Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[footyfan1978]

Is there any evidence to suggest Putins position within Russia is more vulnerable?

Have read a few articles recently suggesting this but not sure if wishful thinking rather than anything real

Bombs closer to him would indicate there more dangerous waters to tread for him. But no real evidence it a major shift.

 

[Mobbs]

Is that the same person in both those videos? The person being interviewed has short hair and not a scratch on her? Considering how close she sat to the bomb when it went off, and even if she survived it, wouldn't she be in a more precarious state?

Isn't it amazing how the corrupt security forces of Russia "solve" this and the Daria Dugina case within hours yet the investigations of assassinations of any figures who oppose Putin go nowhere.....

Yep same person.

 

[Power Raid]

Putin has no moral standing.

Ukraine does.

No idea why you're being obtuse about this.

Because there is a difference between the people of crimea and the war machine of Russia.

If you want to win hearts and minds to retake through diplomacy, you’ll need the support of the people.

 

[Chief]

Because there is a difference between the people of crimea and the war machine of Russia.

And they can go back to Russia.

 

[wannabejack]

Because there is a difference between the people of crimea and the war machine of Russia.

If you want to win hearts and minds to retake through diplomacy, you’ll need the support of the people.

Ukraine can't win the hearts and minds of the Russian people in Russia, how do you suggest they win the hearts and minds of the Russian people in Crimea. Bear in mind that Crimea has been repopulated with Russians who think Crimea belongs to them.

 

[Kwality]

Nobody's offended. They're just pointing out that you're wrong.

or simply have a different point of view to your own.

 

[Power Raid]

Is there any evidence to suggest Putins position within Russia is more vulnerable?

Have read a few articles recently suggesting this but not sure if wishful thinking rather than anything real

I would suggest not

Putin will not hand the reigns over to anyone but in the case he did, it would be to a thug

Until Russia's economy collapses, he can continue to pay people to do his bidding. This is why I would shut down shipping channels and other supply routes.

 

[Kwality]

I’m not sure on what basis Russia will collapse

The nation is forecast to have good GDP growth, the sanctions aren’t working, china has commenced the program to produce their own silicon chips to mitigate reliance on the west.

Putin won’t be around forever but his replacement will be worse and by ruling with an iron fist, no break up will happen but rather see more of the same.

Very likely to be more under Xi's control ?

 

[Power Raid]

Very likely to be more under Xi's control ?

I'm thinking over the course of 20 years, eastern russia will be chinese one way or another. either through force or simply through economic interest (massive beautiful porphyry deposits) and the immigration of chinese to run these mines, followed by "security services".

 

[Mobbs]

or simply have a different point of view to your own.

A wrong one, yeah.

They're not tribes, they're nations. So just talk things that aren't wrong things, and you might give yourself a shot.

I mean, the sky's purple. It's just a different point of view to your own.

 

[Zidane98]

A wrong one, yeah.

They're not tribes, they're nations. So just talk things that aren't wrong things, and you might give yourself a shot.

I mean, the sky's purple. It's just a different point of view to your own.

I also heard the earth is flat.

 

[Kwality]

I'm thinking over the course of 20 years, eastern russia will be chinese one way or another. either through force or simply through economic interest (massive beautiful porphyry deposits) and the immigration of chinese to run these mines, followed by "security services".

This is certainly on the hit list:
The Convention of Peking or First Convention of Peking is an agreement comprising three distinct treaties concluded between the Qing dynasty of China and Great Britain, France, and the Russian Empire in 1860. In China, they are regarded as among the unequal treaties.

 

[Kwality]

A wrong one, yeah.

They're not tribes, they're nations. So just talk things that aren't wrong things, and you might give yourself a shot.

I mean, the sky's purple. It's just a different point of view to your ...

Yeh, tribes are an African thing. Same dance, different step.
Euro snobbery.

 

[Zidane98]

Yeh, tribes are an African thing. Same dance, different step.
Euro snobbery.

Russia - Ukraine is absolutely not a tribal dispute. They are two different countries from the same tribe.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Russia - Ukraine is absolutely not a tribal dispute. They are two different countries from the same tribe.

I think its more a sign of Kwality not really giving two flyings about whether one calls it a nation or a tribe or some other grouping. Sees it as one lot butchering another lot because of historical reasons that don't matter to him, and primary concern is to minimise loss of (Australian) life/ economic impact on Australians ie isolationist approach. Getting fixated on the tribe/ nation wording really is not the point.

Unfortunately such an approach gives Russia "equal validity" to Ukraine (because you - Kwality - don't actually give a shit as to whether there is an objective right or wrong in the fighting). I will dumb it down for you - invasion of soverign border = bad in the rules based order. It it isn't stopped (and yes, we can use economic and educational means to avoid loss of Australian life, that part I agree with) then aggressor states will continue to attack and invade.

 

[Visions]

I’m not sure on what basis Russia will collapse

The nation is forecast to have good GDP growth, the sanctions aren’t working, china has commenced the program to produce their own silicon chips to mitigate reliance on the west.

Putin won’t be around forever but his replacement will be worse and by ruling with an iron fist, no break up will happen but rather see more of the same.

Only the IMF is predicting a GDP growth (very small) this year. Everyone else including Russia is forecasting negative GDP. Not sure how that relates to good GDP growth in your books.

I'm thinking over the course of 20 years, eastern russia will be chinese one way or another. either through force or simply through economic interest (massive beautiful porphyry deposits) and the immigration of chinese to run these mines, followed by "security services".

So in one post Russia wont collapse. In the other Eastern Russia will be taken over by the Chinese. Is this what they call an each way bet?

 

[Visions]

There is rumour that police forces in the big towns are now being tapped for resources to replace tiring forces in the Donbas.

Whose going to fight the good fight at home then?

It's just like the rhetoric that the terrorist state is putting out about beefing up their forces around the Finnish border now that they are joining NATO, when in actual fact they have taken everyone away from there and reassigned them in Ukraine leaving no one to turn the lights out. Finnish troops could walk into Russia right now and there would be no resistance.

Talking about which, its official. NATO has its 31st member inducted today. Congratulations Mr Putin, you just doubled your NATO border you muppet.

 

[Visions]

Yep same person.

Still find it weird that she doesn't have a scratch on her when she was only metres from the bomb and you see how bog of a blast it was from the footage of the restaurant being ripped apart.

 

[Kwality]

I think its more a sign of Kwality not really giving two flyings about whether one calls it a nation or a tribe or some other grouping. Sees it as one lot butchering another lot because of historical reasons that don't matter to him, and primary concern is to minimise loss of (Australian) life/ economic impact on Australians ie isolationist approach. Getting fixated on the tribe/ nation wording really is not the point.

Unfortunately such an approach gives Russia "equal validity" to Ukraine (because you - Kwality - don't actually give a s**t as to whether there is an objective right or wrong in the fighting). I will dumb it down for you - invasion of soverign border = bad in the rules based order. It it isn't stopped (and yes, we can use economic and educational means to avoid loss of Australian life, that part I agree with) then aggressor states will continue to attack and invade.

I am not against giving support to Ukraine, just insist the Euros accept the responsibility to sort out their own back yard.
Yes, I'm influenced by the EU/EC use of trade barriers to punish those who dont bend to their view of the world.

IF there is a problem in our backyard, we are involved.

 

[Present Not Past]

Russia - Ukraine is absolutely not a tribal dispute. They are two different countries from the same tribe.

Russia and Ukraine were always different counties. Even when they were under the Union of the Soviet Republics they were treated like 2nd class citizens compared to Russians.
The Nazi's even tried to capitalise on these differences during the invasion of the USSR and befriend the Ukrainians, but Nazi's being Nazi's they just couldn't refrain from murder and enslavement of the population.

 

[Power Raid]

Only the IMF is predicting a GDP growth (very small) this year. Everyone else including Russia is forecasting negative GDP. Not sure how that relates to good GDP growth in your books.



So in one post Russia wont collapse. In the other Eastern Russia will be taken over by the Chinese. Is this what they call an each way bet?

not at all. I don't see oil and gas going out of fashion in the next 5 minutes and I don't see the west curtailing russia's shipping lanes and trade. Thus in the medium term russia's economy will be fine.



I also believe there are very few places in the world where one can get copper to support the renewable economy. South America will get increasingly harder for china, africa requires navigating the quad, philippines and indo will be out of bounds and that leaves iran, pakistan, afghanistan and russia.

Russia doesn't have the man power or the capabilities to mine these assets without china's help. Where this will lead to is a copper boom and mass immigration. Then security forces, followed by a democratic election. This will either happen or russia will try and use force only to be met with force.

This is a 20 year view and thus not only has a very different context but a different time frame.

 

[Crankyhawk]

I am not against giving support to Ukraine, just insist the Euros accept the responsibility to sort out their own back yard.
Yes, I'm influenced by the EU/EC use of trade barriers to punish those who dont bend to their view of the world.

IF there is a problem in our backyard, we are involved.

difficult if we (rest of world) leave the euros to it, they will slowly get run over by russia.

 

[Mobbs]

I am not against giving support to Ukraine, just insist the Euros accept the responsibility to sort out their own back yard.
Yes, I'm influenced by the EU/EC use of trade barriers to punish those who dont bend to their view of the world.

IF there is a problem in our backyard, we are involved.

If your concern is purely about the nefariousness of the EU/EC, then it's fine, and I might even agree with you. But then it creates a feeling that you are just looking for openings in a thread discussing an invading force attempting to systematically wipe out a neighbour for purposes of empire-building, acquiring wealth/resource or even just out of being massive ********s, into which to talk about how bad the EU and it's member states are. That's unfair on the actual victims of the actual topic.

And it's just not accurate to refer to this war as a tribal border squabble. This suggests that the combatants are tribes (which is factually incorrect), that it's a squabble (which massively downplays the magnitude of the invasion and suggests both are at fault) and leaves only the "border" element as kindah relevant. If you are using hyperbole (in this case, hypobole?) to express your disgust by rewriting the magnitude, then it would be more understable, however it leaves your motives somewhat questionable. Without a clear label that this is for artistic licence - and to what end, it's just a spit in the face of those who are dying.

I'd never refer to the Watts murders as a "family squabble".

 

[Mobbs]

From [SOTA]

After the murder of Vladlen Tatarsky, Vladimir Solovyov's team collects lists of Navalny's supporters.

The URALLIVE telegram channel, run by the team of propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, asked its subscribers to send them “information about the inhabitants of the Urals who supported the terrorist attack against Vladlen Tatarsky, as well as about local supporters of the terrorist Navalny's organizations.

“We need to protect our society from murderers and their sympathizers. We adhere to strict legal frameworks,” the authors of URALLIVE wrote.

Earlier, the same team suggested starting a case against the post of the Ural activist Yaroslav Shirshikov, who, according to Solovyov’s associates, allegedly “justified the terrorist attack” in his Telegram channel.

I'm just wondering if Khovanskiy is writing any new songs right now ... after all the trouble he got into commenting on the Nord-Ost event in a rap song. Might be a good time to go watch some TV instead, Yury!

. . . . .

Transport of Trepolov to Moscow, per [SOTA] :

View attachment 001.mp4

. . . . .

Still find it weird that she doesn't have a scratch on her when she was only metres from the bomb and you see how bog of a blast it was from the footage of the restaurant being ripped apart.

Could agree, though it was reported that she was injured, in fact hospitalised. And video outside the building shows somepeople with just a bung arm or leg, rather than entrails pouring out all over the footpath.

I'm also interested in early reports that she had 1) sat at the far end of the room after dropping off the gift, and 2) had messed with her phone just before the explosion. These don't match the videos, and I'm leaning towards the videos themselves being creatively edited to include the blast some minutes before it actually happened, for more tiktok views.

I reckon it's definitely the same girl, imo, but there's still a chance that there's body doubles, cgi, or even a completely staged previously recorded video.

 

[Mobbs]

Out in town on phone now, unsure how to link this TG post from BAZA:

The trial of Daria Trepova will be closed due to the secrecy of the investigation and the data of the accomplices. Journalists at the Basmanny Court were asked not to ask her questions.

Trepova is accused under two articles: on the act of terrorism and the illegal carrying of explosive devices.

UPD: Trepova was arrested for two months.