Toast Top 4 finish now likely

[76woodenspooners]

With 4 rounds left to play, we're 2 games clear of fifth placed West Coast (with similar percentage) and 2 games + 10% clear of sixth placed Geelong.

Our last four games are v Sydney (ANZ), North (Etihad), West Coast (Patersons) and Essendon (MCG).

West Coast's last four games are v Geelong (Patersons), Port (AAMI), Collingwood (Patersons) and Hawthorn (MCG).

Geelong's last four games are v West Coast (Patersons), St Kilda (Etihad), Bulldogs (Simmonds) and Swans (Simmonds).

So for us to lose out on a top four finish, either West Coast or Geelong would need to win two more games than us and end up on superior percentage. Unlikely now don't you think?

So it would seem that all that remains to be decided over the next four rounds is whether we play our first game in Sydney, Adelaide or the MCG; and who our opponent will be (Sydney, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Geelong or West Coast)

With that in mind, it would seem that we can be in full finals preparation mode now.

Apart from the senior players racing to return from injury, our finals squad is probably now decided. So, barring injury and players returning from injury, the finals squad will be the only players getting a game over the next four weeks.

Make no mistake, winning form is good form. And we should strive to win all our remaining games. But we can now focus on getting our game plan right and trying to fix up our myriad of problems. We can manage player loads so that everyone is cherry ripe for finals week 1.

We can also be a bit experimental in the Sydney game. They're a benchmark team and a possible finals opponent, so we can experiment with tactics and player positions, etc. The players and coaches can treat it as a dress rehearsal for the finals and get some good feedback about our areas of deficiency (keeping in mind that Sydney will be doing same)

 

[sloth6]

We'd want to bloody lift and lift quickly. We won't win the flag serving out the rubbish we are at the moment

 

[Premier Pies]

With 4 rounds left to play, we're 2 games clear of fifth placed West Coast (with similar percentage) and 2 games + 10% clear of sixth placed Geelong.

Our last four games are v Sydney (ANZ), North (Etihad), West Coast (Patersons) and Essendon (MCG).

West Coast's last four games are v Geelong (Patersons), Port (AAMI), Collingwood (Patersons) and Hawthorn (MCG).

Geelong's last four games are v West Coast (Patersons), St Kilda (Etihad), Bulldogs (Simmonds) and Swans (Simmonds).

So for us to lose out on a top four finish, either West Coast or Geelong would need to win two more games than us and end up on superior percentage. Unlikely now don't you think?

So it would seem that all that remains to be decided over the next four rounds is whether we play our first game in Sydney, Adelaide or the MCG; and who our opponent will be (Sydney, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Geelong or West Coast)

With that in mind, it would seem that we can be in full finals preparation mode now.

Apart from the senior players racing to return from injury, our finals squad is probably now decided. So, barring injury and players returning from injury, the finals squad will be the only players getting a game over the next four weeks.

Make no mistake, winning form is good form. And we should strive to win all our remaining games. But we can now focus on getting our game plan right and trying to fix up our myriad of problems. We can manage player loads so that everyone is cherry ripe for finals week 1.

We can also be a bit experimental in the Sydney game. They're a benchmark team and a possible finals opponent, so we can experiment with tactics and player positions, etc. The players and coaches can treat it as a dress rehearsal for the finals and get some good feedback about our areas of deficiency (keeping in mind that Sydney will be doing same)

i always try to be optimistic but on current form we are making up the numbers in the top four. We certainly have the squad capable of greatness this year but we're just that far off our best form it's not funny.

Plus I don't think that top four is a lock at all. It's not inconceivable that we could drop three out of our last four on current form. Eagles, Swans and Roos are far from easy games and the Bombers could be in a position where they have to defeat us in the last round to secure a finals birth. That is not a prospect that I'm looking forward to

 

[Big Bryza]

Now that a top 4 spot looks more than likely, it's time to step it up a gear. Nothing but our best footy will beat Sydney next week. I know we've beaten them the past 10 times but they are playing the best brand of footy at the moment. I actually think next week will bring the best out in the boys.

Young and one of Sinclair/Elliot must make way over the next few weeks. Didak must come in next week. Hopefully Tarrant as well. Loving the look of Seedsman. He's got a young Pendles written all over him and just looks like he belongs out there. I don't think we can have both Sinclair and Elliot in the same team come finals time. Fingers crossed Krakouer can come in to the side v West Coast. Would love to see Maccafer get a crack at it as well, as I believe he offers something we lack up forward. His style of footy is perfect come finals time. Fingers crossed for Benny Johnson as well. He offers another cool head down back and through the midfield.

I'm quietly confident the pies can gain some momentum over the coming month to then be hitting our straps come September. There is no doubt we have more upside then any other contender. There is no other side I'd rather support than the mighty pies, especially at this time of the year.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

We have no real advantage when it comes to percentage- if West Coast or Geelong make up two wins on us, then they'll probably overtake us on percentage too, particularly the Eagles.

For argument's sake, if West Coast beat both Geelong and us in Perth, then we'd have to beat both Sydney and North (neither a sure thing) to be certain to be ahead of them (by one win) before R23.

Of course Hawthorn will be heavy favourites to beat them in R23, but there's always a chance that a contending team will rest players if they have little riding on the outcome. We're not top-4 certainties yet.

 

[rose jam]

I'd be more than confident playing Adelaide at AAMI (they have a very inflated ladder position with the easiest draw of anyone - and we have the hardest), and feel pretty good about playing Sydney at ANZ Stadium. Hawks would be tougher proposition but I think we'll finish out 3rd and 4th with the Hawks. We look at this point most likely to hit Sydney in week 1.
A win this week would guarantee top 4.
Being playing crap for 60% of the year, with the worst injury run, and with the hardest draw in the league and still look like challenging. Go you freaking Pies!

 

[35Daicos]

We certainly haven't been in good form, but Hawthorn have just had a very shattering loss, West Coast have been struggling badly in recent times and Adelaide are still not at all convincing - at home and against an undermanned opponent they've fallen over the line. I'm totally confident we'll stay in the top 4, and just wish the Crows had been beaten today. Only Sydney of the top 4 teams would be really happy with themselves after this round.

Sydney will be very tough to beat next week, and deserve to start favourite. I still don't mind the thought of playing a side we've beaten 10 times in a row, come finals time. Our record against Adelaide is also extremely good. All up, with some good results going our way and successful comebacks by some quality players in the VFL team, it was a very good weekend for us.

 

[Mame]

Now that a top 4 spot looks more than likely, it's time to step it up a gear. Nothing but our best footy will beat Sydney next week. I know we've beaten them the past 10 times but they are playing the best brand of footy at the moment. I actually think next week will bring the best out in the boys.

Young and one of Sinclair/Elliot must make way over the next few weeks. Didak must come in next week. Hopefully Tarrant as well. Loving the look of Seedsman. He's got a young Pendles written all over him and just looks like he belongs out there. I don't think we can have both Sinclair and Elliot in the same team come finals time. Fingers crossed Krakouer can come in to the side v West Coast. Would love to see Maccafer get a crack at it as well, as I believe he offers something we lack up forward. His style of footy is perfect come finals time. Fingers crossed for Benny Johnson as well. He offers another cool head down back and through the midfield.

I'm quietly confident the pies can gain some momentum over the coming month to then be hitting our straps come September. There is no doubt we have more upside then any other contender. There is no other side I'd rather support than the mighty pies, especially at this time of the year.

I don't agree about Seedsman at all. I don't want to see him in finals. I like Elliott the best and hope he's the only fist year player we have to carry into finals, if any. Sinkers was good before having some time off so I'd have him ahead of Seedsman.

 

[Big Bryza]

I don't agree about Seedsman at all. I don't want to see him in finals. I like Elliott the best and hope he's the only fist year player we have to carry into finals, if any. Sinkers was good before having some time off so I'd have him ahead of Seedsman.

I can see where your coming from with Seedsman. Before last night I was of a similar opinion but I just think he showed a bit last night. I love watching Sinclair and Elliot and rate them both highly. Krakouer is definitely an upgrade though and the way I see the side shaping up bar more injuries, one of them has to make way. It's an if though, Krak is no certainty yet. I really hope Dids comes in next week. His precision kicking is a missing ingredient at the moment.

 

[SuperSub17]

There is a thread on the main board saying that round 23 will be finalised in the next couple of days

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

We were always going to finish top 4. That was never the issue.

It's the way we've been playing that's the issue. We need to fix it, quick.

 

[PieNSauce]

I can see where your coming from with Seedsman. Before last night I was of a similar opinion but I just think he showed a bit last night. I love watching Sinclair and Elliot and rate them both highly. Krakouer is definitely an upgrade though and the way I see the side shaping up bar more injuries, one of them has to make way. It's an if though, Krak is no certainty yet. I really hope Dids comes in next week. His precision kicking is a missing ingredient at the moment.

There is no way I would take in Seedsman ahead of either Elliott or Sinclair. He does have plenty of promise but he's a step or so behind the other two. His year is next year I would think as of the three, his decisioin making is the least impressive. I suspect Dids will be brought back ASAP but the decision on any of Krak, Caff and Johnno will be far more difficult. Do you bring them back sooner to get games into them before the finals at the top level or do you hope that playing in the VFL will be good enough prep. I suspect the latter but it wouldn't surprise me to see at least one of them for the last couple of H&A's.

 

[Pera]

Making top four will mean SFA if our performance and work rate don't pick up. I feel we have drifted back to the pack this year while some sides like Sydney and Adelaide have closed the gap. It's very even, but I'm happy to keep going under the radar, ala Brisbane 02 and 04 and put the afterburners on in the finals.

 

[PieNSauce]

Making top four will mean SFA if our performance and work rate don't pick up. I feel we have drifted back to the pack this year while some sides like Sydney and Adelaide have closed the gap. It's very even, but I'm happy to keep going under the radar, ala Brisbane 02 and 04 and put the afterburners on in the finals.

I totally agree with what you're saying but I suspect that our performance this year has been largely about personnel. The changes between last year and this year have been fairly massive when you consider the coaching panel, players leaving and injuries and whilst most of us wouldn't like it, expectations really should be tempered with that knowledge. By the same token, the guys have performed extraordinarily well in those circumstances and the potential to get a few guys back late is an added bonus even if they don't quite get there. I'm not holding out great hopes for a premiership this year but if all the pieces (and that's a huge if) fall into place it is certainly a possibility. Making the top 4 will be one of those pieces.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

I don't agree about Seedsman at all. I don't want to see him in finals. I like Elliott the best and hope he's the only fist year player we have to carry into finals, if any. Sinkers was good before having some time off so I'd have him ahead of Seedsman.

Agree completely. He can't win a tough ball and is pushed off it way too easily. I am not saying he cant end up being a very good midfielder, but he needs time and a lot more weight on his frame.

As for this thread. Why? Why do we need to even think about it? We have 4 tough games. We could feasibly lose all of them. If we end up in the top 4 we will have well and truly deserved to be there, whether we all believe we are playing well or not. Every team has had its ups and downs this year, we havent really hit a big high yet, but then again we have had an unsettled team for a long time. Now we seem to be getting games into our important players we have a decent shot to finish top 4, it is by no means a sure thing though.

 

[Pera]

Seedsman will be a very good footballer in a couple of years when he has bulked up. Seems like a good kid and his kicking penetration was awesome against St kilda. But against the massive bodies in finals, I'd rather Tom Young (god help us if he plays in September).

 

[Optimax]

We'd want to bloody lift and lift quickly. We won't win the flag serving out the rubbish we are at the moment

I agree, but then I remember how shitful we looked late 2002 and Geelong late 2009 (remember how we all
Wanted to play them in the Qf that year?)

We do need to find some form though

 

[Old Spice]

Krakouer would be a massive inclusion if he is up to it fitness wise by September. Thequestion of Sinclair versus Elliot is a tough one as Sinkers provides excellent defensive run down pressure, which Elliot also provides with strong dukes. I suspect Sinclair though has greater pace to chase someone down.

Didak. Has best foot skills in the club, and incredible evasion / football smarts to let the traffic move past him. Would be a lock if he lifted his defensive pressure as the chain is only as strong as it's weakest link. On that score would brush Buckley and probably Clarke aside. Would love to see him kicking out from defence actually.

For me, the ideal finals side based on probability would be:

Shaw, Reid, Maxwell
Toovey, Tarrant, O'Brien
Sidebottom, Swan, Thomas
Beams, Jolly, Pendlebury
Fasolo, Dawes, Blair
Elliot, Cloke, Krakouer

Didak, Sinclair, Wellingham Sub: Rambo

I'd love Johnson or Cafe but already a risk taking in Krakouer.

EDIT: Doh, forgot about Goldsack injury, replace with Rambo.

Like even less our forward line without Goldsack, Brings Rambo back into view.

 

[Adz]

Who would rather play?
Swans at ANZ or Crows Aami?

 

[35Daicos]

Who would rather play?
Swans at ANZ or Crows Aami?

Adelaide for sure.

 

[SuperSub17]

Who would rather play?
Swans at ANZ or Crows Aami?

Crows for mine. They have yet to prove to me that they are a top 2 side.

 

[Bay Pie]

Crows are a lock for top 2. They have Freo at home then, Lions, Melbourne and Suns. Lion and Melbourne are back to back away games but hey'll be too good. Lock in at least 3 wins.

We need to win at least 3 to lock in top 4. WCE play Cats this week, so the loser is out of top 4 contention. The other can slip in.

The top 6 teams outside the Crows seem to play at least 2 games against each other in the last 4 weeks. It's going down to the wire. A win this week goes along way for us.

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

We'd want to bloody lift and lift quickly. We won't win the flag serving out the rubbish we are at the moment

Yup, ladder is not reflective of the year or current form.

 

[Mame]

Don't know where else to put this but the round 23 fixture is up:

Friday August 31Hawthorn v West Coast, MCG, 7.50pm (channel 7)

Saturday September 1
Geelong v Sydney Swans, Simonds Stadium, 1.45pm (7)
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast, AAMI Stadium, 1.40pm (Fox)
GWS v North Melbourne, Skoda Stadium, 4.40pm (Fox)
Essendon v Collingwood, MCG, 7.40pm (7)
Fremantle v Melbourne, Patersons Stadium, 5.40pm (Fox)

Sunday September 2
Carlton v St Kilda, Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm (Fox)
Richmond v Port Adelaide, MCG, 3.15pm (7)
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs, Gabba, 4.40pm (Fox)

 

[gibba23]

am still trying to understand if caff/krak will be fit enough to play any games this year let alone intense finals matches. anyone else get that feeling?