I didn't realise so many players were eligible for the mid-season draft.
Mid-Season Rookie Draft explained
A guide to the rules surrounding the AFL's Mid-Season Rookie Draft with the Eagles set to take the No.1 pick on Wednesday evening
Strategy Who are the moneyball players we should look closer at.
- Thread starter ArdentEagle
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I didn't realise so many players were eligible for the mid-season draft.
WCEConnor23
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Dow is harder at the footy.
Moneyball players we should consider:
Marcus Bontempelli
Christian Petracca
Charlie Curnow
Charlie Cameron
Toby Greene
Marcus Bontempelli
Christian Petracca
Charlie Curnow
Charlie Cameron
Toby Greene
Feel Long was a Moneyball pick in the sense everyone probably overlooked him cos he's a short midfielder but we cottoned on to the fact he showed something as a small forward.
- Jun 7, 2015
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If we're looking to bring West Australians home I'd love him and Zurhaar up forward for us. A couple of aggro young dudes who can kick goals and menace anyone who tries to intimidate our kids would be gold.
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If he was interested, what would he cost?
Early 2nd rounder? Port would ask for a pick in the teens (absolutely wouldn't pay that).
Contracted til 2025. Wouldn't be cheap.
Certainly not a moneyball situation.
Expected us to draft SPP instead of DV.
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For those that missed it elsewhere.
TL;DR
Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
Paddy Dow (Carlton)
Dylan Stephens (Sydney)
Harry Perryman (GWS)
Hunter Clark (St Kilda)
Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
So what does 2023 present for us?
Model 1. Accelerated Development
If you recall, this filter is based upon the following means:
- Top 150 before the year the player turns 21
- Top 100 before the year the player turns 22
- Top 50 before the year the player turns 24
- Top 20 before the year the player turns 25
Pretty much a who's who, of the Rising Star from the last few years. Next.
Model 2. AI Predicted Improvement
Two sets of figures, one positive and the other negative.
Positive figures align with stoppage midfielders, higher values indicate greater potential. Above +4 gives a greater than 80% probability over the past 15 years of becoming an elite top 20 midfielder. Figures above +8 all but guarantee development of super-elite talent.
Negative figures are somewhat more nebulous – perhaps the best fit to describe it would be ‘stoppage-to-stoppage capacity’, lower values indicate greater potential. Figures below -1 appear to signal ability to transition to a more stoppage-focused role. Below -4 all but guarantees development of super-elite talent.
Hold the phone. Ginbey and Hewett both displaying +3 figures.
Model 3. Looking for Opportunity
Taking the data of Yeo in 2017 and giving it to an AI as a template to build a model around, to identify similar players waiting for a greater midfield opportunity.
A couple of repeat offenders here. H.Clark was flagged on this indicator for 2020 and H.Perryman has now appeared for the last three consecutive seasons. Make of that what you will.
Model 4. Early Identification
Taking the data of Yeo in 2014, and of other players prior to their initial breakout seasons – to forecast the next generation of stars under development.
Ginbey and Hewett named again, along with 25 other first round draft picks in this list of 40.
Model 5. Stoppage Potential
In addition to these, a fifth model has been added to improve identification of latent potential within the lower ranks. Here the AI was trained towards clearance dominance, identifying players with traits that align with those of elite clearance winners during the early stages of their careers.
Interestingly enough, the result was once again a dual output.
A first group, "Group A" composed of inside-dominant players who are likely to increase overall output as aerobic capacity improves.
And a second, "Group B" composed of players with the indicators of being productive around stoppage, but given little opportunity.
Well isn't that something - of the 14 players identified, FIVE are from West Coast.
Certainly came as a surprise to myself to see Trew, Petruccelle and L.Edwards listed here.
Targets 2023.
So, what are the best options in the data this year? Once again, maintaining a modicum of reality, what are some of the other opportunities out there to improve our fortunes in the midfield that are potentially workable?
If we take our identified shortlist of talent and add home state and contractual status to it, we find several candidates as possible targets:
Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
185cm, 85kg, 30/6/2001 (22 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2023
Yes, this one again. Indicating strongly in our model on stoppage potential, Robertson is a WA-grown talent who is coming out of contract this year.
Pushed to the fringe by the deep pecking order for midfield spots at the Lions, Deven looks well-placed to provide a far greater amount of output if given the opportunity by another club. As posted earlier, averaged impressive figures of 29 disposals, 7 tackles and 1 goal per game in the VFL.
Having made just 38 senior appearances over 4 seasons, his price should be meagre as well.
Former WA U18 captain, Larke medallist and nephew of D.Glass. If rumours are to be believed, West Coast already has a 4 year offer in front of him.
Sign-on already Dev.
Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
191cm, 86kg, 18/3/2002 (21 years old)
State: QLD, Contract: 2024
Big-bodied midfielder?
Basketball background?
Ever-present across almost all our indicators, yet was dropped by Gold Coast twice this season.
If you ever wanted a defensive animal to provide freedom for your other midfielders to perform, whilst contributing significantly in their own right, this is your man. Another profound talent being thoroughly wasted by the Suns.
Currently finds himself behind M.Rowell, N.Anderson, T.Miller, D.Swallow and rumours persist of Gold Coast pursuing A.Treloar and D.Prestia, presenting possibly even more competition for places with a year left on his contract.
A Cairns product who was able to be pre-listed by Gold Coast in 2020, it remains unknown how open he would be to relocation to WA.
But it's a question that is seriously worth asking.
Paddy Dow (Carlton)
187cm, 85kg, 16/10/1999 (23 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2023
Another from last year, Dow keeps flagging on our indicators for untapped potential and performs when given opportunity. It's just with the stacked midfield ranks at Carlton, those opportunities don't come very often.
Coming off contract, it would be entirely career-limiting for him to remain at the Blues. Unlikely to entertain a move interstate, but worth the question. Still seems likely to join up with his brother at Richmond.
Dylan Stephens (Sydney)
184cm, 78kg, 30/6/2001 (22 years old)
State: VIC [via Norwood, SA], Contract: 2023
The former No.5 pick comes off-contract this year, is believed to have fallen out with Longmire, and is likely very gettable.
His 2023 also produces a second appearance under our Model 4, a significant indicator of development in years ahead. If we are looking for an outside runner to complement stoppage power, Stephens would slot in very nicely.
Has already travelled from country Victoria to SA (Norwood) and then to Sydney via the draft, so moving may not be so much of a barrier for him either.
Harry Perryman (GWS)
186cm, 84kg, 19/12/1998 (24 years old)
State: NSW, Contract: 2024 (RFA)
Still the forgotten Giant. An academy pick at no.14 in 2016, Perryman gets outshone by other names that do flashier things, but he is consistent, has brilliant decision-making ability and according to our data, is more than ready to take another step up in the midfield.
Perryman is highlighted in each of the past three years now as a midfielder that has potential to develop rapidly if given opportunity. Unfortunately for him, the GWS midfield goes pretty deep, and T.Green has developed into a monster. Is a ‘pre-agent’ this year, coming up as RFA next year.
Is he gettable? He's a NSW product who has displayed loyalty in the past. But maybe (hopefully) he's starting to tire of waiting for his chance to shine...
Hunter Clark (St Kilda)
186cm, 80kg, 26/3/1999 (24 years old)
State: VIC, Contract: 2023
The former pick 7 comes up very strongly in our model of players that could benefit from further opportunity. Is off contract this year and has thus far yet to enter discussions about renewal. An exceptional and damaging user of possession off both sides, he may be finally on the brink of taking the next step after being cruelled by injury earlier in his career.
Strongly linked with both North and GWS, he poses as a very handy pickup that would come at a low price.
Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
179cm, 88kg, 7/11/2003 (19 years old)
State: WA, Contract: 2025
The second WA representative, is Dark Sharks favourite. A player that just loves being in the thick of it, Sheldrick indicated on both of our models 1 & 4 in 2023. Is he gettable however? Contracted until 2025 and held in high regard by the Swans, it would be very unlikely to pry him away from Sydney's grasp.
So there is a data-driven list of potential targets to improve the midfield this year.
Better yet, two very highly flagged players are already on our list - Ginbey and Hewett.
TL;DR
Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions)
Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
Paddy Dow (Carlton)
Dylan Stephens (Sydney)
Harry Perryman (GWS)
Hunter Clark (St Kilda)
Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
I still think there’s good value in Zac Fisher. Never going to be an A grader, but potential to be a solid B. Lots of logistics in that one though
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
If I were involved I would be looking to get Nick Haynes + Perryman.
By taking on Haynes last year of salary we would be able to pick up Perryman very cheap at the trade table. Basically taking a salary cap dump on Haynes to get Perryman. Haynes can play Hurns role for a couple of years whilst the youngsters develop.
Perryman slots straight into our midfield as likely our second best mid next year.
By taking on Haynes last year of salary we would be able to pick up Perryman very cheap at the trade table. Basically taking a salary cap dump on Haynes to get Perryman. Haynes can play Hurns role for a couple of years whilst the youngsters develop.
Perryman slots straight into our midfield as likely our second best mid next year.
- Feb 12, 2008
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Saw your other thread mate...Always love your analysis and work you put in.
Of the list above, my picks would be below. (This is just gut feel of course)
What cost would you think each one would be?
Alex Davies (Gold Coast)
Harry Perryman (GWS)
Hunter Clark (St Kilda)
Angus Sheldrick (Sydney)
- Feb 12, 2008
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That would be an amazing outcome for the club. Love it!!!
If it were possible it also alleviates the need to trade for someone like Robertson/Dow (yuck btw) or similar and allows Reid to develop on the HFF with some midfield minutes. Or at HB with Duggan spending almost full time in the middle.
The clubs biggest issue in being competitive is by getting even half way back to break even in the middle of the ground. I firmly believe to develop a very good side you still need to be competitive whilst you bring in high end talent.
As otherwise without taking on Haynes salary GWS would almost certainly want our current second + future second for Perryman. It's a very long shot but it's how I would be looking at a money ball trade scenario whilst trying to fix deficiencies on the list.
Won't happen but it's the only real way to get players of higher tier talent below their actual value. So people know those two players would be 1.6mill out of next years salary cap and then about 1.2 mill out of salary cap combined in future years. Haynes would want a 2 year extension (you can do this knowing that particularly in say 2025 it's highly likely one of Gov, Barrass and Haynes is injured at any given time. Perryman you would have to take on his contract and offer him a further 3 years to consider the move.
Eddie_Sandbrah
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- #41
there's 2 different types of players we should be looking at (if at all):
1. Players who are young and will potentially develop with the side to the next flag
2. Older, experienced, and mature bodied players who can help younger players transition
In group 1:
Brockman and Dev Robbo. Should cost not much. Brockman a lively small forward, Dev a Redden type with 3 or so years in the system.
In group 2:
Oscar is doing fine as the #1 forward. No need for anything here. Just wait until we draft another KPF.
Barrass 28, and Gov near the end, and struggles to stay on the park. Bazzo is still young and would benefit taking the 3rd tall each week, or have a rebounder like Haynes so locking down someone becomes easier. Maybe Haynes, Tomlinson, Melican.
The midfield struggle. TK is outside. Sheed is also outside and should be pushed to a wing. Gaff is slow. Ginbey needs to help to transition. Reid will probably start as a mid sized forward or back flanker. Maybe Dev Robbo takes the Redden role, maybe we also add in some out and out ball winners like Crouch or Dow.
Half back flank - don't even worry about it. Half back flankers are dime a dozen. It's the midfield and key backs that we should consider if we need some older heads and bodies to help the kids transition.
1. Players who are young and will potentially develop with the side to the next flag
2. Older, experienced, and mature bodied players who can help younger players transition
In group 1:
Brockman and Dev Robbo. Should cost not much. Brockman a lively small forward, Dev a Redden type with 3 or so years in the system.
In group 2:
Oscar is doing fine as the #1 forward. No need for anything here. Just wait until we draft another KPF.
Barrass 28, and Gov near the end, and struggles to stay on the park. Bazzo is still young and would benefit taking the 3rd tall each week, or have a rebounder like Haynes so locking down someone becomes easier. Maybe Haynes, Tomlinson, Melican.
The midfield struggle. TK is outside. Sheed is also outside and should be pushed to a wing. Gaff is slow. Ginbey needs to help to transition. Reid will probably start as a mid sized forward or back flanker. Maybe Dev Robbo takes the Redden role, maybe we also add in some out and out ball winners like Crouch or Dow.
Half back flank - don't even worry about it. Half back flankers are dime a dozen. It's the midfield and key backs that we should consider if we need some older heads and bodies to help the kids transition.
- Feb 12, 2008
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I think Phils suggestion above addresses both the backline and midfield issues you've highlighted. It would also allow us to take someone like Brockman and still select the cream of the draft. I really like it personally.
I keep seeing a Redden comparison for Robertson but I have seen nothing in Dev's career thus far that is remotely similar to Redden's game style or output.
This is a comparison of Redden's 4th year in 2012 and Robertson's 4th year in 2023. Yes there is the argument that Robertson is being played out of position but if he was good enough to play midfield as a 22 year old then he would be - like Redden was.
Eddie_Sandbrah
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Stats mean nothing.
Redden played in a weak Lions side, Dev in a strong one. The opportunities are different. Dev is a big bodied contested ball winner. He's not a bull (Rowell, Oliver, Cripps), and not an elite ball user (Pendles, Anderson, Miller). If he's going to make it in the AFL, he'll be a Redden type.
Lots of people only want to draft in players guaranteed to make it. The problem with this - you have to pay. And we don't want to pay. We want to spend the best draft picks on youth right now.
We're not trying to draft a gun here. We're trying to get a solid big bodied defensive mid to take the heat of the guns, for a cheap price. If we don't get him, or if he doesn't make it, we'll easily find one in the next couple of drafts. What dev gives us is 3 seasons or so in the gym, and playing against men. if we don't grab him, potentially we need to grab a fringe 30 year old to tide us over.
- Sep 21, 2004
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Not just that Redden had established guns around him.
Dev will have kids. He will be expected to be the leader.
Can he lead?
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Dev will have kids. He will be expected to be the leader.
Can he lead?
On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app
Eddie_Sandbrah
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We don't know, that's why he's cheap. I suspect he'd find in tough, but he's 3 years in the system ahead of a new draftee. the other option is find a 30 year old fringe player.
I'm not a fan of what happened to Ginbey last year. Sure, we had no choice, but he was expected to do a lot of heavy lifting in his first year. I'd rather someone else do it and free him up a little to just play.
- Nov 27, 2014
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If he was good enough to be playing in that Lions midfield we wouldn’t be getting him for a 4th rounder.
Shoestar
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Looking at previous premiership sides over the past 10 years and the picks that each player was taken at, the median pick used on a key defender in a premiership side was greater than pick 55 whilst the median pick used on a key forward in a premiership side was taken at pick 13. Also worth noting that a lot of the better tall defenders such as Darcy Moore, Harris Andrews, Steven May and Jeremy McGovern were initially seen as tall forwards (I think even Tom Barrass only switched to defence in his draft year from being a tall forward).
My maths could have been slightly off but based off this I think a moneyball approach would be to pass on Ollie Murphy and maybe even Connor O'Sullivan at pick 19 and look to bring in a tall defender with a late pick. Someone competitive, tall and athletic with minimum cost would be my preference such as Zane Zakostelsky, Odin Jones or Elijah Scoble.
Aaron Naughton should be a primary target to complement Oscar Allen next year which may not seem like a moneyball move as it would likely cost a top 10 pick but the significant value of tall forwards is underappreciated in the AFL world currently.
My maths could have been slightly off but based off this I think a moneyball approach would be to pass on Ollie Murphy and maybe even Connor O'Sullivan at pick 19 and look to bring in a tall defender with a late pick. Someone competitive, tall and athletic with minimum cost would be my preference such as Zane Zakostelsky, Odin Jones or Elijah Scoble.
Aaron Naughton should be a primary target to complement Oscar Allen next year which may not seem like a moneyball move as it would likely cost a top 10 pick but the significant value of tall forwards is underappreciated in the AFL world currently.
Robertson is s**t.
WCEConnor23
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People forget Redden was a gun. Finals MVP with Yeo in 2018, Best and Fairest at the Lions, had some huge games for us with 30+ and 15+ contested possessions. Robertson, Culley etc.. shouldn't be compared to Redden.
