Roast Umpiring: Corruption or Incompetence, or both

[S.Patrol.G]

so WCE has a free kick differential "double" the next best

carn....

They are to team free kicks, what Selwood is to individual free kicks.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We aren’t faring too well in recent years on the free kick count ( since Ken arrived)View attachment 508739

Port's history and what stands out and maybe why it occured - 2005 we were hunted and we got pissed off as we yo-yoed and hit back too hard sometimes. 2008 I reckon the oppo got stuck into us about our shit GF performance and we played angry in a lot of games and lost it. 2010 not sure why. 2011 the umpires felt sorry for us. 2016 we just played poorly in a lot of games and gave away too many dumb frees in frustration.

 

[S.Patrol.G]

5:36

Disappointing.

Wow Ken, just wow. If you could just bend a little more at the knee please. Why? I'll tell you why. It's called standing up for your players. Meek.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

so WCE has a free kick differential "double" the next best

carn....

What do you mean by carn? You didn't know or its not good enough. Everyone has know they get favourable umpiring for years and the last few years there has been plenty of data presented. See the first page of this thread where The Arc since 2016 has been providing data from 2000 about their favourable biased treatment.

 

[Spadge]

What do you mean by carn? You didn't know or its not good enough. Everyone has know they get favourable umpiring for years and the last few years there has been plenty of data presented. See the first page of this thread where The Arc since 2016 has been providing data from 2000 about their favourable biased treatment.

By that i meant i knew they got looked after but i didnt know what the extent of that was.

the "carn" was in response to how ridiculous that free differential is compared to the rest of the comp. If thats not favourtism i dont know what is

 

[badbeats]

Free kick differential

 

[bomberclifford]

so WCE has a free kick differential "double" the next best

carn....

... and with over 1200 difference with their local rivals, so it's not a home ground factor, it's specifically about them.

 

[mynameissilver]

After looking at that graph it ain't incompetence

 

[Spadge]

looking at the graph its the same teams every year too

over the span of 15 years with many different players going through clubs.. it cant be a coincidence

 

[Grave Danger]

Footscray's +112 in their flag year is clearly an outlier, so just ignore that, ok. It looks like we received a modicum of assistance (comparatively) in our deeply shit years, but really got punished for 2004.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Footscray's +112 in their flag year is clearly an outlier, so just ignore that, ok. It looks like we received a modicum of assistance (comparatively) in our deeply shit years, but really got punished for 2004.

Look again it was 2005 we got punished. We had net +7 frees in 2004 which compared to WCE's +71 in 2006 and Bulldogs in 2016 it looks punished but Sydney had -97 in 2005, Collingwood -2 in 2010, Hawks were -3, +11 and +18 in their 3peat and Richmond -60.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

... and with over 1200 difference with their local rivals, so it's not a home ground factor, it's specifically about them.

Its the home crowd factor in part though. WCE had a full house every game long before Freo started averaging 30k at Subi, so they had a 15 year lead time of bringing loud parochial crowds who got inside the umpires heads. It should have evened out somewhat over the last decades figures, but it hasn't.

 

[Grave Danger]

Look again it was 2005 we got punished.

That's what I said

 

[Spadge]

Interesting than the Crows and the WA crows are well ahead in the ledger, yet the "poor cousins" are both well behind in the ledger

 

[TeeKray]

Its the home crowd factor in part though. WCE had a full house every game long before Freo started averaging 30k at Subi, so they had a 15 year lead time of bringing loud parochial crowds who got inside the umpires heads. It should have evened out somewhat over the last decades figures, but it hasn't.

Freo and WCE crowds are totally different. WCE games are akin to a political rally and the umpires are public enemy number one. It has to be seen to be believed to be honest.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Footscray's +112 in their flag year is clearly an outlier, so just ignore that, ok. It looks like we received a modicum of assistance (comparatively) in our deeply shit years, but really got punished for 2004.

The fact that our four best years for FK differential were 2009-2012 really puts paid to the whole ‘be first to the ball and you’ll get more frees!’ narrative too.

Freo and WCE crowds are totally different. WCE games are akin to a political rally and the umpires are public enemy number one. It has to be seen to be believed to be honest.

I’ve seen West Coast supporters genuinely argue that we had the umpires in our pocket for the 2017 EF. Yes, the same 2017 EF that we drew in regulation time because Eric Mackenzie was allowed to run straight into the behind post without being called for deliberate, and that we lost in overtime because of a head high free kick paid to a serial sucker that the umpiring department later admitted was incorrect. We had the umpires in our pocket that day apparently.

 

[Chrizzt]

The fact that our four best years for FK differential were 2009-2012 really puts paid to the whole ‘be first to the ball and you’ll get more frees!’ narrative too.

Do teams that win contested ball win more free kicks?

... To look into this relationship a little further, we can compare free kick and contested possession figures for every game since 1999. It turns out to be true that teams that win the contested possession count in a particular game also tend to win the free kick count, but the relationship is pretty weak and noisy.
...
It turns out that the biggest effect on net free kicks, on average, comes from being the West Coast Eagles. If the Eagles are playing at home against a team other than Freo, and the sides draw on possessions and tackles, then on average you’d expect West Coast to end the night with 3.58 more free kicks than their opponents. We’d only expect the Eagles to draw even with their opponents on the free kick count if the away team won around 40 more contested possessions than West Coast.

 

[Andre]

The fact that our four best years for FK differential were 2009-2012 really puts paid to the whole ‘be first to the ball and you’ll get more frees!’ narrative too.

Frees when we were shit, less when a risk of us being successful.

2003 - look good, down.
2004 - this mob is perennial chokers, doesn’t matter if they get any
2005 - we’ll that was a mistake, don’t give them
2006 - on the way down can award
2007 - oops, not so bad
2008 - shit they made a GF, crucify
2009-2012 - this mob is a joke
2013 - new coach, new oval (arrived or soon), doing ok, keep them down

Other then looking at us, the biggest surprises for me is how well North has done, considering they aren’t AFL love child’s, as not a big Vic club and Essendon doing poorly (even prior to supplements where the AFL could be getting petty revenge).

 

[Garibaldi Red]

Even Tim Lane having a shot at the umpiring

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Umpires pets.

 

[Ian Jackson]

That graph changed sinificantly after 2012. What happened then? Looked to be more variable up to then. From then on there seems to be distinctly favoured and non favoured teams.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Umpires pets.

Joel Selwood a clear +100 ahead of the next player. Colour me shocked.

 

[bomberclifford]

Umpires pets.

I like how they don't even acknowledge the decade that Dangerfield spent at the Crows.

 

[Andre]

Umpires pets.

Add in zero surprise they are all from either Vic clubs or the VFL’s favourite two non-Vic clubs of West Coast or Adelaide (Dangerfield).

 

[Lagooner]

Premiership players, Brownlow medalists, Chris Mayne lol.