Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 5 - thread rules updated

[Zidane98]

While US special forces capture Maduro within 3 hours Russian spetsnaz forces were annihilated trying to capture Zelensky and all they could kidnap was a racoon from a Kherson zoo:

 

[wannabejack]

While US special forces capture Maduro within 3 hours Russian spetsnaz forces were annihilated trying to capture Zelensky and all they could kidnap was a racoon from a Kherson zoo:

Just like any other Ukrainian raccoon this one refused to give up easily!

 

[Baldur]

Ukraine drones produced locally now contain 97% Ukranian components:




Imagine anyone being dumb enough to argue that Ukraine fights on due to US backing. Especially considering the piss weak $800 military assistance package to Ukraine in the latest US military $1 trillion budget.


You'd have to be some kind of idiot to argue it's the US backing Ukraine now.

Idiot (just plain stupid), Fool (lives in fantasy world) or Dishonest (campaigner with undisclosed but obvious agenda). It appears we have all three types on here from time to time.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Ukraine drones produced locally now contain 97% Ukranian components:




Imagine anyone being dumb enough to argue that Ukraine fights on due to US backing. Especially considering the piss weak $800 military assistance package to Ukraine in the latest US military $1 trillion budget.


You'd have to be some kind of idiot to argue it's the US backing Ukraine now.

If Ukraine somehow survive this outrageous invasion and return to being a free, autonomous nation, they are going to be massive players on the world stage when it comes to providing other client nations with drone technology and IP.

 

[Zidane98]

Merry Xmas and a not so happy New Year from Strelkov:

 

[wannabejack]

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/partners-tactics-failed-f-16-pilots-forced-to-adapt-combat-rules-to-the-realities-of-the-war-in-ukraine/

The air combat tactics Ukrainian pilots were taught during their F-16 training proved unsuitable for the realities of the Ukrainian battlefield. The pilots had to develop their own strategies for combat near the front lines.

To avoid enemy attacks, Ukrainian pilots use maneuvering tactics at low altitudes. This makes it harder for enemy radars and missile guidance systems to lock onto and track them, because the ground creates a lot of background noise and blocks clear radar signals.

Sometimes, F-16 pilots in the escort group—who are protecting planes carrying precision bombs for strike missions—intentionally expose themselves to enemy aircraft. This forces the enemy to fire missiles at them, which helps “waste” the enemy’s missile stock and creates an opportunity for the strike aircraft to deliver its bombs

 

[Andre]

Merry Xmas and a not so happy New Year from Strelkov:

How's that gloomy? Sounds like a forecast for a great 2026.

 

[wannabejack]

Allies To Pledge 'Binding Commitments' On Ukraine's Security, Draft Of Paris Peace Summit Shows

Officials from the more than 30 Western countries of the so-called Coalition of the Willing that support Kyiv in its battle with Russia will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on January 6 to fine tune a peace proposal aimed at ending Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II.

www.rferl.org

UK, France, Ukraine Ink Declaration on Multinational Force in Ukraine

The US for the first time has offered “to support the force in case of attack,” in a development that has been described by European leaders as groundbreaking.

www.kyivpost.com

The joint declaration inked by Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and President Volodymyr Zelensky will see Britain and France setting up “military hubs” across Ukraine to facilitate boots on the ground if needed and to assist with post-war reconstruction.

The US for the first time has offered “to support the force in case of attack,” in a development that has been described by European leaders as game-changing.

Speaking after the discussions, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said that security guarantees were now “largely finished,” while US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner hailed the decisions as a “very, very big milestone.”

Zelensky said on Tuesday that the most significant issue that has still not been resolved by the allies is “the territorial question,” in reference to Russia’s maximalist demands that Kyiv surrender its eastern Donbas region.

 

[Zidane98]

Former Vice PM of Russia says Ukraine winning is a win for Russians:

 

[Andre]

https://militarnyi.com/en/news/partners-tactics-failed-f-16-pilots-forced-to-adapt-combat-rules-to-the-realities-of-the-war-in-ukraine/

The air combat tactics Ukrainian pilots were taught during their F-16 training proved unsuitable for the realities of the Ukrainian battlefield. The pilots had to develop their own strategies for combat near the front lines.

To avoid enemy attacks, Ukrainian pilots use maneuvering tactics at low altitudes. This makes it harder for enemy radars and missile guidance systems to lock onto and track them, because the ground creates a lot of background noise and blocks clear radar signals.

Sometimes, F-16 pilots in the escort group—who are protecting planes carrying precision bombs for strike missions—intentionally expose themselves to enemy aircraft. This forces the enemy to fire missiles at them, which helps “waste” the enemy’s missile stock and creates an opportunity for the strike aircraft to deliver its bombs

Not surprising they've had to adapt. The first task Western airforces do is SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense). With Stealth aircraft, or the inclusion of E/A-18 Growlers for suppression of radar and other tracking. Then lots of missions also include growlers to help keep enemy aircraft / SAM's from being a threat. Western forces keep giving Ukraine parts of the equipment they use, then train them as if they had everything. Same as when they trained them for the tanks etc., using the tactics that assumed air superiority Western forces enjoy.

 

[wannabejack]

Europe gets warm words from US on Ukraine — but reliability fears loom

An explicit commitment that Washington would backstop Kyiv was scrapped in the leaders’ final joint statement.

www.politico.eu

Other nations have suggested deploying aircraft based in neighboring NATO countries to monitor Ukrainian skies, and Turkey has agreed to lead the coalition’s maritime segment to secure the Black Sea.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin was open to deploying its troops in a neighboring NATO country that would act in case of Russian aggression, telling reporters "we are not ruling anything out." But he stressed that the final decision would be up to Germany's parliament.

 

[Zidane98]

Anyone who defends Russia's forcible transfer of minors without permission from either parents / guardians or the state in Ukraine to far away places in Russia is sick in the head:

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/report/western-media-peddle-russias-abduction-of-ukrainian-children-to-prolong-the-war/

Russian officials even openly publish an orphan trafficking database:

Ukrainian NGO Accuses Russia-Controlled Luhansk Of Operating 'Child Trafficking' Database

A Ukrainian NGO has accused Russia of "state-sponsored child trafficking" after a group of administrators in Russia-controlled areas of Ukraine published an online catalog of what they called Ukrainian orphans.

www.rferl.org

The only legitimate action Russia can take with any minor on territory it has invaded is attempt to return them firstly to parents / guardians and in the absence of either return them to state authorities in Ukraine. No other action is acceptable, Russia is the aggressor, Russia is the invader.


Anything else absolutely is forcible transfer of children without permission and a war crime, end of story.

This is supported not only by arrest warrants against Pedo Putin and his child commissioner but also by the European Court of Human rights who have also found the same.

The OCSE has also investigated and found the same:

https://www.oscepa.org/en/documents/ad-hoc-committees-and-working-groups/parliamentary-support-team-for-ukraine/5294-russian-abductions-and-deportations-of-ukrainian-children-by-carina-oedebrink-eng/file

Of serious concern is creation of Russian identities / destruction of Ukranian identities and forced reeducation / brainwashing of children forcibly kidnapped without permission. This is quite literally Nazi Germany & Hitler being repeated in modern times.

 

[CD Xbow]

The Russians are strapping MANPADS to their Shahed 136 drones.

Russian Shahed-136 Kamikaze Drones Now Carrying MANPADS Missiles

The Shahed-136 is now toting a shoulder-fired heat seeking missile as Russia continues to expand the drone’s capabilities. The Shahed/Geran is now toting a man-portable air defense system as Russia continues to expand the drone’s capabilities.

www.twz.com

 

[Sarcoidevo]

Interesting article

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/10/preparing-for-the-death-of-putin.html

 

[CD Xbow]

Interesting article

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/10/preparing-for-the-death-of-putin.html

Thanks for posting, well worth a read.

 

[barreness]

Russias whole cold war era dinosaur leadership are openly Nazi.

Putin copies Hitler's ideas, even using his speeches regularly.


Do you find that embarrassing in Russia ?

Go on?

Fascists in Ukraine are quite open about it
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30655184
Marchers carried the nationalist flags of Svoboda and the Right Sector - both movements that helped to topple ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, who was an ally of Moscow, last February.

Classy stuff

 

[barreness]

Sounds familiar

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c624m4kgrg3o
Venezuela has criticised Brazil's decision to veto its admission to the Brics group of emerging economies.

Brazil was trying to calm the farm, not enough for Trump

 

[barreness]

That if anything under-estimates the problem. The Soviet philosophy for military equipment was the same as for their soldiers. 'Don't worry about the best quality, quantity is a quality all of it's own'. Their aircraft were designed with shorter airframe live spans, figuring they'll punch out heaps and would get new one's regularly enough. Plus they trained a lot less than the US and other NATO countries. With the Soviets pumping out those jets at big numbers, this was a viable choice. Sure, not as good as F-15, F-16 etc., but if you could get up more, that'd compensate.

Successful strategy

Except post Cold-War they:
1. Aren't producing those numbers
2. Are flying a lot of hours, due to the war. A lot of those airframes are near / at those life spans. That doesn't mean they'll fall apart mid-air as the clock ticks over, Wile E. Coyote style, but the risk of loss of aircraft during missions goes up significantly. This could be mitigated by point 3 below, to a degree, but that'd require Putin agreeing to a reduced use of them. Which won't happen.
3. Don't prioritise maintenance / safety like Western Airforces do. If something happens on a single aircraft / helicopter in Western forces, all of that type are stood down until a fix is in place. And they do a shit ton of maintenance hours per flight hour. These aren't guys dragged from garages, it's a highly skilled profession, taking years to get them fully up to speed. Russia isn't pushing more mechanics into training. If anything, like everywhere else, they've gone minimal numbers, so they can have more bodies in trenches.

Su34 and glide bombs have been a major factor'24/25. Su35 fly escort missions generally, Frogfoots have been doing CAS, and Mig31 to launch the Khinzals which are almost unstoppable. It's not air superiority but it's still a useful airforce. Ka52's shredded the '23/Kursk counter-offensive

They're producing more than they lose against whatever Patriots the US was willing to give(or now what the EU pays for).

Whatever is left of the Ukraine AF is used to counter drones and cruise missiles deep within their territory

Which the three together points to a decreased use of Russian aviation in 2026, with an increased number of incidents. Putin won't stop though. He could be down to the Russian airforce being one guy flapping his arms and going 'Whoosh', if he gets Ukraine at the end of it. No matter the cost, if Russia takes Ukraine he figures it'll be worth it, as they can rebuild. TBH, from a Russian point of view, not a moral one, that's a fair assessment. Which makes it all the more important to drive his airforce, trains, economy and everything else to the point of being broken, so he can't take it and Russia is still so broken they aren't a threat to anyone ever again.

Airforce and Navy have always been the most neglected parts of Russian/Soviet forces, comparative advantage and all that for a continental power facing off against the US.

Valid point to shit on their commercial aviation, would much rather take the trans-siberian night train

 

[barreness]

Ukraine drones produced locally now contain 97% Ukranian components:




Imagine anyone being dumb enough to argue that Ukraine fights on due to US backing. Especially considering the piss weak $800 military assistance package to Ukraine in the latest US military $1 trillion budget.


You'd have to be some kind of idiot to argue it's the US backing Ukraine now.

Firepoint drones now apparently contain 97%

This is the same company that was so corrupt it brought down the Chief of staff. Wonder what happened to those V2.....I mean flamingo missiles that they were producing 50 a week of
https://kyivindependent.com/exclusi...mingo-cruise-missile-facing-corruption-probe/
https://www.politico.eu/article/fla...putin-donald-trump-volodymyr-zelenskyy-drone/

 

[barreness]

Allies To Pledge 'Binding Commitments' On Ukraine's Security, Draft Of Paris Peace Summit Shows

Officials from the more than 30 Western countries of the so-called Coalition of the Willing that support Kyiv in its battle with Russia will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on January 6 to fine tune a peace proposal aimed at ending Europe's deadliest conflict since World War II.

www.rferl.org

UK, France, Ukraine Ink Declaration on Multinational Force in Ukraine

The US for the first time has offered “to support the force in case of attack,” in a development that has been described by European leaders as groundbreaking.

www.kyivpost.com

The joint declaration inked by Britain’s Sir Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and President Volodymyr Zelensky will see Britain and France setting up “military hubs” across Ukraine to facilitate boots on the ground if needed and to assist with post-war reconstruction.

After a cease fire we will send troops that make a ceasefire agreement unacceptable to Russia, making any agreement impossible. Congratulations, the war continues

 

[barreness]

Interesting article

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/10/preparing-for-the-death-of-putin.html

RAND and ISW do appear to run US foreign policy, at least the neocon side of things.


They essentially wrote the policy for the current war.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

Bear in mind people have been writing about Putin dying for two decades.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claims_of_Vladimir_Putin's_incapacity_and_death

This reads like manufacturing consent for an attempt at Putin's life, if you believe the recent reports of the attack on Novgorod it could be post-hoc

 

[Andre]

Successful strategy

Considering they lost the Cold War, as they couldn't afford to keep producing even inferior equipment in the numbers to match or better NATO, it worked but not indefinitely.

Su34 and glide bombs have been a major factor'24/25. Su35 fly escort missions generally, Frogfoots have been doing CAS, and Mig31 to launch the Khinzals which are almost unstoppable. It's not air superiority but it's still a useful airforce. Ka52's shredded the '23/Kursk counter-offensive

They're producing more than they lose against whatever Patriots the US was willing to give(or now what the EU pays for).

Leaving aside Ka52's are helicopters and Russian losses of those are similar to planes (and the same life span issues on airframes), in 2025 Russia (using the most optimistic figures), produced around 20 Su-35's, around 15 Su-34's and a couple of Tupolev Tu-160 bombers. The Su-57 remains the world's greatest stealth fighter, as no one sees it in combat, not even Russian pilots, despite supposedly more and more each year. Though calling it a stealth fighter, is like calling a Nissan Skyline a true sports car.

The situation with replacing losses is a bit more nuanced then straight numbers though. They got around as many aircraft as they lost. There's two problems for Russia here:
1. New aircraft, when of the same role (fighter, air to ground, bomber etc.) are replacing losses, not the oldest planes to be decommissioned. This means the average age of the fleet and the number of planes near or at past recommended lifespans is still growing.
2. As you note they use a lot of glide bombs now. The best type of aircraft for that? Bombers. You know what type Russia lost a lot more of then they replaced in 2025 (Operation Spiderweb)? Bombers. So for Russian tactics, even with around the same number of aircraft, they are able to launch less bombs at Ukraine per flight flown.

Airforce and Navy have always been the most neglected parts of Russian/Soviet forces, comparative advantage and all that for a continental power facing off against the US.

This is true. The Soviets always planned to fight (if not talking nuclear weapons), on the European continent, so the airforce and navy (outside submarines) have always been subordinate to the army. Even now, as you've noted, they are effectively using the airforce as airborne artillery with glide bombs. The Soviets and now Russia, have never truly embraced combined arms operations like the West. Hence why they could get away with their design choices for shorter lifespans, flying less hours to fight from home bases, versus NATO (especially the US), having to fly from the US or Western Europe further East.

 

[barreness]

Considering they lost the Cold War, as they couldn't afford to keep producing even inferior equipment in the numbers to match or better NATO, it worked but not indefinitely.

Yeh I'll give you that. Did defeat the Nazis though

The situation of US vs Soviets is somewhat flipped with the US vs China these days. Be interesting if the US learns the lessons or bankrupts themselves

Leaving aside Ka52's are helicopters and Russian losses of those are similar to planes (and the same life span issues on airframes), in 2025 Russia (using the most optimistic figures), produced around 20 Su-35's, around 15 Su-34's and a couple of Tupolev Tu-160 bombers. The Su-57 remains the world's greatest stealth fighter, as no one sees it in combat, not even Russian pilots, despite supposedly more and more each year. Though calling it a stealth fighter, is like calling a Nissan Skyline a true sports car.

Hahaha I do like the takes. Maybe they're so good they can't be seen.

The recorded loses aren't particularly high, propaganda/lies aside
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_..._and_accidents_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war

Su34's drop 1000 glide bombs a week, fair to say they are an active force on the front and Ukraine has very few answers.
Old source, march 2024
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hit-ukraine-hundreds-of-glide-bombs-less-than-week-2024-3

The situation with replacing losses is a bit more nuanced then straight numbers though. They got around as many aircraft as they lost. There's two problems for Russia here:
1. New aircraft, when of the same role (fighter, air to ground, bomber etc.) are replacing losses, not the oldest planes to be decommissioned. This means the average age of the fleet and the number of planes near or at past recommended lifespans is still growing.
2. As you note they use a lot of glide bombs now. The best type of aircraft for that? Bombers. You know what type Russia lost a lot more of then they replaced in 2025 (Operation Spiderweb)? Bombers. So for Russian tactics, even with around the same number of aircraft, they are able to launch less bombs at Ukraine per flight flown.

Nah, Su34 are the glide bombers. Fighter-bombers technically but they're not B52's

The Tu-xxx and similar are used to launch ballistic and cruise missiles well back from the front, these aren't at risk from AA(though spider web got a bunch). I think the production of these is a lot more constrained, give you that

This is true. The Soviets always planned to fight (if not talking nuclear weapons), on the European continent, so the airforce and navy (outside submarines) have always been subordinate to the army. Even now, as you've noted, they are effectively using the airforce as airborne artillery with glide bombs. The Soviets and now Russia, have never truly embraced combined arms operations like the West. Hence why they could get away with their design choices for shorter lifespans, flying less hours to fight from home bases, versus NATO (especially the US), having to fly from the US or Western Europe further East.

Yeh agree, also why the Russians/Soviets put so much work into AA and missiles in general.

My main point of contention is you seem to be suggesting the Russian air force will fall apart and drop off a cliff(due to metal fatigue?). This seems like' the missiles will run out in march '22' type areas

 

[Sarcoidevo]

RAND and ISW do appear to run US foreign policy, at least the neocon side of things.


They essentially wrote the policy for the current war.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

Bear in mind people have been writing about Putin dying for two decades.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claims_of_Vladimir_Putin's_incapacity_and_death

This reads like manufacturing consent for an attempt at Putin's life, if you believe the recent reports of the attack on Novgorod it could be post-hoc

Wow you are easily triggered

 

[Zidane98]

Go on?

Fascists in Ukraine are quite open about it
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30655184
Marchers carried the nationalist flags of Svoboda and the Right Sector - both movements that helped to topple ex-President Viktor Yanukovych, who was an ally of Moscow, last February.

Classy stuff

Far right parties have 5% of seats in the Rada. This is simply not reality despite whatever script you are following tells you.

Yanukovych abandoned his position of President and fled to his master Putin in Russia and never returned.

How does being a political ally of Pedo Putin work out by the way?