Resource Beyond the "66 Game" Rebuild

[Malifice]

15 wins from 66 games.

With a good run with injuries im hoping for around 6 to 8 wins next year. Freo got 8 wins this year and i dont rate them at all.

Perth Stadium gives them a pretty decent if intangible advantage though. The SA and WA clubs get all but assured a few wins at home.

Our home ground 'advantage' isnt an advantage.

Flip side is those sides tend not to travel as well, and cop the opposite when playing away.

 

[Malifice]

Technically everything we do prior to round one next season is part of the rebuild.

That was always the planned start of the climb back up the ladder.

This guy gets it.

The hard work (smashing the drafts, and getting in the bulk of the kids) is done. Trading heavily into the top end of the draft, and trading out players for picks, and increasing depth via GWS.

Now we switch to a more balanced model of list management (use a top end pick this year, plus look to get in quality to fill gaps in the 22-26 age bracket).

Walsh, Shiel, Setterfield, McGovern, Fasolo this year, a quality trade/ FA next year and 2 more preseasons into the kids, and we should see some rapid movement back up the ladder starting in 2020.

 

[Jabba73]

This guy gets it.

The hard work (smashing the drafts, and getting in the bulk of the kids) is done. Trading heavily into the top end of the draft, and trading out players for picks, and increasing depth via GWS.

Now we switch to a more balanced model of list management (use a top end pick this year, plus look to get in quality to fill gaps in the 22-26 age bracket).

Walsh, Shiel, Setterfield, McGovern, Fasolo this year, a quality trade/ FA next year and 2 more preseasons into the kids, and we should see some rapid movement back up the ladder starting in 2020.

I did what now?

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

I did what now?

Have you shared your cake

 

[Jabba73]

Have you shared your cake

Yep, offered to share it at an undisclosed location with a random timeframe.

No one else showed up, assumed you weren’t interested.

It was a nice cake.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Yep, offered to share it at an undisclosed location with a random timeframe.

No one else showed up, assumed you weren’t interested.

It was a nice cake.

You didn't taste anything funny?

 

[Jabba73]

You didn't taste anything funny?

No.

The dog has been sick for a couple of days though

 

[Blue and Blue]

66 games was nothing more than a best guess at how long it would take to strip the deadwood out and plant a new team ...now its about fertilizer and watering....it referred to a list rebuild, never a timeline for success.
Its unfortunately a by-product of blooding so many raw young lads at once and having to keep playing them that they get smashed and injured and so this year has had a negative in terms of the results.

Ironically this has also found some extra green shoots and I am certain added depth from within because some that wouldnt have played much yet have had to. We will get to a best 30 rather than a 22 much sooner once this curse of injusry is banished. In the next two seasons we will start to see the fruit.

 

[Mr.X]

Guessing we need to add another 66 before the finals appear on the radar

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I've undertaken some analysis of our youth players to project to where we can expect them to be performing at the end of next season with an additional twenty-two games under their belt. Below i've input Cripps' and Docherty's player rankings over the last two years (games 23-66 in the rebuild). In the interest of fairness to our man Docherty I have not included his player ratings since his injury which have unfairly cut his average.

I have then inserted a trend line based on their scores to project out how they should finish towards the back end of next season.

You will note below that Cripps has obviously began to reach his peak, it will be difficult to push on beyond this point, he is projected to finish up at around 520 at the end of next season, there is no one really to compare the great man too so he will be performing at roughly his own current level.

Docherty still has a little bit of growth in him based on the projections, slated to push up towards 460, which would make him the highest rated small/medium defender, higher than Jack Crisp, the current highest.

 

[mickelboy182]

A 2 year sample size isn't all that useful for projections...

 

[Jabba73]

A 2 year sample size isn't all that useful for projections...

Gotta work with what you’ve got.

 

[mickelboy182]

Gotta work with what you’ve got.

By making a statistically insignificant regression model? Would have thought it a redundant exercise.

 

[Jabba73]

By making a statistically insignificant regression model? Would have thought it a redundant exercise.

Wouldn’t have picked BF as the place you search out statistically robust arguments.

Plenty of redundant arguments in this place daily.

 

[mickelboy182]

Its basically the graph form of a reactionary game day post

 

[FlowersByIrene]

A 2 year sample size isn't all that useful for projections...

Considering the AFL Player ratings only work off a two year sample size, i'd sa it's about as useful as you can get, feel free not to look at them if they aren't useful enough for you though.

 

[thylacine60]

I did what now?

just take the money and run, son..........

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Please see below the projected AFL Player Ratings for Charlie Curnow and SPS. Based on past performance Charlie and Samo have made consistent linear progression with little holding them back. Based off of this progression both have strong projections moving forward.

By Round 22 of next year Charlie Curnow is expected to reach approximately 500 AFL Player Ratings points, which would have him as the second ranked forward in the AFL behind Buddy Franklin and ahead of Tom McDonald. SPS projects strongly despite a lower base and is expected to reach approximately 450, where Dyson Heppell is currently rated.

 

[Malifice]

Guessing we need to add another 66 before the finals appear on the radar

Yep, sounds about right. Was always the plan.

We just had our Melbourne of 2013 year and it took them till now (5 years) to get back in September action. That said barring a disaster, they're going to feature for a few years yet. They have a young list, only now hitting it's prime.

We have a healthier list than they did in 2013 with more quality kids, and some genuine stars already. We should be back in 2-3 years.

This trade/ draft period is crucial.

 

[Aphrodite]

Excellent work FlowersByIrene

 

[FlowersByIrene]

66 Game Rebuild Overview ​

This thread started three years ago. I've covered this before but it's worth returning to to remember where we came from. We had 26 players under the age of 23 at the start of the 2016 season. We had finally committed to a full-blooded rebuild. Lachie Henderson, Tom Bell, Troy Menzel and Chris Yarran had just been traded out of the club, signifying a sharp end to the club's doldrum years of 2011-2014. Throughout that period the club had a spattering of potential, Lachie Henderson had genuine A-Grade games, Chris Yarran took games by the scruff of the neck and we had a solid list of AFL tryers like Tom Bell, Andrew Carrazzo and Mitch Robinson. The club's actions this off-season signified a commitment to pursuing something bigger. While enjoyable, our 2013 victory over Richmond got us nowhere, we were a mid-tier club without the quality to push for a flag. This transition is no more perfectly symbolized than in the retirement of Chris Judd. With the great-ones retirement, the Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer, Judd "Chosen-Ones" era had ended. An unfortunate failure, the years with Chris Judd as our champion ultimately came up short, due in large to the consistent failures of drafting across the years - especially across the later rounds. The players delisted at the end of the 2015 season are a testament to that, Blaine Johnson, Nick Holman, Tom Fields, Matthew Watson, Brad Walsh, are names that never found success at Carlton. The factors of this failure area undoubtedly dual, with our obvious inability to develop players coupled with poor drafting generally. This off-season was unequivocally the end of those doldrum years, the start of our rebuild and the beginning of our journey.

The Rebuild really began this off-season both off-field and on-field. The off-field stuff is best left out of this rebuild, so we will focus on the on-field additions. It was this off-season that we added Jacob Weitering, Charlie Curnow, David Cuningham, and Harry McKay, as well as Lachie Plowman through trade, who would become the core of our current spine. We would add to these additions over the years through trades and the draft, eventually adding Marchbank, Petrevski-Seton, Matthew Kennedy, Zac Fisher, Will Setterfield, Mitch McGovern and a host of other young quality talent. But we didn't have this talent in Round 1 2016, at that point in time our Youth included such quality names as Viojo-Rainbow, Clem Smith, Gallucci, Sumner, Jaksch and Foster. These players don't represent the talent we have now and this was evident in the Round 1 squad. We had only eight of our then 24 youth in that squad with Docherty, Cripps, Buckley, Graham, Kerridge, Boekhurst, Lamb and Weitering playing Round 1 against the Tigers.

That Round 1 team averaged 131.5 AFL Player Rating Points. Across that first round that figure climbed towards 200 by the end of the season. But this figure was bolstered by the low number of kids we were playing, averaging only 9 youth over the final four rounds. Across the time since that 22nd game, we have made huge strides. Our average youth numbers shot up in the second season and would continue to climb towards the 66th game. By the 66th game we were averaging 15 players per game. As a result of this substantial number of youth, our Average Player Rating didn't climb as fast as expected. But regardless of this point, it's clear to all that we have made substantial gains. Unlike that 2015 team, we have a substantial core of quality players, the latest additions of Walsh, Stocker, McGovern and Setterfield have only contributed to that.

Please review the graph below and consider where we are going as a club, this thread will continue next season with further analysis of our best 22.

 

[Jabba73]

Very happy to hear you plan to continue this FBI, has been one of the more in-depth and enjoyable reads to help keep some sanity in the place, while we have necessarily bottomed out. Was a little sceptical about the perceived value of what you proposed, so glad you persisted with the idea.

Thanks for your hard work over the last three seasons and for the work yet to be done this season.

 

[BlueGum]

+1 thanks FBI for the work

 

[TooBlue14]

Very impressive FBI may I suggest a man change to the page. Something along the lines of the message the club is pushing. Phase2.

 

[Stamos]

Very impressive FBI may I suggest a man change to the page. Something along the lines of the message the club is pushing. Phase2.

Yeah, the rebuild was completed on Friday. That’s not to say there won’t be more adjustments to the list, but we are rebuilt. On to Phase 2.