Analysis Have the Crows botched their rebuild?

[Fat Tony!]

The Crows are along with St Kilda in No-Man's Land.

The Crows form in recent years has been heavily reliant on Tex and Rankine. Dawson and Laird are good B graders. And Rachelle is very talented. As is Thilthorpe, but he is very injury prone.

That said, they are still hard to beat at home due to the incredibly biased umpiring they benefit from.

 

[BACCS]

he had a couple of feasts on poor backlines too didn't he?
Anyone doubling up against roos and eagles will find themselves with an additional 10ish goals to their tally.

Yep, same as Curnow did as well. Tex also kicked 5 against Darcy Moore, 4 against Steven May and 7 goals to win a Showdown. So why do his bags against the Eagles matter, when any good key forward will make the most of those games?

 

[BACCS]

I'm mainly interested to see how Thilthorpe and Fogarty go once Walker retires. Fogarty is just ok, Thilthorpe has underwhelmed. Can either/both become the 50-60 goal a year target once Walker retires?

Thilthorpe is in his 4th year, outside of Buddy, KPFs always take time. He's shown enough signs to suggest there is a good player there.

 

[Former Decathlete]

Would you say they are in “No Man’s Land” ?.

Reported for being sexist

"No persons land"

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Been saying it for a while(and got howled down for it), but they don’t have enough top end talent coming through the middle to replace their older heads, of which they relied upon in 2023.

 

[mattwa]

Midfield needs a revamp. I'd move laird to hb and play soligo and rotate rankine more into the CB. Soligo was pretty good last night there's definitely a player there. Just the crouch, laird and Dawson mix isn't doing it

 

[RonnieRaven]

Thilthorpe is in his 4th year, outside of Buddy, KPFs always take time. He's shown enough signs to suggest there is a good player there.

Jackson made AA squad ave a goal a game in his 4th year playing the same role.
Amiss drafted year after has kicked
52 goals in 28 games
Thilthorpe
44 goals in 46 games

there’s lots of key forwards with better starts than Thilthorpe not just Buddy

 

[EconomicDecline]

If it weren't for FS, academies and free agency then the Crows would have Bailey Smith, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Nick Daicos instead of Chayce Jones, Riley Thilthorpe and Josh Rachele.

I don't think anyone can deny that would make a massive difference, no?

Don't worry. If the Riewoldt kids show any talent the rules will change just before they come of draft age.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Don't worry. If the Riewoldt kids show any talent the rules will change just before they come of draft age.

They’ll be part of the Tasmania NGA, no doubt.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Can you explain their midfield to me?

It's atrocious

David King said it's vanilla and I have to agree with that. I can see where they thought Dawson, Crouch and Laird could lead the midfield. Plenty of grunt there. Soligo looks good.

The thing is they recruit a lot of short people and I think they want their x factor to come from livewire small forwards attending centre bounces now and then. I know they turned Laird into a midfielder, but you have to start recruiting real midfielders sooner or later. I don't know whether they thought Sloane would be good for them this year or not.

Their backline is basic. They have Curtin to form the basis of a rebound, and Thilthorpe to be part of their best spine. They do need to bring in some quality though.

 

[BACCS]

David King said it's vanilla and I have to agree with that. I can see where they thought Dawson, Crouch and Laird could lead the midfield. Plenty of grunt there. Soligo looks good.

The thing is they recruit a lot of short people and I think they want their x factor to come from livewire small forwards attending centre bounces now and then. I know they turned Laird into a midfielder, but you have to start recruiting real midfielders sooner or later. I don't know whether they thought Sloane would be good for them this year or not.

Their backline is basic. They have Curtin to form the basis of a rebound, and Thilthorpe to be part of their best spine. They do need to bring in some quality though.

Again with our backline. Keane, Murray and Butts are a good trio of KPFs, Worrell and Michelaney are good 3rd talls/interceptors, where we lack is a quality small defender. The backline is the last area of the ground we need worry about, especially with Curtin now as well (see him more as a wing/mid eventually).

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Again with our backline. Keane, Murray and Butts are a good trio of KPFs, Worrell and Michelaney are good 3rd talls/interceptors, where we lack is a quality small defender. The backline is the last area of the ground we need worry about, especially with Curtin now as well (see him more as a wing/mid eventually).

Who is dangerous for Adelaide coming off half back?

 

[BACCS]

Who is dangerous for Adelaide coming off half back?

Hinge was for us last year but is horribly out of form. Milera as well, but horrible injury last week. Curtin comes into that role soon I hope, should have played last night instead of Parnell. Nankervis also finally played last night and can do that wing/half back role. Brodie Smith is horribly out of form, you won't find one Crows fan happy with his continued selection. Keane is actually quite daring with his kicks off half back, his progression has helped us a lot.

Our best back 6 are Keane, Murray, Worrell, Michelaney, Hinge/Milera and Curtin/Nankervis. As I said, it's the last area of the ground any Crows fan is worried about atm.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I remain bullish on the Crows medium term prospects. They appear well coached, plenty of really good young players including some high end guys. Just had some really awkward injuries and adjustments this season, and no obviously soft opponents yet. They will add some more good draft picks and possibly free agents this year and next and regain Murray, Thilthorpe, Milera and they will be on track.

Big over-reaction here to a few lost games.

 

[WilloTree]

Was always going to be a risky rebuild hammering the forward line first.

The McAsey bust compounds the issue.

The positive is that they can go to the next couple of drafts knowing they needs mids and then defenders.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Again with our backline. Keane, Murray and Butts are a good trio of KPFs, Worrell and Michelaney are good 3rd talls/interceptors, where we lack is a quality small defender. The backline is the last area of the ground we need worry about, especially with Curtin now as well (see him more as a wing/mid eventually).

When you say 'good', do you mean serviceable? These guys are all mature aged, still relatively inexperienced, all supplemental or rookie draft selections. At 197cm, you'd think Curtin will play key position but you'd know better than me. McAsey really set you back so I get there are excuses here, and it's not necessarily all about mismanagement.

 

[BACCS]

When you say 'good', do you mean serviceable? These guys are all mature aged, still relatively inexperienced, all supplemental or rookie draft selections. At 197cm, you'd think Curtin will play key position but you'd know better than me. McAsey really set you back so I get there are excuses here, and it's not necessarily all about mismanagement.

No, I mean good. Keane would be leading our B&F currently, Murray was on track for a top 10 finish in our B&F last year before injury and had some great games on the leading KPFs of 2023. They aren't May and Lever or in that top tier of defensive combos, but they are good enough for a team trying to contend. As I said, it is absolutely the last area any Crows fan is concerned with.

 

[btdg]

Everyone expects progress to be linear but reality doesn't work like that.

Adelaide got a career best season from Dawson last year, and their BnF top 10 included Walker (now 33), Laird (30), Smith (31) and seasons where guys like Hinge, Murphynand even Keays and Milera performed above expectations. Plenty of reasons to expect them to regress a bit; just as many as there are expectations of growth from the very young guys around them

And Adelaide last year didn't make the top 8. Sure, they had some bad luck, but they also weren't good enough to get there, so it doesn't take a huge drop off to fall back off the pace. 11th or 12th on the ladder this year could be a very good team by historic standards - it is a deep league with 3 weak teams at the bottom...

They'll be fine - they will bounce back this year and probably have some big wins, and there's plenty to build on for the future. Still a lot of 2024 to go, too, and they'll look much better once they get a win and some confidence

 

[PCORF]

And Carlton to come. Will Nicks survive a 20 goal loss?

Losing by 20 goals (or more realistically like 10 goals) might be a good thing.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Nah. 0-4 in a 23 season game with how drastic the seasons eb and flow at present is pretty meanlingless. It is not ideal... But teams these days consistently go thru hot and cold patches given how even the comp is. If you are slightly off regardless of how good you are you will lose.

Sydney will be one of the teams to beat, and look what a mediocre richmond did to them when they were slightly off the boil.

0-4 can quickly turn into 4-4 and middle rung. Or 4-0 can quickly turn into 4-4...

Its a long season of revolving doors

 

[Duckimus Prime]

There are many examples of clubs who have had sustained success after gutting their lists and rebulding through the draft.

Hawthorn went to the draft in 2000-2005, won an initial flag ahead of their time, and then topped up a bit to win 3 more and have an extended premiership contention window.

Hawthorn had two draftsof "Before Round 1" priority picks to go with the advantage of Freo vastly overpaying for Trent Croad and Luke McPharlane.

 

[Duckimus Prime]

Jackson made AA squad ave a goal a game in his 4th year playing the same role.
Amiss drafted year after has kicked
52 goals in 28 games
Thilthorpe
44 goals in 46 games

there’s lots of key forwards with better starts than Thilthorpe not just Buddy

Like Logan MacDonald... 65 goals from 48 games. Taken 2 picks after Thilthorpe.

One goal more than Jamarra Ugle-Hagan over 48 games.

Tom Powell is looking pretty decent at North Melbourne... taken a couple picks after the Crows selected Luke Pedlar. (Powell is a South Australian too).

 

[Shane Heard]

I can't stand him but he was All Australian last year who the hell retires or gets moved on after that sort of year?

He's obviously playing with a sore back at present even his kicking is off which is rare for him.

One year too many …he’s wasting a spot on the list

 

[Shane Heard]

They are in Trouble with a capital T.

Rankine, Rachele and Red Rooster.

They are a two piece feed,

It's News and not Noise.

Hot Takes, Milk Shakes.

All steak and no sizzle..

 

[Rotayjay]

It's botched. We've wasted too much draft currency on untalented players who would struggle to get a game in any other side. Meanwhile we give them gold passes because they're team players, have the right attitude, train well, etc. Being a good bloke isn't a substitute for being a good footballer in this racket.