Valuing Beams.

[PIEWITHSAUCE]

As a general rule, I think picks are overrated and established stars are correspondingly underrated.


If I was chief recruiter, I'd regularly trade the promise of draft picks for the reality of known commodities.

The Pies need a player to replace Beams' known output, I am pleased we want more than the unpromised hope that 5 and 25 may or may not deliver down the track.

.

I agree

 

[Rustin Cohle]

Yagmoor, even if he is delisted.

Yagmoor is untouchable.

 

[BillyElliott#19]

Agree on both picks are over rated and that Beams is not worth pick 5 and Aish/Mayes/Reddan ext. But he is better than pick 5 and Brisbanes 2nd tier of players. I have a a feeling we might get pick 5, their third round pick and some useless player like Lester

I think all clubs and supporters overrate their own players to a degree as we see them play regularly and form emotional attachments to them.
I also agree established quality players are worth so much more than draft picks no matter how high.
Each draft pick is a gamble, look at Gumbleton, Hansen, Masten, Watts, Scully, Trengrove and Xavier Ellis. All top 3 picks vs the likes of Beams #29, A Swallow #43, Swan #56, Fyfe #20, Gunston #29 and my personal Fav Langdon #65. = a top 5 pick is no guarantee of a star player.

Therefore, I would take Redden or Hanley and pick #25 for Beams.
On trade pick #25 for Greenwood and essentially we are getting Greenwood and call it Redden for Beams.

Out: Beams, Harry L
In: Greenwood, Redden, Varcoe
Draft #9 Moore, #30, #48, #67 Hine special , #85
Don't forget we essentially get Freeman as a new recruit this year as well....fingers crossed.

Best 22 round 1
FB: Toovey, Brown, Goldsack
HB: Langdon, Frost, Williams
C: Varcoe, Redden, Sidey
HF: Broomy, Cloke, Swan
FF: Elliott, Reid, White
R: Witts, Pendles, Greenwood
Int: Adams, BenKen, Fasolo, Seesdman
Emg from: Freeman, Sinclair, Grundy, Thomas, Dwyer, Keefe, Karnezis, Moore, Blair

Lot's of depth, midfield rotations and big man flexability.
Bring on Top 4

 

[partypie]

Jack Crisp

Nahhh way too high - Mitchell Golby Beent Moloney Andrew Raines - there, that sounds just about right in a like for like trade...

 

[partypie]

I think all clubs and supporters overrate their own players to a degree as we see them play regularly and form emotional attachments to them.

I'll happily stand guilty as charged on that front, as long the AA selectors, umpires, opposition coaches, commentators and, not least of all, Caro stand with me...

 

[Unknown Identity]

Beams for Golby, Crisp, Lisle and Lester.
VFL flag here we come!

 

[UpTheMags]

ill take Aish and pick 5.... any day

 

[domin8tors]

the last trade of similar value was probably Judd, and Carlton gave up. if picks 3, 20 and Josh Kennedy. granted that Judd was better then beams. but beams is also younger.

so I really don't think 5 and 25 will cut it. it's probably not even close tbh. I think even if it was #5 and Aish would still be a win for Brisbane

 

[Knightmare]

If Griffen is worth 4 and 7, what is Beams worth?

No pick in this draft is worth Beams to Collingwood. That does not mean a Petracca, Brayshaw, Heeney or someone most won't have heard of does not become better than Beams with time, but if you go through any of the picks historically, not even pick 1 historically is as good as Beams.

Griffen won't attract picks 4 and 7 as is being speculated and that specific deal won't go down. Probably one of those picks and a depth tall to WBD happens and given Griffen's age and only really having that one dominant season (2013) when he could have been considered among the best mids in the competition. From 2008, and more so 2010 he has been terrific but more a probably other than 2013 more a top 50 or in the last four seasons top 40 player in the competition rather than a top few player.

Beams other than 2013 when he mostly missed time with injury he actually has outperformed Griffen and has better career averages in all the major statistical categories per game - disposals, marks, goals, tackles, clearances, contested ball, uncontested ball. That and Beams is four years Griffen's junior (Griffen born in 1986 and Beams in 1990). Given Beams is requesting a trade you'd take picks 4 and 7 just to get him moved on, but if that wasn't the case and Beams was happy at Collingwood I would retain Beams in favour of moving him for those picks given he is a guy producing now and very possibly having a better career than the eventual guys picked at 4/7.

The possible selections at 4 would be McCartin/Wright/Lever. One of the three would be available at that pick and be the eventual selection. McCartin is a poor mans Fevola, Wright a poor mans Tom Lynch, Lever not unlike Tom Harley.
At 7 in our situation we likely would look at Weller/Pickett/Laverde, and likely all three are available. Weller is not unlike Z.Merrett or a less good Aish, Pickett is L.Jetta without as penetrating a kick and Laverde a more evasive but less big bodied Crameri for those who want a feel for the types of guys who would be available at those selections.

At 4 the pick would be a tall. With talls you have to keep in mind they don't usually develop themselves into best 22 quality players before season 3/4 or at least before that point their usefulness is generally beyond depth relatively limited. Who would they pass by from a best 22 perspective? McCartin isn't passing Cloke or Reid by before season four. Neither would Wright and as a partial ruckman he wouldn't pass by Grundy or Witts either before season four. Lever down back before season three it's hard to see him passing Keeffe/Brown/Frost by down back.

At 7 with those less tall guys the impact is more immediate and useful. They are all guys where they could as required play season one, maybe of those Weller could establish himself as a regular, the others would be hoping during season two to establish themselves as regulars and till around season three or four to become impactful players.

Beams on the other hand is a 650 disposal, 120 clearance, 100 tackle, 25 goal a year midfielder in his prime today, or that would be the projection going forward given he far exceeded these numbers in 2012 and was tracking around these numbers this year except for missing a three games. With all the experience walking out the door and given Beams has another 6+ seasons of strong production along these lines ahead of him assuming no major injury hickups along the way he is at that formline of the greater usefulness to us.

 

[mike123]

What's the point of the pole if mainly Collingwood supporter are voting.

 

[dickballsack]

No pick in this draft is worth Beams to Collingwood. That does not mean a Petracca, Brayshaw, Heeney or someone most won't have heard of does not become better than Beams with time, but if you go through any of the picks historically, not even pick 1 historically is as good as Beams.

Griffen won't attract picks 4 and 7 as is being speculated and that specific deal won't go down. Probably one of those picks and a depth tall to WBD happens and given Griffen's age and only really having that one dominant season (2013) when he could have been considered among the best mids in the competition. From 2008, and more so 2010 he has been terrific but more a probably other than 2013 more a top 50 or in the last four seasons top 40 player in the competition rather than a top few player.

Beams other than 2013 when he mostly missed time with injury he actually has outperformed Griffen and has better career averages in all the major statistical categories per game - disposals, marks, goals, tackles, clearances, contested ball, uncontested ball. That and Beams is four years Griffen's junior (Griffen born in 1986 and Beams in 1990). Given Beams is requesting a trade you'd take picks 4 and 7 just to get him moved on, but if that wasn't the case and Beams was happy at Collingwood I would retain Beams in favour of moving him for those picks given he is a guy producing now and very possibly having a better career than the eventual guys picked at 4/7.

The possible selections at 4 would be McCartin/Wright/Lever. One of the three would be available at that pick and be the eventual selection. McCartin is a poor mans Fevola, Wright a poor mans Tom Lynch, Lever not unlike Tom Harley.
At 7 in our situation we likely would look at Weller/Pickett/Laverde, and likely all three are available. Weller is not unlike Z.Merrett or a less good Aish, Pickett is L.Jetta without as penetrating a kick and Laverde a more evasive but less big bodied Crameri for those who want a feel for the types of guys who would be available at those selections.

At 4 the pick would be a tall. With talls you have to keep in mind they don't usually develop themselves into best 22 quality players before season 3/4 or at least before that point their usefulness is generally beyond depth relatively limited. Who would they pass by from a best 22 perspective? McCartin isn't passing Cloke or Reid by before season four. Neither would Wright and as a partial ruckman he wouldn't pass by Grundy or Witts either before season four. Lever down back before season three it's hard to see him passing Keeffe/Brown/Frost by down back.

At 7 with those less tall guys the impact is more immediate and useful. They are all guys where they could as required play season one, maybe of those Weller could establish himself as a regular, the others would be hoping during season two to establish themselves as regulars and till around season three or four to become impactful players.

Beams on the other hand is a 650 disposal, 120 clearance, 100 tackle, 25 goal a year midfielder in his prime today, or that would be the projection going forward given he far exceeded these numbers in 2012 and was tracking around these numbers this year except for missing a three games. With all the experience walking out the door and given Beams has another 6+ seasons of strong production along these lines ahead of him assuming no major injury hickups along the way he is at that formline of the greater usefulness to us.

Insightful post as usual nighter, I reckon the pies are asking Brisbane ( and I dare say the pies are too) to find a player they can trade for pick 5 and a merret or similar and on trade him to us along with pick 25. Most people are thinking we want to keep 5 but as you say it's all falls and I'm not sure the future planning is to have another 18 yo key position player.

 

[Knightmare]

Insightful post as usual nighter, I reckon the pies are asking Brisbane ( and I dare say the pies are too) to find a player they can trade for pick 5 and a merret or similar and on trade him to us along with pick 25. Most people are thinking we want to keep 5 but as you say it's all falls and I'm not sure the future planning is to have another 18 yo key position player.

Negotiations re. Beams to Brisbane have finished and Collingwood will be moving onto other trades next week. First priority probably Greenwood if that can be manufacturer then from there Varcoe (though it likely will be an either/or choice).

Unless Beams sends out a statement that he will sit out the season or some club put forward an offer we can't refuse Beams will remain for at least another season.

I imagine Collingwood now going into negotations and saying we're done but if you feel compelled to give us a serious offer this week it's now two of: Hanley, Rockliff, Redden, Rich, Aish and Mayes we are willing to re-assess.

Any package including pick 5 on our end I imagine would be off the table and that probably also includes pick 5 and one even if Brisbane add one of their better players to that deal.

Brisbane in reality won't reassess or add any good young players into that deal because they want to prove a point to their existing players that they're loyal to them given what happened last year with all the homesick young fellas but Collingwood are probably fine by that and happy to retain Beams with the idea to keep him this year and extend him one further season and then either sign him on for a further season until he is free agency eligible or trade him then.

Maybe this week a GWS or GC put forward a monster offer that far exceeds what Brisbane offered. Perhaps then if we view it as a fair trade and Beams agrees maybe that type of trades goes down but again I would even class that scenario as against the odds.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Yagmoor is untouchable.

Only to footballs

 

[motr]

No pick in this draft is worth Beams to Collingwood. That does not mean a Petracca, Brayshaw, Heeney or someone most won't have heard of does not become better than Beams with time, but if you go through any of the picks historically, not even pick 1 historically is as good as Beams.

Griffen won't attract picks 4 and 7 as is being speculated and that specific deal won't go down. Probably one of those picks and a depth tall to WBD happens and given Griffen's age and only really having that one dominant season (2013) when he could have been considered among the best mids in the competition. From 2008, and more so 2010 he has been terrific but more a probably other than 2013 more a top 50 or in the last four seasons top 40 player in the competition rather than a top few player.

Beams other than 2013 when he mostly missed time with injury he actually has outperformed Griffen and has better career averages in all the major statistical categories per game - disposals, marks, goals, tackles, clearances, contested ball, uncontested ball. That and Beams is four years Griffen's junior (Griffen born in 1986 and Beams in 1990). Given Beams is requesting a trade you'd take picks 4 and 7 just to get him moved on, but if that wasn't the case and Beams was happy at Collingwood I would retain Beams in favour of moving him for those picks given he is a guy producing now and very possibly having a better career than the eventual guys picked at 4/7.

The possible selections at 4 would be McCartin/Wright/Lever. One of the three would be available at that pick and be the eventual selection. McCartin is a poor mans Fevola, Wright a poor mans Tom Lynch, Lever not unlike Tom Harley.
At 7 in our situation we likely would look at Weller/Pickett/Laverde, and likely all three are available. Weller is not unlike Z.Merrett or a less good Aish, Pickett is L.Jetta without as penetrating a kick and Laverde a more evasive but less big bodied Crameri for those who want a feel for the types of guys who would be available at those selections.

At 4 the pick would be a tall. With talls you have to keep in mind they don't usually develop themselves into best 22 quality players before season 3/4 or at least before that point their usefulness is generally beyond depth relatively limited. Who would they pass by from a best 22 perspective? McCartin isn't passing Cloke or Reid by before season four. Neither would Wright and as a partial ruckman he wouldn't pass by Grundy or Witts either before season four. Lever down back before season three it's hard to see him passing Keeffe/Brown/Frost by down back.

At 7 with those less tall guys the impact is more immediate and useful. They are all guys where they could as required play season one, maybe of those Weller could establish himself as a regular, the others would be hoping during season two to establish themselves as regulars and till around season three or four to become impactful players.

Beams on the other hand is a 650 disposal, 120 clearance, 100 tackle, 25 goal a year midfielder in his prime today, or that would be the projection going forward given he far exceeded these numbers in 2012 and was tracking around these numbers this year except for missing a three games. With all the experience walking out the door and given Beams has another 6+ seasons of strong production along these lines ahead of him assuming no major injury hickups along the way he is at that formline of the greater usefulness to us.

I agree, the probability of getting a player as good as Beams with even the top pick is probably about 70%, and even then we're looking at several seasons plus down the track. In a normal draft 4 and 7 would be reasonable compensation. Unfortunately this draft is missing 2 of the top 6 draftees, significantly devaluing these two picks in a draft that doesn't appear to have too many clear cut superior draftees.

Given Griffen's age, I'd be shocked if GWS was prepared to pay 4 and 7. High draft picks may not be as critical to GWS, given they're not going to be able to keep all the high draft picks they've got and stay under the salary cap, but they are valuable to other clubs. In my opinion a younger player like Beams will be able to contribute immediately and is much more likely to be in his prime when GWS starts challenging for premierships.

In summary 4 and 7 is way over for Griffen, but about right for Beams who is younger, higher calibre player. I wouldn't want Beams for 4 and 7, but given the current circumstances I wouldn't say no.

 

[Vdubs]

As a Cat fan, I rate Beams highly.
FWIW, Mike S had Beams at 33 in his top 50, no spot for Griffen this year.
Griffen is past his best, but still excellent, Beams is better.

 

[mike123]

As a Cat fan, I rate Beams highly.
FWIW, Mike S had Beams at 33 in his top 50, no spot for Griffen this year.
Griffen is past his best, but still excellent, Beams is better.

Nah, according to Damian Barrett Griffen's ability is much, much, much better than Beams.

 

[danielnajdek]

As a Cat fan, I rate Beams highly.
FWIW, Mike S had Beams at 33 in his top 50, no spot for Griffen this year.
Griffen is past his best, but still excellent, Beams is better.

Was Cyril first?

 

[Daunt]

Barretts off his ****en head hahahahahaha

** fu auto correct [emoji35]

 

[DNine]

Griffen is not worth 4 and 7 no matter what they say, never spoken about as being in the elite list of midfielders. Very good player worth an early pick, but he's what 28? And gets a decent amount of soft tissue niggles

How can you say that? I have just went back into all the trade results for each year, and put simply, such a player doesn't get traded too often. If you go back to 2005 though, you have Josh Carr for 11, 27 & 45. Nathan Thompson for 10 & 26 and Tyson Steinglien for 12 & 28.

Those players are nothing compared to Griffen or Beams. Judd went to Carlton for Josh Kennedy, 3 & 20 for Judd and 46.

Top line players SHOULD be offered two first round picks. If a first round pick is a 50% chance of playing 200 games, and a gun like Griffen or Beams is a 90% chance to play 6 years for their new club like Judd has it would be fair to ask that.

Griffen is 28, but it is not too far fetch that he can't play until 32-33.

I am hoping that they do conclude Griffen is worth two 1st rounders, because in that case, Beams is worth 2 and a later pick as well. For Pies to accept 21 and 24 rather than continue to demand a player that was a first rounder, or another first round, was generous to get the deal done, and that Brisbane wanted to make sure we were screwed in the deal good and proper.

Have we thought that maybe with Christensen going to Brisbane, they don't have the cap space to fit Beams in as well? They wouldn't tell us, they would try to make it the Pies fault.