"They'll be top 6...guaranteed'

[the ranger]

They're just building us up so they can cut us down again. There's no way we should be expecting Top 6. That would be an incredible result at this stage of our development. We're a chance to sneak into the 8 though.

 

[_RT_]

Had a play around on the predictor on the AFL site and best case scenario I've got us finishing 6th 0.3% ahead the Swans in 7th, meaning we would play at the G.

The big games for us IMO are:
- Round 13 vs Brisbane at the Gabba
- Round 14 vs Melbourne at the MCG
- Round 16 vs Essendon at the MCG
- Round 17 vs Gold Coast at Cairns
- Round 21 vs Sydney at the MCG
- Round 22 vs Melbourne at the MCG
- Round 23 vs Adelaide at AAMI
- Round 24 vs Kangaroos at Etihad

Those 8 games are vital for us if we want to make the 8, we would need to win at least 7 of them IMO.

The games I don't see us winning are:
- Round 12 vs Sydney, not many teams have won coming off the bye.
- Round 15 vs Carlton, think they'll still be a little too good for us.
- Round 18 vs Geelong, a class or 2 above us at the moment.
- Round 20 vs West Coast coming off the bye and playing in Perth is a big ask.

For the record I still think we'll end up around 12th as we're bound to hit the wall sooner or later with such a young group.

 

[Roar Metre]

+1 on the great analysis from the Pies poster. Really broke the season down, good read. Going into the next 4 games we need to win 3-4 if we are to have a genuine chance. To be honest I'd be a bit disappointed if we lose any of them, but the Swans at the SCG coming off the bye is a tough ask.

I'm getting up and about even thinking we are a shot at finals even if it is slim, hardly going to get ahead of myself like King and the dogs game still sticks out to me - but if we can play hard footy and improve our consistency, we should get some more good wins on the board.

Looking at that list RT, there a definately a bunch of pretty close calls at this stage - but we are in a better position now than we have been for a long time to knock off a fair few of those sides.

 

[Tiger_Stripes]

Highly doubtful we can finish sixth. If we're lucky eighth. Being a young team we've proven already we can't remain mentally switched on for 100% of the time, meaning we'll throw games we should win. As much as we need to beat Sydney, I see that as the biggest bogey game, most likely to lose. The bye, the travel and the smaller size of the SCG will make it a cauldron with Sydney's oppressive play. That said, if we win there, the season could get bloody interesting.

Won't beat Carltank, West Coast or Geelong.

 

[Roachy8]

Quite a lot of hyperbole going on both in the media and around the traps as well.

IF we get a good run with injury from here on in to our 'top 6 players' and also win the games we "should" win, then we will be banging on the door of the final 8.
Problem is, you can not influence what other contenders will do... only what we are doing.
Essendon, Swans, West Coast, Freo, Dogs and even Saints will be fighting it out for spots 5 to 10 with us I reckon.

Let's just make sure we beat Port this Saturday, & beat them well to improve our %. Then we can take the break and plan for the Swans the week after.

That game right there will go a long way towards determining our final spot I reckon.

 

[CoggaRules]

King is purely trying to pump our tyres in an effort to deflect the young group's focus on the main mission and that is develop and improve week to week.
He wants us to do a tiger of old and capitulate when all were hailing our arrival.

As for RT's assessments, I agree to an extent, but everything goes out the ****ing door if we fall asleep this Saturday night and let the power ambush us.

IMO the next test for this young side is to put away teams that are where we were at.
Once we accomplish that, then we ready ourselves for the acid test against the Swans at the SCG. I dont rate the "Lose After the bye" shit, that is commonly brought out. Since in our case, the bye cant be anything but a plus, after an energy sapping game in Darwin.

At the end of the day, as I keep on suggesting, we play our A game, I am not scared of any other team.

 

[The Goon]

Highly doubtful we can finish sixth. If we're lucky eighth. Being a young team we've proven already we can't remain mentally switched on for 100% of the time, meaning we'll throw games we should win. As much as we need to beat Sydney, I see that as the biggest bogey game, most likely to lose. The bye, the travel and the smaller size of the SCG will make it a cauldron with Sydney's oppressive play. That said, if we win there, the season could get bloody interesting.

Won't beat Carltank, West Coast or Geelong.

Not sure why you think we can't beat West Coast. Granted it's an ask at Subi coming off the bye and with their ruck stocks, but certainly not impossible. We seem to play ok at Subi and match up reasonably well against WC (rucks excepted). The bye may even be an advantage at that stage of the season. Right now I'd give us at least 30% chance of winning that game.

 

[Greggy]

King is purely trying to pump our tyres in an effort to deflect the young group's focus on the main mission and that is develop and improve week to week.
He wants us to do a tiger of old and capitulate when all were hailing our arrival.

As for RT's assessments, I agree to an extent, but everything goes out the ****ing door if we fall asleep this Saturday night and let the power ambush us.

IMO the next test for this young side is to put away teams that are where we were at.
Once we accomplish that, then we ready ourselves for the acid test against the Swans at the SCG. I dont rate the "Lose After the bye" shit, that is commonly brought out. Since in our case, the bye cant be anything but a plus, after an energy sapping game in Darwin.

At the end of the day, as I keep on suggesting, we play our A game, I am not scared of any other team.

Yeah I totally agree, King's got his agenda against Richmond, he wants to see us fail and he knows 6 is probably just beyond us. I liked Robbo's dig at King over the disposal efficiency, "They're number 1 since you left the club", King had to add, "Yeah Me, Terry and Wayne (I think) were the best kicks at the club", I bet Newman, Lids and Browny would love to hear that, planker.

 

[Harvey Leadpipe]

On your current form you'd almost agree, but you have to base your position around how the rest of the competition is currently performing, and how they will continue to perform.

I was amazed he said top 6 guaranteed, but he likes making the big calls Kingy.

I know I'm Collingwood, but I've enjoyed seeing Richmond do well and thought about it post Kings comment, so hopefully you don't mind me posting!

Here's how I see it:


Will definitely finish above (or ... "guaranteed"):

Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Gold Coast
North Melbourne

They should hold positions 14-17 on the ladder, giving you, at absolute worst, 13th.

Teams you should finish above, if form almost half-way through the season is maintained:

St. Kilda
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne

Melbourne are Richmond, just not as developed, not as mentally tough, doesn't have the supporter base and isn't playing with as much confidence in the coach as Richmond. Can't see their season gaining enough movement to go past you boys.

Dogs were prelim players last year, but let's face it: they're shot. Yeah they'll come back from 123 points against the Spooner's, but nothing indicates they will better the Richmond team. I actually tipped you against them, and Essendon too; really suprised they beat you. Regardless, AFL isn't scissors-paper-rock, and over the full 24 rounds and 22 games, you should be ahead of them in the long run.

Saints. This one is tougher, because they still have a lot of stars; they could finish top 6, they could completely bottom out. For me, 7th-13th, and more likely to be towards the bottom unless they win at least 2 out of the next 4 weeks. I see them winning 1 at most.

That's 11th, 12th and 13th. So now you're 10th at worst.

Teams you're competing against:

Adelaide
Sydney
West Coast
Fremantle

Adelaide aren't a great side at the moment, but their draw is favourable. If they can use this and put in some good performances, they might turn their season around. Almost a should beat category, but their capable, like Richmond, of solid performances.

West Coast have been a revelation, but their style is taxing, whether their players are capable of sustaining the full press physically and mentally over an entire season will be interesting to see. This week should clear up this a little bit more.

Sydney and Fremantle the other two. Both travel a bit, it should come down to how they fare away from home. Fremantle more likely to be above you guys I think, but you should be in the mix.

Won't finish ahead of:

Collingwood
Geelong
Carlton
Hawthorn

^Guaranteed to finish below Collingwood/Geelong/Carlton, Hawthorn 90% for mine. Essendon are the 5th best side at the moment and, despite last weeks result, should finish above Richmond.

So that, in my opinion, means Richmond should finish at best 6th, at worst 10th.

I'd settle for 8th, with an "away" game win against Essendon, losing in a Semi-final to either Carlton, Hawthorn or Geelong.

My ladder prediction now:

Collingwood
Geelong
Carlton
Hawthorn
Essendon
West Coast
Fremantle
Richmond
---
Syd
St.Kilda
Adelaide
Melbourne

Amazing progress and an opportunity to get to a prelim next year.

That's how I see it anyway, good luck for the year *edit: Wow that was long. Hopefully it makes sense

Far too analytical and sensible for a post like this to be delivered by an opposition supporter. Surely you could have finished it off with you telling us to go and slag on our coach or something like that .

Slightly optimistic for mine though.

For the record I still think we'll end up around 12th as we're bound to hit the wall sooner or later with such a young group.

Yep, agree. And throw in inconsistent performances too.

 

[TOOs_Finest]

Going to take a lot of 'hollow wins' David.

Won't get in the top 6 this year is my prediction.

Haha, spot on.

 

[True Thylacine]

I stopped listening to what that w***er said about us from his original vitriole after his exit from Punt Rd. I haven't found a reason to start again since.

 

[Rodney Dangerfield]

Thought same as cogga. King is doing a reverse mozz on us.

I'm with Roachy just worry about this week alone,not even thinking finals.
Still a way to go and the game I give us no chance whatsoever is Sydney in Sydney.Small ground does not suit and they have some big boys who we just can't match on that ground.

 

[nut]

Grimes and Moore are big losses, Our defence will need to stand up?? Goo? Thursfield??? I dont see us be able defend low scores.... so we will need to out play sides in both the midfield and our forwards cant afford to have a bad day.

Too much is dependant on our midfielders in my view. They are young and will have off days. ....

This season could go either way from here in my view and injuries will play the biggest part.

At the moment we are playing below ourselves in my opinion. Slowly improving but something as simple as Grimes going down could trigger a huge step backwards.

Must beat Port. The Bye then gives us a chance to regroup and settle. Having 2 byes in the last half of the year is going to help too....

 

[Martin#4]

It's been well documented that Dimma was obviously an assisstant under Clarkson when he was appointed at Hawthorn in 2005 to start rebuilding the club which resulted in premiership success in 2008.

Dimma seems to be employing a similar rebuilding technique he would have learnt being an assisstant at Hawthorn and I noticed we are tracking quite similarly to Hawthorn during their rebuilding phase.

In the first year of the rebuild they finished 14th with 5 wins, in our first year of the "new" rebuild we finished 15th with 6 wins,

Second year of the rebuild, Hawks finished 11th with 9 wins, we are currently sitting 9th with 4 wins and a draw and probably have about another 6-8 winnable games left;
Close to guarantees
-R10 v Port (TIO)
-R13 v Lions (Gabba)
-R17 v GCFC (Cazalys)

Possible Danger Games but with our quality a good chance
-R14 v Demons (MCG)
-R21 v Swans (MCG)
-R22 v Melbourne (MCG)
-R24 v North Melb (Etihad)

Then we obviously have Sydney at SCG and Adelaide at AAMI, with the Crows game probably being a more realistic chance for us.

Even if we do slip up against one of the danger games remember we are capable of possibly taking a scalp in either Carlton or Essendon when we play them in back to back rounds (Perhaps season defining games?)

And obviously a win against Geelong or WCE in Perth would be a massive ask and we can be safe in saying we can take those losses on the chin, but would be happy with competitive efforts against either teams (either though I dont think Geelong are as good as they were a couple of years back, nor are as good as the degree the media seems to be pumping them up)

Therefore we should at least finish with 7 wins, probably closer to the 10/11 mark + 1 draw (and hopefully no more), meaning we finish with between 42-46 points which will usually be enough to scrape into 8th position.

Obviously these are just predictions and we cant afford to slip up against easier teams and we need to put in good performances and take wins in those 50/50 danger games.

But back to my initial point even if we don't make the 8, 9th looks like a likely finish for us and instead of being doom and gloom about not making the 8, this year started off as being another development year where we wanted to blood youngsters and get a few extra wins and be competitive. the last thing we want is to overrate our list and start taking short-cuts (like trying to trade away draft picks for ready made players from other clubs at the end of this season to try and get into the 8 next season and end up destroying what could be a premiership winning list if we add a few more good youngsters)

Even if we finish 9th this year we will be higher than were the Hawks were at the end of their second year of the rebuild. At the end of their third year (2007) they made the 8 (finished 5th) and then in 2008 won the flag.

This means next year I think it's reasonable to expect finals (not just by comparing us to hawks but on where our list seems to be atm). Even if we don't go on to win a flag in 2013 (4th year of rebuild) ill be very happy if we make the 8, 2 years in a row 2012 and 2013, build some finals experience and then win the flag in 2014.

I think Dimma should be commended getting us to where we are atm, tracking slightly ahead of where the hawks were in their rebuild whilst IN A COMPROMISED DRAFT SITUATION, imagine where we'd be if the drafts wern't compromised

Plus we have more members than Carltank, so clearly we will be a stronger force in years to come when we are actually top 4 and challenging for a flag.

I thinnk finals are a definite possibility, provided we nail the easy games and put away the slightly tougher games against 2xdemons, sydney (in melbourne), north.

 

[Slattery_20]

I'm with that guy ^^^. Finals are a definite possibility.
I've got you with 5-6 more wins (win North, lose Sydney, split the Demons games)about 9th. Bit tricky to see another 7-8 wins from here to lock away top 6.

David King is one of those guys where you get the idea he really doesn't do a lot of homework.

 

[nut]

I still dont think we have "clicked" into top gear yet.... The bombers have shown what they can do in top gear, but it's reliant on having their best team on the park.

If we cop 1-2 more injuries we will probably never hit top gear this season. Grimes is a HUGE loss even though he is in his first real season.

We are a side that will need everything to go our way.... to early for predictions....

Watch Melbourne come hope in a flurry.....

 

[Maroo]

Yeah I totally agree, King's got his agenda against Richmond, he wants to see us fail and he knows 6 is probably just beyond us. I liked Robbo's dig at King over the disposal efficiency, "They're number 1 since you left the club", King had to add, "Yeah Me, Terry and Wayne (I think) were the best kicks at the club", I bet Newman, Lids and Browny would love to hear that, planker.

It was him, Rawlings & McCrae that he mentioned, but he quite clearly was joking, and said as much after making the comment, which was a direct follow up to Robbo saying that Richmond hasn't been able to kick for 15 years.

I hate the bloke too, but you've taken him out of context a little, and it's pretty inflammatory.

 

[TigerTime88]

I will be happy with winning this week for starters!

 

[Greggy]

It was him, Rawlings & McCrae that he mentioned, but he quite clearly was joking, and said as much after making the comment, which was a direct follow up to Robbo saying that Richmond hasn't been able to kick for 15 years.

I hate the bloke too, but you've taken him out of context a little, and it's pretty inflammatory.

Nah mate, he may have said it jokingly but he believes it.

 

[scarecrow2k1]

In regards to coming off the Bye, had seen an analyses from the last time the league had a bye (which admittedly is a long time ago) which has a similar trend in the early part of the season, that teams were losing coming off the bye, but later in the season they actually had a winning record coming off the bye.
Suggesting early in the season it's better to work on fitness, game plans and match practice, but later in the season the rest is just more important.

 

[Maroo]

Nah mate, he may have said it jokingly but he believes it.

He may be a ********, but he's not completely stupid.

Jade Rawlings couldn't kick it over a jam tin.

 

[Bazzar]

For a knobhead he makes some good points.

"I think their attitude for the contest is one thing that they pride themselves on now and it's terrific," King said.


"They're playing finals football. When you watch them play, that is sustainable because they're not limping over the line, they're not playing safe footy, they are playing brave, contested footy.


"They'll make the finals. They'll be top six, guaranteed."

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl...op-eight-in-2011/story-e6frf3e3-1226063313614

 

[Calcium Man]

Got to disagree about the contested footy comment. We are playing a fast run and spread game. Our contested footy is way down this year but I personally believe it's more so guys like Dusty, Jacko and foley are learning more of an outside game.

 

[Bazzar]

Got to disagree about the contested footy comment. We are playing a fast run and spread game. Our contested footy is way down this year but I personally believe it's more so guys like Dusty, Jacko and foley are learning more of an outside game.

I think he is referring to the way we are contesting the footy as a whole, and not the amount of contested ball. Their is a difference.

 

[CoggaRules]

Got to disagree about the contested footy comment. We are playing a fast run and spread game. Our contested footy is way down this year but I personally believe it's more so guys like Dusty, Jacko and foley are learning more of an outside game.

Dude, you can play fast run and spread game all you like, but you need to get the ball first and you get it by winning contests...Go ask Rance, Cotch and a few others how that happens..