Prediction Nick Daicos: The statistic that could prevent him from winning the Brownlow Medal .

[Aristotle Pickett]

Daicos is currently 37th in contested possessions in the league.

"Players who have finished the season in the top five for contested possessions have won that year’s Brownlow dating back to 2013. That’s 10 winners in a row.

Carlton’s Patrick Cripps

9

Patrick Cripps

Age

29

Ht

195cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

16.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.8

5star

CL

7.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.9

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

6.3

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.4

4star

(2022), Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines (2021), Brisbane’s Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

(2020), Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe (2019), Tom Mitchell when at Hawthorn (2018), Richmond’s Dustin Martin (2017), Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield (2016), Fyfe again (2015), West Coast’s Matt Priddis (2014) and Geelong great Gary Ablett (2013) were all top four in this specific stats category in their Brownlow season.

Daicos currently has 176 contested possessions which is equal 37th in the league, so he has some work to do if this specific stat actually does define the Brownlow winner.

For the record, the current top five for contested possessions in 2023 is Marcus Bontempelli

4

Marcus Bontempelli

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.5

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

10.3

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

18.4

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

8.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

1.8

4star

(WB), Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

(BRI), Tom Liberatore (WB), Christian Petracca

5

Christian Petracca

Age

28

Ht

187cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.5

4star

D

24.4

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.5

3star

T

3.6

4star

CL

3.4

4star

D

19.0

5star

K

7.8

3star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.0

4star

(MEL) and Matt Rowell

18

Matt Rowell

Age

22

Ht

180cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

D

17.4

5star

K

7.6

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

0.8

1star

T

5.2

5star

CL

3.8

5star

(GCS). Just outside that quintet is last year’s winner Patrick Cripps

9

Patrick Cripps

Age

29

Ht

195cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.9

5star

K

9.8

4star

HB

16.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

5.8

5star

CL

7.4

5star

D

21.0

5star

K

10.1

4star

HB

10.9

5star

M

2.5

3star

T

3.8

4star

CL

6.3

5star

D

12.6

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

7.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.4

4star

(CAR) ahead of Caleb Serong

3

Caleb Serong

Age

23

Ht

180cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

4star

CL

2.6

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

7.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

(FRE), Rory Laird

29

Rory Laird

Age

30

Ht

177cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.4

5star

K

12.9

5star

HB

12.5

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.3

4star

CL

1.0

3star

D

19.6

5star

K

10.9

4star

HB

8.7

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.4

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.4

3star

(ADE), Tim Taranto

14

Tim Taranto

Age

26

Ht

188cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.3

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

3.0

4star

CL

5.5

5star

D

15.6

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

(RIC) and James Worpel

5

James Worpel

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.2

5star

HB

11.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

5.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

15.6

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

9.4

5star

M

1.0

1star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.8

4star

(HAW).'

The specific stat that could dampen Daicos’ Brownlow hopes

A trend has developed.

www.sen.com.au

 

[PerfectFooty]

He'll win it, Umpires get caught up in the furore

 

[jakson68]

Daicos is currently 37th in contested possessions in the league.

"Players who have finished the season in the top five for contested possessions have won that year’s Brownlow dating back to 2013. That’s 10 winners in a row.

Carlton’s Patrick Cripps (2022), Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines (2021), Brisbane’s Lachie Neale (2020), Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe (2019), Tom Mitchell when at Hawthorn (2018), Richmond’s Dustin Martin (2017), Geelong’s Patrick Dangerfield (2016), Fyfe again (2015), West Coast’s Matt Priddis (2014) and Geelong great Gary Ablett (2013) were all top four in this specific stats category in their Brownlow season.

Daicos currently has 176 contested possessions which is equal 37th in the league, so he has some work to do if this specific stat actually does define the Brownlow winner.

For the record, the current top five for contested possessions in 2023 is Marcus Bontempelli (WB), Lachie Neale (BRI), Tom Liberatore (WB), Christian Petracca (MEL) and Matt Rowell (GCS). Just outside that quintet is last year’s winner Patrick Cripps (CAR) ahead of Caleb Serong (FRE), Rory Laird (ADE), Tim Taranto (RIC) and James Worpel (HAW).'

The specific stat that could dampen Daicos’ Brownlow hopes

A trend has developed.

www.sen.com.au

Stop listening to Radar and SEN

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

He'll win it, Umpires get caught up in the furore

You might be right.

 

[Chronz]

He played HBF for half the year. No s**t he isn't anywhere near the top of the CP stat this year.

 

[Milanista28]

He'll win it, Umpires get caught up in the furore

He might also win it because he's been pretty amazing and damaging on the outside.

 

[RUNVS]

He played HBF for half the year. No s**t he isn't anywhere near the top of the CP stat this year.

I read this abbreviation and I definitely think of something else.

 

[PerfectFooty]

He might also win it because he's been pretty amazing and damaging on the outside.

Not ever saying he isn't.

I just don't really rate the brownlow but that's a different topic

 

[Fadge]

So the take away here is that James Worpel

5

James Worpel

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.2

5star

HB

11.3

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

5.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

15.6

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

9.4

5star

M

1.0

1star

T

3.2

5star

CL

1.8

4star

is more likely to win the Brownlow than Nick Daicos.

Sweet.

Yet another informative thread created by a Richmond supporter...

 

[Fadge]

What is the stat around the player who receives the most Brownlow votes winning the Brownlow?

 

[HairyO]

He'll win it, Umpires get caught up in the furore

Yep. In 2014 (I believe) at the midway point of the season Jordan Lewis was touted as a smoky for the Brownlow.

On the night he had basically no votes to the point when the media hype started and similar votes to anyone else after that point.

So the hype very much filtered to the umpires.

 

[And_ROOS]

Daicos will win it because in a lot of games he has been the match winner, had the most possessions, had the most "big moments", has kicked goals and has had the media riding his dick since round 1.

It would be a Woewodin/Cooney level upset if Daicos wasn't to win the Brownlow this season. The other players you listed probably haven't done enough. Maybe Petracca because the Dees are top 4, he gets a lot of it and kicks a few goals, but honestly I would be genuinely surprised if Daicos doesn't win the BL by at least 5 votes.

 

[HairyO]

Daicos will win it because in a lot of games he has been the match winner, had the most possessions, had the most "big moments", has kicked goals and has had the media riding his dick since round 1.

It would be a Woewodin/Cooney level upset if Daicos wasn't to win the Brownlow this season. The other players you listed probably haven't done enough. Maybe Petracca because the Dees are top 4, he gets a lot of it and kicks a few goals, but honestly I would be genuinely surprised if Daicos doesn't win the BL by at least 5 votes.

The risk will be a player being very good without being great, but no competition within their team. Picking up a lot of 1 and 2 votes.

Im not sure if that exists this year.

 

[STRONGandBALD]

I reckon it’s more likely that the umps missed him a bit as he played at HB more than anything but the OP has a point.

 

[HairyO]

I reckon it’s more likely that the umps missed him a bit as he played at HB more than anything but the OP has a point.

Zero chance anyone missed him. The coverage is relentless.

Plus Collingwood winning so many games means there are few games where Pies players wont poll.

 

[And_ROOS]

The risk will be a player being very good without being great, but no competition within their team. Picking up a lot of 1 and 2 votes.

Im not sure if that exists this year.

Well of the players that regularly get high possessions and score well, I would think only Josh Daicos, Moore, De Goey, Elliott and Crisp would be taking 2s and 3s off him and I don't think they will have done that often enough to hurt his votes. Add in that Collingwood have won most of their games, meaning odds are Daicos likely gets the 3s and 2s.

Even the games where he has been s**t by his standards he is still nearly getting 30 disposals, so there might be games he gets 1s where in other years where the Pies lose he gets nothing.

 

[RUNVS]

The risk will be a player being very good without being great, but no competition within their team. Picking up a lot of 1 and 2 votes.

Im not sure if that exists this year.

Gulden. Often been the best player at the Swans in a lot of games. Won't have many Swans taking points off him.

 

[Partridge]

Yep. In 2014 (I believe) at the midway point of the season Jordan Lewis was touted as a smoky for the Brownlow.

On the night he had basically no votes to the point when the media hype started and similar votes to anyone else after that point.

So the hype very much filtered to the umpires.

I'm absolutely convinced about this. You only need to look at how many votes the star players get now - especially the star midfielders. There's almost a sense of disappointment in the footy media if one of their anointed favourites doesn't win.

Not that long ago 20 votes gave you a very strong chance of winning. It wouldn't get you in the top 10 anymore. That's directly traceable to when the hype about star midfielders went up.

 

[HairyO]

I'm absolutely convinced about this. You only need to look at how many votes the star players get now - especially the star midfielders. There's almost a sense of disappointment in the footy media if one of their anointed favourites doesn't win.

Because many of them are shocking gamblers and stand to lose huge amounts of money if the guys they got in on early dont end up winning.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

He played half back majority of the year this is a stupid thread even by your normal standards Aristotle Pickett

I'm simply giving the stat that the last 10 winners of the Brownlow have been in the top 5 contested ball winners and that Daicos ranks 37th.
Make of that what you will. We will see what happens

 

[Stax on the mill]

He'll win it, Umpires get caught up in the furore

And deservedly so.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

He'll win it, Umpires get caught up in the furore

Bont is a moral.

 

[Daka]

So the take away here is that James Worpel is more likely to win the Brownlow than Nick Daicos.

Sweet.

Yet another informative thread created by a Richmond supporter...

Worpel has no chance, Daicos has a big chance but this history shows he is not shoe in to win the award.

 

[the harry]

I'm absolutely convinced about this. You only need to look at how many votes the star players get now - especially the star midfielders. There's almost a sense of disappointment in the footy media if one of their anointed favourites doesn't win.

Not that long ago 20 votes gave you a very strong chance of winning. It wouldn't get you in the top 10 anymore. That's directly traceable to when the hype about star midfielders went up.

Could also be different game styles and smarter use of the bench to ensure when players are on the ground, they're in the middle and have energy?

 

[Smithdogmaddog]

He'll win it because his stand out games have been so good theyll all defintely get 3s and he'll even pick up some 2s and 1s he prob didnt deserve just like all brownlow winners due to the reputation