eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
West Coast: West Coast had a shock loss to Sydney before the bye, going down by 45 points after a 5 goal to 1 third quarter by the Swans, making it very difficult for the Eagles to recover. Dom Sheed, Andrew Gaff and Luke Shuey combined in the middle for 78 disposals and 12 clearances, whilst gun forward Josh Kennedy kicked 3 goals.
Essendon: Defeated the olde enemy Hawthorne on Friday Night, an early blitz in the final quarter sealing the win for the men in red and black. Essendon's half back line were excellent, especially Michael Hurley who took 12 marks in his 26 disposals, and 5 intercept possessions among them, whilst Orazio Fantasia enjoyed 2 goals in his return to football.
Head to Head (last 5)
West Coast 2-3 Essendon
Form Guide
West Coast: 4W 1L
Essendon: 3W 2L
Sportsbet odds
West Coast: $1.33
Essendon: $3.14
Line: 17.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
West Coast vs Essendon
B: Patrick Ambrose - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Jake Waterman - Josh Kennedy - Liam Ryan
HB: Conor McKenna - Michael Hurley- Mason Redman
HF: Jamie Cripps - Jack Darling - Tom Petrucelle
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Zach Merrett
C: Andrew Gaff - Dom Sheed - Mark Hutchings
HF: Josh Begley - Jayden Laverde - Orazio Fantasia
HB: Liam Duggan - Jeremy McGovern - Lewis Jetta
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Aaron Francis
B: Bradley Sheppard - Will Schofield - Shannon Hurn
R: Tom Bellchambers - Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell
R: Tom Hickey - Luke Shuey - Jack Redden
I: Darcy Parish - Matthew Guelfi - Kyle Langford - David Zaharakis
I: Josh Smith - Tom Cole - Oscar Allen - Josh Rotham
Essendon in: Francis; Out: Stringer
West Coast in: Shannon Hurn, Oscar Allen; Out: Willie Rioli (susp), Nathan Vardy (susp)
West Coast defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. Meanwhile West Coast are 6th in the defensive stat, conceding a goal 20.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50. West Coast's miserly defence are very good at chopping off opposition attacks so it's important to not just bomb it into attack, with Jeremy McGovern likely to dominate the airways. Lowering the eyes and hitting up leading targets such as Jayden Laverde and Orazio Fantasia will be crucial, although the latter will have his hands full against Brad Sheppard, one of the best stoppers of small forwards in the game
Midfield/rucks battle
The centre of the ground is usually where it's won and lost, and Essendon look to have an advantage in both the clearance area and the contested possessions area, ranking 3rd and 8th in the differential stats of those areas respectively, whilst West Coast are 8th (with a negative differential, mind) and 15th in those areas respectively. Dom Sheed may well get tagged by a similar player to him at that age in Dylan Clarke since Elliott Yeo is out and Luke Shuey's pace will trouble Clarke, so it goes to their next best clearance winner. On the flip side, West Coast made the mistake to not play Mark Hutchings on Zach Merrett last year so expect Simpson to fix that mistake and send his stopper to the influential Bomber. The rest of the midfield will be interesting, with Luke Shuey and Jack Redden likely to go head-to-head with Dylan Shiel and Dyson Heppell respectively in the middle, whilst Andrew McGrath is going to try to match it with superstar Andrew Gaff. Rucks wise, Tom Bellchambers boasts the highest hitout to advantage rate in the league over the past 3 years of the regular ruckmen and Tom Hickey has averaged 18 hitouts this year, so it's fair to say Essendon will have an advantage here.
West Coast forward line vs Essendon defence
West Coast are excellent forward of centre, kicking a goal 24.9% of the time it enters the forward 50, ranked 3rd in the competition for this stat. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. Unlike most games of the year, this will be the area where the game is won and lost, with West Coast's three pronged attack in Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Oscar Allen against Cale Hooker, Paddy Ambrose and Michael Hurley respectively, with Adam Saad likely to take Liam Ryan. Essendon's defence is one of the better ones in the league whilst West Coast are good at exposing weaker players so it promises to be the big match up of the game.
X-Factor Player
Jack Petrucelle has enjoyed a good debut season but with 1 goal in his past 4 games and averaging 8.5 touches in that time it's fair to say the bye came at the right time for the speedster, look for him to improve after a week off.
Key stat
West Coast: Inside 50 conversion. They boast one of the best forward lines in the game, but are coming up against a miserly defence. Need to assert their authority in this area of the ground.
Essendon: Clearances. Essendon are the 3rd best clearance side in the comp against the opposition so they need to continue this trend to make sure they get more forward entries than the opposition.
Tip
Tough game to pick, the Eagles will be looking for blood but Essendon are finally building momentum. When the head doesn't know, go with the heart. Essendon by 8.
Essendon: Defeated the olde enemy Hawthorne on Friday Night, an early blitz in the final quarter sealing the win for the men in red and black. Essendon's half back line were excellent, especially Michael Hurley who took 12 marks in his 26 disposals, and 5 intercept possessions among them, whilst Orazio Fantasia enjoyed 2 goals in his return to football.
Head to Head (last 5)
West Coast 2-3 Essendon
Form Guide
West Coast: 4W 1L
Essendon: 3W 2L
Sportsbet odds
West Coast: $1.33
Essendon: $3.14
Line: 17.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
West Coast vs Essendon
B: Patrick Ambrose - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Jake Waterman - Josh Kennedy - Liam Ryan
HB: Conor McKenna - Michael Hurley- Mason Redman
HF: Jamie Cripps - Jack Darling - Tom Petrucelle
C: Andrew McGrath - Dylan Clarke - Zach Merrett
C: Andrew Gaff - Dom Sheed - Mark Hutchings
HF: Josh Begley - Jayden Laverde - Orazio Fantasia
HB: Liam Duggan - Jeremy McGovern - Lewis Jetta
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Shaun McKernan - Aaron Francis
B: Bradley Sheppard - Will Schofield - Shannon Hurn
R: Tom Bellchambers - Dylan Shiel - Dyson Heppell
R: Tom Hickey - Luke Shuey - Jack Redden
I: Darcy Parish - Matthew Guelfi - Kyle Langford - David Zaharakis
I: Josh Smith - Tom Cole - Oscar Allen - Josh Rotham
Essendon in: Francis; Out: Stringer
West Coast in: Shannon Hurn, Oscar Allen; Out: Willie Rioli (susp), Nathan Vardy (susp)
West Coast defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon are ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry, getting one 21.6% of the time it enters the 50. Meanwhile West Coast are 6th in the defensive stat, conceding a goal 20.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50. West Coast's miserly defence are very good at chopping off opposition attacks so it's important to not just bomb it into attack, with Jeremy McGovern likely to dominate the airways. Lowering the eyes and hitting up leading targets such as Jayden Laverde and Orazio Fantasia will be crucial, although the latter will have his hands full against Brad Sheppard, one of the best stoppers of small forwards in the game
Midfield/rucks battle
The centre of the ground is usually where it's won and lost, and Essendon look to have an advantage in both the clearance area and the contested possessions area, ranking 3rd and 8th in the differential stats of those areas respectively, whilst West Coast are 8th (with a negative differential, mind) and 15th in those areas respectively. Dom Sheed may well get tagged by a similar player to him at that age in Dylan Clarke since Elliott Yeo is out and Luke Shuey's pace will trouble Clarke, so it goes to their next best clearance winner. On the flip side, West Coast made the mistake to not play Mark Hutchings on Zach Merrett last year so expect Simpson to fix that mistake and send his stopper to the influential Bomber. The rest of the midfield will be interesting, with Luke Shuey and Jack Redden likely to go head-to-head with Dylan Shiel and Dyson Heppell respectively in the middle, whilst Andrew McGrath is going to try to match it with superstar Andrew Gaff. Rucks wise, Tom Bellchambers boasts the highest hitout to advantage rate in the league over the past 3 years of the regular ruckmen and Tom Hickey has averaged 18 hitouts this year, so it's fair to say Essendon will have an advantage here.
West Coast forward line vs Essendon defence
West Coast are excellent forward of centre, kicking a goal 24.9% of the time it enters the forward 50, ranked 3rd in the competition for this stat. Essendon conced a goal 19.7% of the time it enters their defensive 50, ranking at 5th overall so far this year. Unlike most games of the year, this will be the area where the game is won and lost, with West Coast's three pronged attack in Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Oscar Allen against Cale Hooker, Paddy Ambrose and Michael Hurley respectively, with Adam Saad likely to take Liam Ryan. Essendon's defence is one of the better ones in the league whilst West Coast are good at exposing weaker players so it promises to be the big match up of the game.
X-Factor Player
Jack Petrucelle has enjoyed a good debut season but with 1 goal in his past 4 games and averaging 8.5 touches in that time it's fair to say the bye came at the right time for the speedster, look for him to improve after a week off.
Key stat
West Coast: Inside 50 conversion. They boast one of the best forward lines in the game, but are coming up against a miserly defence. Need to assert their authority in this area of the ground.
Essendon: Clearances. Essendon are the 3rd best clearance side in the comp against the opposition so they need to continue this trend to make sure they get more forward entries than the opposition.
Tip
Tough game to pick, the Eagles will be looking for blood but Essendon are finally building momentum. When the head doesn't know, go with the heart. Essendon by 8.
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