Discussion Thoughts at the Bye

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Moral Decay said:
When Ross was announced as the new Boss, Bassat came out saying that he club is ok with falling back down the ladder. Ross has maintained that this year was about figuring out the list.

Our start to the season has given us a look at what we can do with a decent system, problem is we don't have the players to make a system work, and/or the players we do have don't have the desire to compete or the willingness to commit to improving their game.

There's too much we don't know about what happens in match committee and list management meetings. Of the mids the only two that are safe in my opinion would be Crouch and Steele.

I have no idea whether this will be the right way to go, I do know what has happened since Ross was here and it's not pretty so "Alea jacta est" lets roll the dice and see what happens.
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I'm happy to let the cobbler cobble. Freo took half a season to work out what he wanted we took a full season. If he wants to swing the axe and play kids he still has credits in the bank to make some calls.

It's easy get emotional after such a disappointing match but that is our midfield stretched due to injury. Sometimes injury finds you hidden gems.

Collingwood had a horrible injury list in Buckley's last season but he unearthed a huge pile of kids that paid off for Fly.
 
Dig a tiny bit deeper than the win loss.
This has been a much, much better year than last year.
We have some young blokes that are developing quickly.

The losses have hurt. All of them. The close ones sucked. The Adelaide and Hawthorn games were diabolical.

The foot has definitely been off the gas over the past month. Perhaps old habits, it could be poor prep. Maybe no fitness guy driving them. Who knows?

I think we may see the end of cuddly Ross soon though. Surely he wont be happy with the past month.

Surely he is just putting together his list of who is worth keeping.

Or maybe I should just keep on keeping on being this pissed off.
 
Positives
Owens making his mark
Higgins playing consistent and career best football
King looking confident after injury
Nas going up a level
Pou making an instant impact- with plenty of potential
Sinclair AA form again
Wilkie a wall down back
Caiminti and stocker two good pick ups from SOS
Hill enjoying his footy again
Marshall back in form
Wood career best form


Negatives
Battle and Howard looking terrible at the moment
No games from Hayes, coffield, Billings, Jones, dmac. All senior players- not stars, but all could’ve made an impact.
Windhager stuck in the twos
Midfield looking slow
Cordy looking unfit and lost
Membrey out of touch
Heath going backwards
 

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Hubnester said:
Our systems and gameplan are clearly better than previous years, simply by virtue of actually having a gameplan.
That alone will hold us in good stead to improve going forward. What's happening now is Ross is seeing who and what he actually has to work with.

Didn't expect finals at the start of the season, and felt even less confident with the injury list we were carrying. If we sneak in, great, but I think that's all we could hope to do. But this season is going to expose a few players I think. I fully expect a considerable list turnover at the end of the year; some unpopular decisions and some long overdue decisions will be made.
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My only issue with this and the whole "year of exploration" concept is that Ross isn't really practising what he's preaching.

It's the same one paced midfield, we aren't really trying anything different.
 
Mowman said:
Not so sure some in this present group would be influenced
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Exactly. Our leadership group consists of people that have never been in a position to have to reach higher... that's because there's never been expectations on them, and it shows. NONE of them know how to lead (with the exception of Sinc's who has had to fight, spit and claw his way to be what he is now, and Wilkie...the rest should be canned) it has been the easiest job in footy playing for the Saints since the year 2013. Leaders have swagger, Steele might have the right sounding surname, but he ain't the man to follow.
Wood, Sinc's, Wilkie. That is the leadership group right there. Three guys that give a s**t and that the team trusts. Maybe Crouch, he at least busts himself most weeks.
Whoever it was that said that Lyon and Steele don't seem to gel is 100% on the mark I reckon. Lyon has had Fyffe, and Riewoldt.. two dudes with serious swagger. Steele (who I genuinely like AS A PLAYER) must look second rate in comparison.
If you want players to reach higher and meet expectation, you need a core of players who will never roll over and retract their balls into their gut. Membrey, Steele, and Ross can be mentors...but not leaders.
 
hayes said:
This is what’s most concerning:

“System can only take you so far”: “Tough love” needed for Saints to rediscover best form

“You found a really good way of winning games early, teams have worked that out pretty quick...”
sen.lu sen.lu



If that doesn’t point to a repeat of last year I don’t know what does.
Click to expand...
Did you notice that in order to help his "argument" he left out Norths score but included Adelaides. Convenient manipulation of data.

As Mark Twain wrote - 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"
 
gringo2011 said:
Think the difference is that we have a softer back end of the season this year.
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I just had a look at the draw and there’s really no easy wins considering we’re struggling to beat the bottom four teams now. It’s not as tough as last year but with the form we’re in I can’t even guarantee winning the west coast game. I’m fine with it if that’s the way it goes I just wouldn’t be banking on an easier fixture getting us into finals.

Our midfield gets a hard time and rightfully so but there’s no way we have a premiership defence either.
 
pebblesofsand said:
Did you notice that in order to help his "argument" he left out Norths score but included Adelaides. Convenient manipulation of data.

As Mark Twain wrote - 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"
Click to expand...

Since round 6 which includes the North game we’re 14th for defending ball movement. Barring some sort of structure change after the bye we aren’t playing finals with that sort of profile.

I think we’ve got a big enough sample size to show that Howard-Battle-Wilkie with 3 or 4 small defenders isn’t the combination to take us where we want to go. What’s the definition of insanity again?
 
hayes said:
Since round 6 which includes the North game we’re 14th for defending ball movement. Barring some sort of structure change after the bye we aren’t playing finals with that sort of profile.

I think we’ve got a big enough sample size to show that Howard-Battle-Wilkie with 3 or 4 small defenders isn’t the combination to take us where we want to go. What’s the definition of insanity again?
Click to expand...
Considering we've conceded the 2nd least amount of points this year, I dont think your sample size is giving an accurate picture of how our defence has been performing.
 
hayes said:
I just had a look at the draw and there’s really no easy wins considering we’re struggling to beat the bottom four teams now. It’s not as tough as last year but with the form we’re in I can’t even guarantee winning the west coast game. I’m fine with it if that’s the way it goes I just wouldn’t be banking on an easier fixture getting us into finals.

Our midfield gets a hard time and rightfully so but there’s no way we have a premiership defence either.
Click to expand...


We beat North by about 30 points, Collingwood who are flag favourites beat them by 35. We lost to the Hawks who set up for us and we didn't tun up. We've had 2 absolute s**t games. Adelaide who smashed us. Hawks who beat us by 10 points after we'd gone to sleep after thinking we had it won.

We beat GWS who just knocked off last year's premier. Beat Dogs, Freo and Essendon who all sit directly under us inside the 8. Dogs only on percentage. Smacked Carlton who were still travelling quite well at the time.

I'm not sure which bottom 4 sides we are struggling to beat apart from the Hawks. Port, Adelaide and Collingwood beat us and they all look very much top 8 sides. Port and Pies are better sides than us. Adelaide around our level.

I get the disappointment and the frustration but I'm going to try to enjoy the ride rather than stress out about the wheels falling off again. I feel more confident that the current coaching group and footy department have the resources and experience to dig us out of this little form slump.
 
hayes said:
Since round 6 which includes the North game we’re 14th for defending ball movement. Barring some sort of structure change after the bye we aren’t playing finals with that sort of profile.

I think we’ve got a big enough sample size to show that Howard-Battle-Wilkie with 3 or 4 small defenders isn’t the combination to take us where we want to go. What’s the definition of insanity again?
Click to expand...
Our defence looks pretty good when our midfield and others work to defend themselves and then spread. When our mids go missing we start to look a bit flaky down back. The same thing happened last year...at the beginning of last year our defence similarly looked like our strongest line, but then started leaking like a sieve after the bye because our mids stopped working. Our defence is reliant on every line doing its part, when it ceases we look every bit as average as the pundits claim.
Our midfield needs to be rejuvenated, lead, made accountable, and simply better planned. Fix the mids and have them hardwired to be accountable and it will fix the defence.
 
hayes said:
Since round 6 which includes the North game we’re 14th for defending ball movement. Barring some sort of structure change after the bye we aren’t playing finals with that sort of profile.

I think we’ve got a big enough sample size to show that Howard-Battle-Wilkie with 3 or 4 small defenders isn’t the combination to take us where we want to go. What’s the definition of insanity again?
Click to expand...


Which is about the time Steele did the collarbone was it? We aren't stacked with depth on ball so need to cobble it together. We might end up finding that it fast tracks a kid.
 

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tomjoad said:
Our defence looks pretty good when our midfield and others work to defend themselves and then spread. When our mids go missing we start to look a bit flaky down back. The same thing happened last year...at the beginning of last year our defence similarly looked like our strongest line, but then started leaking like a sieve after the bye because our mids stopped working. Our defence is reliant on every line doing its part, when it ceases we look every bit as average as the pundits claim.
Our midfield needs to be rejuvenated, lead, made accountable, and simply better planned. Fix the mids and have them hardwired to be accountable and it will fix the defence.
Click to expand...


Losing Steele and Gresham last year killed all momentum and we never got it back. Looks like the same thing this year. We need to start finding a few to step up or trade/draft them in.
 
At the moment I'm seeing this year as similar to 2007/2008.


2007 we were up and down and ultimately missed finals by a game or so.

The list was in flux:

  • Hamill was always two weeks away but played 0 games.
  • Harvs was in the twilight, G-Train was about to retire, Voss and Thommo were finishing up.
  • Gardy was at the club but couldn't get on the park.
  • Matty Clarke was earning some superannuation.
  • Rix was in his heyday of rocking rucks.
  • Fiora had his best year in Saints colours.
  • Attard played a bunch of games then did his knee, never to be seen again.
  • Goose never quite got back to his best after a terrible injury.
  • A few younger players like Gram, Gilbo, Raph, Leigh Fisher were starting to earn their colours.
  • Chips, Joey, Kosi, BJ, X, Bally were all taking a step up.
  • The experienced core was basically Lenny, Bakes, Rooey, Milney, Dal.

Certainly the boys weren't played RTB football yet, if Ross even knew what that was.


Then for most of 2008 we were middle of the pack but thanks to a couple of good wins in the last two rounds we finished 4th, then made a prelim after beating Collingwood who finished 8th.

My memory of it is that we were never a serious threat that year. I was away in Europe for the semi win over Collingwood and the prelim loss to Hawthorn because I'd booked a holiday knowing that we weren't going to do much. Yeah we finished 4th but that wasn't really representative - and also there were only 3 good sides that year (Cats, Dogs, Hawks).

The list was starting to shape up a bit but still very much in flux:

  • Chips and Rooey were AA, Lenny and Max were in the squad.
  • Gram, Joey, BJ, Blake, Kosi were good.
  • Dal and Milney were dropped in very public fashion (Milney still kicked 60).
  • King, Schneids, Dempster came in and played decent roles.
  • Fiora was done, Leigh Fisher had a career-ending injury, Jarryd Allen similar, X almost similar.
  • G-Train unretired then retired again.
  • Harvs finished up.
  • Guys like Birss, Matty Ferguson, Charlie Gardiner got tried and found wanting.
  • Gardy started to get on the park a bit.
  • We saw a bit of Gears, Armo, Rob Eddy, Gwilty, Mini, Raph.
  • CJ and Gilbo basically established themselves.

Realistically it never looked as though we were particularly good. There was no particular reason 2009 would be any better than 2008 - thereabouts but not really good enough to seriously challenge. RTB didn't look like a particularly good or particularly bad coach, and the list looked like it had some stars but probably not enough depth to be serious.


And then we all know what happened in 2009. I distinctly remember pre-season being disappointing and not having any particular hopes for the season. I think it was surprising to everyone that we won 19 in a row.


Clearly we wouldn't expect that any time soon or ever again. But it wouldn't be surprising if it took RTB a bit of time to find the right guys to do the job, and shape the list the way we need.


2007 to 2009 list changes:

OUT: Harvey, Hamill, Thompson, Gehrig, Voss, Fiora, Attard, M Clarke, Rix, Birss, Ferguson, Brooks, Watts, Raymond, Sweeney, Smith, Cahill, Van Rheenen, Wall

IN: King, Schneider, Dawson, Ray, Dempster, McEvoy, Gwilt, Steven, Stanley, Begley, Heyne, Lynch, Miles, Haretuku, Simpkin, McGrath, Gaertner, Tungatalum, McGarry


Some pretty outs and some solid ins, though mostly he made the most of the core he had - eventually. Hopefully he can do the same here now.
 
Three points on bergholt 's post:

  • Two good teams in 2008. We didn't play the Doggies after Round 11, when we were much better and they were not as good.
  • The dropping of Milne and Dal Santo was the turning point - Lyon decided if he was going to go down, he would go down his way and the team turned it around from that point
  • The Doggies game in the 2009 pre-season has been documented as the point the coaching staff knew they had something special system wise, and that the playing group understood the system well enough to implement it effectively.

Ross barely had a poor second half of a year at St Kilda. In 2007, 2008 & 2011 the second half of the season was superior to the first half. The second halves of 2009 and 2010 were pretty good too.


YearFirst half recordSecond half record
20074-77-3-1
20085-68-3
200911-09-2
20108-37-3-1
20114-6-18-3
 
gringo2011 said:
Losing Steele and Gresham last year killed all momentum and we never got it back. Looks like the same thing this year. We need to start finding a few to step up or trade/draft them in.
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I don't think Steele or Gresh will ever be the players of a couple of years back- injuries have slowed both down a little, and reduced their impact. I think Gresh's body language looks like his mind is elsewhere, especially against the Hawks.
 
hayes said:
This is what’s most concerning:

“System can only take you so far”: “Tough love” needed for Saints to rediscover best form

“You found a really good way of winning games early, teams have worked that out pretty quick...”
sen.lu sen.lu



If that doesn’t point to a repeat of last year I
Click to expand...
Disagree with him on one main part of this. We don’t need to find the talent, we have it, we need to develop it. King, Owens, Philipou and NAS are all A Grade, star potential. He’s gone back to the cliqued Saints aren’t talented narrative that isn’t accurate anymore. I’d put those 4 up against anyone’s best kids in terms of upside.
 
BucketsandBanger said:
Disagree with him on one main part of this. We don’t need to find the talent, we have it, we need to develop it. King, Owens, Philipou and NAS are all A Grade, star potential. He’s gone back to the cliqued Saints aren’t talented narrative that isn’t accurate anymore. I’d put those 4 up against anyone’s best kids in terms of upside.
Click to expand...

A lot of King's analysis is worthwhile. He just changes his mind so. Damn. Often.
 
Saintbloke said:
I think Gresh's body language looks like his mind is elsewhere, especially against the Hawks.
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Thinking of seagulls perhaps? 🤔

F66KKjl.jpg
 
My take, without reading too much of the other comments on this thread:

Positives:
  • The Lyon & Co game plan standing up early, and being attractive fast footy, not dour like it had been
  • Superior fitness early
  • Caminiti and Stocker great pick ups, both slotting straight in
  • Sinclair and Wilkie continuing on from their AA form of last year
  • Mitch Owens rising exponentially, both in his form and his marking
  • Byrnes taking his game to another level - not brilliant but played every game so far, and been decent in many
  • Throwing Phillipou in early and him surviving, at times thriving
  • Gresham being a wild card
  • Membrey and Billings made to earn their spots rather than being auto-inclusions
  • Ultimate clubman Mason Wood mentoring NWM
  • NWM re-signing after speculation of losing him to SA
  • Winning games without Steele and King
  • Definite game plan early on
  • Beat the Bulldogs, a team who humiliated us last year
  • Beat Carlton, Essendon and North who are all still deliciously s**t (double positive)
  • Ross's press conferences - absence of "G'day Saints fans" soft serves
  • The handling of the 150th game promo and merch

Negatives:
  • The chaotic and flawed nature of our forward entries
  • The heavy amount of injuries early, inability for players like Coffield, Jones and Dmac to get back without regression
  • The form of Steele, injury or otherwise
  • The glacial speed of our midfield
  • Marshall's ruckwork, regardless of his overall value
  • Still heavily reliant on Marshall's fitness - if he goes down, who replaces him?
  • Max King not twirling the ball around as much before set shots
  • Still reliant at times on individual brilliance (Wood, Owens, Higgins, Wilkie in the early games) - though all teams are to a certain extent
  • Early superior fitness giving us a false advantage that was hard to sustain later (still believe it will work in our favour come August)
  • Soft draw masking true form early
  • Fringe players not getting enough senior experience - Bytel, Sharman and Windhager used mostly as subs if at all)
  • Sandringham's Saints-listed players not having rotation through the senior side (Heath, Adams, Van Es, Keeler - didn't expect anything else, but we really need to expose them at some stage)
  • The effort dropping off considerably in the last month, probably due to tiredness and being targeted by the opposition (game plan found out)
  • The frustrating amount of individual brain farts from most of the players
  • The lack of on-field leadership - a problem we have had for years
  • Lack of ability to score heavily
  • Lack of ability to put the foot on the throat when we have the ascendency
  • Wasting the game vs Hawks to boost ladder position - could have been won well with correct application
  • The gloom of Rattsball and Richoball returning - will we ever be free?
  • Saints fans still not jumping back on in droves and largely not turning up in huge numbers either
The burning questions:
  • Is the culture really changing? It sure needs to, and that's why we brought in RTB
  • Will we continue on with Jack Steele as the skipper?
  • Can we win a flag with Marshall as our number one ruckman?
  • Will SOS pollute our list with substandard Carlton players?
  • How deep will we cut the list? Jones, Coffield, Highmore, Bytel, Billings, Membrey, Gresham, Allison, DMac, Connolly, Peris, all vulnerable to trades or delisting
  • Can Windhager get back into the seniors team where he belongs?
  • Can Owens sustain his excellent form or will he regress like all St Kilda's previous early burners?
  • Are our assistant coaches getting the job done?
  • How can Sandringham contribute in a meaningful way?
  • Are we forever destined to be as s**t as we have been for most of our history or are we actually capable of evolving, like other clubs have?

Most Saints fans would have taken this situation in pre-season, but after the sugar rush of the first 5 rounds, it's a bitter pill to swallow now. Overall, my confidence in Ross Lyon compared to Ratts allows me to feel optimistic about the second half of the season. Our youngsters need finals exposure and they should get it, the players that have held us back for years will be under RTB's microscope and we might even freshen up our systemically-faulty leadership model.

Prediction:
Finish the H&A in 6th place, win 1 or 2 finals before bowing out, come back a vastly different unit next year
 
Saintbloke said:
I don't think Steele or Gresh will ever be the players of a couple of years back- injuries have slowed both down a little, and reduced their impact. I think Gresh's body language looks like his mind is elsewhere, especially against the Hawks.
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That doesn't make much sense. I think both will be back to their best but we ned to have some ready to go depth if we are planning on paying finals next year. Otherwise we are vulnerable to injury to the midfield.
 
Look the month of May was not as good as March/April.
But still 3 months to go.

Need to take inspiration from the Miami heat.
Doesn’t matter if you finish 8th as long as you make it, and just need to find form at the right time of year.

Mitchito Owens = Jimmy Butler.
 
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