Analysis Which clubs deserve a priority pick?

[Beer n Skittles]

Who are the 6 top 3 picks?
Murphy, Thomas (priority pick for Collingwood), Kreuzer, Weitering, Dow, who am I missing?

 

[LeppaMessiah]

For the majority of the year a lot of Carlton supporters were claiming they would still take their list as one of the best young groups in the comp and in the not too distant future they would be a scary proposition, injuries just killed them this year. Now the year is pretty much over there is talk of a priority pick? What happened to being stacked with young guns who just needed a bit more time? Was it injuries to key players that allowed Carltons season to unfold like this or do they have a crap list? If it is the latter then maybe they deserve an end of first round priority pick.

 

[Carl]

Who are the 6 top 3 picks?
Murphy, Thomas (priority pick for Collingwood), Kreuzer, Weitering, Dow, who am I missing?

Plowman

 

[Carl]

For the majority of the year a lot of Carlton supporters were claiming they would still take their list as one of the best young groups in the comp and in the not too distant future they would be a scary proposition, injuries just killed them this year. Now the year is pretty much over there is talk of a priority pick? What happened to being stacked with young guns who just needed a bit more time? Was it injuries to key players that allowed Carltons season to unfold like this or do they have a crap list? If it is the latter then maybe they deserve an end of first round priority pick.

Just like Brisbane we are a bottom 3 team on output. This year we were always going to be at the bottom due to Gibbs leaving and Docherty getting injured. 2 of our best 5 players gone. You take Beams and Zorko out of your team and your 5 wins would drop to 2.

The reason for wanting a PP is pretty simple. WE WON 2 GAMES. Is that so hard to understand? Being a Brisbane supporter i would have thought you got it.

Just like Brisbane and Gold Coast the biggest and quickest improvement on the field will be when the young players play better football. There is no quick fix but to get AFL games into the young players and hope they get better. The more young quality players (PP) you have the more chance of improving.

 

[My name geoff]

Personally, I'd be happy for your club to reject a PP, but I tried to park the inevitable personal biases for the duration of my thinking when writing earlier.

Wasn't even an option for us in the compromised drafts of 2011-2012 where for two inglorious years we were every bit as bad as you are now. Tough luck for us, but past inconsistencies, in different environments, ought to have little bearing on what would be right "for the game" now.

Still doesn’t change the fact that your point was wrong..

I was referring to port of the past two years as the team with questionable recruiting by the way.

As for 2011-12 Port had the advantage of Demetreiou and the AFL coming to the rescue for Port as the AFL couldn’t have an empty, new Adelaide Oval with the deal Port was on.

Carlton is in the opposite scenario as we are at the foot of the table having won only two games this year, yet still have higher attendances than Port who were aiming for a flag until a few weeks ago. Unfortunately we won’t have the same synthetic assistance Port had for this reason moreso than any other.

 

[My name geoff]

For the majority of the year a lot of Carlton supporters were claiming they would still take their list as one of the best young groups in the comp and in the not too distant future they would be a scary proposition, injuries just killed them this year. Now the year is pretty much over there is talk of a priority pick? What happened to being stacked with young guns who just needed a bit more time? Was it injuries to key players that allowed Carltons season to unfold like this or do they have a crap list? If it is the latter then maybe they deserve an end of first round priority pick.

Most Carlton fans aren’t arguing for a priority pick though..

 

[LeppaMessiah]

Most Carlton fans aren’t arguing for a priority pick though..

Good, I hope it stays that way and your supporters don't start thinking you should get a priority pick just because a lot of your potential young guns were injured this year. I think you have great youth and a year without the injuries would prove that, hence why I don't believe you should be granted a priority pick.

 

[LeppaMessiah]

Just like Brisbane we are a bottom 3 team on output. This year we were always going to be at the bottom due to Gibbs leaving and Docherty getting injured. 2 of our best 5 players gone. You take Beams and Zorko out of your team and your 5 wins would drop to 2.

The reason for wanting a PP is pretty simple. WE WON 2 GAMES. Is that so hard to understand? Being a Brisbane supporter i would have thought you got it.

Just like Brisbane and Gold Coast the biggest and quickest improvement on the field will be when the young players play better football. There is no quick fix but to get AFL games into the young players and hope they get better. The more young quality players (PP) you have the more chance of improving.

But I believe the reason you won two games is on the back of a massive injury list when you were already a bottom team. Without the injuries (hopefully next year) you wouldn't be a two win team, so why do you need one? Is your list actually that bad? I don't think so. You don't get PP's for having a lot of injuries, you get them for having a list bereft of talent.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Who are the 6 top 3 picks?
Murphy, Thomas (priority pick for Collingwood), Kreuzer, Weitering, Dow, who am I missing?

Plowman

Sorry... already answered

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Why? They clearly have enough talent already. Obviously there are many other issues at play with Carlton that need to be addressed first as just throwing priority picks at them is a waste of time

So you've counted high draft picks that came to us from other clubs as though they have maintained that ranking.

You say you have analysed the table in depth and determined there might be other issues at Carlton that a PP won't fix.

I wish people would listen to what the club have been saying all year, which has been echoed by our supporters on BigFooty. We lack a balanced age profile. We have very few decent players in the 24-28 year old range. We have few decent players above 24 in general for that matter.

Yes, we traded some out because most of them wanted out anyway and they were our only currency to rebuild our team via the draft. We have added a huge amount of youth in a short period of time and it is going to take time for them to come into their own. We can possibly fast track that by adding quality experienced players here and there, so the likes of Dow or Fisher don't have to be our second most checked midfielders in their 1st and 2nd seasons.

We have changed a heap in our football department, in terms of recruiting staff and development coaches. The personnel we have now were put in place to start the rebuild, and are not to blame for how we got into the position to have to undertake some a brutal rebuild. The problems were there, they have been addressed.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

So you've counted high draft picks that came to us from other clubs as though they have maintained that ranking.

You say you have analysed the table in depth and determined there might be other issues at Carlton that a PP won't fix.

I wish people would listen to what the club have been saying all year, which has been echoed by our supporters on BigFooty. We lack a balanced age profile. We have very few decent players in the 24-28 year old range. We have few decent players above 24 in general for that matter.

Yes, we traded some out because most of them wanted out anyway and they were our only currency to rebuild our team via the draft. We have added a huge amount of youth in a short period of time and it is going to take time for them to come into their own. We can possibly fast track that by adding quality experienced players here and there, so the likes of Dow or Fisher don't have to be our second most checked midfielders in their 1st and 2nd seasons.

We have changed a heap in our football department, in terms of recruiting staff and development coaches. The personnel we have now were put in place to start the rebuild, and are not to blame for how we got into the position to have to undertake some a brutal rebuild. The problems were there, they have been addressed.

In response to your first point, i have done exactly the same for all other clubs in an attempt to have an objective comparison.

Your age profile is certainly an issue not doubt, though a priority pick is not going to address that.

I think many problems still exist. Most concerning was how quickly and easily you were beaten by other bottom 4 teams.

Often there was very little resistance shown.

You had some key injuries which didn't help but most other teams have too.

From an outsider point of view there are a lot of very worrying signs. Sure the new administration has inherited a lot of issues but there wasn't a lot this season that they could hang their hat on so the jury is still well and truly out on them.

I don't mean to be critical or pot your team in a trolling sense. I want to see your team improving for their supporters.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

In response to your first point, i have done exactly the same for all other clubs in an attempt to have an objective comparison.

Your age profile is certainly an issue not doubt, though a priority pick is not going to address that.

I think many problems still exist. Most concerning was how quickly and easily you were beaten by other bottom 4 teams.

Often there was very little resistance shown.

You had some key injuries which didn't help but most other teams have too.

From an outsider point of view there are a lot of very worrying signs. Sure the new administration has inherited a lot of issues but there wasn't a lot this season that they could hang their hat on so the jury is still well and truly out on them.

I don't mean to be critical or pot your team in a trolling sense. I want to see your team improving for their supporters.

In pretty much every case, those other bottom four clubs had far more quality in that 24 and over group. About the only time we didn't have that excuse was against Freo a couple of weeks ago.

A PP may address that age profile problem a little IF we trade it.

 

[pugsville]

In pretty much every case, those other bottom four clubs had far more quality in that 24 and over group. About the only time we didn't have that excuse was against Freo a couple of weeks ago.

A PP may address that age profile problem a little IF we trade it.

It a list profile that Carlton have created. Carlton have chosen to be pathetic.

No sympathy it's situation of their own making.

 

[Procrastinator35]

No....Let em both suffer in their jocks.

Build a culture first, then results will follow by developing your own kids......It's called backing your recruiters & your systems in.

No more hand-outs for incompetence.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

It a list profile that Carlton have created. Carlton have chosen to be pathetic.

No sympathy it's situation of their own making.

I couldn't care less what you think of us.

Fact is, we drafted poorly and we developed poorly for a long time. We also went for the magic Malthouse option. Many people in and around the club weren't thrilled with this situation.

When you say Carlton created the situation, are we talking Carlton the institution, the supporters, the walls of the clubhouse, the Princes Park turf? Are we talking people that are no longer there making the decisions? Have we addressed those decision makers? Is this a perpetual blame we all must share forevermore?

Every single club that fails does so because of decisions they made somewhere along the way. The AFL can't afford to have such an imbalance at the bottom. The only question is, can they afford to wait for our young players to mature, and will those young players want to wait?

 

[Groin guru]

I think the Suns need help. Similar to how the AFL stepped in at Brisbane and did something to fix their culture behind the scenes. If they don't fix that team up soon there might be nothing left and the AFL will be forced to stop the bleeding.

I don't think Carlton deserve one. The talent is there...just not sure why it isn't developing. I think they are in a better position (list wise) than they were a few seasons ago so patience may be needed.

 

[Davo-27]

It doesnt matter if they get a priority pick, their clubs are so poorly run it will just turn a kid with star potential into another average plodder...... fix their clubs, dont focus so much on young talent...

the formula to being a successful team is gather around 30 AFL standard talent, get a good fitness(training team) trainer, employ a coach that has some fire in his belly and isnt a push over, have mature older players who can still contribute and add leadership and examples for the younger guys to follow.

at the moment Carlton/GCS have less than 20 quality players each, they dont seem to run out the games or year very well, so lack of fitness, the coaches dont have a good grasp of what system they want to play yet, neither team has leaders, maybe 1-2 but they arent respected by their peers so their leadership isnt carrying much weight...

 

[Tushay]

It doesnt matter if they get a priority pick, their clubs are so poorly run it will just turn a kid with star potential into another average plodder...... fix their clubs, dont focus so much on young talent...

the formula to being a successful team is gather around 30 AFL standard talent, get a good fitness(training team) trainer, employ a coach that has some fire in his belly and isnt a push over, have mature older players who can still contribute and add leadership and examples for the younger guys to follow.

at the moment Carlton/GCS have less than 20 quality players each, they dont seem to run out the games or year very well, so lack of fitness, the coaches dont have a good grasp of what system they want to play yet, neither team has leaders, maybe 1-2 but they arent respected by their peers so their leadership isnt carrying much weight...

See what Brereton says about Carlton. He might be someone you respect, and he's got a bit more cred on the subject than you.

 

[Davo-27]

See what Brereton says about Carlton. He might be someone you respect, and he's got a bit more cred on the subject than you.

Brereton is an idiot, has been an embarrassment since he retired, great player, pee brain.... using him as an example isnt the best idea.

 

[pugsville]

Gold coast I would rather see a long term plan than the short term fix of priority picks. Maybe something in regards the academy.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Brereton is an idiot, has been an embarrassment since he retired, great player, pee brain.... using him as an example isnt the best idea.

Discrediting the messenger is an age old tactic. The thing is though, you have to be able to provide your own analysis that stands up to scrutiny.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Gold coast I would rather see a long term plan than the short term fix of priority picks. Maybe something in regards the academy.

Gold Coast have essentially become a feeder club to all the other AFL clubs....they're being picked-off year after year, like vultures all over a carcass.

And GWS aren't faring a whole lot better on that front either.

 

[Davo-27]

Discrediting the messenger is an age old tactic. The thing is though, you have to be able to provide your own analysis that stands up to scrutiny.

so Brereton said you have some serious talent on your list and your rebuilding is the right way to go

well he is right, you have a few good youngsters and rebuilding a list is the obvious choice, but where he is wrong is you dont have enough good players at your club and you have little to no leadership

if you have between 15-20 AFL quality players you end up in the bottom 6, if you have between 20-25 AFL quality players your team tends to be around mid table and if you have between 25-30 AFL quality players you tend to be top 6 or thereabouts, depending on coach and stability, but it works out like this very often.

also you need leaders at a club, just having all youth will mean that the club is rudderless and the kids wont develop properly and they will fall into traps, like drugs, womanising ect, the youth need good role models and those are the leaders at your club, so trade, buy, do what you can to find elder and mature people to help your club is my recommendation, its essential.

so where are Carlton atm? well this is the group of AFL quality talent you have imo - Murphy, Simpson, Kennedy, Kreuzer, Cripps, Docherty, Plowman, Marchbank, Fisher, C.Curnow, Pickett, Thomas, Casboult, with some young talent showing some promise in, Silvagni, Dow, O'Brien, Petrevski-Seton, Lang, Weitering (im being generous with some of these guys)

other than Simpson and maybe Murphy theres a clear lack of leadership, i would dare say only Simpson really provides leadership, but im not sure, it just doesnt seem like you have many warriors or strong leaders from an outsiders perspective, so even if all your youth makes it as AFL talent that gives you 19 players, congrats you're still in the bottom 6 range, so how do you fix this? drafting and trading and attracting FA, also you will lose some of the 19 you have now so you have to find replacements for those, the problem you have is you have a lot of list cloggers, guys that you are forced to play in key positions that arent any better than VFL players, in some cases worse, this is hurting you and a problem you need to fix sooner than later, this isnt a 1 year fix, you will lose Kreuzer, Murphy, Simpson, Thomas and Casboult before you get better so theres another 5 spots back, so what you have 14 players going into the future with atm? and the draft is no guarantee if you dont recruit really really well and not with a round 1 pick, which is usually easy, you need to land quality with your round 4 and 5 picks and rookie picks to make your VFL team competitive, unlike the last few years.

all in all you have a long way to go if you have quality people, if Judd can repay you as a board member or in the admin he might be a saviour and if Silvagni can do well in the drafts he will also help rebuild? we'll see if they have the balls to make the decisions and do the things required...

 

[whatwhatsaywhat]

melbourne in 2012 and 2013 were far worse than either carlton or gc17 have been this year, and they applied both years and did not get priority picks

i certainly didn't think brisbane was particularly deserving last year, and don't think the current cellar dwellers are either

you can see that both clubs have serious talent; it's a matter of developing and coaching them, not of relying upon high-end talent coming in as a panacea

 

[Carl]

so Brereton said you have some serious talent on your list and your rebuilding is the right way to go

well he is right, you have a few good youngsters and rebuilding a list is the obvious choice, but where he is wrong is you dont have enough good players at your club and you have little to no leadership

if you have between 15-20 AFL quality players you end up in the bottom 6, if you have between 20-25 AFL quality players your team tends to be around mid table and if you have between 25-30 AFL quality players you tend to be top 6 or thereabouts, depending on coach and stability, but it works out like this very often.

also you need leaders at a club, just having all youth will mean that the club is rudderless and the kids wont develop properly and they will fall into traps, like drugs, womanising ect, the youth need good role models and those are the leaders at your club

so where are Carlton atm? well this is the group of AFL quality talent you have imo - Murphy, Simpson, Kennedy, Kreuzer, Cripps, Docherty, Plowman, Marchbank, Fisher, C.Curnow, Pickett, Thomas, Casboult, with some young talent showing some promise in, Silvagni, Dow, O'Brien, Petrevski-Seton, Lang, Weitering (im being generous with some of these guys)

other than Simpson and maybe Murphy theres a clear lack of leadership, i would dare say only Simpson really provides leadership, but im not sure, it just doesnt seem like you have many warriors or strong leaders from an outsiders perspective, so even if all your youth makes it as AFL talent that gives you 19 players, congrats you're still in the bottom 6 range, so how do you fix this? drafting and trading and attracting FA, also you will lose some of the 19 you have now so you have to find replacements for those, the problem you have is you have a lot of list cloggers, guys that you are forced to play in key positions that arent any better than VFL players, in some cases worse, this is hurting you and a problem you need to fix sooner than later, this isnt a 1 year fix, you will lose Kreuzer, Murphy, Simpson, Thomas and Casboult before you get better so theres another 5 spots back, so what you have 14 players going into the future with atm? and the draft is no guarantee if you dont recruit really really well and not with a round 1 pick, which is usually easy, you need to land quality with your round 4 and 5 picks and rookie picks to make your VFL team competitive, unlike the last few years.

all in all you have a long way to go if you have quality people, if Judd can repay you as a board member or in the admin he might be a saviour and if Silvagni can do well in the drafts he will also help rebuild? we'll see if they have the balls to make the decisions and do the things required...

So what your saying in a nut shell is we need better players? I would never have guessed that. Let me ring SOS all our problems are solved.