Prediction Who will we pick in the draft?

[BrissyCrow]

Just a quick update:

As of Sunday night we have had the following posts.

35 set of tips
8 tips for Thilthorpe to be our first selection. 22.9%
9 tips for Hollands to be our first selection. 25.7%
18 tips for McDonald to be our first selection .....51.4%
Other nominations:
Poulter was selected 18 times
Pedlar 10 times
O'Driscoll 12 times
Cook & Macrae 5 times
Bruhn & Powell 4 times.
Most believe that Borlase will be picked at 40 or we will match a Port bid and a couple suggest we will pass on him
Most believe that Newchurch will be a CatB Rookie

So as a quick summary the consensus is that we will pick:
Pk1 McDonald, Pk9 Macrae, Pk22 Poulter, Pk23 O'Driscoll along with Borlase and Newchurch.

Naturally that is a oversimplification. Some feel we will try and trade into 2021 and there is a feeling that we may Trade 9 & 23 & maybe 40 to the pies for their 2020 14 and 2021 1st.

Still three days to go and anything could happen.

 

[BrissyCrow]

Sorry, I meant Campbell Edwardes, not Luke Edwards.

My wrong assumption.

 

[BrissyCrow]

yeah sorry I meant we trade 9 for 14 and 2021 first. We probably give some later pick next year for points.

I think I have it now. You can check my summary to see if that captures your thoughts.

 

[BrissyCrow]

Where's #GROTTO picks

 

[Danger in Texas]

Gonna update my prediction quickly:

1: Bid on JUH, then McDonald
Trade 9, 23, 40 for 14, 16, 2021 Cool 2nd
14: Powell
16: Carroll
22: Poulter

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Hoping for Hollands however I think we will take McDonald

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[Mismatched]

Want to have a go at the other picks like 9,22 and 23????

Pick 1: McDonald
Pick 9: O’Driscoll
Pick 22: Poulter
Pick 23: Ford
Pick 40: Pedlar

But no real conviction with any of it.

 

[Gary123]

Bid on Ugle-Hagan
Mcdonald
Carroll
Poulter
O'Driscoll
Durdin

 

[Crow_68]

Bid on Ugle-Hagan
Mcdonald
Carroll
Poulter
O'Driscoll
Durdin

Nailed it, except Pedlar or Baldwin at 40 for me.

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[Mr MysteryGuest]

Update

1: McDonald
14: Stone
16: Poulter
22: O’Driscoll
80: Kolar

Newchurch as a rookie.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Im loving that the media usually have a good idea on who will be pick 1

This year the media has NFI

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[relapse]

Im loving that the media usually have a good idea on who will be pick 1

This year the media has NFI

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

There's some variables in the mix this year

ie the JUH bid and the fact that there's a top 5 SA based player in the mix.

The consensus seems to be in order of quality

1. Ugle-Hagan
2. McDonald
3. Hollands

The unknown is whether we're going to bid on JUH and/or whether we're going to ignore "best available" and go for the SA based player.

It's going to make Wednesday night very interesting because normally Pick 1 is blatantly obvious weeks out from the draft.

 

[GROTTO]

Where's #GROTTO picks

Pick 1: McDonald
Pick 9: Macrae
Pick 22: Cook
Pick 23: O'Driscoll
Pick 40: Borlase

Newchurch as our rookie.

 

[BrissyCrow]

There's some variables in the mix this year

ie the JUH bid and the fact that there's a top 5 SA based player in the mix.

The consensus seems to be in order of quality

1. Ugle-Hagan
2. McDonald
3. Hollands

The unknown is whether we're going to bid on JUH and/or whether we're going to ignore "best available" and go for the SA based player.

It's going to make Wednesday night very interesting because normally Pick 1 is blatantly obvious weeks out from the draft.

So why not give us you best guess??

 

[relapse]

So why not give us you best guess??

My guess is that we take McDonald with our pick.

Personally I would like Hollands, but Hamish's philosophy is always best available.

 

[Crows I Am]

I think we will pull the trigger on one of the pick swaps with either GWS or Collingwood. So will base my picks on that

Pick 1 - Mcdonald
Pick 13 - O'Driscoll
Pick 15 - Poulter
Pick 22 - Pedlar

Then hope Borlase and Newchuch make it through the RD

 

[Red mist]

McDonald, Cook,Poulter, Ford, Borlase.

 

[Schulzycrow]

Hollands then trade up using pick 9 and 2021 picks then Thilthorpe, Poulter, O’Driscoll, Borlaise Rookie Newchurch PSD Hately

If we manage that then I might have to change my mind about finding the cash to get season tickets.

 

[blitzen666]

people still think mcdonald surprisingly, its looking like its gonna be thilthorpe for all money. hope im wrong as i want logan

 

[Red mist]

people still think mcdonald surprisingly, its looking like its gonna be thilthorpe for all money. hope im wrong as i want logan

where is it still looking to be TT? Where is that money so I can get some purse?

 

[Crow_68]

Have gone back and forth with this. I do think we will trade 9 and 23 with either Collingwood or GWS.

Think we target quality users and speed with the majority of picks, Nicks will also love Pedlar’s attack on the ball.

1. McDonald
13. Carroll
15. Laurie
22. Pedlar or Poulter
40. Lake or Kolar

Borlase/Newchurch Cat B only

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[relapse]

people still think mcdonald surprisingly, its looking like its gonna be thilthorpe for all money. hope im wrong as i want logan

A few weeks ago I was convinced that we would take Thilthorpe, but since then the club has come out and reiterated that it's going to take "best available" at Pick 1 and Thilthorpe's attitude seems to have changed and has been talking up Sydney.

I might be reading too much into it, but to me it makes me suspect that Thilthorpe has been given the impression that both us and North are going to overlook him in the draft.

I am pretty much certain now that we're going to take Logan McDonald with our first pick.

 

[blitzen666]

A few weeks ago I was convinced that we would take Thilthorpe, but since then the club has come out and reiterated that it's going to take "best available" at Pick 1 and Thilthorpe's attitude seems to have changed and has been talking up Sydney.

I might be reading too much into it, but to me it makes me suspect that Thilthorpe has been given the impression that both us and North are going to overlook him in the draft.

I am pretty much certain now that we're going to take Logan McDonald with our first pick.

in all honesty i have no f**king clue who we are picking but if i had a gun to my head and had to pick who we are taking pick one and if i get it wrong im dead im picking thilthorpe. also with the north and hawks trade rumours this morning it puts more behind the thilthorpe at pick one trade. But what about Hollands? The rumours of us trying to trade back from 9 to GWS pick 13 and 15 indicated we are picking a tall at 1. The Thilthorpe pick is just a gut feel and when im picking with my gut i always pick the option i dont want so i dont get disappointed.

 

[Mileratkinsshow]

I think AND HOPE it is McDonald but would be happy with Hollands or TT.
I hope the trade with Collingwood happens and we pick up some of the decent Sa mids but the deal should skew in the favour of the Crows or else we shouldn’t accept it. I would like it to involve our 2021 2nd for their first as a minimum. We get 14 and 16, for 9 and 23 and the 2021 swap sweetener.
Would be unhappy not to pick up Borlase and Newchurch in rookie draft


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[Murray2503]

My guess is that we take McDonald with our pick.

Personally I would like Hollands, but Hamish's philosophy is always best available.

Hope we take McDonald. Look nothing against Hollands but the rate of subsequent ACL injury for players in the AFL under 21 is 50%. Therefore Hollands has a 50% chance he will reinjure his ACL. I'm not taking that risk on a top 30 pick, let alone pick 1. The rate of reinjury after doing an ACL for a player in the AFL over 21 is still 30%.

Fifteen-Year Audit of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstructions in the Australian Football League From 1999 to 2013: Return to Play and Subsequent ACL Injury - PubMed

Fifteen-Year Audit of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstructions in the Australian Football League From 1999 to 2013: Return to Play and Subsequent ACL Injury - PubMed

Most AFL players who underwent ACL reconstruction returned to play at least 1 AFL match. The high rate of subsequent ACL injury among AFL players demonstrates the highly demanding nature of Australian football, particularly at the elite level. The risk factors for subsequent ACL injury should be...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

"The rate of return to play after an initial ACL injury was 77% (121 of 158 players). Greater preinjury playing experience and earlier selection in the AFL draft were associated with higher rates of return to play. The rate of subsequent ACL injury to either knee was 30% (48 of 158 players) and was especially high among players aged <21 years (23 of 46 players, 50%). After subsequent ACL injury, 34 of 48 players (71%) returned to play."