- Aug 23, 2007
- 3,907
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- Rory Sloane
Very popular Dter is Ellis; he has risen in price so is it time to upgrade/downgrade?
Thoughts on who your going to get?
Thoughts on who your going to get?
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Upgrading/Downgrading Ellis
- Thread starter Porps_is_HOT_loz
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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Obviously upgrade. Theres no one to downgrade to. Im looking at Milburn, Goddard, Gilbee and Bowden.
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force65
Team Captain
Same here
Keeping him for the moment, and unless he can get within 30 or 40k of PB, I'll likely keep him for a time more.
keeping him, has been a great player so far and only suffered on the weekend because of his rediculously low tog due to the close game, hawthorn wont have too many close games this year and i think this will mean ellis will get more game time and hence more cheap back line marks/kicks...there are more forwards who have dropped in price which look in need of upgrading to atm
as a non-Ellis owner myself, i would find it strange you're looking to get rid of him.
if all the leaders own him too, his scores won't matter that much (for now)
and considering the overall standard of the backs - there aren't too many guns going around for this to be a necessary trade at this point in time.
51 was Ellis' lowest score this season with his next lowest being 68, so the 51 is most likely an outlier. His breakeven is only 63 which he should make. I still see him rising a little, however he is currently at 92% of his real price ($272,100 to $295,500) so now could be as good a time as ever to offload him if there is a bargain around.
I'll probably be looking at trading him to one of Fisher, Goddard, Burgoyne, Waters or Milburn, with Burgoyne the most expensive out of the 5 as soon as they've bottomed out. I'm leaning towards Milburn due to his consistency and his 42 should bring him down quite a bit in the next few weeks. What do you guys reckon is the best upgrade choice?
I'll probably be looking at trading him to one of Fisher, Goddard, Burgoyne, Waters or Milburn, with Burgoyne the most expensive out of the 5 as soon as they've bottomed out. I'm leaning towards Milburn due to his consistency and his 42 should bring him down quite a bit in the next few weeks. What do you guys reckon is the best upgrade choice?
With the quality of Backs this Year, Ellis is a definite Keeper! He will hold a high 70 low 80 average and be very consistent. Only look to trade him if Dew steels his spot!
JMTC
Molly
JMTC
Molly
his price and milburn's should match in a couple of weeks, or be close enough anyway, looking to make a relatively straight swap.
unless ellis has a couple of great games or something...
unless ellis has a couple of great games or something...
he only had 67% game time and this was largely due to the fact that hawthorn had the strongest team on the park that they've had all year. i can't see this changing all year unless the hawks are struck down by injury.
Apparently 17,615 coaches own him as of today, but I'm not one of them.
I had him last year as a cow, and was in the mix pre-season this year for the "marked for improvement" spot in my backline. In the end I decided to go for Johncock, same price, and a more established track record. I also figured Johncock might start to take points off McLeod out of defence, and that playing off HB King might get his points stolen by Bowden - who was the undisputed king of cheap possession off the HB line (and has been for years).
It's too early to tell whether my Johncock/McLeod call was right, but Stiffy has been solid enough to keep a guernsey (certainly not my worst performer!), but who could tell Wallace was going to dump Bowden? Now I have to be honest here and say I haven't seen a Richmond game this season (I get 3 games per week on satellite, and no say in which 3 they are - haven't even seen a Dockers game yet... but maybe that's a good thing), but the stats seem to tell me that King is taking Bowden's points - could be he is being groomed for the role?
I think that at a current price of 362,800 King is too pricey to trade in as a keeper (I'm picking he might settle around the 370-390K mark) - for me there is still too much risk associated with a). his ability to keep the consistency, and b). any change in role should Bowden be allowed to play his normal game. But if you had him from Rd 1 - good call, and you've found yourself a premium out of the pool of speculatives.
Sorry to derail the Ellis thread. FWIW, Ellis is probably about where he's going to stay; a decrease in game time because of returning playters makes me think he will pan out at 300K. If that's netting you enough points and you don't have a spare 100-150K to upgrade to a Cornes, etc then keep him. He is likely a better performer than your 7th back, so they should be a trade focus...