Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

This is the thread for discussing the War in Ukraine. Should you want to discuss the geopolitics, the history, or an interesting tangent, head over here:

Europe - Backdrop to the war in Ukraine

This is the thread for the geopolitics, history and framework around the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you want to discuss the events of the war, head over to this thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/war-in-ukraine-thread-4-thread-rules-updated.1376293/page-146

www.bigfooty.com

If a post isn't directly concerning the events of the war or starts to derail the thread, report the post to us and we'll move it over there.

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[Mobbs]

Noting that Ukraine have since confirmed that the list of prisoners which the RF claim were on the aircraft, is a legitimate list, and does not include names of prisoners which had already been exchanged.

 

[wannabejack]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/26/politics/senate-deal-shutdown-border/index.html

Senate negotiators have agreed to empower the US to significantly restrict illegal migrant crossings at the southern border, according to sources familiar with the matter, a move aimed at ending the migrant surge that has overrun federal authorities over the past several months.

The details provide a new window into high-profile negotiations that have been going on for months – as Senate leaders hold out hope they can attach the deal to aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as domestic and international crises loom. The plan would also put pressure on Republicans to decide whether to greenlight these new authorities or reject the plan as former President Donald Trump has urged the GOP to defeat anything short of what he calls a “perfect” bill.

But the push to release a deal comes as Trump has rallied Republicans to reject any immigration compromise as he campaigns against Biden’s handling of the border. But a number of top Senate Republicans, including Mitch McConnell, say that the issue must be dealt with now since Democrats are willing to approve tougher restrictions.

 

[Zidane98]

Putin admitting it's all about territory.

A sure sign of weakness. Russia simply cannot afford this needless war long term & Vlad is trying to end things quickly before Russia is crippled.

 

[darth_timon]

The word 'conscription' was floating around UK Twitter circles the other day, albeit due to a misinterpretation of what a general said. Still, in an election year, suddenly there's increased talk of raising a 'citizen army'. I suspect it's scaremongering from the Tories, and if any of these conflicts spill into WW3, it won't matter, because it almost certainly turns nuclear.

 

[Cap]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/26/politics/senate-deal-shutdown-border/index.html

Senate negotiators have agreed to empower the US to significantly restrict illegal migrant crossings at the southern border, according to sources familiar with the matter, a move aimed at ending the migrant surge that has overrun federal authorities over the past several months.

The details provide a new window into high-profile negotiations that have been going on for months – as Senate leaders hold out hope they can attach the deal to aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as domestic and international crises loom. The plan would also put pressure on Republicans to decide whether to greenlight these new authorities or reject the plan as former President Donald Trump has urged the GOP to defeat anything short of what he calls a “perfect” bill.

But the push to release a deal comes as Trump has rallied Republicans to reject any immigration compromise as he campaigns against Biden’s handling of the border. But a number of top Senate Republicans, including Mitch McConnell, say that the issue must be dealt with now since Democrats are willing to approve tougher restrictions.

I think Mitch can see what most non MAGA idiots can't see

Biden isn't exactly wonderful, but he'll beat Trump and the Democrats probably stay in power.

So do the deal that you know you can get done and gives you something to talk about and something to show for your time in charge.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Putin admitting it's all about territory.

A sure sign of weakness. Russia simply cannot afford this needless war long term & Vlad is trying to end things quickly before Russia is crippled.

Security guarantee? Does he mean the same sort of security guarantee as he gave Prigozhin?

 

[Zidane98]

Security guarantee? Does he mean the same sort of security guarantee as he gave Prigozhin?

Putin's word is second only to the Pope.

 

[PeterSalt]

Security guarantee? Does he mean the same sort of security guarantee as he gave Prigozhin?

Pretty much

Budapest Memorandum springs to mind. How about Minsk 1 or 2?

The russian - Ukrainian Friendship Treaty anyone?

There's probably others

 

[Rob R]

People keep missing what a Ukrainian win will look like.

Like Vietnam beating the US without winning a major battle, and with Afghanistan winning against the Soviet Union, without physically pushing the Soviet army out of Afghanistan.

The Russian army is in Ukraine, but if they aren't advancing, they're losing.

If Ukraine isn't going backwards, or falling apart, they are winning.

At some point, the cost in materials, and money, and men, and prestige, and sanctions, of keeping an army in a hostile country, becomes greater than the benefits they can get.

Russia was hoping to overwhelm them, fighting stops, hurrah, they win. But that didn't happen.

Then they tried to grind them back and wear them out until they couldn't fight anymore, hurrah, victory. But that didn't happen either.

Now they are just trying to outlast them, and the limits of Western willingness to support them, so Ukraine goes, we need to stop fighting, we will give you what you want. Hurrah, victory, sort of. But that isn't happening either.

Here is how Ukraine wins.

Russia says, this is what we want to end fighting. Ukraine says no.
Repeat.
Repeat.
This year, if necessary, next year, and the year after. No.

One day, Russia will ask, what do you want for the war to end?
And that's the day the negotiations that will end the war on Ukrainian terms will begin.

Who takes this or that town, who advances 100 m, or a km here or there doesn't matter anymore, and it will not matter for the remainder of the war.

On SM-X200 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Well said, it isn't just sanctions- Putins buddy to the east who encouraged the attack is increasingly taking advantage of Russia in trade deals and their state controlled media is starting to talk about their historic claims to Siberia again....

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Aussie in exile]

Putin's opponent vows to end war.

Boris Nadezhdin: Putin's would-be opponent vows to end Ukraine war

Boris Nadezhdin has gathered tens of thousands of signatures in his bid to stand for Russia's presidency.

www.bbc.com

 

[Visions]

Security guarantee? Does he mean the same sort of security guarantee as he gave Prigozhin?

Exactly. Russia has been lying or covering up everything throughout history. Not going to change now, especially when you have a leader who is looking to emulate a certain person from the late 1930’s.

And the notion he will not oppose Ukraine joining NATO means nothing. Its not up to him or his increasingly failing state whether they gain membership or not.

Putin's opponent vows to end war.

Boris Nadezhdin: Putin's would-be opponent vows to end Ukraine war

Boris Nadezhdin has gathered tens of thousands of signatures in his bid to stand for Russia's presidency.

www.bbc.com

He wont be allowed to run. Will be some minor fantasy infringement charge that will come his way excluding him from running.

 

[Sir_Loin]

I think Mitch can see what most non MAGA idiots can't see

Biden isn't exactly wonderful, but he'll beat Trump and the Democrats probably stay in power.

So do the deal that you know you can get done and gives you something to talk about and something to show for your time in charge.

Bidens problems are purely optics. Stack his performance in a first term presidency against Trumps and he blitzes him.

Democrats just can not get out of their own way on messaging. All they have to do is hammer away for the next nine months that the GOP want to tank the economy and won’t sort out the border. Watch them **** that up

 

[Cap]

Bidens problems are purely optics. Stack his performance in a first term presidency against Trumps and he blitzes him.

Democrats just can not get out of their own way on messaging. All they have to do is hammer away for the next nine months that the GOP want to tank the economy and won’t sort out the border. Watch them * that up

I posted this on the Adelaide Board which has more MAGA fans than California



I've always enjoyed his videos, this one interesting

 

[ibd77]

I posted this on the Adelaide Board which has more MAGA fans than California



I've always enjoyed his videos, this one interesting

Yep, this one was a good one especially how the immigration issue is being used as a political tool rather than actually providing any form of resolution. It's just a cheap method of winning votes from patriots without actually fixing the problem. However capitalism supported by the same patriots is built on cheap labour provided by these illegal immigrants. If you're serious about fixing illegal immigration then target the main reason for it. Cheap labour.

 

[wannabejack]

Jan. 8 2007 article.

Ukraine and NATO: Dynamics of the Relationship

Volodymyr Dubovyk, Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, and Director, Center for International Studies, Odesa National University, and Fulbright-Kennan Institute Research Scholar

www.wilsoncenter.org

Since Ukraine gained independence in 1991, its relationship with NATO has steadily deepened...

In 1994, Ukraine became the first country in the CIS to join the NATO Partnership for Peace program.

In 1997, Ukraine signed the Ukraine-NATO Charter, which expanded cooperation.

In 2002, an Action Plan was signed and relations continued. Ukraine indicated its intent to join NATO during Kuchma's presidency, but this statement was undermined by the president's mistakes in domestic policy...

...the prospects for Ukraine's membership have been hurt since the return of Viktor Yanukovych to the position of prime minister.

...80 percent of experts in Ukraine advocate membership in NATO. Common rationales include: escaping the Eurasian "gray zone" between established democracies and the stability of the Euro-Atlantic security system on the one hand, and autocratic and unstable space on the other...

...Dubovyk emphasized that NATO is the only viable security organization in Eurasia and in the Euro-Atlantic space, and the only option for Ukraine.

 

[Rayzorwire]

I don't think I ever stated NYT journo's are on putin's payroll. I did suggest they have a history of publishing narratives favourable to russia

Yes you did - and yes it is still the maddest thing I've read in a while, which is saying something!

Sorry, you're Hungarian

Not Hungarian, or Russian, or whatever else is convenient.

Can you explain why Hungary's foreign minister was in moscow a few weeks ago? Why orban is still singing putin's tune?

For the same reason I've already explained - it's very much in Hungary's long term interests not to burn their relationship with Russia the way much of the rest of Europe has.

Orban can either join the other EU countries in embracing policies which result in terminal economic decline and make the lives of ordinary Europeans worse year after year, or he can choose plan B.

Not a hard choice...perhaps especially when the more un-elected EU Council neo-liberal lemmings shriek at him, the more he seems to enjoy it.

 

[Rayzorwire]

Yes, the state media narratives, internet censorship, punishment or death of those who speak the truth about what Russia has been doing to Ukraine, both as a nation militarily and deliberate acts against civilians, have already been noted, so it's no surprise if many Russians can't see what is going on.

I just gave you examples of factual events which actually happened, its entirely your issue if you want to continue the conversation having utterly ignored them. That's not debate, just boring word slinging.

As I've said before, the West hands Russia its 'propaganda' on a plate, they really don't need to tweak much.

If you wish to discuss unrelated topics/conflicts, there's threads for most of these. We would probably agree on quite a bit re: Iraq, Palestine etc.

Well, that's certainly easier than acknowledging the truth of my base point - why would the average Russian (or anyone living in the Global South nations for that matter) buy the US/NATO narrative that Putin is the devil and Biden is an angel - even on Western media articles, let alone their own?

The civilian death count alone in the two conflicts says it all on that score in bold, black and white letters, 100ft tall for the whole world to see.

 

[Visions]

Orban can either join the other EU countries in embracing policies which result in terminal economic decline and make the lives of ordinary Europeans worse year after year, or he can choose plan B.

Load of crap. Orban and Hungary know full well that Russia cannot support them in any significant way economically going forward, when the Russian economy cant sustain itself.

He is just using his pro-Russia stance to blackmail the EU in providing billions of dollars in assistance to stop Hungary going down the drain.

If he was choosing plan B, he would have left the EU already, rather than beg for money.

 

[PeterSalt]

Yes you did - and yes it is still the maddest thing I've read in a while, which is saying something!

Where ..?

Please show me

Or are you incapable of comprehension?

So you're just a supporter of terrorists and dictors

 

[Mobbs]

In the east of Russia (Yakutia through to regions in the far east) there has been a suspicious downtime in messaging apps Telegram and Whatsapp. According to some articles, Roskomnadzor are complicit in the outages - the allegation goes that they are testing how to disable these apps throughout Russia in order to prevent dissenting views from being shared across the nation.

In Yakutia, for the fourth day, there has been no free access to WhatsApp and Telegram instant messengers, while the accounts of officials, including the head of the republic Aisen Nikolaev, are working without failures, local media write.

"Agency. News" notes that this is the longest blocking in the Russian region. The authorities explained the problems with the messengers as preventive work agreed upon with Roskomnadzor.

Restricting mobile Internet is dangerous for residents of Yakutia with its harsh climate, said State Duma deputy and former mayor of Yakutsk Sardana Avksentieva. According to her, without WhatsApp, people will not be able to call for help if their car breaks down on the highway. In addition, due to interruptions in the Internet, it is difficult to pay for the bus or buy plane tickets. She sent parliamentary requests to Roskomnadzor and the Ministry of Digital Development with a request to explain the restrictions.

Interruptions in the work of instant messengers in Yakutia began on January 24 amid protests: residents of Yakutsk came to the square after a native of Tajikistan killed a man.

Deputy Minister of Infocommunication Technologies of Yakutia Andrei Suslov said that failures in the work of Telegram and WhatsApp are associated with preventive work agreed upon with Roskomnadzor. Failures in the operation of messengers were also observed in other regions of the Far East.

Interestingly, in May 2022, he came out with a poster “I am for peace” to the regional Duma building. He was then accused of “discrediting” and fined. But then the fine was canceled on appeal.

From [Real Siberia News Channel on Telegram] (there are articles on other channels but this is the most comprehensive summary)

There was also a post I saw 20 minutes ago somewhere that said access to these apps had been restored just recently, but I've since lost where I saw the post.

 

[Aussie in exile]

A bit more news in Russia that Putin won't like.
Does anybody know how many female members of Putin's and Lavrov's family have husbands serving on the front line?

'Send back our husbands' - Russian women in rare protest

A group of Russian women are making rare public demands for reservists to return from the front line.

www.bbc.com

 

[Mobbs]

Another thing going on recently is refusal of entry and/or deportations of Russian entertainers from such countries as Indonesia and Thailand.

One such figure is comedian Maxim Galkin, who was refused entry to Indonesia per a request from Russian authorities.

Maxim Galkin was not allowed to enter Bali

The reason has become known.

ground.news

Another was the members of rock group Bi-2 (my Russian friends had commonly recommended them to me) who were arrested in Thailand. It seems the next step is deport them back to Russia. The latest articles actually come out of the Israeli newsphere as they apparently have Israeli-born members in the group. I also believe the group has its roots primarily in Belarus. The given reason for the arrests is the absence of work permits.

Israeli members of Russian-sanctioned rock band arrested in Thailand | The Jerusalem Post

There is a possibility that the band could be deported to Russia, where they face imprisonment over their opposition to the war on Ukraine.

www.jpost.com

More on Bi-2 from [Real Siberia TG] :

The musicians of the rock group "Bi-2", detained yesterday after a concert on the island of Phuket in Thailand, were sentenced to a fine of $95 each due to lack of work permits. RIA Novosti reports this.

A tourism police spokesman previously said the musicians would be ordered to leave Thailand after paying the fine.

Concerts of "Bi-2" were held in Pattaya on January 22 and Phuket province on January 24.

"Bi-2" is a Russian-language rock band. It appeared in 1988 in Bobruisk, Belarus. The founders and permanent participants are Shura Bi-2 and Lyova Bi-2. The team also includes Andrey Zvonkov, Max Latmus, Boris Lifshitz and Yan Nikolenko.

Last May, the Russian Ministry of Justice added musician Yegor Bortnik (Lev “Bi-2”) to the register of “foreign agents.” The Ministry of Justice then stated that Bortnik opposed the Russian invasion of Ukraine and spoke negatively about Russia, its citizens and government bodies.

On January 15, it was reported that the sale of tickets for Maxim Galkin’s concerts was suspended in Thailand. Previously, performances by stand-up comedian Ruslan Bely were canceled there. Both Maxim Galkin and Bely condemned the Russian military invasion of Ukraine and left Russia. They hold concerts abroad, including in support of Ukraine.

The third example is comedian Ruslan Bely, who is also on the Russian register of 'foreign agents' (ie, anyone who is critical of RF activities)
His concerts in Thailand were cancelled for an "reasons beyond the control of the organisers".

From TASS:

В Таиланде отменили концерты Руслана Белого

Экс-резидент Comedy Club должен был выступать 7 и 9 января в городах Паттайя и Пхукет

tass.ru

Apparently many members of Bi-2 also have Australian citizenship ... however the Australian consul was refused permission to visit them in their cell. [SOTA TG]

The common theme here seems to be Russian input into their situation, and the celebrities' anti-Ukraine war stance. If returned to Russia, they would potentially face arrest. Bi-2 are outright sanctioned (on the naughty list) by the RF. Unsure about Galkin.

Maria Zakharova made a statement that the arrests etc were "unsurprising" and referred to the artists as sympathetic to terrorism. This is a reference to their stances anti- the RF invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Rayzorwire]

Load of crap. Orban and Hungary know full well that Russia cannot support them in any significant way economically going forward, when the Russian economy cant sustain itself.

Western agencies admit Russia's economy grew last year and will grow again this year - exceeding the expected growth of most EU nations - so I'm not sure how you managed to come to that conclusion?

Turkey and the Central European nations currently within the EU will have to choose sooner or later whether or not to becoming fully fledged members of BRICS (or just heaviy cooperating with them) is far more in their interests than remaining tied to the EU.

Which bloc would you choose?

The bloc with rapidly failing economic growth, or the bloc which is very clearly going to have far more economic power in the future, even before the eventual collapse of US dollar hegemony?

Russia/China/India don't want to go to war with the West, they'd much prefer to keep peacefully eating our lunch in the trade war which they've already won.

He is just using his pro-Russia stance to blackmail the EU in providing billions of dollars in assistance to stop Hungary going down the drain.

Sure he's blackmailing them, that's smart politics, isn't it?

Get the best deal for your people?

If he was choosing plan B, he would have left the EU already, rather than beg for money.

See above re BRICS.

The EU needs its easternmost members far more than they need the EU.

 

[Rayzorwire]

Where ..?

Please show me

I allowed you to use the clarification that you think the NYT is pro-Putin, but not directly paid by him, in preference if you prefer...what's hard to comprehend about that?

 

[Aussie in exile]

Russian economy is dire financial circumstances. All down to Putin. Happy days.

Putin’s created an economic crisis and left Moscow no easy way out

Western sanctions have left Russia in dire financial circumstances — stuck somewhere between recession and stagnation. Though proven solutions exist for what now ails Russia, President Vladimir Putin’s geo-strategic and political choices have rendered these traditional economic approaches...

www.wilsoncenter.org