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Analysis Using Data to Identify Midfield Targets

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I’d like us to be looking at the second tier comps and pick out the best tagger in the country at a vfl level to play the Mullins role at geelong.. doesn’t have to be a ball gatherer just a tackling and shut down machine ..
 
Dylan82 said:
So what does 2025 present for us?


1. Accelerated Development

If you recall, this filter is based upon the following means:
  • Top 150 before the year the player turns 21
  • Top 100 before the year the player turns 22
  • Top 50 before the year the player turns 24
  • Top 20 before the year the player turns 25


The expected names are there once again, although we also see two players who have played just 10 matches between them this year in E.Tsatas and K.McAuliffe.



2. AI Predicted Improvement

Two sets of figures, one positive and the other negative.

Positive figures align with stoppage midfielders, higher values indicate greater potential. Above +4 gives a greater than 80% probability over the past 16 years of becoming an elite top 20 midfielder. Figures above +8 all but guarantee development of super-elite talent.

Negative figures are somewhat more nebulous – perhaps the best fit to describe it would be ‘stoppage-to-stoppage capacity’, lower values indicate greater potential. Figures below -1 appear to signal ability to transition to a more stoppage-focused role. Below -4 all but guarantees development of super-elite talent.


In a year where the future has become the present, 10 of the top 15 midfielders in the competition this season according to the ranked [CP + CL + In50] system are aged 25 or under.

As a result, the output here describes those who have been dominant on the inside and outside respectively, forecasting that dominance will continue into the future as well.

High draftees L.Ashcroft and S.Lalor head the ranks of new talent to be found.

Interestingly, E.Tsatas from the previous list also gains a +3 here. H.Reid, positioned away from midfield during the first half of the year, fails to make a showing. Fellow Eagles E.Hewett, and perhaps to some surprise T.Brockman, do make an appearance.



3. Looking for Opportunity

Taking the data of Yeo in 2017 and giving it to an AI as a template to build a model around, to identify similar players waiting for a greater midfield opportunity.


And now we find H.Reid – who will without question get more time in the midfield if he can maintain his conditioning off the field. Reflective of the nature of the season overall, the players listed here as having potential for rapid development are typically much younger than in previous years, with all the primary candidates aged 22 or younger. Eagle C.Hall makes the list.

To emphasise the general inexperience of this list, only D.Moore of Hawthorn, listed as a secondary candidate due to his smaller physical size possibly limiting his potential to impact the midfield, has played more than 50 games with 122.



4. Yeo 2014 – Early Identification

Taking the data of Yeo in 2014, and of other players prior to their initial breakout seasons – to forecast the next generation of stars under development. The downside with this model output is it generally tends to repeat what has already been described earlier in addition to having a list that is overly long.


43 players listed, 4 from West Coast (H.Reid, E.Hewett, T.Brockman, B.Hough).

Hawthorn leads the competition with 5 listings, Carlton the only club without a representative – indeed, Carlton have not had a player here since S.Walsh in 2021 – great job with that pick decision again Eagles…



5. Stoppage Potential Starting in Defence

The Stoppage Potential model used last year has been discarded, as its outputs weren’t really that useful (repeating those already mentioned in other models interspersed with players that turn out more likely to be delisted rather than excel.

With more data (and more time to interrogate that data), an alternative model pathway was identified – accumulators that start behind play and then transition into the midfield as they mature. Looking retrospectively, this model identifies the following players long before they were entrenched in the midfield: J.Dawson, W.Day (2021); H.Young, E.Richards, N.Daicos (2022); H.Sheezel (2023); N.Wanganeen-Milera (2024).


The Lions appear well-placed to maintain their ascendancy in the middle into the future according to this model.



6. Scheduled for Take-off

In this instance, the AI was given the dataset and tasked to identify which midfielders could be expected to improve the most in the following year. This relatively simple model started out as a means of validating and training some of the aforementioned models above, but seeing the way it has picked up on players, I’ll put its output here also.

In 2024, these players were identified:



Now it has these players flagged for 2026:


Naz and Kosi are almost to be expected, J.Ward may be of surprise to some though.



7. Expanding the horizon

I have long been of the opinion that there are several players out there in the wilderness, plying their trade in the state leagues who could perform well at the top level if granted an opportunity. The success of two players in particular this season, N.Long (Collingwood) and T.McCarthy (West Coast), has only furthered this belief.

With go-home to WA options very thin amongst the AFL cohort (for example the 43 players identified above in the early identification model – just 7 are from WA: 3 are already at the club, 2 are at Fremantle, and the remaining 2 just re-signed with their respective interstate clubs), combined with winning just 11 games in 4 years, the challenge in pitching the club over rivals when it comes to recruitment targets is currently massive – indeed, second-tier players that have been overlooked elsewhere may be where it is forced to go should other avenues prove unsuccessful.

Unfortunately, trying to get decent statistics to analyse players at this level of competition has been a black box – until now. Thanks to Wheelo Ratings we actually have good statistical coverage from season 2024 onwards that can be used as a dataset for interrogation.


So, what is it about Ned Long? 195cm and able to run a 6:05 2km in his draft year – attributes that recruiters typically fall over themselves for. Taken by Hawthorn in the 2021 rookie draft, but was unable to prove a point of difference from other big aerobic utilities/midfielders that the Hawks were stocking up on (W.Day, H.Hustwaite, C.Nash, J.Weddle, F.Maginness, C.Mackenzie) and was delisted after two seasons and 5 games. Went back to Collingwood VFL and smashed it as an onball player, prompting Collingwood AFL to take him in the mid-season draft of that same year. Provided with opportunity due to the injuries to J.de Goey and T.Mitchell, he has been a key component in how the Magpies have revitalised this year after missing finals altogether in 2024.

Collingwood don’t excel at clearances, contested possessions, or turnover ball – but they are number one in the competition for pressure, tackling and intercepts. And N.Long is the tip of that spear. He leads the club for both tackling and pressure – ranking inside the top 10 of both statistics across the entire competition. At his size, only J.Dunkley, W.Setterfield and A.Davies are producing comparable figures.

His ability to serve the block-and-peel role around stoppage, being the first receiver to facilitate 1-2s for N.Daicos, is fundamental to the Magpie’s offensive output.

In 2025, when N.Long has had over 20 disposals, Collingwood are 10-1 (with the sole loss being the Round 23 match against Adelaide where they had +34 inside 50s and somehow failed to win).

Conversely, when N.Long has had 20 or less disposals, Collingwood are 7-6.


With that lengthy introduction out of the way, does our second-tier dataset have much to say about finding another Ned Long-type, working away in relative obscurity?

Given the limitations (just 2 years of data), two things become very apparent when cross-referencing this set:
  • almost every player with similar performance, size (188+cm) and age (25 or younger) is already on an AFL list, or has a previous affiliation with one.
  • The younger a player is when they appear on output lists appears to correlate with being able to translate performance to AFL.


Now onto T.McCarthy. The mid-season draft pick has been a revelation – he leads West Coast in disposals and metres gained per match and has arguably been the club’s best player in the second half of the year. His ability to take play on, make good decisions and execute well appears ready-made for the direction that AFL football is heading.

What’s better than one T.McCarthy? Finding a second one of course.

For Richmond VFL in 2025, T.McCarthy exhibited a combination of accumulation at very high efficiency, whilst maintaining a considerable rate of contested possessions. When we use this as a rule, we get the following output:


Once again, most of the players identified are already affiliated with AFL clubs with a few exceptions.




Targets 2025

So, what are the best options in the data this year? Once again, maintaining a modicum of reality (N.Daicos and M.Rowell for example are completely unrealistic, and similarly players with contracts beyond next year have been excluded as well – removing Western Australian talent like Ch.Warner, Co.Warner, A.Sheldrick, D.Curtin, D.Jones, T.Rivers, H.Boxshall and N.Erasmus from our list), what are some of the other opportunities out there to improve our fortunes in the midfield that are potentially workable?

If we take our identified shortlists of talent, we still find several candidates as possible targets:



Cameron Mackenzie (Hawthorn)
188cm, 84kg, 21/01/2004 (21 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2026

Features in almost all the above models described. A complete player on both inside and outside, he was the only player that featured in both of the second-tier talent models as well.

The no.7 pick in the 2022 draft, he has endured an interrupted 2025, fracturing his hand mid-season and having hamstring problems after his return. Listed as an emergency for the Hawks’ Semi Final win over Adelaide, he was best on ground a couple of days later in the VFL Preliminary Final in a losing effort for Box Hill against Footscray.

He is simply too good a player to not be playing at the highest level. Hawthorn are looking to bring in Z.Merrett from Essendon, which will only further increase the competition there for midfield spots. Reports earlier in the year of C.Mackenzie considering his options have been hosed down by the Hawks, but that has not stopped St Kilda from declaring their interest in pursuing him (he was a previous NGA there that they couldn’t get through the draft).

If the club wants to chase quality, here would be a good starting point.



Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
193cm, 89kg, 18/03/2002 (23 years old)
State: QLD, Contract: 2026

An ever-present in these lists from previous years, A.Davies is noted this year in the “Ned Long” model of second-tier potential.

Didn’t get an AFL start this year until the last week of July, but featured in every match thereafter.

Earlier in the season was widely reported as “keen” to move due to lack of opportunity in the senior team, with several clubs appearing to be circling for his signature, including Collingwood and Geelong who chased hard for him last year.

The combination of a lack of major offers from elsewhere and recent selection in the senior team as a starting midfielder now seems likely to keep him at the Suns.

West Coast should have been all over this earlier in the year when the opportunity to potentially turn his head was there – perhaps they could still throw in a Hail Mary offer, but it looks like the horse has already bolted on this one.



Marcus Windhager (St Kilda)
185cm, 85kg, 16/05/2003 (22 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2025

Another from previous years – M.Windhager has had a contract in front of him all year from St Kilda that remains unsigned three weeks after the club’s season ended. Naturally, this has resulted in a lot of speculation regarding his whereabouts next year.

When your housemate (N.Wanganeen-Milera), at the same age and at the same employer gets paid more than four times what you are being offered, it can cause some frustration.

North Melbourne jumped in and offered twice what St Kilda had put forward, in terms of both salary and years. Melbourne, Essendon, Bulldogs and West Coast have also been linked as having an interest.

With St Kilda now upping their offer to match the number of years coming from the Kangaroos, it may just be a ploy to squeeze as much from the Saints as he can before recommitting.

L.Ryan has announced his intent to move to St Kilda despite being contracted next year, the Eagles could find themselves well-placed for a player swap that is beneficial for both parties if they move quickly on the current situation.



Henry Hustwaite (Hawthorn)
195cm, 86kg, 20/07/2004 (21 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2026

“Desperate” to get out if you believe media reports over the past few weeks.

Down the midfield pecking order at Hawthorn, H.Hustwaite has played just 10 senior matches in three years – with six of those impacted by substitution. His VFL form is imperious, from 17 matches this year has has averaged 29.4 disposals, 17.9 contested possessions, 9.5 clearances and 5.4 tackles per game, earning a place in the 2025 VFL Team of the Year.

Essendon are considering their interest, particularly should the trade of Z.Merrett to Hawthorn occur with H.Hustwaite a possible component of that. Carlton have been linked in the media, but they have publicly denied any interest.

The biggest midfield bull on the market – if West Coast have any genuine intent on building a midfield that can compete for contested possession, they should be all over this in a very aggressive way.




Elijah Tsatas (Essendon)
187cm, 82kg, 18/10/2004 (20 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2026

Scored above +3.0 on the AI Predicted Improvement model. Has arguably struggled to have the same impact at AFL to level compared to VFL, but injury (broken hand, hamstring in 2025) and questionable coaching have had their impact. Somehow it seems everyone has forgotten that the no.5 pick from 2022 is still only 20 years old and has barely been given a chance at the Bombers to show his potential (he has played just two senior matches with more than 65% time on ground in the past two years).

Form at VFL level this season speaks for itself: 34.1 disposals, 15.1 contested possessions, 10.4 clearances, 4.9 score involvements, 4.9 inside 50s, 4.5 tackles on average per game from his 7 matches played.

Unverified reports circulating that Collingwood, Richmond and the two SA teams are tracking his availability. With Z.Merrett potentially on the way out, Essendon may now reassess their appetite for letting him go – the club needs to act now before this opportunity passes.



Will Phillips (North Melbourne)
181cm, 82kg, 22/05/2002 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2025

One of the most polarising players in the competition when it comes to supporter opinion. For a player that appears to be available for very little value, the models suggest there would be something to work with here. Infamously selected at pick no.3 in 2020, what is forgotten is that pre-draft opinions were near-unanimous in that he would be selected inside the top 5. Those expectations have obviously not been realised, and a combination of injury, glandular fever and complete loss of favour with the coaches have brought upon the current situation.

From 12 VFL matches this year, he averaged respectable totals of 23.8 disposals, 11.2 contested possessions, 6.2 clearances and 9.7 tackles per game. Has played just 5 matches with over 70% time on ground at senior level in the past two years.

I think one of the things that have been lost in the discussion of W.Phillips is that he is a L.Neale type of midfielder – stoppage extractor with excellent hands, tackling and two-way coverage, but lacks the physical size to be imposing at the top level. L.Neale has benefitted from the protection from teammates who could enforce their physicality around contests: N.Fyfe, D.Mundy (Fremantle), M.Robinson, J.Berry, J.Dunkley (Brisbane). North Melbourne only have a single midfielder over 185cm on their list in L.Davies-Uniacke, and he is certainly not a defensive presence. It’s a further indictment on North’s recruitment and adds weight to the argument that a change in environment may be what W.Phillips needs to realise that pre-draft potential.

North have not yet offered a new contract and current expectations are that he will be delisted should no offers come in from any rivals before the draft.

This is effectively a free swing – the cost would be negligible, and at the very least his personality and leadership would be exceptionally valuable to the WAFL program. If it were to work out for the senior team then the club would be laughing.



Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
185cm, 85kg, 30/06/2001 (24 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025

Every year, here we are yet again.

Completely frozen out at Brisbane, he can’t even make the emergencies now despite injury impacting the Lions’ midfield. His form at VFL has continued to be very good, averaging 26.1 disposals, 13.3 contested possessions, 6.3 clearances and 6.7 tackles per game from his 15 appearances and has been named in the VFL Team of the Year for 2025.

After their elimination to Box Hill in the VFL, the Lions players gave D.Robertson an applause and had him lead the team off the field – a sure sign that he has played his last game for the club.

If he doesn’t request a trade he will be delisted. West Coast should wait for that and take him in the Pre-Season Draft. Similar to W.Phillips, at minimum he would provide valuable leadership to the WAFL team. To be honest though, despite not being near Brisbane’s best team, he would still walk into West Coast’s best 22 – that’s the reality of where things are at.



Harry Scott (Richmond VFL)
191cm, 85kg, 24/01/2005 (20 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: None

He has the highest ceiling of all current players who have been overlooked by the draft.

Is noticeable that he is the only candidate identified by the “Ned Long” second-tier model over the past two years that has not been on an AFL or Academy list. One of the leading contenders for this year’s VFL Fothergill-Round-Mitchell Medal for the best talent aged 24 or under.

Averaged 21.1 disposals and 8.5 contested possessions per game for Richmond VFL this season, being one of just 12 players to go above 20 and 8 for those statistics before the age of 21 – all of the other 11 are on AFL lists. Also has a strong basketball background, representing Vic Country in Under 16s.

Beyond that, what has turned heads is his movement. He still has pace for a player of his size and his GPS numbers are already comparable to AFL level. Could easily adapt to a D.Curtin style of wing, however his standout ability by hand suggests a future around stoppage beckons.

Richmond want him for their AFL team and will surely use a selection on him before the rookie draft. Last year’s young talent winner in the VFL (S.Davidson) was selected at pick 51 – in this draft where the depth of talent available appears to be lower, I do not foresee H.Scott lasting near as long.

In an ideal world, part of a compensation package would include the ability to pre-list a number of unaffiliated players from second-tier leagues that have previously been overlooked by the draft and that would cover H.Scott. Without that, a pick before 40 is likely to be required.



Angus Anderson (Sturt)
190cm, 90kg, 25/05/2003 (22 years old)
State: NSW, Contract: None

Angus “Bangers” Anderson is an interesting one.

Dominated local football in Sawtell, NSW and then relocated to board at his uncle’s at 15 after being accepted by Eastern Ranges in the Talent League. By the end of the year, Sydney came knocking with an offer to join their Academy program. He was named captain of the Academy team in his first season there and invited to the National Draft Combine. He was seen as the standout Academy prospect of the 2021 draft and was expected to be taken by the Swans.

Until he wasn’t.

After overlooking him, Sydney then offered to effectively make him an “unofficial” player, keeping him in the VFL Swans, and having him train with and be managed by the senior club, rather than the Academy. Special permission was even sought to allow him to play for the senior team in a preseason match against GWS in Albury – the only uncontracted player to feature that day.

His VFL performances continued to impress, his outings in the Talent League looked a level above and from four appearances in the U18 National Championships for the Allies, he was named among the bests on each occasion.

And then he fell off the face of the Earth. I’m not sure what happened, but after the Championships he doesn’t get invited to the National Draft Combine, gets overlooked in the draft again and is suddenly packing his bags to join Sturt in the SANFL.

We’re talking about a 190cm midfield bull, with good hands, who runs both ways, posted a 2km time of 6:14 a year earlier and lead the midfield for the Allies at the National Championships – something doesn’t add up there…

Anyway, his tutelage continued at Sturt, developing his outside game to make him a more complete player. A year in the reserves was followed by a year on the wing in the seniors. And this year, it has all come together. Playing on-ball for a dominant Double Blues team that has lost just the one game all year, A.Anderson has averaged 25.6 disposals, 4.1 clearances, 5.8 tackles, 6.5 inside 50s and a goal per game over past month, including finals.

His form has been recognised in being named in the SANFL Team of the Year for 2025.

He has too much talent to not be playing AFL.



Donovan Toohey (Coburg)
185cm, 84kg, 04/2000 (25 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: None

The only player identified in our “T.McCarthy” model that has not had any current or previous affiliation with an AFL club in either of the past two years. He is also arguably the best kick that exists outside of the AFL.

A relative latecomer due to his prior split commitments with cricket – representing Vic Metro U19s as a wicketkeeper – and only made the decision to start fully pursuing football in 2022.

Consequently, won Fitzroy’s (with whom he has strong family ties) best and fairest in 2023, and in 2024 received the call-up to go from amateur to VFL with Coburg.

A midfielder at Fitzroy, he was moved into defence at the Burgers to make full use of his elite disposal on the rebound and he hasn’t looked back since.

In 2025 he was the only player among the second-tier competitions to average over 20 kicks per game and maintain a disposal efficiency above 75%. He led the VFL in rebounds per game (8.5), in addition to averaging 30.0 disposals and 5.6 contested possessions each game. Named in the VFL Team of the Year for 2025.

The other thing about D.Toohey is that he appears to be a player that steps up to the level that he is exposed to. He made the jump from ammos to VFL without issue. Two years in succession he has been Coburg’s best afield in clashes against the National Academy side. His best performances this season have been against opponents that are loaded with AFL-listed players. With his ability to accumulate possession and execute quickly and to advantage by foot he is made for the way that AFL is now being played.



Cooper Craig-Peters (Footscray VFL)
180cm, 76kg, 10/11/2001 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: None

Also identified on the “T.McCarthy” model, C.Craig-Peters is a former Bulldogs NGA who was overlooked at the draft but has continued to impress at Footscray VFL, where he is vice-captain and reigning best and fairest winner.

Often shunted between roles on-ball, wing and up forward due to the stacked ranks of the Bulldogs’ midfield, CCP has still averaged 22.9 disposals, 12.5 contested possessions, 6.9 clearances, 7.1 tackles and 4.7 score involvements per game – with a disposal efficiency of 77%. It was enough to see him named in the VFL Team of the Year for 2025.

Driven and focussed, in addition to playing for Footscray VFL, he works full time as a stonemason and is completing a Bachelor of Criminology. His favourite player growing up was Ben Cousins.

A player who is hard at the contest, has explosive pace, is defensively accountable and uses the ball very well – what is not to like about that? The only mark against him is his diminutive size – which hasn’t been a factor at VFL level – and he has demonstrated that he is very capable of succeeding on the outside as wing or a forward that pushes up the ground.

He presents a potential array of attributes that are sorely lacking in the current West Coast AFL squad.




There is the list for 2025, hopefully some of them make their way to the club and improve it.
Click to expand...
Epic work. Now thats analysis. Pin this to the draftees and contracts thread
 
Dylan82 said:
So what does 2025 present for us?


1. Accelerated Development

If you recall, this filter is based upon the following means:
  • Top 150 before the year the player turns 21
  • Top 100 before the year the player turns 22
  • Top 50 before the year the player turns 24
  • Top 20 before the year the player turns 25


The expected names are there once again, although we also see two players who have played just 10 matches between them this year in E.Tsatas and K.McAuliffe.



2. AI Predicted Improvement

Two sets of figures, one positive and the other negative.

Positive figures align with stoppage midfielders, higher values indicate greater potential. Above +4 gives a greater than 80% probability over the past 16 years of becoming an elite top 20 midfielder. Figures above +8 all but guarantee development of super-elite talent.

Negative figures are somewhat more nebulous – perhaps the best fit to describe it would be ‘stoppage-to-stoppage capacity’, lower values indicate greater potential. Figures below -1 appear to signal ability to transition to a more stoppage-focused role. Below -4 all but guarantees development of super-elite talent.


In a year where the future has become the present, 10 of the top 15 midfielders in the competition this season according to the ranked [CP + CL + In50] system are aged 25 or under.

As a result, the output here describes those who have been dominant on the inside and outside respectively, forecasting that dominance will continue into the future as well.

High draftees L.Ashcroft and S.Lalor head the ranks of new talent to be found.

Interestingly, E.Tsatas from the previous list also gains a +3 here. H.Reid, positioned away from midfield during the first half of the year, fails to make a showing. Fellow Eagles E.Hewett, and perhaps to some surprise T.Brockman, do make an appearance.



3. Looking for Opportunity

Taking the data of Yeo in 2017 and giving it to an AI as a template to build a model around, to identify similar players waiting for a greater midfield opportunity.


And now we find H.Reid – who will without question get more time in the midfield if he can maintain his conditioning off the field. Reflective of the nature of the season overall, the players listed here as having potential for rapid development are typically much younger than in previous years, with all the primary candidates aged 22 or younger. Eagle C.Hall makes the list.

To emphasise the general inexperience of this list, only D.Moore of Hawthorn, listed as a secondary candidate due to his smaller physical size possibly limiting his potential to impact the midfield, has played more than 50 games with 122.



4. Yeo 2014 – Early Identification

Taking the data of Yeo in 2014, and of other players prior to their initial breakout seasons – to forecast the next generation of stars under development. The downside with this model output is it generally tends to repeat what has already been described earlier in addition to having a list that is overly long.


43 players listed, 4 from West Coast (H.Reid, E.Hewett, T.Brockman, B.Hough).

Hawthorn leads the competition with 5 listings, Carlton the only club without a representative – indeed, Carlton have not had a player here since S.Walsh in 2021 – great job with that pick decision again Eagles…



5. Stoppage Potential Starting in Defence

The Stoppage Potential model used last year has been discarded, as its outputs weren’t really that useful (repeating those already mentioned in other models interspersed with players that turn out more likely to be delisted rather than excel.

With more data (and more time to interrogate that data), an alternative model pathway was identified – accumulators that start behind play and then transition into the midfield as they mature. Looking retrospectively, this model identifies the following players long before they were entrenched in the midfield: J.Dawson, W.Day (2021); H.Young, E.Richards, N.Daicos (2022); H.Sheezel (2023); N.Wanganeen-Milera (2024).


The Lions appear well-placed to maintain their ascendancy in the middle into the future according to this model.



6. Scheduled for Take-off

In this instance, the AI was given the dataset and tasked to identify which midfielders could be expected to improve the most in the following year. This relatively simple model started out as a means of validating and training some of the aforementioned models above, but seeing the way it has picked up on players, I’ll put its output here also.

In 2024, these players were identified:



Now it has these players flagged for 2026:


Naz and Kosi are almost to be expected, J.Ward may be of surprise to some though.



7. Expanding the horizon

I have long been of the opinion that there are several players out there in the wilderness, plying their trade in the state leagues who could perform well at the top level if granted an opportunity. The success of two players in particular this season, N.Long (Collingwood) and T.McCarthy (West Coast), has only furthered this belief.

With go-home to WA options very thin amongst the AFL cohort (for example the 43 players identified above in the early identification model – just 7 are from WA: 3 are already at the club, 2 are at Fremantle, and the remaining 2 just re-signed with their respective interstate clubs), combined with winning just 11 games in 4 years, the challenge in pitching the club over rivals when it comes to recruitment targets is currently massive – indeed, second-tier players that have been overlooked elsewhere may be where it is forced to go should other avenues prove unsuccessful.

Unfortunately, trying to get decent statistics to analyse players at this level of competition has been a black box – until now. Thanks to Wheelo Ratings we actually have good statistical coverage from season 2024 onwards that can be used as a dataset for interrogation.


So, what is it about Ned Long? 195cm and able to run a 6:05 2km in his draft year – attributes that recruiters typically fall over themselves for. Taken by Hawthorn in the 2021 rookie draft, but was unable to prove a point of difference from other big aerobic utilities/midfielders that the Hawks were stocking up on (W.Day, H.Hustwaite, C.Nash, J.Weddle, F.Maginness, C.Mackenzie) and was delisted after two seasons and 5 games. Went back to Collingwood VFL and smashed it as an onball player, prompting Collingwood AFL to take him in the mid-season draft of that same year. Provided with opportunity due to the injuries to J.de Goey and T.Mitchell, he has been a key component in how the Magpies have revitalised this year after missing finals altogether in 2024.

Collingwood don’t excel at clearances, contested possessions, or turnover ball – but they are number one in the competition for pressure, tackling and intercepts. And N.Long is the tip of that spear. He leads the club for both tackling and pressure – ranking inside the top 10 of both statistics across the entire competition. At his size, only J.Dunkley, W.Setterfield and A.Davies are producing comparable figures.

His ability to serve the block-and-peel role around stoppage, being the first receiver to facilitate 1-2s for N.Daicos, is fundamental to the Magpie’s offensive output.

In 2025, when N.Long has had over 20 disposals, Collingwood are 10-1 (with the sole loss being the Round 23 match against Adelaide where they had +34 inside 50s and somehow failed to win).

Conversely, when N.Long has had 20 or less disposals, Collingwood are 7-6.


With that lengthy introduction out of the way, does our second-tier dataset have much to say about finding another Ned Long-type, working away in relative obscurity?

Given the limitations (just 2 years of data), two things become very apparent when cross-referencing this set:
  • almost every player with similar performance, size (188+cm) and age (25 or younger) is already on an AFL list, or has a previous affiliation with one.
  • The younger a player is when they appear on output lists appears to correlate with being able to translate performance to AFL.


Now onto T.McCarthy. The mid-season draft pick has been a revelation – he leads West Coast in disposals and metres gained per match and has arguably been the club’s best player in the second half of the year. His ability to take play on, make good decisions and execute well appears ready-made for the direction that AFL football is heading.

What’s better than one T.McCarthy? Finding a second one of course.

For Richmond VFL in 2025, T.McCarthy exhibited a combination of accumulation at very high efficiency, whilst maintaining a considerable rate of contested possessions. When we use this as a rule, we get the following output:


Once again, most of the players identified are already affiliated with AFL clubs with a few exceptions.




Targets 2025

So, what are the best options in the data this year? Once again, maintaining a modicum of reality (N.Daicos and M.Rowell for example are completely unrealistic, and similarly players with contracts beyond next year have been excluded as well – removing Western Australian talent like Ch.Warner, Co.Warner, A.Sheldrick, D.Curtin, D.Jones, T.Rivers, H.Boxshall and N.Erasmus from our list), what are some of the other opportunities out there to improve our fortunes in the midfield that are potentially workable?

If we take our identified shortlists of talent, we still find several candidates as possible targets:



Cameron Mackenzie (Hawthorn)
188cm, 84kg, 21/01/2004 (21 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2026

Features in almost all the above models described. A complete player on both inside and outside, he was the only player that featured in both of the second-tier talent models as well.

The no.7 pick in the 2022 draft, he has endured an interrupted 2025, fracturing his hand mid-season and having hamstring problems after his return. Listed as an emergency for the Hawks’ Semi Final win over Adelaide, he was best on ground a couple of days later in the VFL Preliminary Final in a losing effort for Box Hill against Footscray.

He is simply too good a player to not be playing at the highest level. Hawthorn are looking to bring in Z.Merrett from Essendon, which will only further increase the competition there for midfield spots. Reports earlier in the year of C.Mackenzie considering his options have been hosed down by the Hawks, but that has not stopped St Kilda from declaring their interest in pursuing him (he was a previous NGA there that they couldn’t get through the draft).

If the club wants to chase quality, here would be a good starting point.



Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
193cm, 89kg, 18/03/2002 (23 years old)
State: QLD, Contract: 2026

An ever-present in these lists from previous years, A.Davies is noted this year in the “Ned Long” model of second-tier potential.

Didn’t get an AFL start this year until the last week of July, but featured in every match thereafter.

Earlier in the season was widely reported as “keen” to move due to lack of opportunity in the senior team, with several clubs appearing to be circling for his signature, including Collingwood and Geelong who chased hard for him last year.

The combination of a lack of major offers from elsewhere and recent selection in the senior team as a starting midfielder now seems likely to keep him at the Suns.

West Coast should have been all over this earlier in the year when the opportunity to potentially turn his head was there – perhaps they could still throw in a Hail Mary offer, but it looks like the horse has already bolted on this one.



Marcus Windhager (St Kilda)
185cm, 85kg, 16/05/2003 (22 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2025

Another from previous years – M.Windhager has had a contract in front of him all year from St Kilda that remains unsigned three weeks after the club’s season ended. Naturally, this has resulted in a lot of speculation regarding his whereabouts next year.

When your housemate (N.Wanganeen-Milera), at the same age and at the same employer gets paid more than four times what you are being offered, it can cause some frustration.

North Melbourne jumped in and offered twice what St Kilda had put forward, in terms of both salary and years. Melbourne, Essendon, Bulldogs and West Coast have also been linked as having an interest.

With St Kilda now upping their offer to match the number of years coming from the Kangaroos, it may just be a ploy to squeeze as much from the Saints as he can before recommitting.

L.Ryan has announced his intent to move to St Kilda despite being contracted next year, the Eagles could find themselves well-placed for a player swap that is beneficial for both parties if they move quickly on the current situation.



Henry Hustwaite (Hawthorn)
195cm, 86kg, 20/07/2004 (21 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2026

“Desperate” to get out if you believe media reports over the past few weeks.

Down the midfield pecking order at Hawthorn, H.Hustwaite has played just 10 senior matches in three years – with six of those impacted by substitution. His VFL form is imperious, from 17 matches this year has has averaged 29.4 disposals, 17.9 contested possessions, 9.5 clearances and 5.4 tackles per game, earning a place in the 2025 VFL Team of the Year.

Essendon are considering their interest, particularly should the trade of Z.Merrett to Hawthorn occur with H.Hustwaite a possible component of that. Carlton have been linked in the media, but they have publicly denied any interest.

The biggest midfield bull on the market – if West Coast have any genuine intent on building a midfield that can compete for contested possession, they should be all over this in a very aggressive way.




Elijah Tsatas (Essendon)
187cm, 82kg, 18/10/2004 (20 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2026

Scored above +3.0 on the AI Predicted Improvement model. Has arguably struggled to have the same impact at AFL to level compared to VFL, but injury (broken hand, hamstring in 2025) and questionable coaching have had their impact. Somehow it seems everyone has forgotten that the no.5 pick from 2022 is still only 20 years old and has barely been given a chance at the Bombers to show his potential (he has played just two senior matches with more than 65% time on ground in the past two years).

Form at VFL level this season speaks for itself: 34.1 disposals, 15.1 contested possessions, 10.4 clearances, 4.9 score involvements, 4.9 inside 50s, 4.5 tackles on average per game from his 7 matches played.

Unverified reports circulating that Collingwood, Richmond and the two SA teams are tracking his availability. With Z.Merrett potentially on the way out, Essendon may now reassess their appetite for letting him go – the club needs to act now before this opportunity passes.



Will Phillips (North Melbourne)
181cm, 82kg, 22/05/2002 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2025

One of the most polarising players in the competition when it comes to supporter opinion. For a player that appears to be available for very little value, the models suggest there would be something to work with here. Infamously selected at pick no.3 in 2020, what is forgotten is that pre-draft opinions were near-unanimous in that he would be selected inside the top 5. Those expectations have obviously not been realised, and a combination of injury, glandular fever and complete loss of favour with the coaches have brought upon the current situation.

From 12 VFL matches this year, he averaged respectable totals of 23.8 disposals, 11.2 contested possessions, 6.2 clearances and 9.7 tackles per game. Has played just 5 matches with over 70% time on ground at senior level in the past two years.

I think one of the things that have been lost in the discussion of W.Phillips is that he is a L.Neale type of midfielder – stoppage extractor with excellent hands, tackling and two-way coverage, but lacks the physical size to be imposing at the top level. L.Neale has benefitted from the protection from teammates who could enforce their physicality around contests: N.Fyfe, D.Mundy (Fremantle), M.Robinson, J.Berry, J.Dunkley (Brisbane). North Melbourne only have a single midfielder over 185cm on their list in L.Davies-Uniacke, and he is certainly not a defensive presence. It’s a further indictment on North’s recruitment and adds weight to the argument that a change in environment may be what W.Phillips needs to realise that pre-draft potential.

North have not yet offered a new contract and current expectations are that he will be delisted should no offers come in from any rivals before the draft.

This is effectively a free swing – the cost would be negligible, and at the very least his personality and leadership would be exceptionally valuable to the WAFL program. If it were to work out for the senior team then the club would be laughing.



Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
185cm, 85kg, 30/06/2001 (24 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025

Every year, here we are yet again.

Completely frozen out at Brisbane, he can’t even make the emergencies now despite injury impacting the Lions’ midfield. His form at VFL has continued to be very good, averaging 26.1 disposals, 13.3 contested possessions, 6.3 clearances and 6.7 tackles per game from his 15 appearances and has been named in the VFL Team of the Year for 2025.

After their elimination to Box Hill in the VFL, the Lions players gave D.Robertson an applause and had him lead the team off the field – a sure sign that he has played his last game for the club.

If he doesn’t request a trade he will be delisted. West Coast should wait for that and take him in the Pre-Season Draft. Similar to W.Phillips, at minimum he would provide valuable leadership to the WAFL team. To be honest though, despite not being near Brisbane’s best team, he would still walk into West Coast’s best 22 – that’s the reality of where things are at.



Harry Scott (Richmond VFL)
191cm, 85kg, 24/01/2005 (20 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: None

He has the highest ceiling of all current players who have been overlooked by the draft.

Is noticeable that he is the only candidate identified by the “Ned Long” second-tier model over the past two years that has not been on an AFL or Academy list. One of the leading contenders for this year’s VFL Fothergill-Round-Mitchell Medal for the best talent aged 24 or under.

Averaged 21.1 disposals and 8.5 contested possessions per game for Richmond VFL this season, being one of just 12 players to go above 20 and 8 for those statistics before the age of 21 – all of the other 11 are on AFL lists. Also has a strong basketball background, representing Vic Country in Under 16s.

Beyond that, what has turned heads is his movement. He still has pace for a player of his size and his GPS numbers are already comparable to AFL level. Could easily adapt to a D.Curtin style of wing, however his standout ability by hand suggests a future around stoppage beckons.

Richmond want him for their AFL team and will surely use a selection on him before the rookie draft. Last year’s young talent winner in the VFL (S.Davidson) was selected at pick 51 – in this draft where the depth of talent available appears to be lower, I do not foresee H.Scott lasting near as long.

In an ideal world, part of a compensation package would include the ability to pre-list a number of unaffiliated players from second-tier leagues that have previously been overlooked by the draft and that would cover H.Scott. Without that, a pick before 40 is likely to be required.



Angus Anderson (Sturt)
190cm, 90kg, 25/05/2003 (22 years old)
State: NSW, Contract: None

Angus “Bangers” Anderson is an interesting one.

Dominated local football in Sawtell, NSW and then relocated to board at his uncle’s at 15 after being accepted by Eastern Ranges in the Talent League. By the end of the year, Sydney came knocking with an offer to join their Academy program. He was named captain of the Academy team in his first season there and invited to the National Draft Combine. He was seen as the standout Academy prospect of the 2021 draft and was expected to be taken by the Swans.

Until he wasn’t.

After overlooking him, Sydney then offered to effectively make him an “unofficial” player, keeping him in the VFL Swans, and having him train with and be managed by the senior club, rather than the Academy. Special permission was even sought to allow him to play for the senior team in a preseason match against GWS in Albury – the only uncontracted player to feature that day.

His VFL performances continued to impress, his outings in the Talent League looked a level above and from four appearances in the U18 National Championships for the Allies, he was named among the bests on each occasion.

And then he fell off the face of the Earth. I’m not sure what happened, but after the Championships he doesn’t get invited to the National Draft Combine, gets overlooked in the draft again and is suddenly packing his bags to join Sturt in the SANFL.

We’re talking about a 190cm midfield bull, with good hands, who runs both ways, posted a 2km time of 6:14 a year earlier and lead the midfield for the Allies at the National Championships – something doesn’t add up there…

Anyway, his tutelage continued at Sturt, developing his outside game to make him a more complete player. A year in the reserves was followed by a year on the wing in the seniors. And this year, it has all come together. Playing on-ball for a dominant Double Blues team that has lost just the one game all year, A.Anderson has averaged 25.6 disposals, 4.1 clearances, 5.8 tackles, 6.5 inside 50s and a goal per game over past month, including finals.

His form has been recognised in being named in the SANFL Team of the Year for 2025.

He has too much talent to not be playing AFL.



Donovan Toohey (Coburg)
185cm, 84kg, 04/2000 (25 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: None

The only player identified in our “T.McCarthy” model that has not had any current or previous affiliation with an AFL club in either of the past two years. He is also arguably the best kick that exists outside of the AFL.

A relative latecomer due to his prior split commitments with cricket – representing Vic Metro U19s as a wicketkeeper – and only made the decision to start fully pursuing football in 2022.

Consequently, won Fitzroy’s (with whom he has strong family ties) best and fairest in 2023, and in 2024 received the call-up to go from amateur to VFL with Coburg.

A midfielder at Fitzroy, he was moved into defence at the Burgers to make full use of his elite disposal on the rebound and he hasn’t looked back since.

In 2025 he was the only player among the second-tier competitions to average over 20 kicks per game and maintain a disposal efficiency above 75%. He led the VFL in rebounds per game (8.5), in addition to averaging 30.0 disposals and 5.6 contested possessions each game. Named in the VFL Team of the Year for 2025.

The other thing about D.Toohey is that he appears to be a player that steps up to the level that he is exposed to. He made the jump from ammos to VFL without issue. Two years in succession he has been Coburg’s best afield in clashes against the National Academy side. His best performances this season have been against opponents that are loaded with AFL-listed players. With his ability to accumulate possession and execute quickly and to advantage by foot he is made for the way that AFL is now being played.



Cooper Craig-Peters (Footscray VFL)
180cm, 76kg, 10/11/2001 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: None

Also identified on the “T.McCarthy” model, C.Craig-Peters is a former Bulldogs NGA who was overlooked at the draft but has continued to impress at Footscray VFL, where he is vice-captain and reigning best and fairest winner.

Often shunted between roles on-ball, wing and up forward due to the stacked ranks of the Bulldogs’ midfield, CCP has still averaged 22.9 disposals, 12.5 contested possessions, 6.9 clearances, 7.1 tackles and 4.7 score involvements per game – with a disposal efficiency of 77%. It was enough to see him named in the VFL Team of the Year for 2025.

Driven and focussed, in addition to playing for Footscray VFL, he works full time as a stonemason and is completing a Bachelor of Criminology. His favourite player growing up was Ben Cousins.

A player who is hard at the contest, has explosive pace, is defensively accountable and uses the ball very well – what is not to like about that? The only mark against him is his diminutive size – which hasn’t been a factor at VFL level – and he has demonstrated that he is very capable of succeeding on the outside as wing or a forward that pushes up the ground.

He presents a potential array of attributes that are sorely lacking in the current West Coast AFL squad.




There is the list for 2025, hopefully some of them make their way to the club and improve it.
Click to expand...

Genuinely, do you ever try to get this stuff to the club?

I'd confidently wager it's better work than our actual recruiters do.
 

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UnidentifiedPunch said:
Loved reading this Dylan. Hope the club has a team looking at the numbers like you have and are using all the modern tools at our disposal to crunch large data sets and build predictive models like you have. It’s not an exact science but should be part of the core analysis process. Feels like moneyball for 2025.
Click to expand...
I daresay the club is using a lot of data to do exactly this.

It was one of Pyke's big things he wanted to bring into the club, which saw a number of long-serving recruiters get moved on for more data-driven people.
 
bzparkes said:
I daresay the club is using a lot of data to do exactly this.

It was one of Pyke's big things he wanted to bring into the club, which saw a number of long-serving recruiters get moved on for more data-driven people.
Click to expand...

How true is this, though?

We did hire one analytics type guy, but that seems to be the extent of it.
 
OOh yeah. Come on down, Deven Robertson.
 

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www.westcoasteagles.com.au

Eagles swoop on recruiting experts

Experienced recruiter Adam Shepard and data analyst Damon Poole have joined West Coast
www.westcoasteagles.com.au www.westcoasteagles.com.au

Added Adam Shepard (ex Collingwood) and Damon Poole (ex Carlton)

Poole had previously worked with Champion Data so is the analytics guy we added to our existing analysts

“Damon has a strong analytics background, a degree in mathematics and is also experienced in talent-spotting.

“He will support our experienced analytics performance staff Luke Hyde and Tyler King in player analysis plus talent and recruit identification.”
 
Keys said:
www.westcoasteagles.com.au

Eagles swoop on recruiting experts

Experienced recruiter Adam Shepard and data analyst Damon Poole have joined West Coast
www.westcoasteagles.com.au www.westcoasteagles.com.au

Added Adam Shepard (ex Collingwood) and Damon Poole (ex Carlton)

Poole had previously worked with Champion Data so is the analytics guy we added to our existing analysts

“Damon has a strong analytics background, a degree in mathematics and is also experienced in talent-spotting.

“He will support our experienced analytics performance staff Luke Hyde and Tyler King in player analysis plus talent and recruit identification.”
Click to expand...
Will be interesting to see there input given they were hired after the last draft.
  • Luke has been with us since 2007 working his way up to Performance Analysis Manager. Degree in Computer and Mathmatical Science
  • Tyler joined as a Sports Science Intern in 2009, then moving into the Analysis space.
AMAZING WORK Dylan82
 

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Analysis Using Data to Identify Midfield Targets

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