Who will win the Brownlow?

[StevenwellerHFC]

s**t troll is still s**t.

So most of your posts after the Brownlow in this thread will be s**t. Cry about more, Not that i don't rate Trent, Maybe if the Tigers finish in the top 6 atleast next year we will be rolling the red carpet out to him.

 

[TigerTime88]

Just as an unrelated side note, Does anyone know when a team had the coleman and the brownlow winner in the same side and missed the finals?

I thought about this the other day.

The only one off the top of my head that I thought might have been Lockets brownlow year where I assume he also won the Coleman and I thought the Saints battled a bit that year.

 

[ZAAHAARAKIS!!!!!]

I thought about this the other day.

The only one off the top of my head that I thought might have been Lockets brownlow year where I assume he also won the Coleman and I thought the Saints battled a bit that year.

yep, just had a look then. Beat out the Wiz by 14 goals and tied with platten, and the saints came 10th out of 14.

If thats a once in 100 year event, then the tigs really do have bad depth

 

[TheCrouchingCrow]

Lockett won the Brownlow with 20 votes along with John Platten from the Hawks, and won the Coleman on 117 goals.

St Kilda finished that year in 10th place, with 9 wins and 13 losses, 3 wins out of the 8 and %.

 

[Military_man]

Ablett ... But don't be surprized to see a lesser known player win it this year.. If Ablett doesn't win it i expect the winner will come from one of the sides in the top 8..

 

[ize_]

Trent isn't in the same league as Ablett and you know it.

Not the reason you gave though... You suggested Cotch has no chance because of Richmond's lack of wins. Pick a trolling angle and stick to it I suggest.

 

[shaqsuns]

im tipping an ablett win, need some sought of good news story up here in sunny queensland about footy

 

[ZAAHAARAKIS!!!!!]

I think it's a race of 3 tbh.
Ablett, Watson and Cotchin to place (not in that order).

followed by Beams, Dangerfield, Swan, JPK, Superpav, Pendles and Selwood.
Stanton to lead at round 7.

If i was a betting man, and I am, Ablett, Cotchin, Watson trifecta would be a very good bet.

 

[Ghost of Grinter]

I still think Watson will win.

His lead will be massive.

Beams is value aswell.

 

[Duritz]

Simple fact is though, Adelaide as a team will win more votes this year, possibly by double or more. And certain players will benefit, namely Dangerfield and Thompson, who will double their 2011 performance (maybe more than double). I can easily see Thompson getting 25 or so votes which - in a very close year - could easily win him the award. Cooney won it with 24, Cousins won it with 20, Goodes won it with 26, and the three way tie was won with 22.

They won 7 last year. They've already won 16 this year. Let's assume they scrape by the Suns this weekend, that'll be 17. Far more than double.

 

[Duritz]

im tipping an ablett win, need some sought of good news story up here in sunny queensland about footy

Lions 10 wins for the year, that'll be your good news story.

Oh and Dayne Zorko, he's a great story this yea - oh, sorry.

 

[_DBF_]

It's amazing how King used to get them before he acquired a reputation. We know how badly he gets ripped off these days, yet he still appears on this list!

Most free kicks among current players, first 85 games of career:

186 Joel Selwood
161 Andrew Swallow
147 Angus Monfries
143 Trent Cotchin
143 Ben McGlynn
136 Marc Murphy
127 Josh Fraser
125 Jake King
120 Scott Thompson (NM)
119 Dean Cox

So he's second then

 

[Chriseddy999]

Dangerfield probably 3. Scotty Thompson 2. Jobe maybe 1 but unlikely. Mitchell 3. Joel Selwood maybe 3. Agree with these? Any other favourites get votes I missed so far this round?

 

[ams4crows]

Dangerfield is so flashy! He catches your attention even when Thompson has a better game people still talk about that amazing running goal/ breaking the lines/tackle that Dangerfield did.

probably got the 3 votes today. could very well win it.

 

[Mantastic]

That Crows/Suns game I think will surely be the big, last round, Andrew Demetriou **DRAMATIC PAUSE** match. You would think Danger will get 3 and with Ablett and Thommo involved it could well have a say on the winner.

 

[Bradesmaen]

I'm surprised people still care about this worthless award where stats mean more than who was best.

 

[Rustin Cohle]

Vlad is going to have a field day on Brownlow night with D......................... Swan and D.......................... Beams.

 

[Mateyman]

I'm surprised people still care about this worthless award where stats mean more than who was best.

But the umps aren't allowed to look at stats before placing their votes...

 

[Richo83]

yep, just had a look then. Beat out the Wiz by 14 goals and tied with platten, and the saints came 10th out of 14.

If thats a once in 100 year event, then the tigs really do have bad depth

I think it says more about this year's brownlow and coleman than Richmond's depth.

 

[shotgun_blues]

IMO almost certainly, the winner will get between 22-31 votes, 25+ is more likely, for varying reasons I only see the following players capable of getting to 22 votes (against popular opinion and for my own varying reasons) :

$4.50 Watson
$5.00 Swan
$7.00 S.Thompson
$8.00 Pendlebury
$8.00 Tuck(!)
$16.00 Beams
$16.00 Selwood
$25.00 Kennedy
$50.00 Dangerfield

- I have Swan, Pendles and Beams polling 66 votes between them, one of them will go very close to winning on that basis (about 5/2 for a Collingwood winner), the most votes of any one teams midfield chances. They have no ruckman or key forward taking votes off them. Pendles injury has most likely cost him a brownlow.
- Ablett cannot poll 22+ votes to win. Simply won't get enough 3's and 2's.
- IMO the only two players capable of going 30+ are Watson and Swan.
- I just can't see the love for Cotchin and why Tuck is not a massive chance , it baffles me looking at the stats below, and at worst says Tuck must be a value bet for a top 3 or 5 finish.

Cotchin
Rd Result Score Poss Marks Goals Tackles I50 DT SC Votes
22 Win 102-57 31 10 0 5 8 145 123 2
21 Loss 72-94 32 1 0 4 5 101 122
20 Win 150-80 35 7 3 4 5 152 175 3
19 Win 132-84 21 3 1 7 9 103 115
18 Loss 91-95 24 4 3 3 5 114 106
17 Loss 99-103 24 3 1 5 5 101 98
16 Loss 88-90 38 10 0 4 5 137 141 2
15 Win 101-78 28 2 0 8 2 106 100
14 Loss 87-106 25 3 1 7 5 111 136 1
12 Win 86-74 25 1 1 3 7 87 99
11 Loss 66-78 30 6 1 3 4 112 107
10 Win 121-113 29 1 0 6 5 97 106
9 Win 137-75 31 5 1 3 6 113 112
8 Loss 109-128 29 7 3 6 6 143 130 1
7 Win 91-62 27 2 0 5 6 96 111
6 Win 91-54 18 2 0 4 1 63 73
5 Loss 97-107 29 6 1 2 6 110 123 2
4 Loss 65-75 24 3 0 9 5 105 103
3 Win 133-74 22 5 3 4 6 110 126
2 Loss 64-85 26 4 0 2 2 88 101
1 Loss 81-125 27 1 2 8 5 120 127

Tuck
Rd Result Score Poss Marks Goals Tackles I50 DT SC Votes
22 Win 102-57 33 11 0 2 12 131 155 3
21 Loss 72-94 28 9 0 8 5 128 139 1
20 Win 150-80 21 7 0 3 2 81 74
19 Win 132-84 24 1 1 4 3 86 101
18 Loss 91-95 31 3 2 5 6 117 153 2
17 Loss 99-103 26 4 2 4 6 106 155 2
16 Loss 88-90 24 4 0 5 6 91 73
15 Win 101-78 23 7 1 9 2 117 133 2
14 Loss 87-106 31 6 0 9 7 135 137 3
12 Win 86-74 29 4 0 6 8 106 142 2
11 Loss 66-78 29 3 1 8 4 124 155 2
10 Win 121-113 24 3 1 2 2 80 84
9 Win 137-75 35 8 1 10 5 152 148 3
8 Loss 109-128 26 7 0 0 7 74 87
7 Win 91-62 24 6 0 8 1 100 98
6 Win 91-54 28 5 0 5 3 102 109 1
5 Loss 97-107 17 2 0 6 3 65 70
4 Loss 65-75 27 5 0 9 4 113 88
3 Win 133-74 30 6 1 11 7 146 152 3
2 Loss 64-85 25 5 0 6 5 96 114
1 Loss 81-125 15 3 0 2 0 47 49

I'll be looking at backing the following players win, e/w, top 5 etc: Tuck, Selwood, Pendlebury, Swan & Beams. I won't be backing Cotchin or Ablett with Monopoly money.

My gut feel says Swanny will go back-to-back as he is a proven vote-getter, in a top 4 side, averages the most kicks, and had 5 40+ possession games in wins (guaranteed 15 votes almost).

 

[Ron The Bear]

yep, just had a look then. Beat out the Wiz by 14 goals and tied with platten, and the saints came 10th out of 14.

If thats a once in 100 year event, then the tigs really do have bad depth

Essendon 1952, 8th/12, Hutchison & Coleman
Carlton 1961, 8th/12, James & Carroll

 

[THE_GUN]

whilst i havnt watches alot of other games apart from richmond games live, there have been alot of similarities in cotchins games to other winners in the past, I noticed that he is getting alot more free kicks than before and the umpires are noticing when he is getting held/blocked/taken high/restricted - alot of the similarities that i seen in Ablett & Judds winning years.

Sure Richmond havnt won alot of games but if we win today that will be 11 wins,probably 4-5 wins off being perfect for a brownlow winner to win it but Richmond have been involved in alot of very very close losses which went to the wire and trent played well in most of them and wouldnt suprise if he did get votes in these games (maybe not the 3 but could get the 2 in 4 games)

Whilst i do want Cotchin to win it , I must also except that others such as Ablett,Watson,Beams,Dangerfield,Kerr also have legitimate claims. Could all come down to tomorrows game Richmond v Port
Perhaps 3 votes against port will make it
Cotchin 28
Watson 27
Ablett 26

 

[jenny61_99]

I'm surprised people still care about this worthless award where stats mean more than who was best.

I think the worse indictment on it is that it's voted by umpires - the people that we boo soundly every match for making so many goddam mistakes! How can we also trust these muppets to pick out the best and fairest when they can't be consistent within a game!

 

[RobbyRoy]

Went through write ups of the games and media/coaches votes, with a bit of my own initiative of course. After 22 rounds I had:

25 - Watson
23 - Ablett
21 - Dangerfield
21 - Kennedy
21 - Thompson
21 - Pendlebury
20 - Beams
20 - Swan
19 - Cotchin
18 - Jack
18 - Mitchell

Who knows what the umpires will think but I tend to do quite well when I do this. I think all of the above have a legitimate chance of winning and I may have underestimated J. Selwood and Pavlich with my votes. Great to see a name like Shane Tuck thrown around but I doubt he'll come close; have him on about a dozen votes and was quite generous. Just doesn't catch the eye as much as Cotchin, Deledio and even Foley and Grigg.

 

[DG-Man]

Watson 31
Cotchin 26
Beams 23
Dangerfield 23
Ablett 21