Who will win the Brownlow?

[Duritz]

How come you mentioned Buckley?

Irregardless of how many votes he may or may not poll, he wasn't consistent enough over the last half of the year to win the Brownlow, IMO.

Just seemed a good analogy to me.

RE Thompson: couldn't agree less. Think he'll bolt in.

PS - Irregardless is not a word. Irrespective is, and regardless is, but not irregardless.

 

[PykeDream]

For Thompson in the last eight I'd say he'd poll similar to the following:
Rd 23 - 2 votes
Rd 22 - 1/2 votes
Rd 21 - 0/1 vote
Rd 20 - 0 votes
Rd 19 - 0 votes
Rd 18 - 0 votes
Rd 17 - 0/1 votes
Rd 16 - 3 votes

I'm going to go with 8 votes in the past 8 rounds.

 

[Duritz]

For Thompson in the last eight I'd say he'd poll similar to the following:
Rd 23 - 2 votes
Rd 22 - 1/2 votes
Rd 21 - 0/1 vote
Rd 20 - 0 votes
Rd 19 - 0 votes
Rd 18 - 0 votes
Rd 17 - 0/1 votes
Rd 16 - 3 votes

I'm going to go with 8 votes in the past 8 rounds.

I have -

16 - 3
17 - 1
18 - 2
19 - 1
20 - 0
21 - 2
22 - 3
23 - 2

For a total of 14 in the last 8 rounds. Which is much more than 3.

 

[PykeDream]

I have -

16 - 3
17 - 1
18 - 2
19 - 1
20 - 0
21 - 2
22 - 3
23 - 2

For a total of 14 in the last 8 rounds. Which is much more than 3.

If you don't mind me discussing/arguing...

I don't think he'll get any votes against Geelong (Rd 18) because he was hardly damaging at all with his 40 possessions. I reckon Hawkins 3, Danger 2, Selwood 1.
For Rd 22 I think Walker has the 3 votes locked away and the 2 and 1 is a raffle between Thommo, Wright, Douglas, Danger and Sylvia - it can be difficult to predict with dead rubbers.

I'm surprised by you giving him 2 votes in your win against us. He racked them up after quarter time, but I think his mind-bogglingly stupid decision to sit on one of your players and give away a 50m penalty that resulted in a crucial goal in the dying minutes of the game will have stuck in the umpires' mind and cost him votes. Redden would obviously be 3 votes but would you have Bewick, Dangerfield, Hanley or someone else with the singular vote for that game?

For Essendon (Rd 19) I'd have it Dangerfield 3 votes, Watson 2 votes and Brodie Smith 1 vote, simply because Thompson disappeared when the game was on the line, and wasn't too influential otherwise.

Perhaps I'm pessimistic but I think Thompson's stats overstated his influence in many games in the final third of the season. Having said that he racked them up from Rounds 1-16.

 

[Grimmjow]

Ok, so you don't think Cotchin will win, we get it. However lots of people think otherwise and the AFLCA medal is an indication that he has had a very good year is it not? It's like you're trying to tell us exactly what will happen when you don't know either. No one knows what the umpires think.
Cotchin's possessions stand out like dog balls compared to most other players because he is so good and has so many tricks that are very easy on the eye, which is why I think he will stand out to the umpires a lot more than someone like beams, watson or thompson who just go about their business very quietly racking up the stats. This isn't to say cotchin has had a better year, I just think his game style would stand out more to the umpires, which is why I think dangerfield is also a good chance.

broken record.

don't think people have the grasp of understanding what i've recently posted. you don't need to tell me how Cotchin plays, i dont just watch 'west coast' games. i'm done repeating myself. credibility all lost if you dont think beams or watson has as much hurt factor / influence in games then cotchin. nice yellow and black glasses you got on.

 

[TheCrouchingCrow]

I have -

16 - 3 - Quite possible, though a 2 or 1 vote game is more probable
17 - 1 - Was average in this game. Vince and DF will poll 2 or 3's in this game. Others were better.
18 - 2 - Best case, 1 vote. Hawkins was BOG, Dangerfield almost won it for us, so he'll get the 2. I know he got 40, but he gave away a tonne of FA's and we lost the game.
19 - 1 - Possible, but more likely 3. DF, 2. Watson, 1. Dempsey. Clear stand outs
20 - 0 - Correct. Was tagged out of the game well.
21 - 2 - Possible. Thompson and DF were the 2nd and 3rd best, matter of position, though the loss might hurt
22 - 3 - No chance in hell. Best case 2. Walker is a lock for 3. He should poll at least a 1.
23 - 2 - Correct.

For a total of 14 in the last 8 rounds. Which is much more than 3.

I think you're being far far to generous with the votes mate.

From my adjustments, I think he'll poll best case, maybe 8 votes. I think it won't matter though. Rd 1 - 16 was special for Thompson. Will poll his majority there. Each player in the favourites was not consistent through the whole season, everyone will have their down patches. Thompson's will be from Rd17-20/21

 

[Rids]

For Thompson in the last eight I'd say he'd poll similar to the following:
Rd 23 - 2 votes
Rd 22 - 1/2 votes
Rd 21 - 0/1 vote
Rd 20 - 0 votes
Rd 19 - 0 votes
Rd 18 - 0 votes
Rd 17 - 0/1 votes
Rd 16 - 3 votes

I'm going to go with 8 votes in the past 8 rounds.

I have him with 7 over the last 8 rounds ... and winning it from Watson, Swan, Ablett and Dangerfield.

 

[Richo83]

Difference being, win/loss ratio RICH vs SYD/COLL/ADE

Okay, sure, a non-finalist is unlikely to win the medal (a sad situation in my eyes, just look at Skilton) but the post from confucius seemed to imply that somehow Cotchin winning would be an injustice. I think it's unlikely, but ridiculous? For mine, Cotchin helped win as many games as Dangerfield.

 

[Grimmjow]

Okay, sure, a non-finalist is unlikely to win the medal (a sad situation in my eyes, just look at Skilton) but the post from confucius seemed to imply that somehow Cotchin winning would be an injustice. I think it's unlikely, but ridiculous? For mine, Cotchin helped win as many games as Dangerfield.

Okay, sure, use Skilton as your case who won 50 years ago

 

[Vdubs]

Ablett polled 3 of 30 in losses when he won. There are better examples - Ricciuto 8 of 22, Woewodin 8 of 24, Crawford 8 of 28, Kelly 8 of 21.

Reckon Cotchin will need at least 8 votes from losses to win the Medal, but I don't think it's out of the question.

What about Ablett last year? 3 wins and an injury interrupted preseason, he polled over 22 votes
Had a great year, if the umps are fair dinkum and don't rely on the result of the game, Ablett wins hands down. Otherwise Beams, Cotchin, Watson, Kennedy, Selwood, Swan, Pendles, Mitchell, Thompson, Dangerfield, Pavlich, Lewis, Jack, Hayes, Swallow should cover it

 

[Ron The Bear]

What about Ablett last year? 3 wins and an injury interrupted preseason, he polled over 22 votes
Had a great year, if the umps are fair dinkum and don't rely on the result of the game, Ablett wins hands down. Otherwise Beams, Cotchin, Watson, Kennedy, Selwood, Swan, Pendles, Mitchell, Thompson, Dangerfield, Pavlich, Lewis, Jack, Hayes, Swallow should cover it

Certainly there's a tendency for the umpires to favour the winning team more so than in past eras, and players' chances are tied to team success to an extent. Perhaps its partly due to players - even champions - being required to become more team-oriented these days.

These are the top pollers from losing games since 1984. More Medal winners than not in the list.

58 - Buckley
52 - R.Harvey
43 - Kelly
41 - West
36 - Roos
30 - Black, Goodes, Burke
28 - Cousins
27 - Ablett, Richardson, Winmar
26 - Crawford, Loewe
24 - Judd, Ricciuto, Voss, Schwass

 

[Grimmjow]

RTB - not sure what your trying to convey..

if you wana take a sample of pollers in losing games and apply this with Cotchin, then it may be best to compare players who polled in losing games at the same stage Cotchin is currently at. Those are all well established gun's who've played consistently well over the careers, and pick up votes in losses along the way. Harvey, Black, Goodes, Ablett, Judd are proven vote getters. Like the AA, you need to earn it - like earning the favoritism from the umpires.

the most recent winner polling majority of its votes in losses, Ricciuto tie-ing in 2003.
ADE 13W - 9L, 8votes in losses.

That year was a low count though, I would believe Cotchin needs 25+ to be near the top.

What about Ablett last year? 3 wins and an injury interrupted preseason, he polled over 22 votes
Had a great year, if the umps are fair dinkum and don't rely on the result of the game, Ablett wins hands down. Otherwise Beams, Cotchin, Watson, Kennedy, Selwood, Swan, Pendles, Mitchell, Thompson, Dangerfield, Pavlich, Lewis, Jack, Hayes, Swallow should cover it

Going out of limb here.

 

[Necromancer Beth]

I wish Roby would tell me who is going to win.

 

[Grimmjow]

With regards to the last Brownlow winner whos club did not finish in the top 8

1999 - Crawford 28votes
HAW 10W-11L (9th)

10votes in losses
(2votes x 4 losses, 2votes x 1 draw)

 

[Vdubs]

RTB - not sure what your trying to convey..

if you wana take a sample of pollers in losing games and apply this with Cotchin, then it may be best to compare players who polled in losing games at the same stage Cotchin is currently at. Those are all well established gun's who've played consistently well over the careers, and pick up votes in losses along the way. Harvey, Black, Goodes, Ablett, Judd are proven vote getters. Like the AA, you need to earn it - like earning the favoritism from the umpires.

the most recent winner polling majority of its votes in losses, Ricciuto tie-ing in 2003.
ADE 13W - 9L, 8votes in losses.

That year was a low count though, I would believe Cotchin needs 25+ to be near the top.



Going out of limb here.

sure I've missed a few.

 

[KeilorUnder9s]

1 G. Ablett (28)
2 D. Swan (28)
3 J. Watson (26)
4 S. Thompson (25)
5 P. Dangerfield (25)

Statistically Swan has had a better year than last year when he won the brownlow and only played 1 game lessthis year. He averages nearly 36 touches a game this year, with his lowest possession count being a 27. He reached 30+ possies on 15 out of 18 occassions including 6 40+ possie games. With an average of 36 possies a game, that doesnt go noticed. True that pendles and Beams will steal votes, but i cant see many other pies players polling well. Pies won a fair

Cotchin has only got 30+ possies on 7 occasions. Tiges only had 10 wins calculating to around 80 votes allocated to their players. Cotch, Deledio, grigg, maric, reiwoldt and tuck have all had decent years (6-12 votes each probably), i cant see how cotchin will get enough votes to even poll remotely well.

It's not just about possessions.

 

[Y2Juddy]

dangerfield for mine, stands out clearly from the rest of the crows players. Its ll about what he does when he gets the ball, 25 posessions from dangerfield has way more impact on the game than 40 from thompson. This is why Judd has 2 brownlows to his name, he doesnt have the 40 possession games, but his 25 posessions are highly impactful. The only thing holding cotchin back is that Richmond may not have enough wins on the board to get enough votes. As 90% of votes go to the winning team. Cotchin is a gun tho, if he was at one of the top of the ladder clubs, he'd likely win. The scary thought is what is Naitanui gonna be like in 2-5 years time, the game has never seen a player like him. (not just a west coast biased comment, if he was at another club, id say the exact same thing).

 

[The Canon]

The scary thought is what is Naitanui gonna be like in 2-5 years time, the game has never seen a player like him. (not just a west coast biased comment, if he was at another club, id say the exact same thing).

Let's test that theory by switching him to Adelaide for next season...

I agree 100% with you. Nic Nat is as exciting a player as I've seen and will only get better as time goes on. A truly remarkable athlete.

 

[Ron The Bear]

RTB - not sure what your trying to convey..

if you wana take a sample of pollers in losing games and apply this with Cotchin, then it may be best to compare players who polled in losing games at the same stage Cotchin is currently at.

I did this earlier, perhaps you missed it.

After 37 h&a losses: Cotchin 5 votes (3 games); Ablett 3 (3); Swan 1 (1); Goodes 0 (0); Crawford 5 (4); Kelly 4 (2); Hird 3 (2). Watson 0 (0).

Again, not saying Cotchin will win (in fact I acknowledge he probably won't), but the claim that Cotchin won't poll in losses because he doesn't have a history of doing so, is invalid.

 

[WWSD]

Adelaide vs Gold Coast

Adelaide I Callinan 1 Vote
Adelaide S Thompson 2 Votes
Adelaide........ P Dangerfield 3 Votes

I know declare the winner of the 2012 Brownlow medal Patrick Dangerfield from the Adelaide Crows

I actually think Dangerfield will win it. The Crows have won 17 games and have been one of the stand out teams. I reckon he will poll heaps of votes.

Disposals average: 27.4
Marks: 4.2
Tackles: 3.3
Goals average: 1

 

[Chriseddy999]

Does anyone know when the bookies usually offer different markets for the brownlow? I mean like most votes from a certain team, or head to heads?

 

[ConfuciusSays]

Okay, sure, a non-finalist is unlikely to win the medal (a sad situation in my eyes, just look at Skilton) but the post from confucius seemed to imply that somehow Cotchin winning would be an injustice. I think it's unlikely, but ridiculous? For mine, Cotchin helped win as many games as Dangerfield.

Didn't say it was an injustice did i ? I said earlier, i would love for Cotchin to win a brownlow. Just not this year as I have 5-6 players ahead of him based on performances throughout the whole season, which some richmond supporters and umpires don't seem to understand.

 

[wart101]

Didn't say it was an injustice did i ? I said earlier, i would love for Cotchin to win a brownlow. Just not this year as I have 5-6 players ahead of him based on performances throughout the whole season, which some richmond supporters and umpires don't seem to understand.

Well since your the expert you must be right! thanks dude for the inside info!!

 

[ConfuciusSays]

Well since your the expert you must be right! thanks dude for the inside info!!

Always happy to help a one eyed supporter .

 

[wart101]

Always happy to help a one eyed supporter .

wow you are GOOD! not only do you know more than the umpires you seem to be able to know exactly who i am from 1 sentence damn me dude damn bigfooty you should start a site called bigHEAD!