USA Mid Term elections in November

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Pretty good article by CBS News.

The 2022 midterm elections could be the most consequential in years, possibly defying political history and resetting modern political norms.

Every seat in the House of Representatives is up for grabs, as are 35 U.S. Senate seats and 36 governorships. Several other down-ballot races for secretary of state, attorney general or control of state legislatures could have wide-ranging effects on the management of the 2024 presidential elections, plus hot-button issues like abortion rights, climate change and health care.

In Washington, Republicans are still in a position to net enough seats in the House to take control, "but a tumultuous summer has made their advantage appear a little smaller today — with a trend so far pointing toward narrow gains instead of a wave," according to the CBS News Battleground Tracker. Currently, Democrats hold small majorities in the House and Senate.

It takes 218 seats to win control of the House, and the Tracker currently estimates that if the House elections were held today, Republicans would see a net gain of 13 seats and hold 226 seats, while Democrats would win 209.

In the Senate, Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to flip control of the evenly divided chamber. CBS News classifies 10 of the 35 races as battleground contests – four are considered "tossups" (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin); three are leaning in favor of the Republican candidate (Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio); and three are leaning toward the Democrat (Colorado, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire).

Key Issues
The economy and inflation:
Voting and elections issues:
Crime and gun policy:
Abortion rights:
Biden low popularity rating:


How many House seats are up for election?

All 435 House seats are on the ballot this November, since every seat is up for election every two years. A majority of the seats aren't necessarily considered competitive, a result of redistricting and the partisan nature of federal races. But a CBS News analysis of congressional maps finds 81 "competitive seats" that tend to be won by Democrats by five or less points, or by Republicans by five or less points.

How many House seats do Republicans need to take control from Democrats?
The GOP needs a net gain of at least five seats to reach the 218 seats needed to win the House. After a string of special election results this summer, Republicans hold 212 seats while Democrats have 221. There are two vacancies that will have special elections on the ballot in November, a likely Republican seat in Indiana and a Republican-leaning seat in Florida.

Which Senate races are toss-ups in 2022?
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin
 
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My senate prediction. I have NV going red. AZ getting Republican support of the back of Kari Lake and enough to elevate master. Walker getting the job done in GA. I don't have Oz getting over the line in PA, seems to far underwater. Only other state that looks in play is WI which should be a hold. So 52-48.
 

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Nevada is an interesting state - Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has a slim lead over Adam Laxalt (R) but the rural/urban balance could see this go to the wire

Among women, Cortez Masto now leads by 23 points, 53%-30%, compared to a six-point lead in April, prior to the Nevada party primaries. Among white voters Cortez Masto trails 45%-42%, but in April her deficit was more pronounced when Laxalt led 55%-31%.

The top four issues according to the poll were inflation/economy (34%), abortion (13%), election fraud (11%), and education (10%). Among those most concerned about the economy Laxalt led Masto 60-21%, while among those most concerned about abortion Masto led 79%-11%.


Its the economy stupid was first used in 1992 and the above highlights the truth of this - with 34% concerned over the economy the suggested margin for Laxalt could be worth 2% alone

But it could come down to Urban Abortion v Rural Economy

Poll Shows Nevada Democrat Cortez Masto Leading in Senate Race, Buoyed by Women Voters - Suffolk University

Georgia has a name candidate in Herschel Walker former NFL player and the margin is 1.6% projected.

Arizona is staying (D) as Republicans abandon the state -

A super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has canceled nearly $10 million it had reserved for television ads in Arizona, an official with the group said Tuesday, pulling out of a battleground state where Republican challenger Blake Masters trails Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in the polls.

Before you say ' but others are investing' it seems all is not right

Law said the spending from those other groups means the SLF can “pursue offensive opportunities” and “concentrate our efforts” to flip the evenly divided Senate

But the SLF has yet to pull out of New Hampshire, where the GOP nominee, Don Bolduc, is polling well behind Democratic incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan.


Smells like abandonment to me - Kelly leads Masters by %5 projected

Wisconsin has tightened considerably in just 1 month - is that going to hold or will the numbers revert? But as it stands Johnson (R) has a slight lead over Barnes (D)


Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., has closed the gap in his re-election race, erasing a seven-point deficit to take a one-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

While Johnson’s 49%-48% lead among likely voters is within the poll’s margin of error, it’s a huge reversal for Johnson in the Marquette Law School poll, considered the gold standard of polling in Wisconsin. In last month's Marquette survey, Barnes led Johnson by seven points, 51% to 44%.
 
Nevada is an interesting state - Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has a slim lead over Adam Laxalt (R) but the rural/urban balance could see this go to the wire

Among women, Cortez Masto now leads by 23 points, 53%-30%, compared to a six-point lead in April, prior to the Nevada party primaries. Among white voters Cortez Masto trails 45%-42%, but in April her deficit was more pronounced when Laxalt led 55%-31%.

The top four issues according to the poll were inflation/economy (34%), abortion (13%), election fraud (11%), and education (10%). Among those most concerned about the economy Laxalt led Masto 60-21%, while among those most concerned about abortion Masto led 79%-11%.


Its the economy stupid was first used in 1992 and the above highlights the truth of this - with 34% concerned over the economy the suggested margin for Laxalt could be worth 2% alone

But it could come down to Urban Abortion v Rural Economy

Poll Shows Nevada Democrat Cortez Masto Leading in Senate Race, Buoyed by Women Voters - Suffolk University

Georgia has a name candidate in Herschel Walker former NFL player and the margin is 1.6% projected.

Arizona is staying (D) as Republicans abandon the state -

A super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has canceled nearly $10 million it had reserved for television ads in Arizona, an official with the group said Tuesday, pulling out of a battleground state where Republican challenger Blake Masters trails Sen. Mark Kelly (D) in the polls.

Before you say ' but others are investing' it seems all is not right

Law said the spending from those other groups means the SLF can “pursue offensive opportunities” and “concentrate our efforts” to flip the evenly divided Senate

But the SLF has yet to pull out of New Hampshire, where the GOP nominee, Don Bolduc, is polling well behind Democratic incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan.


Smells like abandonment to me - Kelly leads Masters by %5 projected

Wisconsin has tightened considerably in just 1 month - is that going to hold or will the numbers revert? But as it stands Johnson (R) has a slight lead over Barnes (D)


Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., has closed the gap in his re-election race, erasing a seven-point deficit to take a one-point lead over his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, according to a new poll released Wednesday.

While Johnson’s 49%-48% lead among likely voters is within the poll’s margin of error, it’s a huge reversal for Johnson in the Marquette Law School poll, considered the gold standard of polling in Wisconsin. In last month's Marquette survey, Barnes led Johnson by seven points, 51% to 44%.
Good analysis, its going down to thr wire thats for sure



New poll out of Arizona today, I hope RINO mitch puts the funding back in.
 
Its the economy stupid was first used in 1992 and the above highlights the truth of this - with 34% concerned over the economy the suggested margin for Laxalt could be worth 2% alone
What I'm confused about is why voters think Republicans are better in the economy. Their answer to every economic situation seems to be cutting taxes and cutting government spending.
 
What I'm confused about is why voters think Republicans are better in the economy. Their answer to every economic situation seems to be cutting taxes and cutting government spending.
It's similar to the LNP ' better economic managers ' meme.

Both have grabbed that high ground and it no longer matters if it's true or not - it's now a belief.

The failure is by the other side to deliver a counterpoint that sticks
 
It's similar to the LNP ' better economic managers ' meme.

Both have grabbed that high ground and it no longer matters if it's true or not - it's now a belief.

The failure is by the other side to deliver a counterpoint that sticks
What a shame that the public in both countries are so gullible.
 
What I'm confused about is why voters think Republicans are better in the economy. Their answer to every economic situation seems to be cutting taxes and cutting government spending.

If the role of government is so stripped back as to solely be the facilitator of market transactions (and through this our understanding of how government measures the economy) then that’s probably always going to be something the right outpolls the left on, because we’re essentially measuring it on their own terms.

I even knew a union organiser who said the whole “the Coalition are better economic managers” thing. It’s an entirely subjective view (and begs the question of “better for who”) that has been repeated so endlessly as to become fact.
 
I've been banned from the Trump thread. Gentlemen... this is democracy manifest.
A mate rocked up to a grand final party wearing this on Saturday, pretty funny :tearsofjoy:

white-this-is-democracy-manifest-tshirt-kids_700x.jpg
 

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Lake takes the lead, masters still tailing but i think.y prediction will hold that lake drags him over the line
 
I don't understand how that guy crammed so many absolutely classic lines into a few minutes while getting arrested. He just keeps giving!
I always crack up at " I'm under WHAT !?!?!?!? "
 
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Thirty-five of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for election, 14 Democrat, 21 Republican.
If Democrats can hold on to their 14 and gain one or two, will have majority in the Senate.

Fifty-one representatives and one non-voting delegate (32 Democrats, 20 Republicans) are up for election in the House.
This is where the Republicans will have a real chance of taking the House.
 

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