The Statistics Thread

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Virgin Dog

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 29, 2017
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Cool, how you finding learning r? It's on my list of things to learn... maybe some day haha. It can do some pretty powerful stuff.

In a similar vein, they've been tracking a quadruple double on the main board for some time: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/quadruple-double.364431

That one is based on kicks, handballs, marks and tackles. I'm not sure exactly how many have managed it, but there's not many. I think Dunkley is our best bet currently. Daniel Cross used to be decent at them as a good marking inside mid.
It's definitely interesting! I predominantly use SAS at work, which is vastly different both in terms of the language style, and the visualisation approaches. It's part of the reason why I wanted to learn R - try diversify my skill set a bit, and then makes it easier learning other languages. Once I'm comfortable enough with R, I wanted to move on to Python (which will be far more practical for my work anyway).

Thanks for the link, didn't know about that.

I'm pretty confident any of Bont, Macrae, Smith and Dunkley are capable of achieving it
 

worbod

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Years where it took last-round results to determine whether the Bulldogs would play finals:

YearFinals systemDid we play finals?
19284no
19314no
19424yes
19444yes
19454no
19484yes
19514yes
19544yes
19554no
19564yes
19614yes
19755no
19765yes
19845no
19865no
19875no
19885no
20058no
20178no
20198yes
20208yes
 

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dogwatch

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Years where it took last-round results to determine whether the Bulldogs would play finals:

YearFinals systemDid we play finals?
19284no
19314no
19424yes
19444yes
19454no
19484yes
19514yes
19544yes
19554no
19564yes
19614yes
19755no
19765yes
19845no
19865no
19875no
19885no
20058no
20178no
20198yes
20208yes
Amazing stuff. Thanks for posting.
Even more amazing to see that our place in the 1954 finals was in doubt until the last H&A round.

So on average - counting good years, bad years and even wooden spoon years - we are chewing our nails in the final H&A round once in every 4.6 years. Over 96 seasons it happened on 21 occasions - we made the finals 10 of those times and missed out 11 times.

No wonder we're a bunch of neurotics.
 

X_box_X

King of September
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Not surprisingly, our record in the final third of the season has historically been quite good under Bevo.

1600769415111.png


The above chart shows our record in the final seven home and away rounds of all six seasons under Bevo. We have an overall record of 26-16 with a fairly healthy percentage. This is encouraging because it shows momentum building towards the business end of the season.
 

Glaeken Oracle

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Dec 3, 2015
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Years where it took last-round results to determine whether the Bulldogs would play finals:

YearFinals systemDid we play finals?
19284no
19314no
19424yes
19444yes
19454no
19484yes
19514yes
19544yes
19554no
19564yes
19614yes
19755no
19765yes
19845no
19865no
19875no
19885no
20058no
20178no
20198yes
20208yes
Not quite accurate. 1987 we needed to def Dees last round to get in. We failed.

Edit: just re-read your post, I thought “no” meant last round wasn’t a decider, sorry.

2005 almost qualifies, with one of the worst free kicks in recorded history in round 21 gifting the game to the Dees, and ending our finals chances.
 
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Fossie 32

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Not quite accurate. 1987 we needed to def Dees last round to get in. We failed.

Edit: just re-read your post, I thought “no” meant last round wasn’t a decider, sorry.

2005 almost qualifies, with one of the worst free kicks in recorded history in round 21 gifting the game to the Dees, and ending our finals chances.
Was 2005 when that douche took a dive against Skip in the ruck contest and got a goal to win it? That sucked
 

X_box_X

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Was 2005 when that douche took a dive against Skip in the ruck contest and got a goal to win it? That sucked
Yep. We were 22 points up as time on began. I seem to recall a player got injured half way through the final term when we had all the momentum. There was a two or three minute delay, and that halted our momentum.
 

ossie_21

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Is there a close up video of that free? I was high up in the Great Southern Stand and have a hazy memory other than a sick feeling in the stomach.

Skipper bumped White but it was Minson that went up, but back in those days I’m not sure what the rules were for ruck contests. The umpire paid the free for in the back though when it was shoulder to shoulder, awful call.

All good to point the finger there, but Cooney standing around with nobody on the mark only to get the kick spoilt was stupid AF... he could have just ran down the line and launched a kick to out the play on the wing
 

Fossie 32

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Is there a close up video of that free? I was high up in the Great Southern Stand and have a hazy memory other than a sick feeling in the stomach.
Disgusting effort by White and crap decision by the ump. Ran into Skip who was looking at the ball and bounced off him and fell over. Not a great effort by Cooney to stuff around with the ball for ages allowing Davey to come in and force a throw in too.
 

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BarryMorgan

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Interesting to see Alex Keath figuring among the top speeds clocked by any Bulldog in 2020 - certainly wouldn’t have picked him to be up there.
 

Hard Ball Get

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Dec 21, 2005
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Longest time difference for x players appearing in the same team:

xDaysClubYearRoundYearRoundPlayers
18092Ess1993220159Fletcher
26237St.K190514192218Lever, McNamara
35284Carl20061202018Betts, Murphy, Simpson
44907Ess197811991EFDaniher, Heard, Madden, Watson
54172St.K20021201323Blake, Hayes, Koschitzke, Milne, Riewoldt
64150St.K20024201323Blake, Dal Santo, Hayes, Koschitzke, Milne, Riewoldt
73717Geel2002142012EFBartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Kelly, Scarlett
83710Geel200214201223Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Scarlett
93639Geel200214201213Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Scarlett, Wojcinski
103374Geel2002142011GFBartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Scarlett, Wojcinski
113318Geel200214201120Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Milburn, Scarlett, Wojcinski
123206Geel20021420114Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Milburn, Mooney, Scarlett, Wojcinski
132325Bris199882004GFAkermanis, Bradshaw, Johnson, Keating, Lappin, Leppitsch, Lynch, McRae, Notting, B.Scott, C.Scott, Voss, White
141980Geel200522010QFAblett, Bartel, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Ottens, Scarlett, Wojcinski
151939Coll20017200622Buckley, Burns, Clement, Didak, Fraser, Holland, Johnson, Licuria, Lockyer, Lonie, O'Bree, Prestigiacomo, Rocca, Tarrant, Wakelin
161574Geel200692010PFAblett, Bartel, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Stokes, Wojcinski
171560Geel200692010QFAblett, Bartel, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Stokes, Wojcinski
181547Geel2006112010QFAblett, Bartel, Blake, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Stokes, Wojcinski
191237Geel200732010QFAblett, Bartel, Blake, Byrnes, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hawkins, Hunt, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Selwood, Varcoe, Wojcinski
201147Geel2007152010QFAblett, Bartel, Blake, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Hawkins, Hunt, Johnson, Kelly, Ling, Mackie, Milburn, Mooney, Ottens, Scarlett, Selwood, Stokes, Varcoe, Wojcinski
21391Geel2005420067Ablett, Bartel, Chapman, Corey, Enright, Gardiner, Harley, Hunt, D.Johnson, S.Johnson, Kelly, King, Kingsley, Ling, Milburn, Ottens, Playfair, Riccardi, Rooke, Scarlett, Tenace
22314W.B.20051020062Boyd, Cooney, Cross, Eagleton, Giansiracusa, Gilbee, Grant, Griffen, Hahn, Hargrave, Johnson, Lake, McMahon, Minson, Morgan, Morris, Murphy, Power, Robbins, Skipper, Smith, West
According to this post on the stats board, we have the longest period of time between fielding the exact same 22.
 

Snarls Barkley

Norm Smith Medallist
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Don’t know how to word this so hopefully it makes sense.

I believe Dahlhaus just joined Whitten as the only Bulldog Grand Finalist to play in multiple Grand Finals.
 

doggiesin08

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Is there a clean data source for round by round team lineup changes someone knows of? I’m interested to see if there is a big difference in average unforced team changes (i.e. players omitted) following wins by < 1 goal vs losses by < 1 goal.
 

Oliver Gigacz

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Is there a clean data source for round by round team lineup changes someone knows of? I’m interested to see if there is a big difference in average unforced team changes (i.e. players omitted) following wins by < 1 goal vs losses by < 1 goal.
I don't believe there is currently, you would have to work it out manually by going through the AFL Team Lineups round by round.

I will say that this is a feature that we are planning on including in AF 2.0 which will be a full rebuild and upgrade of AustralianFootball which we hope will be live in the next year or two.
 

doggiesin08

Norm Smith Medallist
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I don't believe there is currently, you would have to work it out manually by going through the AFL Team Lineups round by round.

I will say that this is a feature that we are planning on including in AF 2.0 which will be a full rebuild and upgrade of AustralianFootball which we hope will be live in the next year or two.
Thank you 👍🏻
 

Sentinel

Premiership Player
Mar 15, 2012
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According to this post on the stats board, we have the longest period of time between fielding the exact same 22.
Remarkably, this Bulldogs 22 (of round 10 2005 & rounds 1-2 2006) is the only instance in 124 years of VFL/AFL history of a completely identical lineup playing from one season to the next.

There's always that stat brought up each year of 'no complete premiership lineup has ever played together again' - in reality no lineup from any team, from any round, from any year, has ever played together again across different seasons besides this one.

An older post I'd made about this:
Sentinel said:
For some perspective, a few stats on the players who played or missed those games which show how extraordinary this is:

- Players who played in 2005 but missed round 10: Ray (played 14 games in 2005 out of a possible 22), Birrs (12), Street (11), Rawlings (10), Faulkner (8), Bowden (8), Bandy (7), Darcy (6) plus 5 others who played 5 or less.
- Players who played in 2006 but missed rounds 1 & 2: Street (played 21 games in 2006 out of a possible 24), Ray (21), Montgomery (17), Wight (8) plus a 7 others who played 5 or less.
- Players who featured in those 3 games but played less than half of the games in either season: Morgan (only 4 games in 2005 and 3 in 2006), Skipper (9 games in 2005), Bob Murphy (9 games in 2006), Power (10 games in 2005), Hahn (11 games in 2006)

Across both seasons Farren Ray played 35 games of a possible 46 and missed all 3 of these matches, Peter Street played 32 and missed them too. On the other hand, Adam Morgan played just 7 games across both seasons but featured in all of the 3 matches.

On their own none of these player statistics are at all remarkable, but the fact they all needed to coincide for this to have occured shows just how amazing it is and why its only happened once before.

Obviously nowhere near as extreme but it reminds me of the incredible number of unique ways to shuffle a deck of cards. Little wonder no premiership side has never again played before given it's so difficult to get a 22 from any team in any round to play together again in another season.
 
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