The Statistics Thread

[Fossie 32]

I'm not so sure that there should be an "expectation" that our team as a whole is better than average, but it should just be average in accuracy. There's very few teams in the 10 or so years that we've had these expected accuracy stats that you can say with statistical certainty beyond just randomness are a better than average goalkicking team: Hawthorn's premiership teams in part because their small forwards were so good at kicking goals whilst winning contested possessions and under pressure (think the best version of Puopolo and Rioli) and West Coast of the last few years mainly because Kennedy is such a reliable shot for goal.

Apart from that - of 180 instances of team seasons over 10 years - virtually none of them have kicked more or less accurately than what can simply be explained by the statistical equivalent of flipping a coin 100 times and getting heads 55 of them (ie that doesn't the coin biased to heads, just like kicking a goal 55% of the time when the league average is 50% doesn't necessarily make you more accurate).

We could be trendsetters then!
We try to be better than average in everything else so we can win the flag, so why not this?
It seems quite a few games are won by one team being more accurate than the other - eg Dogs v Cats last weekend
Just can't see that it wouldn't be better if we improved in this area.

 

[Fossie 32]

McKay - 55.4%
Hawkins - 47.7%
Walker - 45.7%



We've had 36 shots from outside 50 the equal 9th most. As for expected score each shot at goal is given a percentage chance based on distance, angle, kicking foot and pressure. For example a shot at goal from the top of the goal square has a 95% chance of being a goal based on historical data going back to 2002 so therefore it's given an expected score of 5.7 (95% of 6). Each shot is goal is put through this formula and that's the total expected score.



Agree, Bont's biggest issue is his kicking from 15m-40m where he has kicked just 6 goals from 16 shots of which the majority of have been in the corridor.

We've had 36 shots from outside 50 the equal 9th most. As for expected score each shot at goal is given a percentage chance based on distance, angle, kicking foot and pressure. For example a shot at goal from the top of the goal square has a 95% chance of being a goal based on historical data going back to 2002 so therefore it's given an expected score of 5.7 (95% of 6). Each shot is goal is put through this formula and that's the total expected score.
.

Hmmm being rated first for outside 50 is great given we have had a substantial amount of shots from that range then. Maybe it suggests we should do it more often rather than passing off though need to get it into the right hands first.
I get how the expected score is calculated [did watch the video!] but again it would be based on AFL average, so we should be better than average there as well as in other areas.

 

[maddog37]

Petracca would be taking a lot more long shots at goal than our boys wouldn’t he though?

 

[Fossie 32]

Another nice stat for Jacko is that he is now equal 1st in Kicks Inside 50 - Mark Rate (65+ kicks). Essentially meaning that 21% of his kicks inside 50 results in a mark. Jacko and Bonti's rates are almost double that of Petracca.

Got anything on most Bulldogs goals in first 16 minutes of a game?

 

[Footscrazy]

Jacko displaces Crossy to move into the top 10 disposals all time for the club. Should get Granty in a couple of weeks too.

 

[the dog's kennel]

Interestingly on On The Couch last night we were 2nd on the ladder for expected points, with Melbourne 1st. Which suggests that Melbourne are having more accuracy issues than we are. They also noted that Freo were 6th on the ladder for expected points (so their accuracy is a big problem), and Essendon and West Coast were right at the bottom of the ladder (16th and 17th from memory) so they are basically only being kept in it by their great accuracy (which we certainly saw examples of when we played the Eagles last week).

Of course we shouldn't get too excited about that analysis cause defence has something to do with ladder position as well!

 

[Boristown]

Interestingly on On The Couch last night we were 2nd on the ladder for expected points, with Melbourne 1st. Which suggests that Melbourne are having more accuracy issues than we are. They also noted that Freo were 6th on the ladder for expected points (so their accuracy is a big problem), and Essendon and West Coast were right at the bottom of the ladder (16th and 17th from memory) so they are basically only being kept in it by their great accuracy (which we certainly saw examples of when we played the Eagles last week).

Of course we shouldn't get too excited about that analysis cause defence has something to do with ladder position as well!

Nah, it just means they should have won the Adelaide game based on expected score and been 1 game ahead.

 

[the dog's kennel]

Here is each clubs average score, expected score, accuracy and expected accuracy.

View attachment 1172059

I don't understand why your ladder of expected scores is so different to the ladder from On The Couch last night (which I have attached). I have no problem believing your stats over theirs, Oliver. But there is something funny going on somewhere. For example - look at Essendon - they have them at 17th. The table you quoted has them at 7th! The problem is their description is so vague and with so little info it's hard to know where the difference lies.

 

[stevieg1969]

I don't understand why your ladder of expected scores is so different to the ladder from On The Couch last night (which I have attached). I have no problem believing your stats over theirs, Oliver. But there is something funny going on somewhere. For example - look at Essendon - they have them at 17th. The table you quoted has them at 7th! The problem is their description is so vague and with so little info it's hard to know where the difference lies.

I’d say the On The Couch ladder is based on a team’s expected score v. the expected score of the team they played in a particular round - and then the associated wins/losses make up the ladder.

 

[X_box_X]

I'm not sure if this is our record, but we have won our past ten matches against interstate sides.

 

[Pugz89]

I'm not sure if this is our record, but we have won our past ten matches against interstate sides.

Here is a quirky one, we have been ahead at the final siren at every ground we have played at this year.
MCG, Marvel, MARS Stadium, Manuka Oval, Adelaide Oval, Optus Stadium, GMHBA.

 

[worbod]

Something else quirky: No player with a surname beginning with U has played so far this season. After Marra Ugle-Hagan makes his debut on Sunday, this season will have seen players take the field whose surnames begin with every letter of the alphabet. Now that [PLAYERCARD]Tristan Xerri[/PLAYERCARD] of North Melbourne has provided the league with its first ever player with an X surname, this means that 2021 is the first ever season where this could possibly have happened, as there were no players with U surnames in any team squads last year.

 

[X_box_X]

Time for an update on us giving up scores in the dying stages of quarters...

We've now given up 18.12 in the dying stages of quarters this year. As always I've defined dying stages as the last 3 minutes of total time in each quarter (i.e 30 min quarter, scores from 27:00 to 30:00).

Opposition Scoring - Quarter by Quarter (Dying Stages)
View attachment 1176198

On the other side of the coin we've scored 18.16 in the dying stages.

Western Bulldogs Scoring - Quarter by Quarter (Dying Stages)
View attachment 1176201

We've scored just 2 times in our last 12 quarters compared to the opposition scoring 10 times.

Wow, that's good. I love finding weaknesses because I take comfort knowing there's room for improvement to an already well-oiled machine.

 

[Oliver G]

Both West Coast and North Melbourne in the wet finished with better kicking efficiency than us yesterday.

 

[dogwatch]

Time for an update on us giving up scores in the dying stages of quarters...

We've now given up 18.12 in the dying stages of quarters this year. As always I've defined dying stages as the last 3 minutes of total time in each quarter (i.e 30 min quarter, scores from 27:00 to 30:00).

Opposition Scoring - Quarter by Quarter (Dying Stages)
View attachment 1176198

On the other side of the coin we've scored 18.16 in the dying stages.

Western Bulldogs Scoring - Quarter by Quarter (Dying Stages)
View attachment 1176201

We've scored just 2 times in our last 12 quarters compared to the opposition scoring 10 times and since the bye we've just scored 2.1 to 7.5.

So across the season it's not especially a weakness, even if the last three weeks have been worse (barely statistically significant). Like pretty much every club I'd suggest.

It's like free kicks. You notice them and amplify them when they go against you but when they go your way you just think "wow how good are we"?

 

[X_box_X]

Under Bevo, whenever our last Home and Away match is against an interstate side, we go on to play finals. Whenever our last Home and Away match is against a Victorian team, we miss finals.

Looking ahead at the fixture, I see we play an interstate team in the final round.

I am therefore confident we will play finals. It's written in the stars.

Can we win none of our remaining six matches to secure a finals birth?

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Can we win none of our remaining six matches to secure a finals birth?

Wouldn't be guaranteed of a finals spot.

 

[worbod]

As we approach our 2000th game, on July 25 we will play game number 1997. Guess who we're bloody well playing?

 

[Oliver G]

As we approach our 2000th game, on July 25 we will play game number 1997. Guess who we're bloody well playing?

Libba will kick a point that is then overturned by the ARC.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Round 16. North. 11.13.79
Round 17. Swans. 11.13.79
Round 18. Suns. 11.13.79

Surely a record?

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

 

[Oliver G]

Mitchell is the only current player on track to beat him who is on track to get there by game 169/170.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Round 16. North. 11.13.79
Round 17. Swans. 11.13.79
Round 18. Suns. 11.13.79

Surely a record?

Swampy has confirmed. Second time in VFL/AFL history. Geelong (9.12.66 in rounds 10-12 in 1908 the other).

Of concern is conceding 24 scoring shots a game three weeks straight …

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Did Bontempelli really set a record for the most clangers in a game today?

 

[dogwatch]

Did Bontempelli really set a record for the most clangers in a game today?

(Taken at The Temple of Bontempelli)