geelong has had so many more decent-great performers than Richmond that it isn't funny. You could actually argue that it is Richmond's veterans out performing Geelong's, but Cats players in the first half of their career are smashing their Tiger counterparts.

Which would make Geelong winning this thread and by a long, long way.
 
Yeah they have an incredible batch of draft picks peaking and playing beautifully on their two home patches this season. I rate them highly and they should be competing for premierships soon.

This isn't a Geelong/Gold Coast rebuilding thread.

It is seeing who out of Richmond and Geelong, has better performing players and prospects in the 25 and unders. 22 and unders if focussing on the most recent few drafts.

On that count Geelong has had so many more decent-great performers than Richmond that it isn't funny. You could actually argue that it is Richmond's veterans out performing Geelong's, but Cats players in the first half of their career are smashing their Tiger counterparts.

Which would make Geelong winning this thread and by a long, long way.

Yet you take away a few senior players and 10th placed Gold Coast Suns missing 7 best 22 players destroy your youth by 64 points.

Something is not quite adding up here meow....but I know you will be on the case trying to make sense of this crazy situation where the Cats youth have been shown to be NOT VERY GOOD afterall. :)
 
Yet you take away a few senior players and 10th placed Gold Coast Suns missing 7 best 22 players destroy your youth by 64 points.

Something is not quite adding up here meow....but I know you will be on the case trying to make sense of this crazy situation where the Cats youth have been shown to be NOT VERY GOOD afterall. :)
Let's compare the performers 25 and under this season, let's say something like a best 18 (oldest first):

Richmond

Young
Bolton
Miller
Balta
Mansell
Kozzy
Ross
Ryan
Cumberland
Dow
Ralphsmith
MRJ
Trezise
Sonsie
Banks
Gibcus
Brown
Campbell

FB: Trezise Gibcus Young
HB: Brown Miller Banks

C: Sonsie Ross Ralpsmith
FOL: Ryan Dow Bolton

HF: Mansell Kozzy MRJ
FF: Cumberland Balta Campbell

Geelong

Z.Guthrie
Close
J.Henry
Stengle
Miers
Mullin
De Koning
Bruhn
Neale
O.Henry
Holmes
Knevitt
Conway
Dempsey
Humpries
Clohesy
Clark
O'Sullivan

FB: Mullin SDK J.Henry
HB: Z.Guthrie O'Sullivan Humphries

C: Dempsey Bruhn Knevitt
FOL: Conway Clark Holmes

HF: Close O.Henry Miers
FF: Stengle Neale Clohesy

Now try, without breaking into laughter (and this is key), to convince yourself that the Richmond list has outperformed Geelong's so far this season when given the opportunity. That they have the most scope for improvement and potential to be B+ or better players for a long period.
 
Yeah they have an incredible batch of draft picks peaking and playing beautifully on their two home patches this season. I rate them highly and they should be competing for premierships soon.

This isn't a Geelong/Gold Coast rebuilding thread.

It is seeing who out of Richmond and Geelong, has better performing players and prospects in the 25 and unders. 22 and unders if focussing on the most recent few drafts.

On that count Geelong has had so many more decent-great performers than Richmond that it isn't funny. You could actually argue that it is Richmond's veterans out performing Geelong's, but Cats players in the first half of their career are smashing their Tiger counterparts.

Which would make Geelong winning this thread and by a long, long way.
Kind of sums it up when even Richmond supporters don't want to hold themselves up as a benchmark any more.

"Geelong's youth isn't as good as Richmond teams that have had squillions of Top 10 picks gifted to them" is a pretty big goalpost shift.
 
Some brilliant coaching has masked some of their issues, but the Cats young midfield brigade outside of Holmes is shocking.

Father Time eventually comes for us all.
Seriously, once their older players retire (assuming no other ins.. bailey smith?) a midfield comprising Holmes, Bruhn, Parfitt, Bowes, Clark, Conway would have to be close to the worst in the AFL.
 
Seriously, once their older players retire (assuming no other ins.. bailey smith?) a midfield comprising Holmes, Bruhn, Parfitt, Bowes, Clark, Conway would have to be close to the worst in the AFL.

It’s very moneyball. Holmes is class, Conway has talent (but is probably 2 years away from being the number one guy on his own).

Bowes and Bruhn just aren’t good enough to be carrying a midfield. Too early to say on Clark.

Worrying signs. But - to be expected when you’ve been good for so long.

Welcome to the rebuild.

Glasses Join Us GIF by nounish ⌐◨-◨
 
Some brilliant coaching has masked some of their issues, but the Cats young midfield brigade outside of Holmes is shocking.

Father Time eventually comes for us all.
Dont mind the cats young midfield, rate them right now ahead of ours (Richmond) granted that isn’t exactly a very high bar but the bigger concern for both clubs needs to be key position forward stocks

A lot more decent mids get picked every draft so with a few astute picks over a few years the midfield can be rectified relatively quickly

However both sides rely heavily on guys at the end of their career to be the focal point of the forward lines and although they both have a couple of alright prospects none are the types you could build a forward line around for the long term

It’s also a problem that a lot of other clubs are looking at so the space for those big focal points is extremely competitive from a free agency perspective and not something the draft can fix in the short term with development time tending to be a lot a longer as well compared to midfielders
 
It’s very moneyball. Holmes is class, Conway has talent (but is probably 2 years away from being the number one guy on his own).

Bowes and Bruhn just aren’t good enough to be carrying a midfield. Too early to say on Clark.

Worrying signs. But - to be expected when you’ve been good for so long.

Welcome to the rebuild.

Glasses Join Us GIF by nounish ⌐◨-◨
The issue is that our senior mids (Danger, Cuthrie, Blicavs, Duncan, plus Stanley as well) have all badly fallen off due to injury or natural decline at exactly the same time.

Atkins and Parfitt are good solid role players, Bruhn/Clark/Conway have shown a lot of potential, Holmes looks a gun. But I don't think anyone expected all of them to suddenly be carrying the midfield with literally zero senior help.
 
I'm actually pretty happy with our young midfield but it's not ready yet. Holmes is a star. Bruhn has improved every year and looks like he'll be at least a good player. Clark is way undersized still but is a serious player. Conway looks very talented. Dempsey is the other who will obviously end up in there and could be the best of the lot.

Unfortunately the older guys have fallen way over the cliff very suddenly. The decline in Blicavs and Guthrie has been pretty sad to see and our mid aged players going through there are battlers at best.

It'll take 2-3 years for that midfield to start coming good. For the moment it's ridiculous we're sitting in the 8 and only lost one game by a significant margin despite the midfield being an absolute calamity.
 

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I'm actually pretty happy with our young midfield but it's not ready yet. Holmes is a star. Bruhn has improved every year and looks like he'll be at least a good player. Clark is way undersized still but is a serious player. Conway looks very talented. Dempsey is the other who will obviously end up in there and could be the best of the lot.

Unfortunately the older guys have fallen way over the cliff very suddenly. The decline in Blicavs and Guthrie has been pretty sad to see and our mid aged players going through there are battlers at best.

It'll take 2-3 years for that midfield to start coming good. For the moment it's ridiculous we're sitting in the 8 and only lost one game by a significant margin despite the midfield being an absolute calamity.
Your midfield definitely has potential, but as it stands only really Holmes has shown he'll definitely be a star. However, with Geelong being Geelong, i'm sure Bailey Smith + another FA A grade mid will be on their way soon enough.
 
Let's compare the performers 25 and under this season, let's say something like a best 18 (oldest first):

Richmond

Young
Bolton
Miller
Balta
Mansell
Kozzy
Ross
Ryan
Cumberland
Dow
Ralphsmith
MRJ
Trezise
Sonsie
Banks
Gibcus
Brown
Campbell

FB: Trezise Gibcus Young
HB: Brown Miller Banks

C: Sonsie Ross Ralpsmith
FOL: Ryan Dow Bolton

HF: Mansell Kozzy MRJ
FF: Cumberland Balta Campbell

Geelong

Z.Guthrie
Close
J.Henry
Stengle
Miers
Mullin
De Koning
Bruhn
Neale
O.Henry
Holmes
Knevitt
Conway
Dempsey
Humpries
Clohesy
Clark
O'Sullivan

FB: Mullin SDK J.Henry
HB: Z.Guthrie O'Sullivan Humphries

C: Dempsey Bruhn Knevitt
FOL: Conway Clark Holmes

HF: Close O.Henry Miers
FF: Stengle Neale Clohesy

Now try, without breaking into laughter (and this is key), to convince yourself that the Richmond list has outperformed Geelong's so far this season when given the opportunity. That they have the most scope for improvement and potential to be B+ or better players for a long period.

Ok, so let's do another exercise that isn't effected so much by Richmond's injury travails in the 2024 season so far.

Best average rating 25yo and under players on the list have achieved in a season, including the 2024 season.

2023 S Bolton Tigers 15.08
2024 M Holmes Cats 14.44
2024 G Miers Cats 14.77
2024 T Stengle Cats 12.69

2023 J Ross 10.91*
2024 Z Guthrie Cats 10.8
2024 B Close Cats 10.76

2021 N Balta Tigers 10.42*
2024 B Miller Tiger 10.37
2022 N Cumberland 10.02

2021 J Henry Cats 9.79
2024 Dempsey Cats 9.16
2024 Bruhn Cats 9.09

2024 J Gibcus 8.75*
2022 T Sonsie 8.67
2022 T Dow Tigers 8.62

2024 O Henry Cats 8.53
2022 S de Koning Cats 8.45

2024 T Brown Tigers 8.03
2023 T Young Tigers 8.00
2024 R Mansell Tigers 7.99

2024 O Mullin Cats 7.95
2024 M Rioli Tigers 7.33
2023 S Ryan Tigers 7.11
2024 H Ralphsmith Tigers 6.6

2023 M Knevitt 6.45
2023 J Clarke Tigers 6.29

2024 S Campbell 5.52
2024 J Clarke Cats 5.48*
2024 M Lefau Tigers 5.24
2023 S Banks Tigers 4.87

* 2024 significantly impacted by injury.

We can see a few things here...


  • There is a reasonably even spread of players from both teams throughout the list.
  • The prominent Cats rely very heavily on 10 games so far in the 2024 season where more or less everything has gone right for them.
  • Several of the young Tigers had their best seasons in 2022 when the team was functioning well
  • There are just 13 Cats on this list who have played 6 or more games in any season, but 18 Tigers.


However, the 26-30yo age bracket which is well relevant for a few more years yet(peak season rating in brackets):

McIntosh(9.18) Vlastuin(12.51) Nankervis(13.58) Short(12.3) Hopper(12.0)* D Rioli(11.96) Baker(12.66) Taranto(11.94)* Graham(11.66)*

V

Bews(8.52) Kolodjashnij(8.39) Atkins(12.71) O'Connor(8.88) Bowes(11.03) Parfitt(12.23) That these latter 2 have achieved big career highs in 2024 tells us to have some caution with all the 2024 Cats figures and perhaps wait until the end of the season before trusting these career benchmarks fully.

We can see Richmond have 7 players up to 30yo significantly impacted by injury in season 2024, Cats have had zero?

No doubt the Cats have more work to do to build their list over the next few years than Richmond do. But both will require significant additions to genuinely contend.
 
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Your midfield definitely has potential, but as it stands only really Holmes has shown he'll definitely be a star. However, with Geelong being Geelong, i'm sure Bailey Smith + another FA A grade mid will be on their way soon enough.

If they'd all shown they'll definitely be stars our midfield wouldn't be stuffed.

But all of those names are high picks (barring Dempsey who didn't play footy as a junior and would be a high pick in a redone draft) and have shown really high quality glimpses. They're at an age where they should be a lot better in 2-3 years time.

I would expect our midfield in 3-4 years to be at least decent. Doesn't mean the rest of the team will be though.
 
Ok, so let's do another exercise that isn't effected so much by Richmond's injury travails in the 2024 season so far.

Best average rating 25yo and under players on the list have achieved in a season, including the 2024 season.

2023 S Bolton Tigers 15.08
2024 M Holmes Cats 14.44
2024 G Miers Cats 14.77
2024 T Stengle Cats 12.69

2023 J Ross 10.91*
2024 Z Guthrie Cats 10.8
2024 B Close Cats 10.76

2021 N Balta Tigers 10.42*
2024 B Miller Tiger 10.37
2022 N Cumberland 10.02

2021 J Henry Cats 9.79
2024 Dempsey Cats 9.16
2024 Bruhn Cats 9.09

2024 J Gibcus 8.75*
2022 T Sonsie 8.67
2022 T Dow Tigers 8.62

2024 O Henry Cats 8.53
2022 S de Koning Cats 8.45

2024 T Brown Tigers 8.03
2023 T Young Tigers 8.00
2024 R Mansell Tigers 7.99

2024 O Mullin Cats 7.95
2024 M Rioli Tigers 7.33
2023 S Ryan Tigers 7.11
2024 H Ralphsmith Tigers 6.6

2023 M Knevitt 6.45
2023 J Clarke Tigers 6.29

2024 S Campbell 5.52
2024 J Clarke Cats 5.48*
2024 M Lefau Tigers 5.24
2023 S Banks Tigers 4.87

* 2024 significantly impacted by injury.

We can see a few things here...


  • There is a reasonably even spread of players from both teams throughout the list.
  • The prominent Cats rely very heavily on 10 games so far in the 2024 season where more or less everything has gone right for them.
  • Several of the young Tigers had their best seasons in 2022 when the team was functioning well
  • There are just 13 Cats on this list who have played 6 or more games in any season, but 18 Tigers.


However, the 26-30yo age bracket which is well relevant for a few more years yet(peak season rating in brackets):

McIntosh(9.18) Vlastuin(12.51) Nankervis(13.58) Short(12.3) Hopper(12.0)* D Rioli(11.96) Baker(12.66) Taranto(11.94)* Graham(11.66)*

V

Bews(8.52) Kolodjashnij(8.39) Atkins(12.71) O'Connor(8.88) Bowes(11.03) Parfitt(12.23) That these latter 2 have achieved big career highs in 2024 tells us to have some caution with all the 2024 Cats figures and perhaps wait until the end of the season before trusting these career benchmarks fully.

We can see Richmond have 7 players up to 30yo significantly impacted by injury in season 2024, Cats have had zero?

No doubt the Cats have more work to do to build their list over the next few years than Richmond do. But both will require significant additions to genuinely contend.

Haha this is beautiful.

Any reasonable judge would take Noah Cumberland over Ollie Dempsey, Jack Ross over Zach Guthrie, Thomson Dow over Ollie Henry and Ben Miller over Sam De Koning.
 
The issue is that our senior mids (Danger, Cuthrie, Blicavs, Duncan, plus Stanley as well) have all badly fallen off due to injury or natural decline at exactly the same time.

Atkins and Parfitt are good solid role players, Bruhn/Clark/Conway have shown a lot of potential, Holmes looks a gun. But I don't think anyone expected all of them to suddenly be carrying the midfield with literally zero senior help.

Oh, I have no issue with what you’re doing. Rebuilding on the run is the panacea all contenders are looking for.

I’m just saying, Geelong got a lot of plaudits 6 rounds in from everyone saying “mission accomplished - the rebuild is completely”.

Unfortunately (or fortunately), I just put that down to good coaching.

You’re not a contender this year and my question is, how do you replenish the midfield? Unfortunately, some time down the bottom of the ladder before Tassie arrives seems like it’s the most logical path forward.
 
Oh, I have no issue with what you’re doing. Rebuilding on the run is the panacea all contenders are looking for.

I’m just saying, Geelong got a lot of plaudits 6 rounds in from everyone saying “mission accomplished - the rebuild is completely”.

Unfortunately (or fortunately), I just put that down to good coaching.

You’re not a contender this year and my question is, how do you replenish the midfield? Unfortunately, some time down the bottom of the ladder before Tassie arrives seems like it’s the most logical path forward.

People go way overboard either way based on a couple of wins or losses.

The rebuild wasn't complete 3 weeks ago but it's also not got any worse in the last 3 weeks. In fact in the last few weeks we've had Mullin suddenly look like an AFL player against Port, Clark show more than he had previously and Conway have clearly his best game.

The difference between the last 3 weeks and the first 7 has been losing close games rather than winning them and our older players going from contributing nicely to being a collective liability. Between Stewart, Cameron, Hawkins, Danger, Guthrie, Blicavs, Stanley, Duncan, Rohan and Tuohy you'd struggle to find even 1 good performance in the last 3 weeks.

The last 3 weeks have revealed a run at a miracle flag isn't going to happen but it hasn't really changed anything about where the team is in the medium to long term.
 
Oh, I have no issue with what you’re doing. Rebuilding on the run is the panacea all contenders are looking for.

I’m just saying, Geelong got a lot of plaudits 6 rounds in from everyone saying “mission accomplished - the rebuild is completely”.

Unfortunately (or fortunately), I just put that down to good coaching.

You’re not a contender this year and my question is, how do you replenish the midfield? Unfortunately, some time down the bottom of the ladder before Tassie arrives seems like it’s the most logical path forward.
We're on a similar page so I'm not disagreeing...but I'm genuinely curious, who's actually said this?

Maybe a media dickhead here or there looking for a click, and a few Geelong posters delivering it with a hefty dose of irony/sarcasm...but outside of that we've been pretty consistent.

Our board would be a good judge of that. We're happy with how things are coming along, but by no means are they complete.

Like a few clubs, we've got a very promising crop coming through that needs to be added to with another quality draft or two, or we need to bring in some more younger types from other clubs.

We saw this as a transition year coming into the year, and that's basically what it's been.

Getting games into youth who are showing some great signs, without dropping our bundle and actually allowing them to develop.

It's unfortunate that our veterans appear to have finally hit that fated cliff, but by that same token, outside of Cameron & Stewart, our under 25s have been our best players this year anyway, and by a long way.

Personally, I went into the year with a very open mind. Neither bottom 4 or a premiership would've surprised me, it's the widest gap I had on our possibilities in a long time.

As it's played out, it's probably somewhere around the middle, which seems about right.

We'll hit the draft again this year, and/or bring in some quality in the trade period, and continue to roll over the list as we've been doing.
 
We're on a similar page so I'm not disagreeing...but I'm genuinely curious, who's actually said this?

Maybe a media dickhead here or there looking for a click, and a few Geelong posters delivering it with a hefty dose of irony/sarcasm...but outside of that we've been pretty consistent.

Our board would be a good judge of that. We're happy with how things are coming along, but by no means are they complete.

Like a few clubs, we've got a very promising crop coming through that needs to be added to with another quality draft or two, or we need to bring in some more younger types from other clubs.

We saw this as a transition year coming into the year, and that's basically what it's been.

Getting games into youth who are showing some great signs, without dropping our bundle and actually allowing them to develop.

It's unfortunate that our veterans appear to have finally hit that fated cliff, but by that same token, outside of Cameron & Stewart, our under 25s have been our best players this year anyway, and by a long way.

Personally, I went into the year with a very open mind. Neither bottom 4 or a premiership would've surprised me, it's the widest gap I had on our possibilities in a long time.

As it's played out, it's probably somewhere around the middle, which seems about right.

We'll hit the draft again this year, and/or bring in some quality in the trade period, and continue to roll over the list as we've been doing.

You’re right, I read the idiotic press from the media and assumed it was a widely held belief.

I wonder, Cats fans - do you see a lot of similarities with your team and the Hawks team of 2016?

We went 17-5 that year and similarly, a lot of people were applauding us for rebuilding on the run.

We had some great older players, sprinkled with talented youth like

Brad Hill (23)
Liam Shiels (25)
Will Langford (25)
Ryan Burton (19)
Sicily (21)

Unfortunately, we soon realized once our veterans retired (or were forced out too soon), it was a huge, huge drop off.

I think with hindsight, our inability to really invest in talented young players (due to our ladder position), is what failed to get us through.

Will Geelong be any diff?
 
People go way overboard either way based on a couple of wins or losses.

The rebuild wasn't complete 3 weeks ago but it's also not got any worse in the last 3 weeks. In fact in the last few weeks we've had Mullin suddenly look like an AFL player against Port, Clark show more than he had previously and Conway have clearly his best game.

The difference between the last 3 weeks and the first 7 has been losing close games rather than winning them and our older players going from contributing nicely to being a collective liability. Between Stewart, Cameron, Hawkins, Danger, Guthrie, Blicavs, Stanley, Duncan, Rohan and Tuohy you'd struggle to find even 1 good performance in the last 3 weeks.

The last 3 weeks have revealed a run at a miracle flag isn't going to happen but it hasn't really changed anything about where the team is in the medium to long term.
Agree with your first three paragraphs. Very balanced and rational view.

The last para I’m still not totally convinced the cats don’t have a chance this year to nab another one.

Carlton, Collingwood, Sydney are the three that probably should be fighting it out.

Essendon are suspect but their hard draw over the run home will tell us whether they are contenders or making up the numbers.

Port and Melbourne still have a flaky tag in big games. I’m not sure it’s coming together for the Dees this year. I’m more optimistic on Port.

Brisbane looks off the pace.

And if the Giants and Gold Coast click with their game plans they have the talent to over run any side. Big if though.

The cats are well placed to sneak into the top four. With experience, luck and some help from the injury gods, they may get to the Grand Final, where anything can happen. Particularly against an interstate team.

It’s a pretty even year.
 
Ok, so let's do another exercise that isn't effected so much by Richmond's injury travails in the 2024 season so far.

Best average rating 25yo and under players on the list have achieved in a season, including the 2024 season.

2023 S Bolton Tigers 15.08
2024 M Holmes Cats 14.44
2024 G Miers Cats 14.77
2024 T Stengle Cats 12.69

2023 J Ross 10.91*
2024 Z Guthrie Cats 10.8
2024 B Close Cats 10.76

2021 N Balta Tigers 10.42*
2024 B Miller Tiger 10.37
2022 N Cumberland 10.02

2021 J Henry Cats 9.79
2024 Dempsey Cats 9.16
2024 Bruhn Cats 9.09

2024 J Gibcus 8.75*
2022 T Sonsie 8.67
2022 T Dow Tigers 8.62

2024 O Henry Cats 8.53
2022 S de Koning Cats 8.45

2024 T Brown Tigers 8.03
2023 T Young Tigers 8.00
2024 R Mansell Tigers 7.99

2024 O Mullin Cats 7.95
2024 M Rioli Tigers 7.33
2023 S Ryan Tigers 7.11
2024 H Ralphsmith Tigers 6.6

2023 M Knevitt 6.45
2023 J Clarke Tigers 6.29

2024 S Campbell 5.52
2024 J Clarke Cats 5.48*
2024 M Lefau Tigers 5.24
2023 S Banks Tigers 4.87

* 2024 significantly impacted by injury.

We can see a few things here...


  • There is a reasonably even spread of players from both teams throughout the list.
  • The prominent Cats rely very heavily on 10 games so far in the 2024 season where more or less everything has gone right for them.
  • Several of the young Tigers had their best seasons in 2022 when the team was functioning well
  • There are just 13 Cats on this list who have played 6 or more games in any season, but 18 Tigers.


However, the 26-30yo age bracket which is well relevant for a few more years yet(peak season rating in brackets):

McIntosh(9.18) Vlastuin(12.51) Nankervis(13.58) Short(12.3) Hopper(12.0)* D Rioli(11.96) Baker(12.66) Taranto(11.94)* Graham(11.66)*

V

Bews(8.52) Kolodjashnij(8.39) Atkins(12.71) O'Connor(8.88) Bowes(11.03) Parfitt(12.23) That these latter 2 have achieved big career highs in 2024 tells us to have some caution with all the 2024 Cats figures and perhaps wait until the end of the season before trusting these career benchmarks fully.

We can see Richmond have 7 players up to 30yo significantly impacted by injury in season 2024, Cats have had zero?

No doubt the Cats have more work to do to build their list over the next few years than Richmond do. But both will require significant additions to genuinely contend.
Nah, I'm happy with the original exercise that I sent you. Not reading this until I get an answer on that, although avoiding the question is an answer in itself I guess.
 
You’re right, I read the idiotic press from the media and assumed it was a widely held belief.

I wonder, Cats fans - do you see a lot of similarities with your team and the Hawks team of 2016?

We went 17-5 that year and similarly, a lot of people were applauding us for rebuilding on the run.

We had some great older players, sprinkled with talented youth like

Brad Hill (23)
Liam Shiels (25)
Will Langford (25)
Ryan Burton (19)
Sicily (21)

Unfortunately, we soon realized once our veterans retired (or were forced out too soon), it was a huge, huge drop off.

I think with hindsight, our inability to really invest in talented young players (due to our ladder position), is what failed to get us through.

Will Geelong be any diff?
On our board in recent years, we've been trying to find a comparison and it's really hard work.

There's not a lot of clubs in recent times who have been so unbalanced at either end of old/young talent spectrum.

With respect to the Hawks though (a club I've got great admiration for, I'm not one of 'those' fans) I'd say our situations are very different in terms of your example.

Over the last 5 years, but especially since Hocking came back and truly changed the direction, the club has moved towards investing in youth, while trying to develop them in a competitive side.

Our older players haven't had that level of support in terms of mature talent being bought in, and while the under 25s are taking control of the side, it's at the cost of some veterans finally hitting the wall as a result.

Since 2019, when that shift began, we've brought in these players in the higher end of the draft.

  • Sam De Koning (pick 16)
  • Tanner Bruhn (pick 12)
  • Ollie Henry (pick 16)
  • Max Holmes (pick 20)
  • Toby Conway (pick 24)
  • Mitch Knevitt (pick 25)
  • Jhye Clark (pick 8)
  • Connor O'Sullivan (pick 8)

To go with these later gems, who might not be household names yet, but are highly rated within the 4 walls of the club and by our supporters.

  • Ollie Dempsey (rookie)
  • Shannon Neale (pick 33)
  • Oisin Mullin (cat b)
  • Lawson Humphries (pick 63)
  • Mitch Edwards (pick 32)

That transition is now being aided by:

  • Gryan Miers (25)
  • Tyson Stengle (26)
  • Zach Guthrie (26)
  • Jack Henry (26)
  • Jack Bowes (26)
  • Brad Close (26)

**********************

As supporters, we're really pleased with that group and have great hopes for them. It's been along time since we've had cohort of young players that talented, yet alone being picks that high (says it all really!)

The main problem with our list, is these names below, it's been a consistent fear for Geelong supporters that if we're going to struggle, it'll be as a result of these players in the 27-30 range:

- Jake Kolodjashnij (29, solid enough)

- Tom Atkins (29, honest battler at best)

- Mark O'Connor (27, same again)

That's a very small list, and that's the point. Our problem is we have virtually no players in the 27-30 range (aka a players prime) and those that we do have are just foot soldiers at best.

In simple terms, the 2012, '13, '14, & '15 drafts have come back to haunt us in terms of trading out, or just not picking quality.

When you add that to every veteran outside or Cameron & Stewart being cooked, or a shadow of their former selves, and it's the predicament in a nutshell.

We've done well since this drafts to turn the tide, mainly since 2019, but there's always going to be vacuum off the back of that, and it's why we're lacking those out and out stars at the peak of their powers, particularly in the midfield.

**********************

Where we take it from here will be interesting.

My guess would be that we continue what we're doing in terms of the youth movement, and maybe bring in some players in the 24-27 range to soften what ever landing that might come with that.

While we continue to do that, my guess would be we aim to peak in 2-4 years as those youngsters begin to hit their strides, but there could be some pain in that timeline too.

My move would be free agents while taking our picks to the draft, but I understand that would be goal of every club in October, and it very rarely eventuates that way, so we'll wait and see!
 
Oh, I have no issue with what you’re doing. Rebuilding on the run is the panacea all contenders are looking for.

I’m just saying, Geelong got a lot of plaudits 6 rounds in from everyone saying “mission accomplished - the rebuild is completely”.

Unfortunately (or fortunately), I just put that down to good coaching.

You’re not a contender this year and my question is, how do you replenish the midfield? Unfortunately, some time down the bottom of the ladder before Tassie arrives seems like it’s the most logical path forward.
Haha, this was definitely just Geelong supporters winding up a bunch of angry people that death ride the club. But it is also true that after years of being carried by our 30+, our 7 wins and 2 of our close losses (i.e not being blowouts) have been down more to the 20-25 year olds than say the 28-35 year olds. So the responsibility is shifting. But of course any club will suffer when a bunch of their A grade veterans fall off a cliff or retire. There was never a denial of that; more so it was gently pointed out that the players in the age groups below were doing their bit and showing plenty.

Realistically we'd need some big FA wins and a few more breaking out or taking the next step to stop the slide down the ladder. I always had 2025 as that true sliding year (where multiple years out of finals could start occurring), with 2024 this group's last shot at that 3rd-6th area if things went right. My opinion hasn't really shifted on that. The close losses the week before the NT trip have thrown that into jeopardy somewhat; I think most Cats supporters had the GC game marked down as a loss but the nature of the loss was still disappointing.
 
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