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Analysis Where to from here?

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PhatBoy said:
Miers is probably the most interesting case on our list at the moment for me.

there isn’t any skill changes or improvements he has to make imo to become an a grade small forward. He has a good kick. Literally all he has to do is chase more and be more physical. That’s it. Purely a forced attitude change and he can become a really really good player.
Click to expand...
In fairness, I think he got better over 2019 and 2020… it was just this year where he stagnated.

Understandable given the injuries.
 
PhatBoy said:
This is a pretty good point actually in your second last paragraph.

I was looking at the volume of high picks they’ve got that are now guns and thought ‘well good on them for finally getting it right’ but even in that assessment I’m probably over selling the demons a bit because their strike rate isn’t anything special even in getting it right because the law of averages says that with ALL the high picks they had, getting this many that actually turned into something should be about par when you apply the context of all the busts they had
Click to expand...

Good luck to the Demons - they have finally got an outstanding team

But they have been given the world high pick after high pick - priority picks - people only look at the present - oh Melb are fantastic and Geel are hopeless - their are reasons behind that

Thats why ive never bought into to this " Great Club " bulldust - re applying to any club - because all clubs at one point will assemble a top list and win multiple flags - and then their players will get old - and another club will do it
 
I wonder where we’d be if we have put three full-time years into Constable, Fort, Narkle and Clark.

Nothing improves you faster than playing against better players. What does Chook learn from picking up another 40 in the VFL? What does Narkle get out of another 30 and 3 goals? Nothing. They don’t get better, they just rock up, have fun, get frustrated.

If we had put another forty games into all, they wouldn’t necessarily be great - or even very good - but they would be better than they are now. It would have been better to see that than established but limited vets like Bews, Higgins, O’Connor and Stanley having another anonymous game.
 
iameviljez said:
I do find some of those “filler” picks - Crameri, Jack Stevens, Higgins, Jenkins, etc - to be misguided in that when we have backed in our development, we have unearthed some decent players out of really late picks.

Menegola was late, as was Miers. Blicavs, Simpson, Zuthrie, Henry, Atkins and Close were all rookies. Stewart was taken in the forties. I know Stewart is the only star out of that lot, but if asked to choose between a serviceable kid and a serviceable veteran, take the kid every time.
Click to expand...

Menegola reminds me of Sean Simpson ( who came to Geel after being delisted by Stk ) they will play some very good football at times no question about it - but then there will be other games or passages of play ( like Menengola on Frid night ) where you think to yourself - i can see why their original club delisted them
 

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Goggin Our Best said:
They have to start playing young players

Crameri ( the ex Donn/ WB ) when he joined - he said it was the Cats or nothing - no other club showed any interest in him at all

He would have played 8-10 games for Geel - just a total waste - why not play a younger player

Watched First Crack last night - that 3rd qtr Melb just ripped the ball out of the centre - they have got youth ( and also to be fair they have had a hell of alot of high draft picks - plus all the burnt ones - Trengove - Scully - Watts - so it is about blooody time they came good as a team )

But Geel have to try some youth with a bit of run - sick of watching these slow half broken down crocks
Click to expand...

Yep both the Dogs and the Dees have a lot of early picks compared to us and have burnt a few... but without those early picks I doubt they are playing in the GF. Perhaps instead of trying to find the late R1 pick slipper..we should have traded up at some stage. No certainty as we see every year but its hard to win without them. I suspect Haw know what it takes... when its time they drop think a lead sinker ..and are probably trade out players to add to their draft hand.

We do not have any FSons coming thru to cover the lack of high ended picks ... and the Dogs will have added two in two years after this draft. Those two clubs will only get better and 2 or 4 other clubs are coming. We must roll it back. It has not worked IF as the new Pres says..Premierships is the defining measurement.
 
Goggin Our Best said:
Menegola reminds me of Sean Simpson ( who came to Geel after being delisted by Stk ) they will play some very good football at times no question about it - but then there will be other games or passages of play ( like Menengola on Frid night ) where you think to yourself - i can see why their original club delisted them
Click to expand...
Yep. He is a really good Grigg type winger IMO. Run all day, physically strong, long and accurate kick. His major failing is that he is a bit of a two-grab player.
 
iameviljez said:
I know it’s only able to be enjoyed in the light of 2007, but my favourite year in following footy was actually 2004.
Click to expand...

2004 was the only year where a loss at the end still gave me such hope. I still remember, after the 2004 prelim, walking across one of the Yarra St bridges back to the car and saying to my mate how I couldn't wait for the next season to start. After crappy 2001, 2002, 2003 seasons and with the 90's goal kicking machine a fading memory, that 2004 season was so rejuvenating.
 
stevothedevo said:
2004 was the only year where a loss at the end still gave me such hope. I still remember, after the 2004 prelim, walking across one of the Yarra St bridges back to the car and saying to my mate how I couldn't wait for the next season to start. After crappy 2001, 2002, 2003 seasons and with the 90's goal kicking machine a fading memory, that 2004 season was so rejuvenating.
Click to expand...
With Charlie Gardiner playing as superweapon in the third tall forward role…
 
Goggin Our Best said:
Thats why ive never bought into to this " Great Club " bulldust - re applying to any club - because all clubs at one point will assemble a top list and win multiple flags - and then their players will get old - and another club will do it
Click to expand...

Yeah but we're keeping them old aren't we. We've traded for old timers to defy the trend and it hasn't worked.
 
iameviljez said:
I wonder where we’d be if we have put three full-time years into Constable, Fort, Narkle and Clark.

Nothing improves you faster than playing against better players. What does Chook learn from picking up another 40 in the VFL? What does Narkle get out of another 30 and 3 goals? Nothing. They don’t get better, they just rock up, have fun, get frustrated.

If we had put another forty games into all, they wouldn’t necessarily be great - or even very good - but they would be better than they are now. It would have been better to see that than established but limited vets like Bews, Higgins, O’Connor and Stanley having another anonymous game.
Click to expand...
Fort's like 28 years old. If he hasn't made it by now, he never will.
 

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iameviljez said:
I just meant as in we were very close to a flag, that’s all.

I guess the broader point I am making is that we did fail, but we were not wrong to try.
Click to expand...

absolutely had to try!
You don’t walk away after being runners up
 
Pretty critical article here. Bolded points are some of the main discussion points brought up on this board for reference.

www.foxsports.com.au

Excuse that doesn’t hold up in lost decade; how off-field moves ‘moulded’ contender: Talking Pts

Excuse that doesn’t hold up in lost decade; how off-field moves ‘moulded’ contender: Talking Pts
www.foxsports.com.au www.foxsports.com.au


CATS’ EXCUSE DOESN’T HOLD UP AFTER LOST DECADE

Success isn’t binary; it’s completely unfair to say that every year, 17 teams fail because they don’t win the premiership, and clubs don’t think that way.

But year after year for Geelong, the script goes the same way. They’re good... but not good enough. They’re a contender... but not right at the end.

And it has now amounted to a lost decade.

While the 2011 flag still flies high above Kardinia Park, the Cats have officially gone a full 10 years without claiming one, despite constantly being ever-so-close to ultimate glory.

It’s felt frustrating for Geelong fans, and sports statistician Insight Lane has shown just how frustrated they should be.

Just twice in VFL-AFL history has a team won a larger percentage of home and away games in a decade than Geelong from 2012-21 without winning a flag.




The first was Carlton (1927-36), who won 73.6 per cent of their games but made just one Grand Final, losing to Richmond in 1932. Those Blues had to deal with the Collingwood ‘machine’, who between 1927-30 were the only club to win four flags in a row.

The second was Collingwood (1964-73), winning 71.8 per cent of their games. Losing three Grand Finals, they had to deal with an era featuring the end of Melbourne’s legendary decade-long run, St Kilda claiming its only flag by a solitary point in 1966, and Carlton’s late 60s/early 70s dynasty which saw three flags and five Grand Finals in six years.

Then there’s Geelong (2012-21), the only team close with a winning percentage of 70.6 - the next-best flagless decade belongs to the recent vintage St Kilda (2003-12), at a win rate of 63.4 per cent.

That’s right; those brilliant Saints, who came so close in 2010 - and even in 2009 - won many fewer games than these recent Cats.

Yes, the Cats had to deal with two great modern dynasties, Hawthorn (2013-15) and Richmond (2017-20). Yes, they led the Tigers at halftime of the Grand Final last year.

But from six preliminary finals, where teams are almost always evenly matched, you’d expect a better strike rate than one-from-six.

After each of those preliminary final losses, Chris Scott’s press conferences have felt like the same thing. He talks about not wanting to buy into the narrative that it’s a trend, and about the team now is different than it was a few years ago.

To be fair, he’s right about the latter bit. The players are different; it’s just that the results aren’t.

And most times it feels as if the Cats wilt under the pressure of September, trying to play defensively with the ball in hand - which works so well against bottom-10 teams during the year, but not in the finals.

And it always feels like they start poorly, too. In four of the past six seasons, the Cats have trailed by four goals or more at quarter-time of a cut-throat final.

There was one part of Scott’s press conference this year that needs to be examined, though; when he questioned the idea that the Cats need more youth in the side.

With four youngsters good chances of leaving the club, and 11 players over 30 in the side on Friday night, it feels as if the balance has gotten out of whack. Scott disagreed.


Let’s say Geelong hadn’t brought in Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins last year. Are they that much worse with Jordan Clark (11 games in 2021) and Charlie Constable (three games) in their places? Are they even worse at all by the end of the year, once Clark and Constable gain more AFL-level experience?

Higgins cost them Pick 30, remember. The Cats drafted Tom Stewart with Pick 40 a few years back, and Tim Kelly with Pick 24; you can find very good young talent at that price.

We’re not saying players like Higgins, Smith, Gary Rohan and Lachie Henderson weren’t valuable contributors. But does Scott truly believe that without them, the Cats would be one of the worst teams in the AFL? That seems absurd.

Don’t take this as if we’re picking on anyone in particular. No one person, player or coach cost them the prelim against the Melbourne; but all of these decisions, and Scott’s words on Friday night, go to a general strategy.

A strategy that, in the end, hasn’t worked.
 

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iameviljez said:
Admittedly it was within an hour of a flag.
Click to expand...
In a compromised season. Where there was a lengthy game between Rd 1 (where we got belted) and Rd 2. In a season that had 17 games. In a season that had significantly shorter quarters.

This list had one chance of a flag under unusual circumstances, it was last year and they lost.

This year is like 2016, or 2017, or 2018, or 2019. You have to have a balance of young kids, guys in the 24/25/26/27 age bracket, and a few guys in the 29/30/31 bracket with the odd mid 30s outlier.

Now look at the age breakdown of the team on Friday. Melbournes key mids were all 24/25/26/27. Ditto the dogs. Ditto the Paer + Boak. We were all in on 29+. Even with Parfitt in, Atkins is 25 but was at a handful of stoppages. Our age distribution in the squad is a ****ing mess.

Surely you take a punt on a 24 or 25 year old in the WAFL over an old and largely unsuccessful Higgins. Especially since he offered little all season to justify his recruitment.
 
We finally might start to see a change to the coaching panel
 
someday-somehow said:
lol, an hour from a flag!. We are measuring it in time now are we?. So we were 2 hours from a grand final on Friday night...ooooh so close.
Click to expand...

We led comfortably at half time in a grand final.

I think the idea that last year was just a failure from start to finish because after showing up and making our mark in the last match of the season we were shut down by a great finals player and team, is a little far fetched and Iameviljez pointing out that our approach almost worked is fair, don’t you?
 
Knights down, how many more to go?

Do we actually necessarily need a clean out - or would you feel at least a bit happier if the club/coach openly said "We need to have a massive review. Expect 22 to be markedly different."
 
STPer18 said:
Pretty critical article here. Bolded points are some of the main discussion points brought up on this board for reference.

www.foxsports.com.au

Excuse that doesn’t hold up in lost decade; how off-field moves ‘moulded’ contender: Talking Pts

Excuse that doesn’t hold up in lost decade; how off-field moves ‘moulded’ contender: Talking Pts
www.foxsports.com.au www.foxsports.com.au


CATS’ EXCUSE DOESN’T HOLD UP AFTER LOST DECADE

Success isn’t binary; it’s completely unfair to say that every year, 17 teams fail because they don’t win the premiership, and clubs don’t think that way.

But year after year for Geelong, the script goes the same way. They’re good... but not good enough. They’re a contender... but not right at the end.

And it has now amounted to a lost decade.

While the 2011 flag still flies high above Kardinia Park, the Cats have officially gone a full 10 years without claiming one, despite constantly being ever-so-close to ultimate glory.

It’s felt frustrating for Geelong fans, and sports statistician Insight Lane has shown just how frustrated they should be.

Just twice in VFL-AFL history has a team won a larger percentage of home and away games in a decade than Geelong from 2012-21 without winning a flag.




The first was Carlton (1927-36), who won 73.6 per cent of their games but made just one Grand Final, losing to Richmond in 1932. Those Blues had to deal with the Collingwood ‘machine’, who between 1927-30 were the only club to win four flags in a row.

The second was Collingwood (1964-73), winning 71.8 per cent of their games. Losing three Grand Finals, they had to deal with an era featuring the end of Melbourne’s legendary decade-long run, St Kilda claiming its only flag by a solitary point in 1966, and Carlton’s late 60s/early 70s dynasty which saw three flags and five Grand Finals in six years.

Then there’s Geelong (2012-21), the only team close with a winning percentage of 70.6 - the next-best flagless decade belongs to the recent vintage St Kilda (2003-12), at a win rate of 63.4 per cent.

That’s right; those brilliant Saints, who came so close in 2010 - and even in 2009 - won many fewer games than these recent Cats.

Yes, the Cats had to deal with two great modern dynasties, Hawthorn (2013-15) and Richmond (2017-20). Yes, they led the Tigers at halftime of the Grand Final last year.

But from six preliminary finals, where teams are almost always evenly matched, you’d expect a better strike rate than one-from-six.

After each of those preliminary final losses, Chris Scott’s press conferences have felt like the same thing. He talks about not wanting to buy into the narrative that it’s a trend, and about the team now is different than it was a few years ago.

To be fair, he’s right about the latter bit. The players are different; it’s just that the results aren’t.

And most times it feels as if the Cats wilt under the pressure of September, trying to play defensively with the ball in hand - which works so well against bottom-10 teams during the year, but not in the finals.

And it always feels like they start poorly, too. In four of the past six seasons, the Cats have trailed by four goals or more at quarter-time of a cut-throat final.

There was one part of Scott’s press conference this year that needs to be examined, though; when he questioned the idea that the Cats need more youth in the side.

With four youngsters good chances of leaving the club, and 11 players over 30 in the side on Friday night, it feels as if the balance has gotten out of whack. Scott disagreed.


Let’s say Geelong hadn’t brought in Isaac Smith and Shaun Higgins last year. Are they that much worse with Jordan Clark (11 games in 2021) and Charlie Constable (three games) in their places? Are they even worse at all by the end of the year, once Clark and Constable gain more AFL-level experience?

Higgins cost them Pick 30, remember. The Cats drafted Tom Stewart with Pick 40 a few years back, and Tim Kelly with Pick 24; you can find very good young talent at that price.

We’re not saying players like Higgins, Smith, Gary Rohan and Lachie Henderson weren’t valuable contributors. But does Scott truly believe that without them, the Cats would be one of the worst teams in the AFL? That seems absurd.

Don’t take this as if we’re picking on anyone in particular. No one person, player or coach cost them the prelim against the Melbourne; but all of these decisions, and Scott’s words on Friday night, go to a general strategy.

A strategy that, in the end, hasn’t worked.
Click to expand...


Some good points in that article.

the part I most agree with was ‘would we be THAT much worse with player x in the team instead of player y.’

well I watched him for about five minutes but I don’t think we’d lose much on rohan if we played Evans instead. Not the same kind of player necessarily but as an alternative route to goal from Hawkins and Cameron he would have provided something.

also playing Zac Guthrie more, playing Henderson less, and giving Henry the responsibility of the opposition’s main target - I don’t see how that would have been significantly worse than relying on the admirable but now cactus Henderson every week. narkle instead of Higgins likewise
 
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