Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[threenewpadlocks]

Lower scoring than predicted and Brissy completely bottled it with all their scoring shots compared to the crows

Squiggle takes into account both of these I believe

Also, Squiggle cares more about "is this team actuary good this year right now (such as failing to beat North)" than "reigning premiers"

 

[BEaston]

I'm sure it's been answered before, but can someone advise why the ladder at the top of the Season Predictor page, doesn't match the one that's given at the end of Round 23 (after you expand out the rounds below)?

They are both probabilistic ladders right, but even the probable wins don't match.

 

[Xtreme]

Squiggle was looking good hours ago Hawks v Crows grand final

Now normal service has resumed and Bulldogs v Crows

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Squiggle was looking good hours ago Hawks v Crows grand final

Now normal service has resumed and Bulldogs v Crows

Crazy how a 9th placed team at end of round 23 is Squiggle favourite to win the flag.

 

[Aristotle Pickett the3rd]

Wtf is this?

 

[Hobbes]

Crazy how a 9th placed team at end of round 23 is Squiggle favourite to win the flag.

It's ridiculous.

Essentially, the H&A squiggle ladder is probablistic (a modal one is offered for this end of the year) but it works the finals on a binary basis.

Let us suppose that the Bulldogs will make the finals and are a 60% chance to win each match. The squiggle predictor gives them the premiership. IRL, they're about a 13% chance.

It would make more sense for the squiggle to do a thousand sims and see who wins most often.

 

[deck]

Crazy how a 9th placed team at end of round 23 is Squiggle favourite to win the flag.

Too much emphasis on points for maybe.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Let us suppose that the Bulldogs will make the finals and are a 60% chance to win each match. The squiggle predictor gives them the premiership. IRL, they're about a 13% chance.

The flagpole might be a better tool at this point really, as it scales by finals likelihood.

It would make more sense for the squiggle to do a thousand sims and see who wins most often.

Does something similar for GF matchups, also in the flagpole section:

 

[Hobbes]

The flagpole might be a better tool at this point really, as it scales by finals likelihood.

View attachment 2397796


Does something similar for GF matchups, also in the flagpole section:

View attachment 2397792

Obviously, the “most likely grand finals” list is broken.

 

[Dr Tigris]

The flagpole might be a better tool at this point really, as it scales by finals likelihood.

View attachment 2397796


Does something similar for GF matchups, also in the flagpole section:

View attachment 2397792

That is what Flagpole is for.

I can't remember a season where all the finals teams are a shot. Amazing year from here on in.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Probably not the right thread, but has anyone else been playing Final Siren 's footy game?
I keep getting through to victorian league but my team is bascially arse compared to the teams in that league and then I get sacked

 

[Soul_Pie]

Probably not the right thread, but has anyone else been playing Final Siren 's footy game?
I keep getting through to victorian league but my team is bascially arse compared to the teams in that league and then I get sacked

It gets easier the more players you unlock with your runs, because the base players aren't that great by comparison. You have to manually unlock them from the main menu if you haven't already. If you can manage to accumulate 2+ star players coming into their prime via trade you can build a decent side.

You can basically "tank" a year in the lower state leagues as well and just build up your list from there if you're getting sacked straight away once you reach Victoria. A couple of coach traits are basically broken with how powerful they are, the one that gives you innovation points for delisting players lets you accumulate points like crazy.

Game is fantastic, btw.

 

[Crankyhawk]

It gets easier the more players you unlock with your runs, because the base players aren't that great by comparison. You have to manually unlock them from the main menu if you haven't already. If you can manage to accumulate 2+ star players coming into their prime via trade you can build a decent side.

You can basically "tank" a year in the lower state leagues as well and just build up your list from there if you're getting sacked straight away once you reach Victoria. A couple of coach traits are basically broken with how powerful they are, the one that gives you innovation points for delisting players lets you accumulate points like crazy.

Game is fantastic, btw.

Yeah finally made it to national league (no recruits apart from innovation buys) but have culture of deadly (better recruits) potential (-1 innovate threshold) and the one which gives one inno for playing in a national game; then coaches have “powerful” 2 inno extra for national win and “astute”. For better trades. But on starting national found gutsy (3 inno on loss) was a big help.

Team has now played 5 national for 2 flags in last 3 years

 

[BigVic]

 

[chazwazza]

The flagpole might be a better tool at this point really, as it scales by finals likelihood.

View attachment 2397796


Does something similar for GF matchups, also in the flagpole section:

View attachment 2397792

That Squiggle still has a Brisbane Port GF is baffling

 

[BEaston]

has squiggle jumped the shark

 

[Johnny Bananas]

That Squiggle still has a Brisbane Port GF is baffling

Yeah it had clearly been using outdated info.