Tracking the current top three sides (2007-2010)

[Tarkyn_24]

I've done a bit of statistical analysis over on TAE, and I thought it might be worthwhile sharing for those interested.

Well let's see. Against St Kilda (excluding the weekend just gone) and Geelong, Collingwood really do struggle.

Geelong are the benchmark and as such, Collingwood won't beat them anytime soon

**** you guys manipulate statistics to suit yourself. I remember harvs doing something similar, contrasting Collingwood's record against St Kilda since 2004. This period encompasses two years of Collingwood placing relatively low on the ladder whilst St Kilda played preliminary finals. When I extended the sample space back two years further back to get a truer reflection of the two teams, apparently I was removing the comparison too far back into the history - yet Collingwood only had one fewer member of their 2002/2009 comparison than their 2004/2009 comparison playing in the game. Indicating, essentially, that if the 2004 games were relevant to the discussion, so too were the 2002 clashes.

Same goes for considering St Kilda/Geelong when talking about Collingwood. Few clubs would even match Collingwood's record against these sides in the past four seasons. It's a matter of convenience for people to write Collingwood off on the basis of largely irrelevant evidence. The past four seasons are periods during which Collingwood and St Kilda can be considered to have fared similarly. Using a ranking point distribution, with 16th receiving one point and 1st receiving 16, they've performed similarly*.

*Prior to the last round, St Kilda and Collingwood had identical ranking point distributions.

Since 2007
Geelong
Premierships: 2
Grand Finals: 3
Preliminary Finals: 3
Ranking Point Dist (2007-2009): 47...15.7
Ranking Point Dist (2007 - R16 2010): 62...15.5

Record v Coll/St K
L v StK by 24pts
W v Coll by 36pts
W v StK by 12pts
W v Coll by 73pts
L v StK by 6pts
W v Coll by 27pts
W v StK by 58pts
L v Coll by 86pts
W v StK by 42pts
W v Coll by 5pts
W v Coll by 16pts
W v StK by 60pts
=75.0 % W/L

St Kilda
Premierships: 0
Grand Finals: 1
Preliminary Finals: 2
Ranking Point Dist (2007-2009): 36...12.0
Ranking Point Dist (2007- R16 2010): 50...12.5

Record v Geel/Coll
L v Coll by 48pts
W v Geel by 24pts
W v Coll by 28pts
L v Geel by 12pts
W v Coll by 28pts
W v Geel by 6pts
W v Coll by 88pts
W v Coll by 34pts
L v Geel by 58pts
L v Coll by 14pts
L v Coll by 9pts
L v Geel by 42pts
L v Coll by 9pts
L v Geel by 60pts

=42.9% W/L

Collingwood
Premierships: 0
Grand Finals: 0
Preliminary Finals: 2
Ranking Point Dist (2007-2009): 37...12.3
Ranking Point Dist (2007 - R16 2010): 53...13.3

Record v Geel/StK
W v StK by 48pts
L v Geel by 36pts
L v StK by 28pts
L v Geelong by 73pts
L v StK by 28pts
L v StK by 88pts
L v Geelong by 27pts
L v StK by 24pts
W v StK by 14pts
W v Geelong by 86pts
W v StK by 9pts
L v Geelong by 5pts
L v Geelong by 16pts
W v StK by 9pts

= 35.7% W/L

Over this period St Kilda have had only one more victory over Geel/Coll than Coll has had over StK/Geel.

During the same time period, the clubs have lost experience;

(Edit in as I find figures)

FWIW, both Collingwood's average winning margin and average losing margin against Geelong surpasses St Kilda's.

Coll: avg win (v Geel) = 86.0pts, avg loss (v Geel) = 31.4pts
StK: avg win (v Geel) = 15.0pts, avg loss (v Geel) = 43.0pts

Suggesting Collingwood run BETTER in terms of average margins with Geelong than St Kilda have across Geelong's period of dominance.

(I'll undertake additional research to find who has the better performances in terms of scores for and against, and percentage.)

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Obviously, the most alarming trend was that of seven consecutive losses against St Kilda and Geelong heading into the Round 16 clash. That said, to emerge victorious last week suggests that we've bucked the trend, and considering the considerable generational shift between our Round 3 and Round 16 sides - and potentially, into the future, I think we can agree that we're moving in the right direction.

 

[theaussietilt]

Obviously, the most alarming trend was that of seven consecutive losses against St Kilda and Geelong heading into the Round 16 clash. That said, to emerge victorious last week suggests that we've bucked the trend, and considering the considerable generational shift between our Round 3 and Round 16 sides - and potentially, into the future, I think we can agree that we're moving in the right direction.

Note that in your sample period St Kilda lost six in a row before turning the tide and winning six of the next seven. Looking to the future I'm not too concerned about the seven in a row that we've lost, we've shown we can win against St Kilda now and our likely list development relative to the two teams suggest there's no reason why we can't win more than we lose over the next few years.

 

[Thommo 42]

Keep in mind the following.

Our 2008 finals loss to St.Kilda, was off the back of consecutive trips to Perth, then Adelaide - and Didak and Shaw were serving a club suspension.

Our 2 x losses to the Saints in 2009. First one was essentially our reserves side and we got smashed, we also got smashed by 10 goals by Carlton the following week. Not a good representative sample of our actual side. Our finals loss, Scott Pendlebury broke his leg 90 seconds into the game.

Against Geelong, we've been competitive with them in every match we've played for the last 4 years except the 2009 Prelim

 

[The Get Up Kid]

I hope I'm not getting lost with where this is going but how does finals v these teams rank? I think it really does read pathetic for Collingwood. Look at Geelong's losses, the only one which counted was the 6pt loss last year and they turned it around in the GF. I think the time of year needs to be taken into account. Hopefully our next period starting with last weekend's game creates records like 75% win ratio against quality sides!

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Keep in mind the following.

Our 2008 finals loss to St.Kilda, was off the back of consecutive trips to Perth, then Adelaide - and Didak and Shaw were serving a club suspension.

Our 2 x losses to the Saints in 2009. First one was essentially our reserves side and we got smashed, we also got smashed by 10 goals by Carlton the following week. Not a good representative sample of our actual side. Our finals loss, Scott Pendlebury broke his leg 90 seconds into the game.

Against Geelong, we've been competitive with them in every match we've played for the last 4 years except the 2009 Prelim

Precisely my point.

The OP might not be entirely applicable, because, as I'm sure you'll have figured, I was responding to those that still believe Colingwood aren't genuine contenders.

We can only play the clubs they want us to prove ourselves against a maximum of seven times a year. This sample is as representative as any of how we fare against the benchmark, and a club considered to be the benchmark. The result? We aren't that far off, and given our most recent result, the gap is closing,

 

[Thommo 42]

and we haven't played finals in 07/08/09 without significant outs.

In 2007, we went into the Prelim without Josh Fraser, which no matter what anyone says, at the time, was a huge out - especially given we replaced him with Richards and Ottens was BOG for Geelong.

In 2008, we went into the finals with Didak and Shaw suspended.

In 2009, Pendles broke his leg in the first 90 seconds of the final series - essentially tking any chance of a premiership with him.

Touch wood, this year we go in with a full list.