What is the real state of the economy?

[Maggie5]

With respect meds there's the rules and what's actually happening.
I have a Malaysian client with 26 Australian properties of which 21 were bought as second hand houses in the residential market. He hadn't even heard of the FIRB before we informed him.
The reality is huge chunks of certain areas of all the bigger cities are owned by wealthy outsiders and no one at government level seems to really care that much.

It is interesting that China get the bad publicity but I too know of Malaysian citizens that were residents but have since gone home that still have a sizable property portfolio in Australia.

Just on the IGR, a lot of emphasis has been on the aging population but in 40 years time, what about the current situation of 20% youth unemployment. Little has been said about this. Even if half of those are in employment in 10 years time, the remaining 50% will have a big impact on future budgets. Not sure how these percentages translate into numbers but if it assumed that 40,000 will be over 100, how many of the 20% unemployed will be in employment?

 

[Hawk Dork]

Im sure the plan is for some of them to be trained up as baristas to make lates for the all the self funded retirees.

 

[Eagle87]

It is interesting that China get the bad publicity but I too know of Malaysian citizens that were residents but have since gone home that still have a sizable property portfolio in Australia.

Just on the IGR, a lot of emphasis has been on the aging population but in 40 years time, what about the current situation of 20% youth unemployment. Little has been said about this. Even if half of those are in employment in 10 years time, the remaining 50% will have a big impact on future budgets. Not sure how these percentages translate into numbers but if it assumed that 40,000 will be over 100, how many of the 20% unemployed will be in employment?

Haven't read the IGR as yet.

That said, given the average rate of wages in Australia v the rest of the world (and in particular at the low skilled or semi-skilled end), you'd need to upskill or move into local services (i.e services to Aussies in Aussie that can't be outsourced).

 

[Maggie5]

Haven't read the IGR as yet.

That said, given the average rate of wages in Australia v the rest of the world (and in particular at the low skilled or semi-skilled end), you'd need to upskill or move into local services (i.e services to Aussies in Aussie that can't be outsourced).

Really just saying that in addition to the aged, current youth unemployment needs urgent attention, yet haven't much from either side of politics address it.
Not sure that 'services' can accommodate them all.
Sadly little is being done about falling numbers in traineeships, pre-apprenticeships, apprenticeships, I believe the numbers have fallen over the past 5 years.

 

[madmug]

Really just saying that in addition to the aged, current youth unemployment needs urgent attention, yet haven't much from either side of politics address it.
Not sure that 'services' can accommodate them all.
Sadly little is being done about falling numbers in traineeships, pre-apprenticeships, apprenticeships, I believe the numbers have fallen over the past 5 years.

Not everyone has the capability to do apprenticeships. The problem is that we have exported a lot of entry level menial jobs over the last decade or so.

The fact is the Gument had a plan to end the car industry, end the carbon tax, destroy the alternative energy industry, but SFA positive policies for developing jobs.

 

[Lester Burnham]

Just on the IGR, a lot of emphasis has been on the aging population but in 40 years time, what about the current situation of 20% youth unemployment. Little has been said about this. Even if half of those are in employment in 10 years time, the remaining 50% will have a big impact on future budgets. Not sure how these percentages translate into numbers but if it assumed that 40,000 will be over 100, how many of the 20% unemployed will be in employment?

Despite some crackdowns the rules around 457 visas are still too slack. If we curtailed the practise then firms would be compelled to train young people. And many thousands of Australian jobs are being moved overseas because "offshoring" is completely unregulated. The jobs are switched overseas not because there are no Australians who are qualified but because overseas workers are cheaper. Of course, they also have less stringent rules about health and safety, sick leave, racial and sexual discrimination, workplace bullying etc.

But when we look at the youth unemployment rate we also need to factor in how many young people are unemployable. I'm not sure whether it is the schools' attitude or the internet culture but there seems to be a lot of kids happy to stay home and do nothing. In my experience the kids who put some effort into finding a job, then reliably turn up on time and graft - continue to be employed.

There's also regional hotspots. Tasmania is a basket case as are parts of Queensland. People have to be prepared to relocate to find work sometimes.

I think there will be growth areas of employment. An ageing population will require more healthcare workers, more residential aged care, even skills trainers for older workers. As Chinese wealth increases tourism will continue to expand here. As will international education services. We are well placed for medical research and fuel technology research.

 

[Maggie5]

Despite some crackdowns the rules around 457 visas are still too slack. If we curtailed the practise then firms would be compelled to train young people. And many thousands of Australian jobs are being moved overseas because "offshoring" is completely unregulated. The jobs are switched overseas not because there are no Australians who are qualified but because overseas workers are cheaper. Of course, they also have less stringent rules about health and safety, sick leave, racial and sexual discrimination, workplace bullying etc.

But when we look at the youth unemployment rate we also need to factor in how many young people are unemployable. I'm not sure whether it is the schools' attitude or the internet culture but there seems to be a lot of kids happy to stay home and do nothing. In my experience the kids who put some effort into finding a job, then reliably turn up on time and graft - continue to be employed.

There's also regional hotspots. Tasmania is a basket case as are parts of Queensland. People have to be prepared to relocate to find work sometimes.

I think there will be growth areas of employment. An ageing population will require more healthcare workers, more residential aged care, even skills trainers for older workers. As Chinese wealth increases tourism will continue to expand here. As will international education services. We are well placed for medical research and fuel technology research.

Lot of merit in what you post but please don't get me started on 457, student, tourist, visas.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Back onto more relevant things, penalty rates for Sat and Sunday can go except on PH weekends I think. The flexible workplace and separation of church and state means the weekend is not a special thing. Public Holidays deserve greater pay as you want people to take breaks, families and friends to be able to get together, etc, and so decentivising/compensating for work on that day is a good thing.

I'm a bit surprised that the Productivity Commission seems to be taking a political approach to this issue (rather than simply recommending the best thing and letting politicians work out the political comprimise), but the idea of making Sunday penalty rates on par with Saturday makes sense to me. Sunday doesn't seem anymore special than a Saturday these days and double-time always seemed very generous.

I half-heard that the economic outlook should be OK with the rate hold, which if true is good in light of the China wobble. If a few more of the hard-right ideologues like Bishop get pushed to the background, and the trade deals don't get locked in with anything drastic, we might get away without too much lasting damage from this Abbott-News Corp period of leadership.

 

[medusala]

If a few more of the hard-right ideologues like Bishop get pushed to the background, and the trade deals don't get locked in with anything drastic, we might get away without too much lasting damage from this Abbott-News Corp period of leadership.

Lol, lasting damage. It has already been done. A large increase in debt for no reason and now the wheels are falling off in China. They have already spent circa 10% gdp on propping up their sharemarket. Coal and iron ore are in real trouble (see Atlas Iron etc).

One thing we can be grateful for is in an otherwise very bleak outlook those two idiotic taxes ie mining and carbon, have been removed.

If the US raises rates, there could well be chaos for Australia re commodities and the AUD.

 

[Power Raid]

I'm a bit surprised that the Productivity Commission seems to be taking a political approach to this issue (rather than simply recommending the best thing and letting politicians work out the political comprimise), but the idea of making Sunday penalty rates on par with Saturday makes sense to me. Sunday doesn't seem anymore special than a Saturday these days and double-time always seemed very generous.

I half-heard that the economic outlook should be OK with the rate hold, which if true is good in light of the China wobble. If a few more of the hard-right ideologues like Bishop get pushed to the background, and the trade deals don't get locked in with anything drastic, we might get away without too much lasting damage from this Abbott-News Corp period of leadership.

oh Ratts

 

[madmug]

Lol, lasting damage. It has already been done. A large increase in debt for no reason and now the wheels are falling off in China. They have already spent circa 10% gdp on propping up their sharemarket. Coal and iron ore are in real trouble (see Atlas Iron etc).

One thing we can be grateful for is in an otherwise very bleak outlook those two idiotic taxes ie mining and carbon, have been removed.

If the US raises rates, there could well be chaos for Australia re commodities and the AUD.

I would have thought a rate rise in the USA would depress the $A. Good for exports, Good for local Tourist industry, A bugger for overseas trips. Would cause some inflation, but not much. Would maybe hurt our debt position.

The debt position which has blown out since the rABORT, hOCKEY adults entered the room.

The Carbon tax would have made little difference, except maybe increase jobs in renewables. The Mining tax was on large profits so would make no difference in the current climate.

 

[Lebbo73]

I would have thought a rate rise in the USA would depress the $A. Good for exports, Good for local Tourist industry, A bugger for overseas trips. Would cause some inflation, but not much. Would maybe hurt our debt position.

The debt position which has blown out since the rABORT, hOCKEY adults entered the room.

The Carbon tax would have made little difference, except maybe increase jobs in renewables. The Mining tax was on large profits so would make no difference in the current climate.

How is a lower Australian dollar food for Australians? It is the same as receiving a decrease in pay.

 

[Power Raid]

I would have thought a rate rise in the USA would depress the $A. Good for exports, Good for local Tourist industry, A bugger for overseas trips. Would cause some inflation, but not much. Would maybe hurt our debt position.

The debt position which has blown out since the rABORT, hOCKEY adults entered the room.

The Carbon tax would have made little difference, except maybe increase jobs in renewables. The Mining tax was on large profits so would make no difference in the current climate.

I agree on your comment re US rate hikes unless as a result our feds increase our rates to protect our dollar. I'm not sure how many sectors including property could cope as too many Aussies are loaded up with debt.

I fail to see how a carbon tax increases jobs in renewables as we don't have a big renewable manufacturing base. Or are you referring to import agents and installers?

 

[medusala]

I would have thought a rate rise in the USA would depress the $A. Good for exports, Good for local Tourist industry, A bugger for overseas trips.

MM, argument is the inverse correlation between AUD/USD and commodities. See Keating and banana republic. The last thing Australia needs is to raise interest rates to protect the $ and limit inflation. Noone really knows. It's a stab in the dark.

 

[Power Raid]

How is a lower Australian dollar food for Australians? It is the same as receiving a decrease in pay.

That's what this nation does need but it may trigger a bit of inflation (which wouldn't be a bad thing ATM). We just can't find ourselves in a position where we have low growth and high inflation which is a real long term risk as we try and pay down the debt.



oh and your right a falling $ it is not good for Australians for the reason you mention but it may be good for Australia......and low growth and high inflation is bad for both.

 

[Eagle87]

So basically we are getting the AUD to do the work of reform and hoping that works without too many adverse effects...

Or we could just tackle targeted reform in the areas that need it. Nah, we'll debase the currency and see what happens

Oddly most Australians haven't noticed that in global terms their wealth has dropped what 30-35% in the last 18 months? But they'll fight to the death about double time on Sunday for 18 year olds

 

[Power Raid]

So basically we are getting the AUD to do the work of reform and hoping that works without too many adverse effects...

Or we could just tackle targeted reform in the areas that need it. Nah, we'll debase the currency and see what happens

Oddly most Australians haven't noticed that in global terms their wealth has dropped what 30-35% in the last 18 months? But they'll fight to the death about double time on Sunday for 18 year olds

100% agree

we should reform but the will in the electorate simply isn't there. thus we end up with the leadership we have endured the last 8 years.

 

[Eagle87]

100% agree

we should reform but the will in the electorate simply isn't there. thus we end up with the leadership we have endured the last 8 years.

Oddly though, the "reform" would be a much better medium term solution.for said electorate than the vagaries (blunt instrument) of currency debasement.

I'm just unsure whether it's the electorate that are too stupid to see that OR whether it's the "leadership" that's completely incapable of explaining a fairly simple concept.

I mean your house that was worth $1.1m is now worth $720k would have rioting in the streets. But it hasn't because that's only when expressed in terms of global currency. Are people really that incapable of joining the dots?

 

[Power Raid]

Oddly though, the "reform" would be a much better medium term solution.for said electorate than the vagaries (blunt instrument) of currency debasement.

I'm just unsure whether it's the electorate that are too stupid to see that OR whether it's the "leadership" that's completely incapable of explaining a fairly simple concept.

I mean your house that was worth $1.1m is now worth $720k would have rioting in the streets. But it hasn't because that's only when expressed in terms of global currency. Are people really that incapable of joining the dots?

I shifted all my liquid wealth out of AUD quite some time back because of our debt position. It has turned out to be a great decision and will continue to be so.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

How is a lower Australian dollar food for Australians? It is the same as receiving a decrease in pay.

Oddly most Australians haven't noticed that in global terms their wealth has dropped what 30-35% in the last 18 months? But they'll fight to the death about double time on Sunday for 18 year olds

What are you two on about? The only reason the dollar went up was because we only got clipped by the GFC while everyone else got whacked. The traders that so many right-wingers seem to think are the bees' knees didn't expect us to get over parity, but the resources demand made it happen. Both those effects were bound to trail off, but to make out that somehow we've lost personal wealth is stupid when we can still buy the same things for the same dollars down the street.

I shifted all my liquid wealth out of AUD quite some time back because of our debt position. It has turned out to be a great decision and will continue to be so.

Stop fishing for gullible people to embezzle. And if you are one of those gullible people - it's pretty hard to live in Australia as PR does without spending AUD.

 

[Long Live HFC]

How is a lower Australian dollar food for Australians? It is the same as receiving a decrease in pay.

are you for real? let me know if you'd like me to explain it to you.

 

[Lebbo73]

What are you two on about? The only reason the dollar went up was because we only got clipped by the GFC while everyone else got whacked. The traders that so many right-wingers seem to think are the bees' knees didn't expect us to get over parity, but the resources demand made it happen. Both those effects were bound to trail off, but to make out that somehow we've lost personal wealth is stupid when we can still buy the same things for the same dollars down the street.

Stop fishing for gullible people to embezzle. And if you are one of those gullible people - it's pretty hard to live in Australia as PR does without spending AUD.

are you for real? let me know if you'd like me to explain it to you.

The craziness is on you two for not knowing why a low Australian dollar is bad for Australians

 

[Long Live HFC]

The craziness is on you two for not knowing why a low Australian dollar is bad for Australians

It's no surprise that your opinion here is such a simplistic binary construct. There are pros and cons to an expensive currency, just as there are pros and cons to a cheaper currency.

Asserting as you have here, that an expensive currency is all good, and a cheaper one all bad, is demonstrably wrong.

 

[Eagle87]

What are you two on about? The only reason the dollar went up was because we only got clipped by the GFC while everyone else got whacked. The traders that so many right-wingers seem to think are the bees' knees didn't expect us to get over parity, but the resources demand made it happen. Both those effects were bound to trail off, but to make out that somehow we've lost personal wealth is stupid when we can still buy the same things for the same dollars down the street.

Mate, it's not that complex.

You've lost personal wealth. By any global measure. And you can't buy the same things for the same dollars.... As they are worth less....

 

[Long Live HFC]

Mate, it's not that complex.

You've lost personal wealth. By any global measure. And you can't buy the same things for the same dollars.... As they are worth less....

That is again a simplification. Your statement is only true if youre talking about goods or services that have an overseas component to them. When the dollar falls do we automatically pay more for everything? Of course not.