Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[eaglevision]

There’s a few things to consider with your observations.

Firstly if GWS wasn’t after Cadman with pick 1 then a deal wouldn’t have been done. North weren’t interested in him so it didn’t hurt them to slip back a spot and take the extra picks, especially considering it helped them secure pick 2 from us,

Secondly do you think Geelong or GWS were better off for the picks they got for Cameron or Kelly?

I’m certain both clubs would have preferred to keep the players rather than lose them.

Would any of us be happy trading Oscar Allen for either deal they received?

As for the JHF deal let’s keep in mind that wasn’t even for the best player in that draft. Daicos was the clear number 1 and then it was a coin flip for Darcy or JHF.

In regards to the comparisons you have given, none of them are that similar considering

A) Pick 1 this year allows for the drafting of the best player in the draft (unlike Crows wanting to trade for JHF.)

B) Any club who has pick 1 is taking Reid, not an alternative such as Cadman.

C) We don’t need to trade the pick to make the best of a bad situation, such as Reid not wanting to come to WA or to recoup as much as we can for a star leaving (TK Cameron)

If someone wants pick 1 so much then we should let them make a ridiculous offer. Pick 2, 14 and 19 is not a ridiculous offer. As you have pointed out they are comparable offers in regards to other deals that have taken place. None which take into account A,B or C.

We don’t need to make the best of a bad situation, we don’t need to take speculative picks as compensation for losing pick 1. What we need to do is take the kid with the highest chance of improving our team.

Pick 2, 14 and 19 can go and get stuffed and on particular any picks that fall outside of the top 10 by the time we get to use them.

100% on the mark. Only deal I’m even considering has pick 2 and 3 in it and even then I still say no. We need contested ball so much that I’d still rather Reid over McKercher AND Curtin. Can split next year if needed.

 

[Monsterdarlz]

Watching the Futures game this morning and it struck me that although there is a number of exceptionally talented players who will be available next year, particularly in the midfield with players like Jagga Smith, Finn O’Sullivan, Sid Draper and Josh Smillie to name a few, however, there is no player who project as being anything like what Harley Reid can offer us. Not even close.
It's also worth noting that there's no player who is absolutely projecting as the best at this point, unlike Reid this time last year.
Accordingly, we I think we should be very loathe to trade pick 1 even if the offer is overs.
We can get an exceptional midfielder next year, but we're not likely to get the versatility in all three quadrants of the ground that we'd get with Reid.

And Reid was head and shoulders above his competitors in the same age bracket at that point in time as well

 

[bzparkes]

100% on the mark. Only deal I’m even considering has pick 2 and 3 in it and even then I still say no. We need contested ball so much that I’d still rather Reid over McKercher AND Curtin.

McKercher and Sanders tho...

Reckon North are more likely to find that appealing than trading up for Reid.

 

[Wedgetailed Westerner]

Clayton in Tassie apparently, presumably meeting with Sanders.

I'd say the additional PPs will almost certainly be given to North in a bid to trade up for Sanders, without giving him directly to North.

Reid will put bums on seats for north initially out of curiosity, but nothing draws crowds more than winning.

He's not the only player in the draft capable of doing that for them.

I'd love the rest of the comp to give the Tin Rattlers a bit FU and refuse to trade with them, so they can't get Sanders or any early picks

 

[bzparkes]

I'd love the rest of the comp to give the Tin Rattlers a bit FU and refuse to trade with them, so they can't get Sanders or any early picks

Would be nice.

 

[eaglevision]

McKercher and Sanders tho...

Reckon North are more likely to find that appealing than trading up for Reid.

That’s more tempting but if we ended up with 2 and 3 I don’t see the recruiting department (despite the fact that I think you and I would pick McKercher and Sanders) leaving Curtin on the shelf. I agree with you, I see North having a massive crack at 4 with their sympathy picks rather than 1. Would attract a much lower premium. If they do manage to get pick 4 that on draft night essentially leaves them with 2,3 and 5. I think in that scenario they will seriously have to consider leaving one of McKercher and Sanders on the shelf given they are stacked with mids already. Could open the door for a trade up of our own.

 

[Monocle]

Another thing I’d like to point out. This is our draft history over the past 15 years of selections between pick 20-35 which is where picks 14-19 could very well end up for us if we split pick 1 after 3 GC academy boys, two father and sons, McKay compo and a Swans academy boy.



2008
Luke Shuey
Tom Swift

2009
Gerrick Weedon
Koby Stevens

2010
Jack Darling
Scott Lycett

2011
Murray Newman
Frazer McInnes

2013
Malcom Karpany

2014
Tom Lamb

2015
Luke Partington

2017
Oscar Allen
Liam Ryan
Brayden Ainsworth

2018
Xavier O’Neill
Luke Foley
Bailey Williams

2021
Brady Hough

2022
Harry Barnett
Cody Burgiel

In 15 years we have had 20 picks in the 20-35 range. It’s too early to make a call on Burgiel, Barnett and Hough but I’ll admit Hough has shown promise. Still though for fairness we will take these three out of the equation. so that makes 17.

Out of that 17 we have had 6 that have made it.

Shuey, Darling, Lycett, Allen, Ryan and potentially Bailey Williams.

That’s 6 out of 17. For crying out loud, that’s 35 percent in 15 years.

Either our recruiters are s**t or this is the reality of players picked in this bracket.

The numbers show we have roughly a 35 percent chance of identifying and developing a player in this bracket.

So remind me again those who want to trade pick 1 for 2,14 and 19 why exactly it’s a good deal for us?

I think you will find that there wouldn't be a recruiting team in the competition, that wouldn't gladly take those number, of a 35 % hit rate with second and early third rounder picked players making it.

One in three is about the accepted rates for better drafting.

What does hamper Clubs however, is if they have a run of duds in all their second and third rounders in successive years.

I have long held the belief that one bad draft wont set the Club back to much, two succession bad drafts really hurts and three in
row sets a Club back for five years.

Conversely a "kissed on the dick" draft haul in a particular year, or two good draft hauls, in successive years can accelerate a teams rise markedly.

Astute draft and trading is a mix of knowing when to draft and when to trade respective of where your list is at the time, as the timing of each and combined mix of both, is what sets the better Clubs apart from the perennial also rans.

 

[eaglespremiers]

And Reid was head and shoulders above his competitors in the same age bracket at that point in time as well

Yes, my second point that I forgot to add to my post.
He was universally the best player last year (and remained the best player in his draft year this year) rather than simply in a handful of best players.

 

[bzparkes]

That’s more tempting but if we ended up with 2 and 3 I don’t see the recruiting department (despite the fact that I think you and I would pick McKercher and Sanders) leaving Curtin on the shelf. I agree with you, I see North having a massive crack at 4 with their sympathy picks rather than 1. Would attract a much lower premium. If they do manage to get pick 4 that on draft night essentially leaves them with 2,3 and 5. I think in that scenario they will seriously have to consider leaving one of McKercher and Sanders on the shelf given they are stacked with mids already. Could open the door for a trade up of our own.

Reckon they'll want to keep the Tassie boys together and got for Curtin, who'll still be available at GC's pick, in that case.

Or they may got for Watson instead and pick up talls later, which would probably make more sense, considering their list needs.

Personally, still think it'd be pretty dumb of them to bother trading up for Reid with the draft hand they currently have, and could have it they trade up with their PPs.

This is presuming they actually get pick 3 for McKay.

 

[eaglevision]

Reckon they'll want to keep the Tassie boys together and got for Curtin, who'll still be available at GC's pick, in that case.

Or they may got for Watson instead and pick up talls later, which would probably make more sense, considering their list needs.

Personally, still think it'd be pretty dumb of them to bother trading up for Reid with the draft hand they currently have, and could have it they trade up with their PPs.

This is presuming they actually get pick 3 for McKay.

If they don’t get pick 3 for McKay then I think we can put a line through any possible trade for Reid. If I was North I’d be trying use those PPs to get to pick 10ish (after bids etc) to get O’Sullivan and use their 2 picks before that on the Tassie boys yes. (If they get Band 2 compo they should be able to trade up for both GCS pick and a pick to get O’Sullivan)

 

[ArdentEagle]

I think you will find that there wouldn't be a recruiting team in the competition, that wouldn't gladly take those number, of a 35 % hit rate with second and early third rounder picked players making it.

One in three is about the accepted rates for better drafting.

What does hamper Clubs however, is if they have a run of duds in all their second and third rounders in successive years.

I have long held the belief that one bad draft wont set the Club back to much, two succession bad drafts really hurts and three in
row sets a Club back for five years.

Conversely a "kissed on the dick" draft haul in a particular year, or two good draft hauls, in successive years can accelerate a teams rise markedly.

Astute draft and trading is a mix of knowing when to draft and when to trade respective of where your list is at the time, as the timing of each and combined mix of both, is what sets the better Clubs apart from the perennial also rands.

If a really good draft haul for one year is "kissed on the dick" , what's it called if you have two or 3 really good years in a row?

 

[Jed Clampet]

It's a 'good' deal, it's jut nto an 'overwhelming' deal.

There's no guarantee Reid will end up the generational talent they claim, but it's the Vic media's fault for pumping him up as such.

If Reid ends up like a half forward flank Toby Green I’d be more than happy with that.

 

[Monocle]

If a really good draft haul for one year is "kissed on the dick" , what's it called if you have two or 3 really good years in a row?

That would be a menage a trois.

 

[bzparkes]

If Reid ends up like a half forward flank Toby Green I’d be more than happy with that.

For sure.

Green's a genuine match-winner. It's what you use top picks for.

 

[MaxHunt]

For sure.

Green's a genuine match-winner. It's what you use top picks for.

100%. I'd be wrapped if Reid ends up as good as Greene.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

If Reid ends up like a half forward flank Toby Green I’d be more than happy with that.

He averages 8 clearances a game. There’s no way he’ll be stuck on a flank. He’s too dangerous in the middle

 

[Bacchus]

‘Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth’

meaning if you are given a gift or present don’t be ungrateful or greedy by trying to assess its value.

We have been presented with Harley on a platter, why would we be thinking of trading him?
Would we be thinking of trading Charlie Curnow

35

Charlie Curnow

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

if we had him?

Role players come along all the time, champions/match winners don’t.
Why would we cash in a super talent when he is presented to us?

We don’t have to depend on any other team’s choices, we hold the whip hand, we just have to take him.
It is only us who can stop us getting him.

We can only be enticed or tricked not to make the obvious decision.

If we don’t seize this opportunity now, when is the next chance to take a match winner going to come up?

 

[ROO DOGG]

He averages 8 clearances a game. There’s no way he’ll be stuck on a flank. He’s too dangerous in the middle

That is a very good clearance average since he plays large chunks of games deep forward.

 

[ROO DOGG]

If a really good draft haul for one year is "kissed on the dick" , what's it called if you have two or 3 really good years in a row?

I think our mate deepthroat can answer that.

 

[eaglevision]

Pretty sneaky picturing Cadman then the Eagles and North box on trade day… Tell them all to get f**ked and take Reid.

 

[Bacchus]

Lot of pressure to trade.

We absolutely don’t have to. We have pick one and the choice. The only ones who can take it off us is ourselves.
Let us not be tricked or trick ourselves.

Were we able to pick up Bobby Hill and instead traded down and picked up the two plodders O’Neil and Foley?

 

[ThePuma #9]

I think you will find that there wouldn't be a recruiting team in the competition, that wouldn't gladly take those number, of a 35 % hit rate with second and early third rounder picked players making it.

One in three is about the accepted rates for better drafting.

What does hamper Clubs however, is if they have a run of duds in all their second and third rounders in successive years.

I have long held the belief that one bad draft wont set the Club back to much, two succession bad drafts really hurts and three in
row sets a Club back for five years.

Conversely a "kissed on the dick" draft haul in a particular year, or two good draft hauls, in successive years can accelerate a teams rise markedly.

Astute draft and trading is a mix of knowing when to draft and when to trade respective of where your list is at the time, as the timing of each and combined mix of both, is what sets the better Clubs apart from the perennial also rans.

I agree with all of your sentiments Monocle and as I have stated on a follow up post, my observation wasn’t constructed as a way to have a swipe at our recruiting department.

i was trying to highlight the percentage that the picks we may receive for trading down from pick 1 have of actually making it and my concern that we trade away a potential match winner for a handful of picks that might not even make it.

Harley Reid is most likely not going to be the greatest player ever, he may not even be the best of his draft class. He may hurt himself and have a injury plagued career… so many what ifs and everyone loves pointing them out.

Here’s a few of my what ifs.

What if he’s exactly what we need? What if he does become a superstar and could have transformed our midfield for the next 15 years and we traded him away? What if the players we trade him for in turn don’t make it or have injury plagued careers?

I’m not one for hypotheticals. I prefer calculated risk and measuring that against the potential rewards.

Considering we are in the midst of a lengthy rebuild and one solitary year will not rebound us back up into contention I would like us to consider what we are trading away for what we will get back in return.

Every time I crunch the numbers the safer bet would be to take the known quality. The sure thing if you will.

Last year made sense to split with what we had, who we had to choose from with it, what we could get for it, what we needed and the state of the first round in general.

Unless someone is paying massive overs (two top 5 picks minimum) then it’s not worth us risking our rebuild by splitting pick 1 this year.

This is a marathon, not a sprint.

Take the known quality over the unknown quantity.

 

[ArdentEagle]

Board gurus and anyone else who can BF.

When was the last time we saw a draftee who was so adept in any third of the ground?? Luke Hodge maybe.

Reid really is a Unicorn imo

 

[eaglevision]

Board gurus and anyone else who can BF.

When was the last time we saw a draftee who was so adept in any third of the ground?? Luke Hodge maybe.

Reid really is a Unicorn imo

Exactly. The last #1 pick to win a flag. And he won 4 of them. Bobby Hill, another player in addition to James Rowbottom when we thought we were the smartest blokes in the room and traded down to take XON and Luke Foley. Just take Reid.

Edit: Boyd. Hopefully Rayner is about to be one too.

 

[Monocle]

I agree with all of your sentiments Monocle and as I have stated on a follow up post, my observation wasn’t constructed as a way to have a swipe at our recruiting department.

i was trying to highlight the percentage that the picks we may receive for trading down from pick 1 have of actually making it and my concern that we trade away a potential match winner for a handful of picks that might not even make it.

Harley Reid is most likely not going to be the greatest player ever, he may not even be the best of his draft class. He may hurt himself and have a injury plagued career… so many what ifs and everyone loves pointing them out.

Here’s a few of my what ifs.

What if he’s exactly what we need? What if he does become a superstar and could have transformed our midfield for the next 15 years and we traded him away? What if the players we trade him for in turn don’t make it or have injury plagued careers?

I’m not one for hypotheticals. I prefer calculated risk and measuring that against the potential rewards.

Considering we are in the midst of a lengthy rebuild and one solitary year will not rebound us back up into contention I would like us to consider what we are trading away for what we will get back in return.

Every time I crunch the numbers the safer bet would be to take the known quality. The sure thing if you will.

Last year made sense to split with what we had, who we had to choose from with it, what we could get for it, what we needed and the state of the first round in general.

Unless someone is paying massive overs (two top 5 picks minimum) then it’s not worth us risking our rebuild by splitting pick 1 this year.

This is a marathon, not a sprint.

Take the known quality over the unknown quantity.

Agree TP#9 with what you have said I am firmly in the draft Reid camp.

The Club also needs a positive boost, a pick me up if you will, after several shyte years, I think that Harley Reid would provide such impetus.

Give him the # 9 jumper and the sales & marketing department gets a boner