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The Run Home in 2025

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We are at the mid-season break, and though not quite where we are at 6 and 5 we have a strong launching pad.



An honest appraisal is though we are close we are not quite a top 4 side at the moment, and I don’t just mean ladder position, top 4 is there on Preliminary Final Weekend. It may be personnel, however I believe it is fixing up a few issues with a little more consistency.



From a coaching perspective our game style stacks up. Our forwards are working well with Darcy and Trealor to add to the mix through there coming back soon. Reading negative comments about Spangher as our forward coach is frankly laughable, it we just too many gettable shots on goal.



It is not surprising that goal kicking is worse in this era of professional football. In the glory days of Lockett, Dunstall Lloyd, deep forwards were not expected to push back in team defence then work hard back forward. Fatigue is one issue. We do however have a few serial offenders who simply don’t take their time to set up and follow a basic routine on set shots.



Going forward this year there are not a lot of options, but however much Mc Neil has improved, he is a small forward who does not pressure like VDM and misses way to many gettable goals. Though he does not get enough of the football and lacks size at the moment I am not sure that we would not be better served by Dolan going forward.



We leak to many goals and have too many run ons against us. However, I am not sure this is down to our defensive structures. The vast majority of Geelong gaols were from turnover, NOT caused by pressure but by our own skills and decisions. These turnovers put the entire team defensive out of position presenting easy goals as part of a run on. Add this to the previously mentioned missing very gettable goals, it is clear why these run ons still occur. I think too many are traumatised from the 2021 Grand Final where it was simply poor defence all over the ground.



We have a couple of weaknesses down back, which given where most players down there come from is not surprising. JOD is not quiet there yet as a KPD, but we have a bit of a choice with the veteran Jones and the younger Buss to play this role. Will be interesting to see how the match committee go for the remainder of the year.



The 3rd tallish payer, the interceptor with good skills and some pace should be JOD ahead of Cleary.



Our running backs are an issue. Whilst JJ is coming to the end he and Baily Dale are very good in that role. Duryea, Bramble, Baker, Gallagher all provide run but their skills or decision making are a bit of a liability. Do we risk Jacques who is not quite ready?



We are in the hunt this year, hopefully we push forward and improve in our weaker areas enough to win it.
 
The concern is the only top eight team beaten so far is GWS.

I know we haven’t been belted and are in every game and theres some unlucky circumstances like injuries early in the year affecting a few games vs the top.

But it’s a watch. Hawthorn and Adelaide would be a good start. To truly be in the hunt need to tick some of these off.
 

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The concern is the only top eight team beaten so far is GWS.

I know we haven’t been belted and are in every game and theres some unlucky circumstances like injuries early in the year affecting a few games vs the top.

But it’s a watch. Hawthorn and Adelaide would be a good start. To truly be in the hunt need to tick some of these off.
Think the biggest concern is against 3 of the top teams we were level with minutes to go. They took their opportunities, we did not.

Simple question what are we learning from these finishes and then implementing to start having them go our way
 
Good first half of the year considering our injuries. Would love to have pinched at least one of the hard ones but we have had a lot going against us. Playing "home" games at Norwood against Brisbane and MCG against the Pies doesn't help. BTW, why have we played home games in Adelaide two years in a row??? How is that acceptable?

We've honestly looked good in every game we have played. Playing a great brand of footy right now. High scoring, attacking, high-risk ball movement has been great to watch.

We have a great draw for the second half of the year but probability tells us that we will probably lose some of the ones we should win. I think top four from here would be too much of a stretch so I'm not expecting it. I am certainly expecting a top 8 finish though and if you told me at the start of the season we would still make finals without JUH and Weightman for the whole year, Bont and Darcy for big chucks, I'd have taken that in a heartbeat.

Regardless of the final ladder finish or finals results, I hope we have plenty of enjoyable footy to watch in the second half of the year.
 
Losing the close ones is not good but if met again at the G there are valid reasons why we could easily turn the result our way


Pies No Bont, ADZ, lopsided free kick count against 6 pts to make up
Freo No Bont, ADZ, away game 16 points to make up
Lions No Bont, ADZ, early injury on a hot day lead by 39 points, 21 points to make up
Suns No Darcy, ADZ conditions in Darwin heavily favoured Suns, 11 points to make up
Cats No Darcy, ADZ, at the cattery, we had mores scoring shots, kicked badly, lopsided free kicks 11 pts to make up

I know other teams may have outs like the cats no Danger but we would have at least a 50% chance of reversing these results. So, this season I am not buying we cannot beat the better teams
 
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I hate losing as much as anyone but if learning the lessons from losing close games to Collingwood, Brisbane, Gold Coast and Geelong at their home grounds (or a toy ground in Adelaide) gives us the ammunition to prevail on preliminary final day at the MCG, I'll take that.
 
We might face the Hawks losing their last two games when we play them. How good would it be to beat them and make it 3 loses in a row for them
after their cocky BS performances in the final last year.
 
... Playing "home" games at Norwood against Brisbane and MCG against the Pies doesn't help. BTW, why have we played home games in Adelaide two years in a row??? How is that acceptable?

...
It's usually academic whether we are the nominal home or the away side in Gather Round. Everybody knows it's going to be played at a neutral ground, unless of course the Crows or the Power are involved.

Since it was introduced Gather Round has become the 23rd H&A game in the season. The other 22 games are still split 11 home and 11 away. So I imagine the boffins who formulate the season's fixtures wait to see what else they need before deciding if we're nominally at home or away.

In 2024 they needed us to play the return match against Geelong at Kardinia Park (of course) so they designated it a home game.

This year they wanted us to play a game in Brisbane (which is grassman75's fault) so they designated us to be the home side again.

The only practical differences are pretty trivial - who gets to toss the coin (and who calls), and who wears white shorts.
There are plenty of more fistworthy clouds than this one.
 
It's usually academic whether we are the nominal home or the away side in Gather Round. Everybody knows it's going to be played at a neutral ground, unless of course the Crows or the Power are involved.

Since it was introduced Gather Round has become the 23rd H&A game in the season. The other 22 games are still split 11 home and 11 away. So I imagine the boffins who formulate the season's fixtures wait to see what else they need before deciding if we're nominally at home or away.

In 2024 they needed us to play the return match against Geelong at Kardinia Park (of course) so they designated it a home game.

This year they wanted us to play a game in Brisbane (which is grassman75's fault) so they designated us to be the home side again.

The only practical differences are pretty trivial - who gets to toss the coin (and who calls), and who wears white shorts.
There are plenty of more fistworthy clouds than this one.

Thanks for explaining that to me, DW. I assumed that we were losing one of our genuine home games for it.
 
We might face the Hawks losing their last two games when we play them. How good would it be to beat them and make it 3 loses in a row for them
after their cocky BS performances in the final last year.
Newcombe may get 2 weeks for that tackle. I would be pretty comfortable our midfield could do a number on them without Newcombe and Day.
 
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Stating the obvious, but we’d need to finish 10-2 from here to get top four. With the hawks, Brisbane away, Sydney away and Adelaide to come that’s fairly unlikely given our propensity to a) give up runs of goals in a quarter to good teams, b) turn the ball over under pressure and c) miss scoring opportunities at crucial times.

The standard of footy the boys are playing is generally high, so a winning run on the way home is a possibility given the fixture is fairly benign, but we’ll need to win 2-3 of the games listed above and recent history would suggest that’s not going to happen.

More likely we finish 14-9 or thereabouts with a decent percentage, probably a home EF against hopefully whoever sneaks into the last place in the eight (Freo, Sydney, Carlton, GWS, Melbourne).
 
I expect us to play attractive football and win the vast majority of games. However it would be an unusual season not to have at least one shock loss, such as we have had in recent years against Hawthorn (when they were also-rans), West Coast, Essendon, etc.

It's a small sample group but in the two years that we have had 23 H&A games, 15 wins and good percentage would have got a team 5th (2023) or 3rd (as Geelong did in 2024). Given the evenness of the ladder down to 10th I think there's a good chance 15 wins and a high percentage will be enough to get a top 4 spot this year.

So apart from the obvious need for wins we need to maintain our high percentage.

There's something to be said for being flat track bullies and knocking up big wins against lowly teams. And - if we must lose - having only honourable losses.
 
16 wins gets you top 4 every year for past 20 years… except 2016.
We’ve added an extra game to the fixture, so the sample size is the last two seasons.

Pies, Lions and Cats are all but guaranteed to make the top four with 17+ wins.

It’ll be out of us, the Suns, Hawks and Crows fighting for that last spot in the four and the Suns have lost three fewer games than us.
 
Glass half full we have not played a bad game and we are about to get our second most important player back in Sam. Glass half empty we only in the 8 on percentage.

Possibly only 2 realistic chances of top 4. The cats who are game in front and have soft draw and the suns 2 games and only played 9 before today but they have a really hard draw from here. We need the saints to beat the suns today in an upset.
 

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I expect us to play attractive football and win the vast majority of games. However it would be an unusual season not to have at least one shock loss, such as we have had in recent years against Hawthorn (when they were also-rans), West Coast, Essendon, etc.

It's a small sample group but in the two years that we have had 23 H&A games, 15 wins and good percentage would have got a team 5th (2023) or 3rd (as Geelong did in 2024). Given the evenness of the ladder down to 10th I think there's a good chance 15 wins and a high percentage will be enough to get a top 4 spot this year.

So apart from the obvious need for wins we need to maintain our high percentage.

There's something to be said for being flat track bullies and knocking up big wins against lowly teams. And - if we must lose - having only honourable losses.
14 wins was good enough for top 4 in 2023. But I agree 15 wins with superior percentage will most likely be enough. The encouraging thing this year has been our ability to put teams to the sword so we’re every chance but simply must beat the hawks after the bye.
 
14 wins was good enough for top 4 in 2023. But I agree 15 wins with superior percentage will most likely be enough. The encouraging thing this year has been our ability to put teams to the sword so we’re every chance but simply must beat the hawks after the bye.
No Melbourne finished 4th on 16 wins in 2023.
 
Carlton finished 5th with 13.5 wins. 14 wins would’ve been enough for top 4
Sorry I don't follow your logic.
Melbourne finished with 16 wins in 4th place. So to beat them out of fourth place a side would have needed more than 16 wins, or exactly 16 wins and a percentage > 125.24

Even 15 wins wouldn't have been enough.

1748136748589.png

(Of course for a lower side to have finished higher it means it would have won more games than shown above, possibly against some of the top four sides such as Melbourne, so you could argue it was still possible under some scenarios to get in with 15 wins. But that's a level of detail I don't think either of us are proposing at this point. The fact of the matter is it didn't happen.)
 
Sorry I don't follow your logic.
Melbourne finished with 16 wins in 4th place. So to beat them out of fourth place a side would have needed more than 16 wins, or exactly 16 wins and a percentage > 125.24

Even 15 wins wouldn't have been enough.

View attachment 2324480

(Of course for a lower side to have finished higher it means it would have won more games than shown above, possibly against some of the top four sides such as Melbourne, so you could argue it was still possible under some scenarios to get in with 15 wins. But that's a level of detail I don't think either of us are proposing at this point. The fact of the matter is it didn't happen.)
The discussion has been around how many wins would be enough to finish top 4 since we went to 23 games.
Was just pointing out that 14 wins would’ve been enough for Melb to still finish top 4 in 2023. To finish top 4 you only need to better 5th.
 

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