When is our "window" open?

[Bluebear]

Towards the end of this year I started to think about the age of our list and when we would be a realistic chance of winning a flag.

Over the past few seasons we have heard the term "premiership window" used to describe the period of time when the best players on your list at at their peak.......supposedly between the ages of 24-28 or so.

Based on this I thought I'd take a look at our list, and in particular our best 26 or so players and see when that "window" may actually be open.

Ages as of next season and "in season"

19
Yarran

21
Robinson, Kreuzer, Gibbs, Browne, Austin, Garlett, Joseph, Anderson

22
Grigg, Hampson, Bower, Jacobs

23
Warnock, Russell, Murphy, Betts, Armfield

24
Walker, Johnson, Jamison, McLean

25
Cloke

26
Thornton, Simpson, Carrazzo

27
Waite, O'hAilpin, Judd, Hadley

28
Houlihan

29
Fevola

30
Stevens, Scotland


By this I'd say the bulk of our talent is in the 21-24 yo grouping.

This would suggest to me our window opening in 3 years, and staying open for 3-4 years as that glut of talent moves through.

This isn't to say we can't win a flag in the next 3 years.......we could do a "Hawks" and pinch one, but the probabilities are more likely to be down the track.

By this reckoning, Scotland, Stevens and Fevola will be gone or certainly on the outer, Houlihan not far behind.
Stevo may be gone anyway, Scotty on his form this year may be on the way out, and Fev, well he would still be playing, but with is type of game once he loses a half a yard of pace he will become a very good but not great footballer.

To those that say we can't win a flag without Fev, I'd say we are going to be hard pressed to win one with him anyway based on the maturity of our list.

A forward recruited this year or next will have 2-6 years in the system while our "window is open" which would be a good foil for those already there such as Waite, Austin, O'hAilpin, Cloke......?Tiller.

Any thoughts?

 

[as0l0]

it opened this year but we failed. Strike 1.

 

[Madblue]

If Fev goes then the window is closed......simple as that !

 

[blues4flag]

It's not near as simple as that. It'll mean a different dynamic up forward but who's to say it won't be effective? It'll take time but losing Fev isn't the doom and gloom that some predict.

That said, I'd much prefer we keep him.

 

[AlecDuncan]

it opened this year but we failed. Strike 1.

Correct. It'll be open as long as we have at least one gun key forward. So far we've got just the one, and he's got maybe three years of good football left. It'll take us at least two to three years to replace Fevola whether he stays or goes.

If he's gone this week, then the window's shut for at least three years.

 

[Artie Bucco]

2010 depending on a) if fev goes and b) what we get for him

 

[Juddrockz]

If Fev goes then the window is closed......simple as that !

I tend to agree it will be closed for a few years until our young guys step up.With our current list i cannot see ANY player/players able to step into Fev foot steps an kick 80 goals next year.

 

[bluesforever]

We could still potentially challenge for a flag as soon as next season without Fevola. With whatever we get with the trade plus Waite playing forward we will still be dangerous. Our midfield will be still a force and another year into our backline.

Without Fev we will be forced to use other options which has been a problem for the last few years, we go to Fev far too much.

I still see alot of positives without Fev, but still, would love to keep him.

 

[parrot]

The concept of a"premiership window" doesn't apply to Carlton because it's normally always open at Carlton. The last several years were just an aberration caused by ridiculous draft penalties. If Fev stays we could win flag 17 next year. If he goes it'll be harder, but we'll probably end up with a better list.

 

[Bluebear]

Can't believe I wasted so much time on the OP.



While there are certainly Fev undertones, can we please.....please fot he love of humanity not just turn this into a "Fev" thread.

If you think this thread is just about Fev re-read the op.......get the idea of our core group of talent and their age........

If you think our window was or is open......why?

Making the top 8 doesn't count. You can do that by winning less than half your games.........not exactly window open stuff.

 

[Kramer1]

Correct. It'll be open as long as we have at least one gun key forward. So far we've got just the one, and he's got maybe three years of good football left. It'll take us at least two to three years to replace Fevola whether he stays or goes.

If he's gone this week, then the window's shut for at least three years.

I don't agree. A key power forward like Fevola certainly helps, though not essential for a crack at a flag.

Mooney and Hawkins are hardly the elite of the competition. Collingwood and Western Bulldogs don't have star studded forward lines, yet all were very much in the running this year. Sound defense and midfield pressure hold teams up over the course of a season, and if good enough we will find avenues to goal.

And the club are hardly going compromise our success during the 'Judd years' due to the lack of a forward. If Fev goes I am sure will see something come back the other way that will bolster our forward line.

 

[Bentick's My Man.]

Can't believe I wasted so much time on the OP.



While there are certainly Fev undertones, can we please.....please fot he love of humanity not just turn this into a "Fev" thread.

If you think this thread is just about Fev re-read the op.......get the idea of our core group of talent and their age........

If you think our window was or is open......why?

Making the top 8 doesn't count. You can do that by winning less than half your games.........not exactly window open stuff.

Agree Bluebear... There were only 3 teams in their premiership window this season and I believe the teams in the 8 were seperated in tiers of quality. Tier 1 - Geelong, St. Kilda & W. Bulldogs
Tier 2 - Collingwood, Adelaide
Tier 3 - Brisbane, Carlton & Essendon

Gradual improvement of our squad plus the recruit of McLean should of taken our list up at least one tier in 2010. We cannot discount Fev or the looming trade deal as it is a major point for how our list will go in 2010

Adelaide should improve for one more season before the loss of Goodwin, McLeod, Edwards etc. and Collingwood in my opinion will hold there and abouts neither being a threat to the flag or willing to bottom out.

Hawthorn will have a reasonable crack at the 4 next season and will most likely replace the Pies.

I don't think our window can be set until after trade week all being said, though I will still expect a top 8 finish on just our midfield and improving backline alone.

 

[AlecDuncan]

I don't agree. A key power forward like Fevola certainly helps, though not essential for a crack at a flag.

Name a premier without one.

 

[Kramer1]

Name a premier without one.

I can name any number of premiership teams without a key forward like Fevola. I only need take you back as far as two weeks ago. Mooney and Hawkins are not dominant forwards. They are big bodies that warrant a reasonable defender. Same could be said for Lynch and Hansen in 06, The Adelaide forward lines in 97 and 98 didn't exactly strike fear into opposition hearts.

Im not saying you don't need someone half decent to kick to, you just don't need a star studded forward line to go all of the way.

 

[AlecDuncan]

I can name any number of premiership teams without a key forward like Fevola.

Then you proceed to only name premiers with two power key forwards, so my point stands.

I might go back to 1998 when Adelaide only had the average Robran at CHF, which would mean absolutely no-one has won a premiership without a power key forward in the last two decades.

And that's why our window would be shut without one.

 

[Beagle_Charlie]

Name a premier without one.

West Coast 2006
Geelong 2007, 2009

3 of the last 4 years

 

[HBF]

If Fev goes then the window is closed......simple as that !

Completely disagree with this statement.
Firstly, you have no idea what we will get in compensation.
Secondly, it means that we can re-structure our forward line in a way that we become far less predictable when we get the inside 50
Thirdly, our strength through the midfield will even increase next year, when we add McLean to our best 22.

 

[Bluebear]

West Coast 2006
Geelong 2007, 2009

3 of the last 4 years

Now add the ones who had them, but the did SFA in the GF.

Swans, Hawks, Port............it goes on.

The best defence and midfield win flags.

 

[big_dunk]

I think it will be open when our midfielders are about 24-25

Gibbs Murphy And Kruezer around there

 

[Kramer1]

Then you proceed to only name premiers with two power key forwards, so my point stands.

I might go back to 1998 when Adelaide only had the average Robran at CHF, which would mean absolutely no-one has won a premiership without a power key forward in the last two decades.

And that's why our window would be shut without one.

Well yes Alec, someone has to fill those positions.

I expect it's a tad more difficult to win a flag with no one playing FF or CHF. Going in two men down gives the opposition a rather sporting headstart.

My statements was that you don't need key power forwards to win a flag. We can parry over the definition if you like, but Tom Hawkins or Ash Hansen don't fit the bill for me. By way of example I would consider a pairing of Waite and Kreuzer to be more potent than the Geelong or WCE KPF's from recent premiership teams.

 

[mac25]

Correct. It'll be open as long as we have at least one gun key forward. So far we've got just the one, and he's got maybe three years of good football left. It'll take us at least two to three years to replace Fevola whether he stays or goes.

If he's gone this week, then the window's shut for at least three years.

Agree totally l thought our window may open next year but if Fev goes and the possibility of quality replacements occuring if a trade occurs unlikely, our window will be gone before it even commenced.

Carlton fans are kidding themselves if they think a Waite or Kruezer will be adequate replacements.
It is also interesting this business about having a unpredictable forward half, that will not make our attack any better unless there is some serious quality down there, and right now our list is deprived of real young forward talent on the horizon, Waite is needed down back and Kruezer is our best ruckman by a fair distance.

 

[CrippsonBlue]

For the next 3 years, we will be fighting with the Cats, Saints, Dogs, Hawks, Pies, Crows for a top 4 spot. As the former teams start to drop off, the later teams will become stronger threats. Added to this, teams like the Eagles, Bombers, Melbourne may be thereabouts in 3 years time also. Who knows what other team may surprise, not to mention new teams.

Now that is just for a top 4 spot.

What if Gibbs requests a trade, and Juddy succumbs to injury in 3 years time? (touch wood)

If Fev stays, it will greatly increase our chances, and I think we are good enough to do so in his time if all goes well. I am not trying to turn this into a Fev thread, but I just think it is logical to take our chances when they arise, because we don't know what the future holds, and it'll only get harder with the added teams.

 

[Bluebear]

Agree totally l thought our window may open next year but if Fev goes

So if Fev stays our midfield and defence suddenly become more experienced and gain the run and know how of a side 4 years their senior, but if Fev goes then they lose all that experienced and conditioning?

Is this the jist of the "not if Fev goes" arguement?

Talk some sense people.......please.

Great players struggle for years in shit sides (Pavlich, Richo) and NEVER have their "premiership window" open.

It has to do with not only the ability of the rest of the team, but experience and conditioning........Fev or no Fev we aint there yet.......and won't be for a couple of years.......hence the OP.

 

[Kramer1]

Carlton fans are kidding themselves if they think a Waite or Kruezer will be adequate replacements.

Well how on earth did Geelong win a flag then...cos to a man I am sure we would take Waite and Kreuzer over Hawkins and Mooney at their respective bests.

Of course you need some sort of forward line, and multiple avenues to goal, but a strong defense and midfield will take you a lot further...especially in today's game. Running around as though the sky is falling because we are potentially losing a very good forward is not overly productive. As a surprisingly sage St Kilda supporter noted they shipped the greatest full forward of all time off and made (and should have won) the GF the very next year.

 

[Jeremias]

Now add the ones who had them, but the did SFA in the GF.

Swans, Hawks, Port............it goes on.

The best defence and midfield win flags.

Bingo.

And that's what I've been saying for a little while.

It's all about the midfield.

Teams can win a premiership with shit tall forwards.

Of course there are premiers that have gun key forwards but they are not the key.

If you have a midfield that works for each other and are a fantastic unit, the rest falls in to place.

A Cloke/Waite duo are a good enough key forward duo to win a premiership. Sounds ridiculous, but it's true.

As for our premiership window, it probably starts opening in 2010, only if Fevola stays. 2010-2013 if Fev stays.

If he leaves it closes our window for a while but probably elongates it when it does open. Obviously it depends on what we get back for him but it probably opens a year or 2 later.

Very hard to tell though as anything can happen