When will we turn it around?

[Broken_Chairs]

We've been a dumpster fire for 4.5 years:

• Won 11 of the past 91 games
• Finished bottom 3 in 4 consecutive seasons
• Won 2x spoons
• Won 1 game in 2025, the worst season of any club on record.
• Begged the AFL for an assistance package, and been given one.

But we've also made a heap of positive changes - new CEO, Head Coach, Line Coaches alongside other off-field appointments and systems changes.

So it begs the question - when the **** are we going to turn it around and become successful again??

This off-season seems like a critical point for our future prospects:

• We have picks 1, 2, 13, 34 & 38
• We have some reasonable NGA talent
• We have 4 extra rookie spots
• It’s Mini's first full preseason with the players
• It's Mini's first season with line coaches of his choice.

I've quickly glanced at the list and arbitrarily ranked our players under some categories of my own making…

AFL Quality Players: Players I've seen enough of to be confident that they are/will be AFL standard and can push us to finals. Not all are stars, nor have they necessarily reached their potential yet.

• H Reid ️
• Baker ️
• Graham ️
• Starcevich ️
• Waterman ️
• Ginbey ️
• Hewett ️
• Hough ️
• McCarthy ️
• Shanahan ️
• Drudgen ️
• Cole ️

Maybe AFL Quality: Players that have AFL traits and could become quality enough to drive our next finals push. Some are more progressed/have more potential than others.

• A Reid (looks good)
• Gross (looks good)
• Dewar (looks good)
• Young (looks good)
• Maric (looks good)
• blOwies (looks shit, but has been AFL quality in the past)
• Allan
• Hall
• Grego
• Dev
• Hutch
• HEdwards
• Long
• Brockman
• Brock
• Champion
• Davis

Prob Not: Players that aren't really AFL quality and are unlikely to make it. Might become reasonable role players in a future finals push if all goes well (e.g. Flynn or JWilliams could be serviceable)

• Flynn ️️
• BWilliams ️
• JWilliams ️️
• Newton ️
• Barnett ️
• Bazzo ️
• Rawlingson ️
• Johnston ️

Aging AFL Quality Players: If they can get their bodies and mindset right, they can help us bridge the gap towards being finals capable.

• Yeo
• Kelly
• Cripps

So by my count we have:

• 3-4 top end picks coming in (in or around the top 10)
• 12 of our B22 are AFL Quality
• 17 unknowns, some more promising than others. I'd hope that 5 could come on and at least be solid role players.
• 8 pretty much no-hopers.
• 3 old guns (1-2 years left)

With the new talent coming in, it seems like we have a pretty good foundation for an AFL quality side that should be capable of winning games, rising up the ladder and pushing for finals in the not too distant future - question is, how many more years do we need to wait?

 

[The_Eagles]

I will predict finals in 2028
Top 4 in 2031
One premiership next decade

But it’s highly possible we might be the new Carlton/North/Melbourne of this millennium and be waiting a long time and collecting even more spoons here and there.

 

[Chris_6678]

I thought we delisted Rawlingston.

 

[ioppolo]

2028 we may gain parity with the W/L ratio but that won't be enough for finals anymore. 2029 I'm expecting finals.

 

[Rowan18]

2028. All the draftees from 2021-2025 have had 3 pre-seasons so will be AFL standard (if still on the list). We'll be going hard for trades in 2027 and will be primed for finals.

Not many teams rebuild for more than 5-7 seasons unless they completely stuff up their drafting year after year. I think we've already seen enough green shoots from draftees to know we've got future AFL quality on the list.

 

[Broken_Chairs]

I thought we delisted Rawlingston.

I might be slow & forgetful - at least my rating of "won't make it" was on point

 

[ziad]

The answer is blowin in the wind, the chemistry could click any time. I am glass half full.

 

[Smotie2]

Next year. 5-7 wins

 

[InTheWings]

This pre-season will be Mini's first with his chosen support team. Our young squad will have another pre-season under their belt. We will consolidate the game plan, be fitter and stronger.

Hopefully, with injury luck, we could get back to 6 - 8 wins next year. Then in 2027, maybe 10 - 11 wins?

 

[Astro7]

There appears to be two questions 'when will we turn it around' and 'when will we next push for finals' -
I reckon 2026 is the beginning of the turnaround, we're at the turnstiles and are about to walk through, to win more games than last season obviously. We'll get our first bump up the ladder.
With finals, all going well, possibly 2028-29.

Things could click faster than expected and we still have a bunch of players that could go either way, hopefully more improve than not eg - Gross, Allan, Grego, Brockman, Dewar, Long, Newton, Owies etc. Add on our best 22 players, along with this new group of trade/draft prospects and it feels like the base pieces are all in place, nearly (ruck?).
2026 should be fun, almost exciting compared to our historic all time low - 2025!!!

 

[stallon]

2028 is a very sitting on the fence type option I think.
If things go our way just a little bit i think 2027 is very achievable.

We have shown this year we can compete with good teams for large periods of games, without Yeo, Gov, Waterman, etc.

Add Waterman, add some match fitness to the young players and more talented youngsters to replace the less likely kids.

We have the talent already to be a middle ladder team imo, just an age/maturity thing

 

[Astro7]

2028 is a very sitting on the fence type option I think.
If things go our way just a little bit i think 2027 is very achievable.

We have shown this year we can compete with good teams for large periods of games, without Yeo, Gov, Waterman, etc.

Add Waterman, add some match fitness to the young players and more talented youngsters to replace the less likely kids.

We have the talent already to be a middle ladder team imo, just an age/maturity thing

True enough, wouldn't surprise me, in a glass half full world.

 

[Pwani Magharibi]

I think you've gone early with your call on Newton and that you mean Livingstone rather than Rawlinson, but otherwise agree with your analysis.

Call me overly optimistic but I expect us to be contending for finals in 2027, noting there will be more quality incoming in this draft.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

 

[PremiershipNo4]

7 wins next year
2027 top eight
2030 premiership as per our 12 year cycle
Collingwood and Melbourne to be the sliders next year.

 

[woosha24]

2027 is when I believe we'll start being more consistent in our game and at least have an even chance of winning most fixtures. We should at least be even money against any side not in the Top 8.

2026 is gonna be more of the same as this year, expect I expect us to reduce the losing margin in more games and start pinching a few wins when we're in it deep in the 4th quarter. Best case scenario we finish bottom 4 but not bottom 2.

Finals not until 2029/ 2030.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

Realistically I'm thinking 2026 4 wins, 2027 7 wins, 2028 9 wins, 2029 finals.

 

[Broken_Chairs]

View attachment 2451984

The eagles EMO period is a pretty apt descriptor of the past 4 years tbh

 

[wcns]

Start of the turnaround 2026, knocking on the door of the 8 in 2028, make the 8 in 2029, premiers in 2030.

 

[Cuzz09]

Would need a big turnaround to climb out of the bottom 3 or 4 again.

Who knows, need to just keep improving, stay in games longer and hopefully pinch a couple unexpected.

Good signs were leading a number of teams at half and 3 qtr time so fitness is a big issue as well as just basic talent.

The way Sydney waltzed the ball out the middle in that last qtr of rd23 was sickening and never want to see that again.

gradually improving hopefully... but thought this last year too

2026: 3-4 wins
2027: 5-8 wins
2028: 7-10 wins

 

[Cuzz09]

Also think early wins are so important. Catch a couple of teams off guard early the confidence can grow and the pressure released

If we are winless or only 1 win around the bye it'd suck

 

[Astro7]

Also think early wins are so important. Catch a couple of teams off guard early the confidence can grow and the pressure released

If we are winless or only 1 win around the bye it'd suck

A bit depends on our 2026 fixture, curious to see that.
But I seriously doubt we'd be winless around the bye.
Agree a couple of early wins would do wonders for team confidence.
I don't think you can take much out of our last few games at the back end of 2025, given the state we were in.
If we start off with a fully fit team and all our best players on board, and Mini's first full pre-season with everything he wants in place, I wouldn't be surprised if we exceeded 4 wins in 2026.

 

[CoastersFlag No.5]

This year will be important if we stay in the bottom 2 we aren’t on target for 2029-2030 finals. It’s anyone’s guess when we will get synergy. Could surprise a few this year or get pummelled again. Pure guess work. Shanahan improving or having 2nd year blues? How do pick 1 and 2 go in their first year? Is Yeo fit finally? How does Harley go? Does Dev kick on after doing well in VFL? SO MANY QUESTIONS.

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

I'd have to see the paperwork of the contract Simmo signed when we were 5 goals down in the 2018 Grand Final to be able to say when we'll turn it around.

 

[Selurs]

Also think early wins are so important. Catch a couple of teams off guard early the confidence can grow and the pressure released

If we are winless or only 1 win around the bye it'd suck

This is so true. I remember ages ago (Worsfold era, but no idea if it was pre-or-post meltdown) we beat Port away early in the season and having had a poor finish to the previous season, you could feel the confidence everyone got from that win.

Turned out Port went on to have a really poor year and we just got lucky, but the effect it had on the season was significant.

Our draw this year was really tough for the first two months, so by the time we hit some winnable games, we were mentally out of it. Hopefully next year they don't treat the raining wooden spooners quite so harshly...