Prediction The Rolling Outrageous Claims Thread

[CatToTheFuture]

Now that season has started our MC now has to make the hard calls.

I think they will but it's case by case. Bews case has already been resolved. Hawkins and Stanley not far off. Dangers body is making the decision for us. Duncan not far off.

The decisions don't even look that hard

 

[Lana]

Who do you think should have been cut, how would that have occurred if the players in question were contracted, and would taking someone at pick 80 in the draft on a two year contract leave the list in a better position than the players in question playing an extra season?

This was my vent in August 2023 after we had the loss to St Kilda late which ended our season.

Anyone OOC who we could move out. We simply have to start, otherwise we'd be in the situation where they all get replaced at once.

Smith's already gone. Menegola's non selection this year has him gone.

Hawkins, Rohan and Tuohy.

Hawkins will be contentious, cause he is still kicking goals.

Duncan was contracted but f wasn't at the time of the vent I would have included him.
Guthrie is contracted to end of next season.
There is talk that Dangerfield will sign a contract for next year, when he is increasing unable to stay fit.
We needed a Stanley replacement but we couldn't convince anyone appropriate for the role to join.

I'm not saying the players I've listed above have zero value but we are at the point where they shouldn't be considered the core and it should be considered okay for them to be moved out.

My view on the benefits is that it's less on the value gained from recruitment side and more on the effect of their selection in the 22.

Our young guys are the drivers of our success. I want us to back them in 110%. we're at a stage where we're fighting to preserve what we have for the full year rather than build towards the end. I'd like us to go all in our running power and rebound, I think we have enough for the group to be greater than the sum of its parts.

The temptation for the club to go back to the talent/experience well is too great. They gave Rohan time in the VFL to prove he was more than ready. No one else will get that treatment.

 

[Hamingja]

Hawkins playing on may well prove to be a bad decision in hindsight but I'm never pushing a guy like that out prematurely for Shannon Neale.

This was my post before the North game:

I would prefer to keep the Hawk in for an easy kill. People murmuring after one bad game. Let him kick 3-4 in his sleep to keep the pressure off and the confidence up. Wouldn't want to go goalless in a tough game in Adelaide, rested, then have a torrid time against Lions and the Blues. People would be going overboard at that point.

That is really the problem with managing players. They miss the easy game and the monkey on the back becomes a gorilla. I'd have zero confidence that Neale would have done any better against May for instance in a hot game.

When talking about players like Hawkins and Tuohy the intangible at play is their big influence on player culture. If you break that, that is when you become a North Melbourne.

 

[Warhorse]

My original Hawkins claim is no longer outrageous enough.

One of Hardie or Clohesy will displace Atkins in the midfield by years end.

 

[Lana]

Hawkins playing on may well prove to be a bad decision in hindsight but I'm never pushing a guy like that out prematurely for Shannon Neale.

This was my post before the North game:



That is really the problem with managing players. They miss the easy game and the monkey on the back becomes a gorilla. I'd have zero confidence that Neale would have done any better against May for instance in a hot game.

When talking about players like Hawkins and Tuohy the intangible at play is their big influence on player culture. If you break that, that is when you become a North Melbourne.

Short term confidence aside, come the end of the season we'll need him to perform against the good sides. Better versions of Hawkins have been shut out of finals but I'd have confidence going into any game that he could be influential. There have been games here and there where his lack of mobility was exploited by the opposition but to last year in those games he'd have moments would bring some advantage. Right now it is like we're a player down he is antithetical to how we best move the ball and the opposition is playing off him.

It isn't a North situation they dumped like 5 guys at once with no replacement, we have 10 guys in that age bracket on the list. Some players just hold on for too long, and don't want to call it when they hit the wall.

 

[Wish Wellingtons]

You can't win a flag without at least 3 midfielders who are capable of getting 30 possessions in a game.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

My original Hawkins claim is no longer outrageous enough.

One of Hardie or Clohesy will displace Atkins in the midfield by years end.

Isn't Atkins already spending most of his time in the backline?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

You can't win a flag without at least 3 midfielders who are capable of getting 30 possessions in a game.

How about one?

 

[cats_09]

You can't win a flag without at least 3 midfielders who are capable of getting 30 possessions in a game.

That's not really an outrageous claim though, because teams who win flags are more likely to have an even spread through the midfield

When you start to look at the stats from recent seasons, you'll find there's a few finals bound teams each season where they have a player avg 30+ disposals, but at the same time, it's not uncommon for the lower ranked teams to also have a player who avg 30+ disposals



So maybe it's not so much having 1 or 2 players that continue to collect disposals at will, but rather a group of players that work together to make their disposals count - quality rather than quantity may just be the more important quantifier

 

[Kobe Gryant]

You can't win a flag without at least 3 midfielders who are capable of getting 30 possessions in a game.

Capable is the wrong word.

Are Bruhn & Bowes capable of 30 possessions per week at 70-80% game time like their opponents? Yes, absolutely.

Is Dangerfield capable of 30 possessions per week playing full time mid at 70-80% game time? Yes, absolutely.

Is a fit & healthy Guthrie at even 70% TOG capable? Absolutely.

Would it be a smart decision to run these players into the ground and then have them cooked come finals going up against Heeney, Greene, Gulden, Walsh, Cripps, & Warner? Absolutely not.

Our group are going to be up against it competing against those players as it is, whether that be age (both too old or too young) or just not in the same post code in terms of talent.

The only way we're going to beat those midfield groups at the business end is going to be because we're fresher.

We don't have the talent and/or the age profile to do it any other way with our midfield.

Until Conway, Bruhn, Clark, & Holmes get close to their peak, or we invest in bringing in quality midfielders in the prime of their careers, there's no other way.

Dangefield, Selwood, Ablett, Menegola, Kelly, & Duncan regularly got smashed in the midfield in finals due to flogging them physically during the season.

What hope do you seriously think a 30+ Dangerfield & Guthrie, Bowes, Bruhn, Atkins, & Parfitt have in that case?

 

[Lana]

You can't win a flag without at least 3 midfielders who are capable of getting 30 possessions in a game.

That is arbitrary why not 29 disposals

 

[catempire]

That is arbitrary why not 29 disposals

Regression results are what they are.

 

[Seeds]

Geelong to finish top 4 if we don't have a lot of injuries.

Yep still looks like this will hold if the if condition doesnt come true.

Yep I will go with this. Especially in the second half of the season. Been a star but the signs of a coming rapid decline have been blaring.

Sh*** i really was hoping i was wrong about this one. Just for once could i be wrong.

 

[Wish Wellingtons]

That is arbitrary why not 29 disposals

Not enough disposals

 

[allrighty]

The AFL will act on concerns of coaches, media and ..................... fans who want clarity on HTB and various other rules like, oh i dunno, high contact or the advantage rule.

Crickets expected

 

[catempire]

Now you know I’m not one to overreact, but the season is over.

We will scrape into 8th at season’s end and lose the EF.

 

[cats_09]

Now you know I’m not one to overreact, but the season is over.

We will scrape into 8th at season’s end and lose the EF.

So, do a North Melbourne?

 

[Lana]

Now you know I’m not one to overreact, but the season is over.

We will scrape into 8th at season’s end and lose the EF.

It's not outrageous to post this now, before the Melbourne game would have fit

 

[catempire]

It's not outrageous to post this now, before the Melbourne game would have fit

Outrageous!

 

[Warhorse]

New outrageous claim. The board will turn on Bruhn

 

[Lana]

So, do a North Melbourne?

 

[Mr Meow]

I guess at this point (stock at all time lows) it's outrageous to say we will find a way to finish top 4. So this is my new claim.

I feel this is more outrageous than "season over" based on the past 3 weeks.

It would be typical Geelong to have a bounce back game at home after a diabolical performance - even against a good side in GWS. Then Richmond are the week after, also at Geelong. That would have us 9-3 and maybe only needing a 6-5 or 7-4 run home to snatch 4th.

 

[PzBlinky]

My original Hawkins claim is no longer outrageous enough.

One of Hardie or Clohesy will displace Atkins in the midfield by years end.

After last night, that second sentence doesn't seem particularly outrageous either.

That said, that could apply to even Guthrie if he can't turn things around.

Feels like this is the year where a lot of players are hitting the wall.

 

[catempire]

I’ll start.

Sydney will win the first of back-to-back flags on Grand Final day 2024.

 

[Strange Cat]

Now you know I’m not one to overreact, but the season is over.

We will scrape into 8th at season’s end and lose the EF.

We will win the flag , just a form slump atm