Thomas/Pendlebury V Ellis/Dowler

[soupofficial]

Many people sook at draft comparison threads, but chins up, you don't have to be sad at this one really.
In the draft 2 years ago, you guys had picks 2 and 5, and Hawthorn had 3 and 6. Collingwood went with a couple of unexpected choices, while Hawthorn's were for players that the pundits were generally keen on (though Dowler has his injury cloud).
At the end of their second pre-season, your choices are looking pretty alright. 16 very promising games out of Thomas, and Pendlebury making it into a reasonably successful team for 9 games in his first season - you'd say that both would have exceeded expectations, and are showing signs that they could be 10 year players for the club.
On the other hand, Hawthorn's 2 picks have played 2 games between them, for a total of 6 disposals. Neither of them were selected in our first round NAB cup match, or dominated any of the VFL matches they were involved in last season. Ellis has had an injury interrupted summer, and is still quite underweight, while dowler hasn't put on much bulk, and isn't able to assert himself on the ground in our pre-season practice matches.

So what do you think of Hawthorn's choices compared to Collingwood's? I'm sure almost all of you would be pretty pleased to date, but is there hope for Ellis and Dowler to match / overtake your two at any point?

 

[spartan-magpie]

ill give u a short anwer... and by no means am i being a smartarse... we have 2 superstars in the making... ur boys will be servicable at best... not matchwinners... i understand its still early days and wont know for 2-3 years... but im pretty sure im right about this one....

 

[M-Train]

As a collingwood supporter, i have been very pleased with the progress of Thomas and Pendelbury. Everyone said we were certain to pick Ellis with pick 2, Collingwood surprised and picked up Thomas.

In Thomas, we have a pure footballer whos foot skills arent the best yet, but he definately knows how to find the ball and thrill the crowds. We now have potentially the face of Collingwood after Buckley, and these type of marketable 'franchise' players dont come easy.

In regards to Pendelbury, i was like who the hell was he, as i remember he was on hardly anyone's mock drafts.. here we go again, the pies have picked another smokey.. anyways, i have been most impressed with Pendelbury's ability to find the ball and make his way through traffic. We have a starting centreman here for the next 10 years..

Thats enough of Collingwood, im sure Ellis will become a good player, its just that he is a bit light, although he had his year 12 last year, he is bound to get some games this year. Havent seen alot of Dowler but I like his size and im sure he will compliment Franklin in the Hawks forward line for the next decade.

At the moment, you would have to say thomas/pendelbury are ahead of ellis/dowler.

 

[Barwick17]

Very happy with the pies choices. Ellis may turn out to be very good but will require another couple of years, as he played school footy last year and has had setbacks this year, but im still happy we took thomas. Pendlebury is a ball magnet and has a great scope for improvement. Could be a star if he is prepared to work on his game.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Ridiculous thread at this stage of their careers, however what the hell.

Thomas and Pendlebury have both shown infinitely more than Ellis and Dowler, but that means nil. Its impossible to tell.

Pendlebury was a bit of a surprise pick at 5. Picking him up so high is looking at this early stage like a masterstroke. However Dowler was also a risky pick-up, and the results of that will not be known for a few years. A goal to goal line including Roughead, Franklin, Dowler, and Croad with Hodge in the middle could be very formidable for many years.

I'm also extremely happy with Thomas, but whether he'll be a better player than Ellis, who knows. Ellis may be small but Thomas aint much bigger. They'll both be big enough in time.

 

[pocketrocket#24]

ill give u a short anwer... and by no means am i being a smartarse... we have 2 superstars in the making... ur boys will be servicable at best... not matchwinners... i understand its still early days and wont know for 2-3 years... but im pretty sure im right about this one....

stupid predictable naive response.
peanut.

 

[soupofficial]

that's interesting that pendlebury is seen as a centreman, he has struck me as a utility type so far, but many players move onto the ball once they bulk up and learn more.

i agree timmy, it's too early to pretend to know things for sure, but it was an open-ended question that didn't demand a yes or no answer.
quite a few hawthorn supporters are starting to become a bit concerned about the progress of dowler, because his TAC cup gamestyle hasn't shown many signs of being transferred to box hill/hawthorn yet. he has good hands and feet, and the problem seems to be mental - he isn't asserting himself, or providing any physical presence. he could get away with it in the underage competitions because he was talented, but things like this get found out at AFL level. is it just a confidence/development thing? time will tell. at this point in time though, there's uncertainty about his ability to get many games for hawthorn in 2007. thomas and pendlebury don't really have that question mark over them, which is a pretty significant difference.

to a lesser extent, ellis has the question mark too. the position he plays doesn't require the same amount of physical presence, but we really do have half a dozen other developing players who can fill the outside-mid role (tuck, muston, young, smith, bateman, clarke, ladson), so he's going to have to perform to get a look in.

for my own sake, i certainly hope that ellis and dowler "click", and go on to play central roles for hawthorn. the odds of that happening seem lower than those of thomas and pendlebury at this stage though, so it's an interesting one to ponder.

 

[Jabso]

Pendlebury may be tall, kinda skinny and have fantastic evading skills but his strength is his inside work. He doesn't bust heads but he gets the ball, evades opposition players and lays off a perfect handball or gets a clearance. In fact IMO his weakness is his outside game. He is built like an outside mid/utility but he is a Dal Santo type.

Thomas will at least be a wingman, but I still think he can go in the middle. He would be an outside midfielder but he has the uncanny abilty of picking up the ball and getting a handball off all in one motion. I think even at this stage of his career he is a wingman before being a small forward.

I haven't seen much of Dowler and Ellis but Ellis was as much of a risk as Thomas IMO. Ellis was risky because there was a risk he'd end up being a vanilla outside midfielder at worst. Thomas was a risk because he could of ended up being an inconsistant and flashy forward at worst. I honestly believe the fact that Ellis wasn't prepared to play footy year 1 might of turned us off him and it is not unreasonable to assume that it would hinder his development. Either way both Dowler and Ellis need time just because of their types (skinny outsidish mid and injury interrupted key forward).

 

[Coin_Toss]

It's too early to tell, however Pendlebury and Thomas by the look of things have the ability to play for 10 years - and that is a big plus. Pendlebury will become a centreman. He is perfect for the role. Thomas, on the other hand, should fit across the half-forward line - his ability to kick a goal cannot be wasted!

 

[SingaporeSling]

Have to await for another 3 years....then ill tell you. So far so good.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Ah, geez it's hard to say.

Pendlebury was a smoky but was mentioned as a possibility to go at 5 in the Burgatron. He appears to have inside mid potential as evidenced by his 29 possession effort last Friday. However some of that is also pumped up by Collingwood supporters as we all know we need inside mids.

Thomas has impressed me greatly with his courage and decision making. He consistently takes the best option. Malthouse made quite some deal about picking a player who has performed under pressure on the big stage, which I saw as a reaction to criticism of some of our list (eg. Rhyce Shaw) in the 2003 GF. Thomas does have that quality however, as we saw in his 2 goal, huge specky effort on debut, and also his ANZAC Day performance. He has a lot of unknown about him, but I really like what I've seen.

The two lads for the Hawks, I've never seen play. In the leadup to the 2005 draft, I was excited hearing about Ellis and I expected to hear his name called out, but in retrospect I can understand why we passed on him. Not in any way as a slur on Ellis, mind you, but we'd come from 15th on the ladder, and you want to be able to show players who are the club's future, it helps with supporters and membership etc. Hawthorn, if I recall correctly, had already been promoting the "rebuilding" line and had picks resulting from Thompsons trade (and later Hay's) and so could think longer term. I haven't heard anything on Ellis to suggest he's going to be anything less than the very high quality player we expected.

Dowler was touted as a potential #1 pick prior to his injury, yes? I guess on ability alone you have to have a look at him, especially given he had a very positive prognosis (full recovery expected). We'll have to wait and see how he goes with a full pre-season under his belt, but as a bigger kid and not strictly a midfielder, he may take longer to develop? I really feel like I'm talking out of my hat on Dowler, I just don't know, but he might be a player like Danny Stanley for us, we're sweating on some translation of his TAC skills to the big leagues.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

In regards to Pendelbury, i was like who the hell was he, as i remember he was on hardly anyone's mock drafts..

I've said it before, and I'll say it again - Don't confuse your ignorance of draft prospects with us taking a smokey.

Scott Pendlebury was universally regarded as a 1st round pick, and I don't think I saw a mock draft from a knowledgable person that had Pendlebury outside of the Top 30, with most having him around 13-16.

He was on EVERYONE'S mock drafts - You just didn't know anything about him.

Dowler was touted as a potential #1 pick prior to his injury, yes?.

They say this about a lot of players, but with Dowler, it's not true - His stock actually almost ROSE after his injury, in some ways - Obviously, largely because there wasn't a lot of space between draft camp and his accident, but the fact remains, most of the season he was considered a 3-8 pick, and that's where he went.

 

[Lonie_from_50]

Thomas has taken everybody by suprise...including Pies supporters, showing he is a genuine top 10 pick I guess. Pendlebury is a quality midfielder.

Ellis and Dowler have great potential, but can't rate them yet. Probably 12 months too early.

 

[Greedy Ralph]

I liked Pendlebury game last week and Thomas has impressed me greatly at times, however I am still unsure about Thomas. Will he be irreplaceble in the team or just another unaccountable HFF who will show touchers of brillance at times?
Ellis and Dowler are just a few years behind due to injury.
Why don't we compare them to Pick 1 and 4 of that year.
Because Pies took Thomas Hawks swoped on Ellis wihich left Carlton rubbing their hands together and able to grab a Key position player at 4. Watch his 2007

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Well, Collingwood were NEVER going to take a key position player, and Jason Dunstall has said that Hawthorn were going to take Dale Thomas at #3 if we took Ellis, because they didn't want to miss out on both Thomas and Ellis.

Hence, we were in the position of having to choose between either Thomas or Ellis, and we made our choice - It remains to be seen whether we were right or not, but I think we're closer to being justified in our selection now than many people might have thought 12 months ago.

 

[magpies42]

Many people sook at draft comparison threads, but chins up, you don't have to be sad at this one really.
In the draft 2 years ago, you guys had picks 2 and 5, and Hawthorn had 3 and 6. Collingwood went with a couple of unexpected choices, while Hawthorn's were for players that the pundits were generally keen on (though Dowler has his injury cloud).
At the end of their second pre-season, your choices are looking pretty alright. 16 very promising games out of Thomas, and Pendlebury making it into a reasonably successful team for 9 games in his first season - you'd say that both would have exceeded expectations, and are showing signs that they could be 10 year players for the club.
On the other hand, Hawthorn's 2 picks have played 2 games between them, for a total of 6 disposals. Neither of them were selected in our first round NAB cup match, or dominated any of the VFL matches they were involved in last season. Ellis has had an injury interrupted summer, and is still quite underweight, while dowler hasn't put on much bulk, and isn't able to assert himself on the ground in our pre-season practice matches.

So what do you think of Hawthorn's choices compared to Collingwood's? I'm sure almost all of you would be pretty pleased to date, but is there hope for Ellis and Dowler to match / overtake your two at any point?

to hard to tell because both ur boys were injured (as was pendelbury i guess). to early to tell anyway

 

[Lockyer24]

Will he be irreplaceble in the team or just another unaccountable HFF who will show touchers of brillance at times?

No. Other clubs supporters are having trouble picking it up but Dale's defensive work and tenacity is one of the reasons we are very happy with him. He breaks the goal sneak mould in that respect.

Pendlebury looked fantastic Friday night and looks to have improved by far the most of the two.

Ellis hasn't played a game yet, can't say whether we made a mistake yet or not. Im quietly confident he won't be any better than Dale.

Dowler and Kennedy we didn't need and I'm not that keen on them anyway, think Travis Cloke will be of similar ability.

 

[FIGJAM]

I have no doubt about Thomas' ability to step up when required. It's too easy to be swayed by ordinary performances like last week but the last real game we played he was one of our few shining lights and was in our best with about 50% game time.

Pendlebury could be phenominal. But then he might be a teaser, with up and down games. His qualities are clear, as are his weaknesses. He needs to find consistency and iron out deficiencies. You can't teach his athletic attributes though and he has a great base upon which to work from.

Ellis is the most skilled player of this bunch. Has extremely good kicking skills and pace. Concerns would be his receiver type nature, but in a team with Hawthorn's grunt midfield, who are still quite young, he will be fed enough of it to make his skills hurt.

Dowler is a straight up and down full forward with a good mark and boot. At least at the time, he wasn't what we needed and wouldn't have even been on our radar for the first two picks. Will probably end up being what we thought Tom Davidson could/should have been.

Personally, I don't worry about this comparison. I like the bloke's we've got and appreciate our rationalle, but if I'm worried about oppo selections completely destroying them in terms of ability, it'd be guys like Hurn, Clarke and Muston.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

To say Thomas has no defensive side to his game is laughable. From his first competitive AFL game in the NAB Cup last year, we've always cheered Dale on in chasing down opponents from some distance, usually with the cry "Watch out for the equal 5th fastest man in draft camp!". Most of the time he lays an effective tackle, too.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Massive congrats to all posters above. It's a pity this kind of conversation can't happen with the most other clubs/boards.

My "respect for collingwood-o-meter" (tm) has risen.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Better get a patent out on that meter, quick smart!

 

[PatientHawk]

Pendlebury may be tall, kinda skinny and have fantastic evading skills but his strength is his inside work. He doesn't bust heads but he gets the ball, evades opposition players and lays off a perfect handball or gets a clearance. In fact IMO his weakness is his outside game. He is built like an outside mid/utility but he is a Dal Santo type.

Thomas will at least be a wingman, but I still think he can go in the middle. He would be an outside midfielder but he has the uncanny abilty of picking up the ball and getting a handball off all in one motion. I think even at this stage of his career he is a wingman before being a small forward.

I haven't seen much of Dowler and Ellis but Ellis was as much of a risk as Thomas IMO. Ellis was risky because there was a risk he'd end up being a vanilla outside midfielder at worst. Thomas was a risk because he could of ended up being an inconsistant and flashy forward at worst. I honestly believe the fact that Ellis wasn't prepared to play footy year 1 might of turned us off him and it is not unreasonable to assume that it would hinder his development. Either way both Dowler and Ellis need time just because of their types (skinny outsidish mid and injury interrupted key forward).

I agree with you on Ellis.
I was dissapointed his priority first year was his schooling.
I know you need something outside of football, incase of injury or when you finally retire, but you have to love a younge player that wants to be a star, and his first priority is football.

I am glad someone has finally said what you have..Thanks Jabso

 

[liz]

He breaks the goal sneak mould in that respect.

In what respect? There is barely a self-respecting "goal sneak" cum small half-forward whose defensive work is not a key part of their game. Watch Aaron Davey (and early signs are good for Alwyn too), Jeff Farmer, Adam Schneider, even Eddie Betts. They all work very hard and their forward defensive pressure is a key part of their game. The only one I can think of that you might question this part of his game is Stephen Milne.

So yes, Thomas' defensive work - for a skinny first year player - was pretty impressive last season, but it's a necessity for that role, not an "add-on".

 

[FIGJAM]

In what respect? There is barely a self-respecting "goal sneak" cum small half-forward whose defensive work is not a key part of their game. Watch Aaron Davey (and early signs are good for Alwyn too), Jeff Farmer, Adam Schneider, even Eddie Betts. They all work very hard and their forward defensive pressure is a key part of their game. The only one I can think of that you might question this part of his game is Stephen Milne.

Some good points, but the other point is that many of those blokes have limited scope to play a genuine midfield role. That's probably more what the argument is in respect to Thomas.

He looks completely at home in the starting four midfield. Very good hands, finds real estate, finds the pill and makes the right decisions. And to be completely honest, I can't recall a time where Daisy was even started in the forward 50 last year! Mainly wing.

There are plenty of small/half forwards who fill their role, but then there are other "half-forwards" who go on to bigger and better things. The question is, will Thomas be a Jeff Farmer/Stewart Dew forward, or will he become a crossover player like Shannon Grant or Alan Didak. I think evidence shows that he's closer to the Shagger / Daks side of the ledger than a stay at home half forward, although oppo fans with limited exposure claim otherwise (wishful thinking IMO).

 

[daics cousin]

I believe we have done well with Thomas and Pendelbury.Both will be very good players in a few years.I also believe so will Ellis and Dowler.Ellis has bulked up abit,and the hawks are smart enough not top have rushed him him.Very similar to what the saints did with luke ball,and look at luke ball now,he is a terrier.Ellis will develop into a very good player indeed in a few years,and so will Beau dowler,he will compliment buddy perfectly in the hawks forward,line.Another hawk,i reckon will be a gun in years to come is Beau Muston,watch this kid go.At the moment although i love my magpies,i believe the hawks are assembling,a fantastic group, of youngsters and a will be a force in years to come,no worries about that.