Who will make the top 4?

[kaiserchief13]

We all know Collingwood and Geelong will so which 2 out of Carlton, Hawthorn and West Coast will given their draw is as follows:

Carlton - Melbourne @ MCG, Fremantle @ PS, Hawthorn @ ES, BYE, St Kilda @ MCG

Hawthorn - North @ AU, Port @ MCG, Carlton @ ES, Bulldogs @ MCG, Gold Coast @ GCS

West Coast - Richmond @ PS, Melbourne @ ES, Essendon @ PS, Brisbane @ G, Adelaide @ PS

I predict Hawthorn and West Coast will make it.

 

[bkozican]

yea would have to say hawks and eagles. Only because the eagles have such a easy ride to the finals compared to carlton

 

[BradWCE]

Yeah I agree with Hawthorn and West Coast. Both have an easier run home than Carlton.

 

[PCORF]

Whoever gets the top 4 is almost certian they'll make it to at least a preliminary final. Very important to finish top 4. I think West Coast should win all its remaining games. Hawthron also play Carlton so one of those teams is likely to lose at least 1 game.

 

[jive]

hawks and west coast.
hawks are two points more than carlton and have played 1 game less

 

[TBoyleSuperstar]

I think the bye will mean Carlton will miss, still think they will play in a prelim this year.

 

[GordonBlue]

Yep, only chance for Carlton to make it is if Hawks lose to Dogs or North and then we beat them... I just can't see Eagles losing another game (Arg Freo and Dogs... so close)

Even so...
I see this
Collingwood v Eagles (70% Pies would get up)
Geelong v Hakws (50/50 game - say Cats win)

Carlton v (Freo, Swans or North) (@MCG 70% Carlton would win)
St Kilda v (Freo, Swans or North (@Etihad 70% Saints would win)

Eagles v Saints at Subi (70% Eagles would win)
Hawks v Carlton (MCG 50/50 game - Says Blues win bias)

Cats v Eagles
Pies v Blues

Cats v Blues

Blues Flag... yay... you can go home now people

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

Hawthorn are absolute locks. A game + heaps of percentage ahead of West Coast and half a game ahead of Carlton with a game in hand.

We play North Melbourne, Port, Carlton, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast. Should win all 5, absolute minimum we will win is 4 more games.

West Coast are as good as locks. The easiest run home you could imagine.

That means Carlton, are little to no chance to make the 4.

For what it's worth the TAB have the odds to make the Top 4 as

Hawthorn $1.03
WCE $1.20
Carlton $3.25

 

[jonoman89]

We have more of chance knocking Hawthorn out of the 4 than West Coast. So, in short, we have very little hope in hell.

As far as i see it the following games *might* be losses for each club:

Hawks: North, Blues, Dogs
Blues: Freo, Hawks, Saints
West Coast:....none really. Essendon maybe a 15% chance and Brisbane (away) 10%.

Carlton v Hawthorn will be huge if we beat Melbourne and Freo and Hawthorn beat North and Port. Almost a mini final in it's own right.

It's been redibly frustrating seeing WCE get out of jail the last two weeks. Here's hoping them and the Hawks drop one.

Making Hawthorn finish 4th so we may play them in a semi wouldn't be too bad (considering the other option would be WCE at subi)

 

[PCORF]

I think the bye will mean Carlton will miss, still think they will play in a prelim this year.

Highly unlikely if they finish 5th will make a prelim. But strange things happen sometimes.

 

[GordonBlue]

Highly unlikely if they finish 5th will make a prelim. But strange things happen sometimes.

At the G, we are 50/50 or better against any side bar Collingwood... won't be strange at all..

 

[jonoman89]

At the G, we are 50/50 or better against any side bar Collingwood... won't be strange at all..

Agree, but if we finish 5th we'd most likely have to play WCE at subi for the semi-final.

That's a bloody tough gig.

 

[GordonBlue]

Agree, but if we finish 5th we'd most likely have to play WCE at subi for the semi-final.

That's a bloody tough gig.

I thought 5th plays loser of 2nd and 3rd?

Plus I fancy our chance on the big open ground of Subi alot more than Etihad where we played them last... a fit Jamo and Waite and again I see it as a 50/50 game...

 

[Those]

I thought 5th plays loser of 2nd and 3rd?

The winner of 5v8 plays the loser of 1v4

 

[new breed]

Freo may beat Carlton at Patersons Stadium and that game will shape the 4 and 8 !!

 

[GordonBlue]

Freo may beat Carlton at Patersons Stadium and that game will shape the 4 and 8 !!

Pretty odd thing to say... I mean Carlton do play Hawthorn and St Kilda in which we have a higher chance of losing than the Freo game... plus the other 20 games that would shape up the 4 and 8

 

[DREAM TEAM BUFF]

I got a feeling it will be Carlton and Hawthorn

 

[PCORF]

I hope its

1. Collingwood
2. Geelong
3. Hawthorn
4. Carlton

So you get

Collingwood vs Carlton
Geelong vs Hawthorn