Who will win the Brownlow?

[TigerTime88]

I think Thompson and Sloane will take too many votes off Dangerfield.

Cotch has to be a chance. The last bloke to win outside the 8 was Crawford, however we have also won 11 games this year with Port to come and majority of our losses have been under 10 pts bar Freo last week, Pies rnd 2 (24ish) and Blues rnd 1 blew out late to be 40 pts.

There is always a smoky no one has thought about like Matt Priddis that could snatch it. Not saying Priddis this year but he polled very well last year and someone will do so again.

 

[Mantastic]

Perhaps if he'd been content at Geelong...

... what? Favorite was it 3 times at the Cats? Him or Swan as well in 2010. Should have 3 already and going for 4.

 

[Ron The Bear]

... what? Favorite was it 3 times at the Cats? Him or Swan as well in 2010. Should have 3 already and going for 4.

Well you know, Kevin Bartlett's a certified legend and finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th. *, there was almost a punch-up at the count when he didn't win in '74.

 

[Mantastic]

Well you know, Kevin Bartlett's a certified legend and finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th. ****, there was almost a punch-up at the count when he didn't win in '74.

That reminds me, I miss the old counts, completely different animal.

 

[Ron The Bear]

That reminds me, I miss the old counts, completely different animal.

Yeah, they are. It was possible to win in a bottom side back then. But they used to stage-manage the finish so that the winner got up in the last gasp. Imagine the controversy these days...

 

[betterthanu]

Mitchell is a very good bet. As always, absurdly underrated. Hawthorn have won more games than anyone else. I expect Buddy to poll heavily and be right up there before injury. But Mitchell, Lewis and Rioli should poll well.

Except Adelaide and Sydney

 

[NZ_Tiger]

I think Tuck will take a lot of votes of Cotchin and could even be a smoky for highest placed Richmond player. I'm going to have a few on Tuck and Beams, they look good value to me.

 

[Duritz]

I think Tuck will take a lot of votes of Cotchin and could even be a smoky for highest placed Richmond player. I'm going to have a few on Tuck and Beams, they look good value to me.

Surely Delidio will get a lot of votes too? And what about Martin? He was pick 2 or whatever in his draft, will he get more votes or has his season been too poor?

 

[Wacky Tiger]

Surely Delidio will get a lot of votes too? And what about Martin? He was pick 2 or whatever in his draft, will he get more votes or has his season been too poor?

Guessing u haven't watched too many Tigers games if u think Dusty will get votes.

Lids and Tucky will at stages take votes but Cotchin has just been far more consistent than both.

As much as I'd love Cotchin to win it I just don't think we have won enough games. I know we have been close but ask Marc Murphy too many 2 and 1 votes will leave u short.

Kennedy is my tip.

 

[Duritz]

Guessing u haven't watched too many Tigers games if u think Dusty will get votes.

Lids and Tucky will at stages take votes but Cotchin has just been far more consistent than both.

As much as I'd love Cotchin to win it I just don't think we have won enough games. I know we have been close but ask Marc Murphy too many 2 and 1 votes will leave u short.

Kennedy is my tip.

What's gone wrong with Martin? Is he in danger of losing his spot in the side? Pretty alarming fall from grace for a 21 year old #2 draft pick???

 

[Wacky Tiger]

What's gone wrong with Martin? Is he in danger of losing his spot in the side? Pretty alarming fall from grace for a 21 year old #2 draft pick???

Na mate hes all good. Just dosent have that midfield tank yet. Most players get that 2nd year blues. Think Dusty had his this year. In saying that he has had some really good first halves and then falls away in the 2nd half. He will be fine and look for him to have a good year next year.

 

[Ron The Bear]

What's gone wrong with Martin? Is he in danger of losing his spot in the side? Pretty alarming fall from grace for a 21 year old #2 draft pick???

Has been statistically comparable to Daniel Rich, who I believe has been one of Brisbane's better players this year. Don't worry, he's fine.

 

[Chriseddy999]

S.Thompson should get votes in all but 5-6 games so far and he should get 2-3 in many.
5-6-7 and 14 he should get 3. Might even pick up one in the abortion of a game against Brisbane.

I got him for 3 in 1, 2 and 12 as well. Think he's a massive chance. But scared because of his last few weeks. I got on him big time 2 weeks ago when he was at 11.00 with brisbane, melbourne and gold coast to come. I thought he would come home extremely hard, but I think at best he's only got 2 votes from those 2 games so far. Most likely 0. Hopefully he runs amok this week against gold coast like he always does, and gazza gets tagged hard.

 

[Juddalenko]

The winners are the ones that get those 2 & 3 vote games. Something that will hold Cotchin back is that I think he will poll in many games, but not necessarily 3 vote polls. Beams, Ablett & Kennedy for me. Smokies: A. Swallow & M. Pavlich.

 

[Yelle]

Of the three favourites, I've got my tally so far...
Jobe Watson - 29 votes: Consistently good all year, a few losing games may hurt and Stanton dominates early.

Gary Ablett – 25 votes: Is good but Gold Coast have lost too many games by big margins. Hard to see a player poll well in 60+ point defeats.

Trent Cotchin - 21 votes: Start is way too slow and was generous with votes, picks up consecutive three vote games towards the end of the year but will struggle to poll higher than 21 votes.

 

[Alexwce]

My current vote count

32 G. Ablett (GC) -6.5
29 S. Thompson (Adel) -3.5 / +3.5
28 T. Cotchin (Rich) -5.5 / +5.5
27 J. Watson (Ess) -6.5 / +4.5
25 D. Beams (Coll) +3.5

-------------------------
22 P. Dangerfield (Adel) -1.5 / +2.5
22 J. P. Kennedy (Syd) -1.5 / 0.5

Notable Others
20 S. Mitchell (Haw) No calculated weighting
19 K. Jack (Syd) No calculated weighting
19 A. Swallow (North) No calculated weighting
16 D. Swan (Coll) No calculated weighting

Ablett shouldn't pull any less than a minimum 25 with 32 being his current predicted output and his maximum ceiling. When he has been the best, I've ignored any margin. He polled well when GC was thumped last year, umpires should award him

Thompson could be anywhere between 25 and 33 depending on how the umpires see his performances.

Cotchin's only detriment is the "losing" factor. Don't think there will be many games where Lids or Tuck will take votes from him. He was however awarded BOG in a few losing games, some I watched and I thought he was clearly best on field.

Watson was flying early but since Essendon's slump it may be hard to give him votes in some games which is why he has a crazy floor.

First game I've got Beams polling votes in was a Best afield performance vs Adelaide and even then Sidebottom was pretty damn good.

Either way it should be a very tight vote count.

 

[Duritz]

I think Thompson will still poll at least 1 on the weekend... Walker big chance the 3 votes, but the other ones are b/w Tippett, Thompson, Dangerfield, Wright, Reilly... and I reckon it should be -

3. Walker
2. Thompson
1. Wright

 

[juzzo]

The holding pattern of this round saw none of the top 4 poll which means Watson holds on with Ablett still a chance to tie if he has one last BOG in him.

31 Watson
28 Ablett
27 Beams
25 Thompson
22 Dangerfield
22 Kennedy
21 Deledio
21 Swan
20 Harvey

 

[Duritz]

The holding pattern of this round saw none of the top 4 poll which means Watson holds on with Ablett still a chance to tie if he has one last BOG in him.

31 Watson
28 Ablett
27 Beams
25 Thompson
22 Dangerfield
22 Kennedy
21 Deledio
21 Swan
20 Harvey

You didn't have Thompson polling this round?

 

[Old Shinboner]

What's gone wrong with Martin? Is he in danger of losing his spot in the side? Pretty alarming fall from grace for a 21 year old #2 draft pick???

Yep massive fall from grace. Alarming even. A 21 year old averaging 23 possessions in his 3rd year, 23 goals. Averaging more disposals and scoring shots than his previous 2 seasons.

Based on this he would be in danger of losing his spot one would think. They are obviously gifting him games.

If Richmond want to get rid of him I am sure we will find a spot for him. Probably would struggle to break into the all conquering Lions midfield though.

 

[Alexwce]

You didn't have Thompson polling this round?

To be fair he could miss out.

I've got Walker as BOG, Dangers as 2 and I've only give Thompson half a vote with a positive weighting. Jacob's, Sylvia, Wright all could steal a vote as well.

Think Ablett will poll a vote vs Carlton though. It wasn't his "norm" 40+ possession brilliance however his average game is better than most peoples best. Worth at least a 50% chance of getting just the single vote, depending on how you rated Lynch/McLean's game.

No Cotchin above 20 votes has me puzzled though.

 

[juzzo]

You didn't have Thompson polling this round?

Went with Walker, Dangerfield, Wright

 

[Kickin_Goals]

Thompson got the decisive clearances when it mattered, wright and danger got a junk time goal or two were otherwise not as dominant. Walker will get 3 if there is any sense to the voting.
There is no way Sylvia should get a vote in a 10+ goal loss where he went cold after half time and they proceeded to get thumped. Where most melb goals came from over the top kicks from turnovers and bombing to incredible marking performances up forward.
Rutten was more influential for Melbourne, earned them a lot of scoring assists.

Walker, Tipett<>Thompson.
my voting is perhaps different because it awards those who had the impact on the game when it was still in the balance over slow starters, fading performances and junk time scores

 

[MightyTiger]

What's gone wrong with Martin? Is he in danger of losing his spot in the side? Pretty alarming fall from grace for a 21 year old #2 draft pick???

Lol.

 

[TheCrouchingCrow]

What's gone wrong with Martin? Is he in danger of losing his spot in the side? Pretty alarming fall from grace for a 21 year old #2 draft pick???

Incredible, the lack of knowledge in this post from a supporter who should at least know the basic or widely publicised issues surrounding his/her own club and players.

First off, Martin was #3. Scully and Trengove were #1 and #2 respectively.
Secondly, he isn't in danger of losing his spot, but he has played poorly this year in comparison to his earlier seasons. That coupled with the issues surrounding the drug hoo-rah and Connors, it has been a pretty forgettable year.

As for the brownlow, I can't see him getting anywhere near 10 votes, let alone hampering Deledio or Cotchin's chances at a Brownlow. The problem for them would most likely be from Tuck who might steal a few of the higher vote games from them later in the season, last Friday night being one.