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TOA's Phantom Draft

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theorangeapple

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 18, 2003
5,592
4
AFL Club
West Coast

Can I stress that I have not seen much of these guys play first hand. These are based more on what I have heard and what I think clubs will draft based on draft history and general trends.

PRIORITY SELECTIONS:

1 – MURPHY, Marc [CARL] Natural midfielder with leadership qualities, clean hands. Football quick. Ready round 1. No brainer selection. Best available.

2 – ELLIS, Xavier [COLL] 6”1’ Bottom-age, skinny, quick outside midfielder. Needs time to develop. Pies add Ellis’s pace and creativity to their midfield. Midfield needs more work than key position stocks. Ryder in contention if they chose to go tall. Might be a smarter ploy to go with Kennedy at 2 and then get one of Ellis/ Hurn at 5. Wouldnt suprise if they went down this path.

3 – RYDER, Patrick [HAW] 196cm Bottom-age jumping jack. Rated the best of the East Fremantle prospects. Ability to play ruck and KP suits the Hawks needs. Hawks likely to go tall at 3, Kennedy also in contention.

ROUND 1:

4 – HURN, Shannon [CARL] 6”1’ Powerhouse midfielder who is a leader of men, aggressive, penetrating kick. Smaller scope for improvement than others although he has not had a preseason in years and suffered OP over the past 2yrs. Carlton selecting the best available. If decide to go tall, may consider Dowler.

5 – KENNEDY, Josh [COLL] 195cm CHF with intensity, contested ability, willing worker. May lack the raw class and athleticism of others like Dowler and Clark. Pies going with the best tall because handy midfielders should be available at 21 and 23, unlike quality talls. If Hurn slides this far, he might be too good to pass on. May also consider midfielders in Pfeiffer and Swallow.

6 – THOMAS, Dale [HAW] 6” Explosive, exciting, goal kicking, midfielder/ HFF. Hawks should go for a midfielder with this pick (presuming they went tall at 3). Swallow, Higgins and Pfeiffer in contention. There is strong word that the Hawks and Pies are considering Thomas for 5 and 6 respectively. Both are after pacy midfielders, which are in short supply.

7 – PFEIFFER, Darren [ESS] 6”1’ Courageous midfielder who attacks the ball and man, strong in the air. Broad range of attributes and athleticism. Bombers selecting the best available. Hard to predict whether they will go tall or small. Already having snapped up Neagle might sway them towards a midfielder. Could go with the raw pace of someone like Thomas or Varcoe however they are more HFF than pure midfielders. Dowler might be too good to pass up.

8 – DOWLER, Beau [RICH] 195cm Pack marking tall-forward. Fine kick on goal, good athleticism for size. Needs to improve work when ball hits ground. Tigers signalled their intentions with their chasing of Fevola. They are likely to go tall, Dowler is the best option. Mitch Clark and Cleve Hughes are also in contention.

9 – CLARK, Mitchell [BRIS] Athletic 198cm strong- marking tall with ruck potential. Rated likely #1 earlier in season. Very raw but needs to improve intensity. Lions selecting the best available tall. Nathan Jones’ tenacious nature might endear him for #9 if they want a midfielder.

10 – SWALLOW, Andrew [FRE] Quick, hard working midfielder, ball magnet. Kicking must improve. Freo should go for a pacey midfield type unless one of the WA tall trio fall through. Dale Thomas and Oakley-Nicholls should also be considered.

11 – DRUM, Marcus [WBS] 6”2’ Creative defender with neat disposal, ability to read play, provide run from defence. Awkward height. Dogs going for best available. May also consider Muston and Oakley- Nicholls. If decide to go tall, Hughes is the obvious pick.

12 – JONES, Nathan [MELB] 179cm Bottom-age powerhouse midfielder with elite aerobic capacity, strong in clearances, aggressive, physical. Kicking penetration and acceleration need to improve. A good fit for the demons needs.

13 – OAKELY-NICCOLLS, Jarred [WCE] Bottom-age 6”1’, quick and agile, x-factor. WC apparantly very interested. Also considering McKinley, while hoping Pfeiffer slides.

14 – HIGGINS, Shaun [HAW] 6” Bottom-age, hard worker, good disposal, footy smart midfielder. Not overly athletic but natural footballer. Midfielders are the best option here IMO. Muston, Douglas, Oakley-Niccolls are also in contention. Hawks rumoured to be interested and may consider at 6.

15 – HUGHES, Cleve [GEE] Top-age hard working tall who presents well, has good skills. Must improve contested ability. Cats happy to get a tall forward. Crows will be happy for him to slide one more pick

16 – VARCOE, Travis [ADE] Bottom-age indigenous live-wire with explosive pace. Adelaide going for home grown talent, he would be a good get for #17.

17 – PENDLEBURY, Scott [ADE] 6”1’ Bottom-age, smooth mover, new to footy, big upside. Suits Crows gamestyle.

18 – BOWER, Paul [HAW] Bottom-age running back who provides run from defence. Hawks are rumoured to be interested along with the Blues who may take him at 20.

19 – DEMPSEY, Courtney [ESS] 6” flanker with tons of flair, skill and is strong in the air. Needs to improve consistency over whole game. Sounds like a player which will interest Sheedy.

ROUND 2:

20 – MUSTON, Beau [CARL] 6”2’ Quick, goal kicking midfielder. Knee injury will restrict next season.

21 – DOUGLAS, Richard [COLL] 180cm skinny smart onballer with clean hands.

22 – WEST, Trent [HAW] 197cm ruck, strong athletically, moves well, height may restrict ruck potential.

23 – BIRCHALL, Grant [COLL] 192cm Bottom-age flanker who provides run, very outside.

24 – STANLEY, Danny [RICH] 6”1’ Bottom-age, strongly built, HBF, surprisingly good DC.

25 – MILLS, Wayde [BRIS] 195cm athlete first, footballer second. Has a lot of upside but needs to improve kicking and ability to read the play.

26 – LUCY Austin [FRE] 192cm Full back who provides run from defence, needs to improve decision marking. Strong DC.

27 – McKINLEY, Ben [WBD] 6”1 Medium forward who is smart, creative, nice kick. Awkward height but that shouldn’t hold him back.

28 – DZUFER, Daniel [KANG] Very outside bottom-age midfielder with good skills but must improve defensively.

29 – MARKOVIC, Lucas [WCE] Top-age CHF/CHB, strong in the contest, nice kick. Injury troubles this year.

30 – OBST, Alan [PORT] 192cm Top-age key defender, contests well, nice spoil. Might slide further.

31 – McENTREE, Luke [GEE] 197cm ruck, outstanding DC and tap work. Stocks are rising, especially considering the lack of ruck depth.

32 – RISCHIBIETH, Tom [ADE] 187cm Top-age super athletic leader. Awkward height but Neil Craig will like his endurance.

33 – LAIDLAW, Matthew [STK] 6”1 Top-age all rounder who is athletic, without much deficiencies.

34 – RIGGIO, Matt [WCE] Bottom-age 6”1’ aggressive flanker with nice kick. Didn’t play in Championships, commitment query.


To hard to predict from here on. The likes of Toovey and Casserly will go soon.

 
Looks pretty good.

Nathan Jones? Yes please.

BTW is Dale Thomas really good enough to go Top 10 or are people overrating him due to a big game in the Grand Final?
 
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Sylvia Saint said:
BTW is Dale Thomas really good enough to go Top 10 or are people overrating him due to a big game in the Grand Final?


Well it seems Footyman has just got the same info as I did re Thomas. I have heard he is almost certain to go to the Pies or Hawks at 5/6.

So for the record, I didnt just follow footydraft :mad:
 
Can't imagine that anyone would let Pendlebury fall that far, especially behind Birchall, Muston, Dempsey and Stanley (although I understand he's there as a local, it's probably a bit high for him). He's similar enough to those guys, and from all reports, rated higher. Definitely has a higher upside.

I'm also starting to doubt that Collingwood will take a tall with one of their first two picks. They seem really keen on getting two mids.
 

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Sylvia Saint said:
Looks pretty good.

Nathan Jones? Yes please.

BTW is Dale Thomas really good enough to go Top 10 or are people overrating him due to a big game in the Grand Final?
As I said in the other thread, I think Nathan Jones and Melbourne are perfect for each other.

As for Thomas - The only real weakness he has is stamina, and perhaps his body right now. He definitely has the ability to make it as an A-Grade midfielder.
 
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vinnie_vegas69 said:
I'm also starting to doubt that Collingwood will take a tall with one of their first two picks. They seem really keen on getting two mids.


If they did want 2 midfielders then they are going to have to have to look at someone like Thomas or Pfeiffer. I think they would jump on Hurn if available at 5.
 
theorangeapple said:
If they did want 2 midfielders then they are going to have to have to look at someone like Thomas or Pfeiffer. I think they would jump on Hurn if available at 5.
You say that like it would be a massive step down...

I think some people are overestimating the difference between guys like Hurn, Ellis and even Murphy and guys like Pfeiffer, Thomas and Higgins.

Despite the fact that it's been said for months that the draft is even, with no definitive top 5 or 6, yet people have managed to convince themselves that Murphy, Ellis, Hurn, Kennedy, Ryder and Dowler are a head and shoulders above everyone else in the draft.
 
Great work TOA. Not easy doing a Phantom Draft so I respect those who put one up.

Nice to hear confirmation of the Thomas rumour as well.

The one I wonder about in all phantom drafts is Cleve Hughes, I wonder if it is a strong chance to happen or if its just something that has built momentum cos everyone sees them needing a marking forward? Anyone got strong mail that the Dogs are interested?
 
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footyman said:
The one I wonder about in all phantom drafts is Cleve Hughes, I wonder if it is a strong chance to happen or if its just something that has built momentum cos everyone sees them needing a marking forward? Anyone got strong mail that the Dogs are interested?


He is the worry and one which could fall flat on its face. If I was to pick someone to do a Grundy or Kirby, it would be Hughes. Its generally believed that the Doggies will go tall at 11 (although that isnt based on anything, I dont think?) and if Dowler and the 3 WA boys are gone by 11 then Hughes would have to be the next best option (I suppose they could consider Bower but that is unlikely). Hughes to the Doggies seems like a good fit but the draft obviously doesnt work like that. It is conceivable to see him last to 20-30. There doesnt seem to be many rumours floating around concerning him.
 
footyman said:
Great work TOA. Not easy doing a Phantom Draft so I respect those who put one up.

Nice to hear confirmation of the Thomas rumour as well.

The one I wonder about in all phantom drafts is Cleve Hughes, I wonder if it is a strong chance to happen or if its just something that has built momentum cos everyone sees them needing a marking forward? Anyone got strong mail that the Dogs are interested?
Before his injury, Clayton was all over Beau Muston, now, who knows.

Watch the Dogs take Nathan Lyons (late).
 
vinnie_vegas69 said:
Can't imagine that anyone would let Pendlebury fall that far, especially behind Birchall, Muston, Dempsey and Stanley (although I understand he's there as a local, it's probably a bit high for him). He's similar enough to those guys, and from all reports, rated higher. Definitely has a higher upside.


Funny you mention that, I have just got a very interesting email. Pendlebury to Adelaide is the hot tip. I might change it (and cheat :p )
 

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Great work, TOA - love the presentation!

From a Hawks perspective, I would be a bit disappointed by that list, given that I've been hoping to get one of:

Ryder/Kennedy
Ellis/Hurn
Thomas/Oakley Nicholls
Bower/Lucy
Douglas/Higgins/Muston

But hey, what the hell do I know? I'm sure your list will be something like the Hawks pull out on Saturday.
 
Just a point RE: Hughes.

I agree with what you're saying TOA but even if he was to slide dramatically I can't see him falling past 17.

From what I heard the only reason the crows were so desperate to snare a higher pick from St Kilda for Fungus Watts was so that this kid could slot in and replace the position he would fill straight away.

If the doggies go tall then Hughes will more than likely be heading their way (ANOTHER TALENTED SOUTH AUSSIE - BASTARDS :mad: ) But if he makes it to 16 or 17 he won't go any further.

Just my opinion. :thumbsu:
 
Nice work OA. I'm sure, like me, a lot of us are in the "would love to but don't have the time" boat.

If I had one query on Brisbane's selections I think we would pick Lucy over Mills. We've got a few project players as it is. But I agree with you that we'd take Clark if he's available - although the Spaanderman debacle would haave a lot of Lions fans wary...
 
How's this for a massive call based on one game....???

If Dale Thomas goes inside the top 6, this draft is, and will be, worse than ordinary.
 

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mattyc2422 said:
I'm personally happy about the Thomas rumour. Hawthorn desperately needs a creative player.
Ya's might have to take him at #3 then!

The Ellis/Thomas combo for the Pies is gaining momentum.

It's an interesting rumour though if true. Both clubs would be looking past just the "forward pocket with flair" tag he seems to get. They'd be thinking he's a masssive chance for the midfield.
 
Ryan Houlihan anyone?
 
NorthBhoy said:
Ryan Houlihan anyone?
I'd be more concerned he is a Didak type in that he's a natural forward, but can he translate it to the midfield?

Not that Daks is yet a write off for a midfield role by any stretch, but he's no certainty.

There have been some pacey forwards who have been able to move into the midfield. Luke Power is one that springs to mind. Gablett Jnr should be able to do both too.
 
Sylvia Saint said:
BTW is Dale Thomas really good enough to go Top 10 or are people overrating him due to a big game in the Grand Final?

It wouldnt be the first time.....Micheal Stevens was picked way over the odds due to an outstanding grand final performance where he kicked 5 goals from the midfield.

Although Adam Goodes starred also on grand final day yet was picked up late so you never know.
 
I'd be more concerned he is a Didak type in that he's a natural forward, but can he translate it to the midfield?

Looks to have a good opposite side. Doesn't seem to be much of a coward either. He has Daks covered so far ;).

Not that Daks is yet a write off for a midfield role by any stretch, but he's no certainty.

Should he have done this by now?

There have been some pacey forwards who have been able to move into the midfield. Luke Power is one that springs to mind. Gablett Jnr should be able to do both too

Fair call. As I said I have seen him once. It is a strange thing really. You see a bloke that good around the sticks and you start doubting him. FP's curse I 'spose.
 

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