Bring out the Venn diagram Esti.
No Oppo Supporters The Umpiring thread.
- Thread starter Clems Knee
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Bring out the Venn diagram Esti.
ydraw
Norm Smith Medallist
- Apr 27, 2015
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Not teams , but particular players. A big part of the reason for West Coasts longstanding free kick differential is that youve had a lot of players who are duckers and play for free kicks a lot. The main ones being Cox, Selwood, Shuey And Darling. Umpires need to get better at not falling for it.
I agree, and if it is such a good strategy I am surprised more clubs don't do it:
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_rankings?year=2017&rt=LA&st=FF
West cost only come in equal 10th with that being Shuey tied with a bunch including Neale. Fyfe at 5.
In 16 west coast had 2 in the top 10. You guys had zero.
Both teams seem to drop right down in 15, 14, 13 from my quick look.
Here's the problem. Some players "duck" and is deem good guys that need protection (e.g. Selwood, Shuey), winning free kicks. Some are deem as cheaters and can't win a free no matter what (e.g. Linsey Thomas, Walters)
Btw, trying to milk free kick is against the spirit of sportsmanship and the game. I won't consider it "good strategy".
- Apr 25, 2011
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I do pity the umpires in that they don't adjudicate on one set of rules written in stone since they were a kid. Rules are changed, "interpretations" get changed, rule of the week to be enforced (I hate for the same as the next), instruction to put away the whistle on some things is forced on them.
Everyone can go and <insert something nasty> about the entertainment side of the game, it is a sport. Sport has rules, those rules need to be enforced. The minute you optionally have rules, it is a joke. Teams recruit players based on the rules, there is a change to instruction and the recruit that you have is not as useful anymore. We recruited with a strong blockage/team defence and would have been out-coached eventually as strategies and tactics develop to counter it, but we got out-coached by the marketing department at AFL house who wanted a faster moving game because it looks better. Sure, that was probably better for the sport - but that has to be by rule changes for the sport set in stone for decades and not a whimsical flip flopping set of rules - and not for the sake of the marketing department.
The other major difficulty for the umpires are those areas where they are either forced or can make a ruling based on things without evidence. e.g. intent - so some things that aren't intended get interpreted as intended - or left alone as the umpire wasn't sure/didn't think the really nice bloke would do it, such as deliberate out of bounds. Crowley going over the boundary line at the cats game into their area, was a rules infringement - but the umps didn't see who did it and a decision was made without evidence - that's the sort of thing in a game with cameras that should be noted and either a fine imposed later or a free kick awarded from the center after the next goal or start of quarter.
Everyone can go and <insert something nasty> about the entertainment side of the game, it is a sport. Sport has rules, those rules need to be enforced. The minute you optionally have rules, it is a joke. Teams recruit players based on the rules, there is a change to instruction and the recruit that you have is not as useful anymore. We recruited with a strong blockage/team defence and would have been out-coached eventually as strategies and tactics develop to counter it, but we got out-coached by the marketing department at AFL house who wanted a faster moving game because it looks better. Sure, that was probably better for the sport - but that has to be by rule changes for the sport set in stone for decades and not a whimsical flip flopping set of rules - and not for the sake of the marketing department.
The other major difficulty for the umpires are those areas where they are either forced or can make a ruling based on things without evidence. e.g. intent - so some things that aren't intended get interpreted as intended - or left alone as the umpire wasn't sure/didn't think the really nice bloke would do it, such as deliberate out of bounds. Crowley going over the boundary line at the cats game into their area, was a rules infringement - but the umps didn't see who did it and a decision was made without evidence - that's the sort of thing in a game with cameras that should be noted and either a fine imposed later or a free kick awarded from the center after the next goal or start of quarter.
- Thread starter
- #306
Yeh, cheating is such a good strategy. More teams should do it.
Only Cox was around for the whole of the time that West Coast has been shown to have a clear and sustained advantage due to umpiring decisions.
The same article I quoted to prove this advantage: http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...ics-explains-free-kick-counts-2017-afl-season also looked at individuals.
Of course players who get the ball more often (not given the ball like uncontested padding in the backline) should get more free kicks. So the author compared free kicks to contested possessions:
Above the red line are players that got more free kicks than would be expected for the amount of ball they got.
Only Luke Shuey is featured as benefitting from a "good technique" at picking up free kicks.
Joel Selwood is in a league of his own at "drawing" a free kick, but noted simulators Christensen, McLean, Miles and Cotchin are up there.
Priddis is the other West Coast player mentioned, but it is clear he gets no advantage. Fyfe and Josh Kennedy (Sydney) are the two stand out "poor simulating technique" contested possession beasts.
What does it all mean?
I think it shows that there are players from other clubs who get benefits from umpiring decisions that are more than would be expected. West Coast only have one standout free kick farmer.
This would suggest that the West Coast umpiring advantage is not clearly related to a style of play by the West Coast players that has been developed over the last 17 years.
It's something else.
- Jul 20, 2014
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Great graph. Looking at where West, Priddis, Fyfe and Danger are, I'll be putting some speculative money on Cripps for a Brownlow on the basis of that
Was going to see how the brownlow votes match up. From memory Shuey is a posted below expected, and Priddis above.
- Jul 5, 2011
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These are the average free kick differentials for us each year:
2009 = -1.3
2010 = +1
2011 = +1.1
2012 = +1.1
2013 = -1.3
2014 = -2.5
2015 = -2.2
2016 = -0.5
Any suggestions of there being a conspiracy is laughable.
Umpires do not affect the outcome of a game, go watch a neutral game, how often do you get outraged that umpires affected the result?
Having said that, if this thread helps quarantine all the umpire whinging posts from the autopsy threads then I'm all for it.
2009 = -1.3
2010 = +1
2011 = +1.1
2012 = +1.1
2013 = -1.3
2014 = -2.5
2015 = -2.2
2016 = -0.5
Any suggestions of there being a conspiracy is laughable.
Umpires do not affect the outcome of a game, go watch a neutral game, how often do you get outraged that umpires affected the result?
Having said that, if this thread helps quarantine all the umpire whinging posts from the autopsy threads then I'm all for it.
- Jul 2, 2013
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No, you are wrong.
Last year I watched the finals series and saw the Western Bulldogs get looked after enough to give them a premiership.
- Thread starter
- #311
Your stats are the Fremantle free kick differential. There is no suggestion that Freo gets regularly shafted by umpiring generally. And those stats agree with that.
One suggestion is that particular umpires may be responsible for a free kick differential when they umpire Fremantle games. I haven't seen much more than anecdotal evidence to support that. If Fisher has umpired less than 10 games involving Fremantle, then no stats would be reliable enough anyway. If it was true, the free kick differential you listed wouldn't show it anyway.
The main finding from the statistics we've seen on this thread is that over the last 17 years the West Coast Eagles have gained a clear and consistent advantage from the umpires far and above that of any other team. The advantage is on top of home ground advantage and the advantage of playing an interstate team, both of which also affect umpiring decisions.
If you think that is a conspiracy, you are being wilfully stupid. The West Coast umpiring advantage is not a conspiracy, it's fact, and your list did not address that. Now the reason behind the West Coast umpiring advantage? There's room for conspiracy theories there.
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There's a logical explanation for all this. The umpiring profession tends to attract egotistical knobs, and the eagles fanbase contains more egotistical knobs than any other.
Ergo, the odds are that eagles supporters are always going to be overrepresented in the umpiring ranks.
Ergo, the odds are that eagles supporters are always going to be overrepresented in the umpiring ranks.
to all the eagles supporters wandering in here and thinking we are delusional for even having this thread...is it not delusional to think that the free kick differential you enjoy for home games is normal?
ydraw
Norm Smith Medallist
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In my experience literally every Eagles fans thinks they deserve each and every one of those free kicks. And they'll give reasons related to them being the greatest team of all time in order to convince themselves that they deserve them all.
At West Coast we prefer the personal touch of underworld bikie links.
Thanks for your 'insightful' contribution (avoids eye contact). Did George leave the gate open again?
No problem, just click here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/forums/bay-13.138/ to find your way back home.
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oh oh.
The ruckus crew is here
The ruckus crew is here
sportsmaniac89
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In regards to the bolded, Leigh Fisher has umpired 11 games involving Fremantle.
After his first 3 games, the free kick tally was
Freo For - 47
Freo Against - 44
This doesn't point to anything overtly specific which is encouraging.
His last 8 games however
Freo For - 115
Freo Against - 166
That's an average of just under 7 free kicks more to the opposition in any Freo game he umpires.
Given that the opposition have a 6.5 to 7 free kick head start on Freo in recent games umpires by Leigh Fisher, it actually makes you wonder whether the game is truly on a level playing field.
In those games also, the best differential has been -2 (Round 11, 2015).
The worst differential was -14 (Round 7, 2015) with the free kick count in that game early in the 3rd quarter being 17-2 in favour of the Bulldogs.
It's easy to get the rub of the umpiring green when your team has so many one percenters!
"I think sometimes saying you've rung the umpires and got some clarification around some rules can have a benefit," Scott said.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-05-05/umpires-rocket-could-benefit-suns-claims-chris-scott
So Chris Scott and Rodney Eade both apparently think that complaining to the umpire panel can pay off. But you never hear of Freo doing it. In fact Lyon this week actively dismissed the idea he would do it. Is that just him being proud? If he's doing it behind closed doors you wouldn't know it.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-05-05/umpires-rocket-could-benefit-suns-claims-chris-scott
So Chris Scott and Rodney Eade both apparently think that complaining to the umpire panel can pay off. But you never hear of Freo doing it. In fact Lyon this week actively dismissed the idea he would do it. Is that just him being proud? If he's doing it behind closed doors you wouldn't know it.
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