Top 8 incredibly close

[DJ Black @ White Blood]

There is a really big chance after next weekend with 2 games to go positions 3 to 8 will only be seperated by % all on 48 points. Whats everyones idea on what is the best case and worst case senarios for the pies after round 22.

are we better finishing 3rd 4th 5th 6th ?
are we likly to tavel interstate or stay home
What is our best case senario for our first final
all that sort of stuff

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

3rd or 4th is infinitely better. If you are going to have to travel you may as well do it in a double chance game, and avoid an away PF if you win the QF. As for Adelaide or West Coast, we've proved we can compete against both teams on their turf, so we wont fear them.

 

[jerry springer]

I dont think we can win the flag this year so I think top 4 is the best way to lock in 2 finals games with finals pressure for our youngsters which will hold us in better shape for having a crack next year.

Hope Im wrong though and we can hit a hot streak and win it all

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Gotta finish top 4 to make the Grand Final. Would rather finish 4th than 3rd as I'd rather play Adelaide at AAMI then West Coast at Subi.

 

[DJ Black @ White Blood]

If Melbourne lose next week i think they could finish up in 7th spot.

 

[Coin_Toss]

Best Case Scenario: top four.

Collingwood don't mind travelling interstate in the finals. We put the choke hold on Port Adelaide.

As for Adelaide, we can beat them, but we need more out of Big Anth.
Either that or he can be used as a pinch forward off the interchange.

Finals is when it matters. Just do enough now to earn a spot in the top four.

 

[Jabso]

Win all 4 and top 4 is pretty much guaranteed.
I still think we are capable of anything in the finals. Obviously a 2nd chance in the finals is desirable, but a team can still win from 5th if they are good enough.

When you look at the fixture for the other teams they play each other a few times which helps us a hell of a lot:

Ladder shaping games (games between the top 8):


Melb vs. Syd
Adel vs. Frem
WB vs. Adel
Frem vs. StK
WB vs. StK
WC vs. Frem
Adel vs. Melb
Frem vs. Port

Using the below ladder predictor if we win all our games as expected (I picked only 30 point wins against the likes of Carlton and Kangaroos) and the favorites of the other games win we should be 3rd ahead of Melbourne on percentage. Everyone else is 4 points below.

Check this ladder predictor out:
http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

 

[chapmanmagic35]

Finishing top four is a massive advantage......and with a reasonable draw I would suggest you are a very good chance.

 

[Madd Matt]

Using the below ladder predictor if we win all our games as expected (I picked only 30 point wins against the likes of Carlton and Kangaroos) and the favorites of the other games win we should be 3rd ahead of Melbourne on percentage. Everyone else is 4 points below.

Check this ladder predictor out:
http://afl.allthestats.com/misc/ladderpredict.php

The only catch is that if Syd upset Melbourne this week, we will "drop" to theoretic fourth behind Sydney.

The only thing for sure (and even this isn't 100% sure) is that we will(should) know exactly what is required of us when we walk out onto the MCG to play the Kangas. I'll clarify, at worst, we will know at half time what we need to do in the second half when the Swans game has completed!

 

[magpies42]

I dont think we can win the flag this year so I think top 4 is the best way to lock in 2 finals games with finals pressure for our youngsters which will hold us in better shape for having a crack next year.

Hope Im wrong though and we can hit a hot streak and win it all

mick traditionally has his teams peaking around finals time. so nothing is out of the question

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Melbourne have a terrible run home and they may only win 1 game in the last 4 games.

Sydney @ MCG 50 50
Kangas @ TD WIN
Geelong @ SS PROB LOSS (depending if Geelong win this week)
Adeladie @ AAMI Def LOSS

 

[sproulie]

Run home for the teams still in contention for the finals:

Adelaide (1st, 60pts) - Fremantle (h), Western Bulldogs (a), Port Adelaide (a), Melbourne (h).
West Coast (2nd, 56pts) - Kangaroos (h), Brisbane Lions (a), Fremantle (h), Richmond (a).
Melbourne (3rd, 48pts) - Sydney (h), Kangaroos (a), Geelong (a), Adelaide (a).
Sydney (4th, 44pts) - Melbourne (a), Geelong (a), Brisbane Lions (h), Carlton (h).
St Kilda (5th, 44pts) - Geelong (a), Fremantle (a), Western Bulldogs (a), Brisbane Lions (a).
Collingwood (6th, 44pts) - Essendon (a), Port Adelaide (a), Carlton (h), Kangaroos (h).
Western Bulldogs (7th, 44pts) - Port Adelaide (h), Adelaide (h), St Kilda (h), Essendon (h).
Fremantle (8th, 44pts) - Adelaide (a), St Kilda (h), West Coast (a), Port Adelaide (h).
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Geelong (9th, 36pts) - St Kilda (h), Sydney (h), Melbourne (h), Hawthorn (a).


this is how i see the ladder finishing up:


Adelaide 76
Eagles 72 or 68
Pies 60 (depends on %if we are 3 or 4)
Dees 60
Saints 56 or 52
Doggies 56 or 52 (depends on %)
Swans 52
Freo 52 (swans % much greater than Freo)

Cats 44