Who should replace Liza Harvey as Wa liberal leader?

[Hank Scorpion]

I wonder how many seats the libs will have going forward?

it will take a decade to recover from the last election loss. Given they have made no ground, or even gone backwards, it could be a decade or more from 2021.

Belnakor's analysis sounds pretty reasonable.

I think the Libs virtually run dead in the traditional swing seats and Labor's margins (and statewide 2PP) will blow out.

Both parties might be happy enough to just let their volunteers fight over a handful of seats and run low-budget campaigns, keeping their funds for federal races. There's not much incentive for Labor to go after Nedlands, beyond bragging rights.

At the very least, the Libs should be making sure their Legislative Councillors are up to scratch and dump any factional hacks who are just warming seats. It's an easy way for them to parachute in some talent that can revive their fortunes next term.

 

[CakeEater]

gut feeling will be a result similar to QLD which would be a negative 3-4% swing. Labor maybe gaining 3 seats, which would have Liberals with 10-11 seats.

So Zac's seat will probably go labor, I think Darling Range will be tough for the libs to retain too as the previous result was on the back of the Labor MP being a proven liar and fraudster. One other loss like Riverton seems reasonable based on the former leader leaving the seat.

Riverton is probably a neat assessment of the ills facing the libs.

Could have had Nick Marvin run ex Wildcats CEO pick some Liberal powerbroker hack instead.

Also Darling Ranges- not alot of love for Hayden in the party so its all on her to pull this off.

 

[Caesar]

They have been struggling this entire term.

Not sure that’s entirely fair. WA Labor were a rabble in 2019 and the Liberals seemed to be making good headway. Then COVID-19 came along, McGowan played his cards right, and now he's looking like a superstar.

 

[Ok Boomer]

Anything pre COVID has basically become irrelevant for the time being, including the fact that the WA economy was the worst in the country in 2019. 2019 was a tough year for a lot of people, perhaps even more so than 2020 because of lack of fiscal support.

 

[Belnakor]

Riverton is probably a neat assessment of the ills facing the libs.

Could have had Nick Marvin run ex Wildcats CEO pick some Liberal powerbroker hack instead.

Also Darling Ranges- not alot of love for Hayden in the party so its all on her to pull this off.

The Riverton candidate his linkedin / job history is a legitimate joke.

And they wonder why they can't get good candidates.

 

[Belnakor]

Belnakor's analysis sounds pretty reasonable.

I think the Libs virtually run dead in the traditional swing seats and Labor's margins (and statewide 2PP) will blow out.

Both parties might be happy enough to just let their volunteers fight over a handful of seats and run low-budget campaigns, keeping their funds for federal races. There's not much incentive for Labor to go after Nedlands, beyond bragging rights.

At the very least, the Libs should be making sure their Legislative Councillors are up to scratch and dump any factional hacks who are just warming seats. It's an easy way for them to parachute in some talent that can revive their fortunes next term.

don't look now but the majority of the upper house people are s**t candidates with minimal real-life experience. Anyone who is good isn't going to run in the upper house. the job is boring and the pay isn't amazing.

I think the margin is unlikely to be a massive blowout purely because there are 15 Labor seats with a margin over 15% (and *5* with over 20%). Even during historical landslides, you don't see those kind of seats going to 30-40% margins. I'd expect the majority of those seats to remain close to where they are.

 

[CakeEater]

The Riverton candidate his linkedin / job history is a legitimate joke.

And they wonder why they can't get good candidates.

I agree re the Riverton hack.

They've also let the prosperity churchies take over.
All of their winnable seats (S/Perth) has churchies in there

They had Comissioner Karl interested for Mt Lawley couldnt execute it.

Now they are running in mini Jo-burg (Morley) an Indian gent.......

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I agree re the Riverton hack.

They've also let the prosperity churchies take over.
All of their winnable seats (S/Perth) has churchies in there

They had Comissioner Karl interested for Mt Lawley couldnt execute it.

Now they are running in mini Jo-burg (Morley) an Indian gent.......

funny how the vic party is in the crapper after selling out to the happy clappers too

wonder if this is an issue in QLD too

imo big shock the quality of candidates is falling if you're speaking only with their voice

 

[Upgrayedd]

Liza had to step aside purely because Scarborough will probably go to Labor

Its especially bleak. Nalder was lucky to avoid the chop when they awarded a contract to a company he part owed

Zac may lose his seat . Which liberal member is happy to be the blood sacrifice?

 

[masai]

Kirkup guranteed to get an awesome run from the Worst Australian especially Jenna Clarke

Background ?.

 

[CakeEater]

Background ?.

They are quite friendly......

 

[Freo Big Fella]

I can't see any gains unless the seat had a particularly soft underbelly (ie: the liberal who got turfed did no campaigning). From what i remember Kingsley was tightly contested.

I think there'll be a couple of weird shifts regionally - Kalgoorlie and Gero are local campaign dice-rolls and could easily go Labor, Liberal or National, Peter Watson's retirement opens Albany up and Kevin Michel is very weak in the Pilbara.

Metro I'd agree that it's hard to see them bleeding more than Dawesville and Darling Range. Scarborough will be interesting - it's swung historically, and is far less moneyed up and more middle class than the surrounding Liberal Strongholds. Hillarys will stabilise with Rob Johnson out of the picture. Everywhere else is blue blood territory - they start giving up spots like Karrinyup/South Perth/Riverton and they're going have to contemplate going cap in hand to the Nats for a formal coalition to survive opposition.

Kirkup has the added benefit that if he does a bad job, he won’t need to be sacked - he’ll have lost his seat anyway.

I'd bet on Bill Marmion being inevitably pensioned off and Kirkup being parachuted into Nedlands in that scenario.

Going to be an interesting political science experiment on whether doorknocking and other local hustling can counteract a disastrous statewide campaign.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Background ?.

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

The note alleged Mr Kirkup had a “credibility gap with both female parliamentary members and female voters” that was “accentuated by the breakdown of his own marriage in 2018-19”. The note about Mr Kirkup referred to his new relationship with the assistant editor of The West Australian, Jenna Clarke.

 

[CakeEater]

NoCookies | The Australian

www.theaustralian.com.au

The note alleged Mr Kirkup had a “credibility gap with both female parliamentary members and female voters” that was “accentuated by the breakdown of his own marriage in 2018-19”. The note about Mr Kirkup referred to his new relationship with the assistant editor of The West Australian, Jenna Clarke.

Nalder returning serve here

 

[Belnakor]

Metro I'd agree that it's hard to see them bleeding more than Dawesville and Darling Range. Scarborough will be interesting - it's swung historically, and is far less moneyed up and more middle class than the surrounding Liberal Strongholds. Hillarys will stabilise with Rob Johnson out of the picture. Everywhere else is blue blood territory - they start giving up spots like Karrinyup/South Perth/Riverton and they're going have to contemplate going cap in hand to the Nats for a formal coalition to survive opposition.

I think you are probably right, though i think Riverton must be in play considering how poor the candidate is they preselected. Dr Jags has a huge presence (its my electorate) i'm actually getting sick of seeing his face everywhere.

 

[Belnakor]

I'd bet on Bill Marmion being inevitably pensioned off and Kirkup being parachuted into Nedlands in that scenario.

Going to be an interesting political science experiment on whether doorknocking and other local hustling can counteract a disastrous statewide campaign.

nedlands - possible, but Zac would have to nominate and I think Bill would be likely to tell them to get stuffed, he can wait 4 years. Like he did this round apparently.

In the regions there is a good track record of a local candidate beating the swing (Albany is a great example, also Pilbara when Gryls ran). Not sure of too many examples in the metro area.

 

[Belnakor]

Yeah that Joe Biden ,,struggling

he had the worst president in history to run against who let 250,000 people die. pretty hard to lose to that.

 

[Herne Hill Hammer]

Yeah that Joe Biden ,,struggling

Which Australian state did he just get elected in?

 

[CakeEater]

Zak Kirkup elected unopposed.

Ned Flanders attacking Collier and the Churchies in the media.

 

[Asapartyhat]

Which Australian state did he just get elected in?

Thought the covid world ,as quoted by op, encompassed more of the world than just Australian states,,,my mistake continue to educate me geniuses

 

[Admiral Byng]

Probably the party's best hope for some favourable coverage in the local press....

 

[Gough]

Good luck with a poor man's Christian Porter.

 

[Power Raid]

Good luck with a poor man's Christian Porter.

is a Zak an alcoholic loser?

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Good luck with a poor man's Christian Porter.

Kirkup, in his defence, is actually well across his policy briefs and willing to put in the hard yards in opposition (two concepts Porter is deeply unfamiliar with.)

 

[Belnakor]

I agree re the Riverton hack.

They've also let the prosperity churchies take over.
All of their winnable seats (S/Perth) has churchies in there

FYI forgot to mention you should look into nick marvins background. He was the churchie candidate in riverton. The other bloke fell out with them.