Who will win the Brownlow?

[whatlez]

Cotchin, Thompson, Dangerfield, Watson, Ablett.

Swan and Beams smokies. I do not see anyone challenging, but I have been wrong before...

 

[roosaints]

Mitchell is the value bet. Best midfielder in the side that finished on top and smashed sides most weeks. Who else will steal votes? Franklin obviously should poll 20+ but he missed a chunk of games and he's not a midfielder. Can't see Rioli polling heavily as he doesn't get big stats and the umpires hate Lewis. Sewell?

I reckon Mitchell will pile up at least the 1s and 2s in Hawthorn wins and should poll in the high 20s.

 

[roosaints]

You mean the award where every player, at the end of the year, votes for who they think the best player was? You think that's a better award than one in which game by game tallies are awarded then summed up at the end? You'd rather just ask the players, probably during Mad Monday, "So, who do you think was best?", and you think that's a prestigious award?

Why not just ask a goldfish.

I agree, AFLPA MVP is a joke. I cringe when people say it is the best award. Generally just goes to the most hyped player of the season. That's rarely undeserving as players are hyped for a reason but an award given on the 'vibe' rather than week-to-week performance is flawed. Alot of footballers hardly watch other games.

Coaches MVP a far superior award.

 

[the_interloper]

Mitchell is the value bet. Best midfielder in the side that finished on top and smashed sides most weeks. Who else will steal votes? Franklin obviously should poll 20+ but he missed a chunk of games and he's not a midfielder. Can't see Rioli polling heavily as he doesn't get big stats and the umpires hate Lewis. Sewell?

I reckon Mitchell will pile up at least the 1s and 2s in Hawthorn wins and should poll in the high 20s.

Not a bad theory. I haven't done the stats but I'm sure the Brownlow winner would more often than not be in the top 4. And don't believe that s**t about "players taking votes off one another", the more games a team wins the more votes there are to go around (Brissy had a few Brownlow winners when they were awesome, Bartel won one, Judd and Cuzzy at WCE etc)

 

[Barnzy]

Mitchell is the value bet. Best midfielder in the side that finished on top and smashed sides most weeks. Who else will steal votes? Franklin obviously should poll 20+ but he missed a chunk of games and he's not a midfielder. Can't see Rioli polling heavily as he doesn't get big stats and the umpires hate Lewis. Sewell?

I reckon Mitchell will pile up at least the 1s and 2s in Hawthorn wins and should poll in the high 20s.

Reckon you could be right. Joel Selwood will also poll well for the same reason.

 

[Partridge]

I always thought Paul Roos polled 3 votes in a 100+ point loss once while playing for Fitzroy? 1991 maybe? Must be wrong.

I reckon your best bet there would be Templeton in 1980 for Footscray. They were rubbish and he was a thoroughly deserving winner from centre half forward. Amazing performance especially looking back now.

 

[Lord Nicholson]

Richmond players have never done well in Brownlows.
We shall see if the trend continues.

5 different winners, no?

Pretty much the same as Essendon, then.

The three highest-Brownlow-netting clubs are classically unsuccessful ones. It's not particularly something to be proud of.

 

[Grimmjow]

No player in the 28 seasons of complete records has earned a 3 in a loss of more than 65 points (697 games).

absolutely terrific RTB

 

[ize_]

Am starting to settle on Watson, then Ablett, S. Thompson, Cotchin and Beams.

Going to be a massive field of legitimate contenders though.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

I'm going Dangerfield now. Polled 7 votes last year from games that would be seen as "below average" by his standards this year (apart from his 6 goal game, of course). Umpires notice him. Gonna come home with a wet sail.

 

[Coaster2012]

For the favorites to win, a statistical anomaly must take place, and as we all know from the weekend (straight sets) it doesn't happen. I'm going to throw some money on Beams to win it

 

[Corrosion]

There is no way Swan will win this year. Sure he got a lot of touches in the games he played but he has been nowhere near as damaging as previous years.

And if he scores 3 votes in the game against Hawthorn (Where he stat padded to the extreme) then I think I'll lose the last bit of faith I have left in the brownlow.

 

[ZAAHAARAKIS!!!!!]

how many votes did cotchin poll last year?
Usually you have the sort of 'recognition year' and then a year later mount a challenge.
This will most likely be recognition year for Danger and Beams, but they still should poll fairly well

 

[amer]

Tend to think Dangerfield's a huge chance not because I'm an Adelaide supporter, but because the bloke plays such a noticeable brand of footy. Jobe will be up there, Mitchell too.

 

[strategy]

After the debacle of the AA AFL 2012 selections , its a toss of the coin , i guess it depends on who will be favoured by the money people.

 

[eaglespremiers]

After the debacle of the AA AFL 2012 selections , its a toss of the coin , i guess it depends on who will be favoured by the money people.

Such cynicism.
Hope you don't have that mood if Watson rakes it in.

 

[Chriseddy999]

What are people thinking in the multis today?

 

[Rustin Cohle]

1. Watson
=2. Cotchin, Mitchell
=3. Ablett, Kennedy, Swan
4. Thompson

 

[democritus]

Can we have some sort of Phantom Brownlow board? Whilst most offer up genuine insight, quite a few seem to be self-aggrandising posts not worthy of an individual thread. So many secret formulas!

 

[tb_fanboy]

After the debacle of the AA AFL 2012 selections , its a toss of the coin , i guess it depends on who will be favoured by the money people.

Naitanui-Riloi tied brown low.

Seriously It wouldn't surprise me if NN finishes top 5

 

[eaglespremiers]

You reckon you're nervous.

I put $800 on Gazza (11/1) into Hawks (6.5/1) to win over $50k.

Will lay off $20k if Ablett wins and the Hawks make it.

I will photocopy the ticket and post it after it's cashed as proof if required but not before.

Yes, to claim your winnings you need to post your ticket online as proof.

 

[Axle17]

Watson for me.
But Mitchell has snuck up on me. Good value for money

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

ran out of money in my online accounts, put more in this morning, but seems like it won't be coming in today. Pretty devo. Will probably work out better in the end though haha. Have put $250 on, 20 5 leg multi's (team winners) and $50 on Kennedy leading at round 5. Wanted to go a few more head to heads, and get on Dengerfield most votes from rd 17-23. Was $2.50 when I first saw it, now $1.90.

 

[CrimsonButterfly]

Getting on Josh Kennedy.

 

[The House]

If Jobe wins tonight, I'll have the 49ers to win the Super Bowl @ 220-1...they've firmed in the first 2 weeks of the season to 1st or 2nd favourite at 6's and 7's with most agencies - niners were 18-1 and Jobe I think around 16's when I put this on in Feb......and from what I've seen of the niners, green bay and the patriots this year, i'm REALLY hoping Jobe gets up as the niners are looking a very complete side.