News Worst I50 Conversion in 20 years

[4#Didak#4]

Now this is an impressive achievement. Its nice when the stats back up what we have been banging on about for quite a while.

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/co...s/news-story/b6b9da7b75074312e9cddf11192d69c2

Champion Data, Australia’s leading provider of sports statistics, revealed the Magpies’ “expected scores rating” is the worst of all sides this year.

The “expected scores rating” is a form of calculating the difficulty of a shot based on a number of factors such as the angle, distance and preferred boot of the kicker.

“You’ve got to ask the question if it’s the midfielders and their delivery or what’s in front of them, and the easy answer is a bit of both,” Luff said on SEN radio.

“They’re going at an expected scores rate of -8.7 per cent, which is worst in the competition. Their expected accuracy is 48 per cent and they’re going at 39.4 per cent.


“We got them as a 3-2 team rather than 1-4, so the accuracy, despite the fact it’s a ‘poo-poo’ excuse, is actually a genuine excuse.”

From there, Collingwood’s kicking stats got worse.


Collingwood’s inside-50 conversion rate is the worst recorded in 20 years.Source:Getty Images

Luff revealed Collingwood’s inside-50s conversion rate as the worst recorded in 20 years.

“They’re got problems one-on-one in the forward 50, clearly the worst in the competition. For 58 inside 50s a game they should be getting more scoring shots, but when they’re having the shots their accuracy is just horrendous.”

 

[spartan-magpie]

The positive in that is, when we finally kick straight we'll be unbeatable.

Gees I wish we can conjure up some sort of miracle and win our next 12 straight....


I'm over bucks and our current situation but I'd like nothing more than us to "click" and just shut all the media and every non pie the phark up.

They're all loving our misery. Scum.

 

[good4footy]

Put this in another thread:

The main bit for me is the bolded part below. Our game plan and therefore entry into 50 is so poor that we should be only averaging 48%. So even if we were kicking well, from the positions we enter we would only be about 50 / 50. The fact we compound that with poor kicking at goal means we are no chance to kick winning scores. That is how bad our entry's into 50 are. This is not just a skill set issue.

“They’re going at an expected scores rate of -8.7%, which is worst in the competition. Their expected accuracy is 48% and they’re going at 39.4%," Luff explained.

 

[piepark]

Fake news. This can't be possible? We stand side by side. We don't attack our own. Bucks is the greatest. Ever. Period.

What would we know? We are just simple supporters who have watched our club win two flags from coaches who didn't play for Collingwood and have two ex-captains coach us to wooden spoons.

I just don't believe it.

 

[spartan-magpie]

Now this is an impressive achievement. Its nice when the stats back up what we have been banging on about for quite a while.

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/co...s/news-story/b6b9da7b75074312e9cddf11192d69c2

Champion Data, Australia’s leading provider of sports statistics, revealed the Magpies’ “expected scores rating” is the worst of all sides this year.

The “expected scores rating” is a form of calculating the difficulty of a shot based on a number of factors such as the angle, distance and preferred boot of the kicker.

“You’ve got to ask the question if it’s the midfielders and their delivery or what’s in front of them, and the easy answer is a bit of both,” Luff said on SEN radio.

“They’re going at an expected scores rate of -8.7 per cent, which is worst in the competition. Their expected accuracy is 48 per cent and they’re going at 39.4 per cent.


“We got them as a 3-2 team rather than 1-4, so the accuracy, despite the fact it’s a ‘poo-poo’ excuse, is actually a genuine excuse.”

From there, Collingwood’s kicking stats got worse.


Collingwood’s inside-50 conversion rate is the worst recorded in 20 years.Source:Getty Images

Luff revealed Collingwood’s inside-50s conversion rate as the worst recorded in 20 years.

“They’re got problems one-on-one in the forward 50, clearly the worst in the competition. For 58 inside 50s a game they should be getting more scoring shots, but when they’re having the shots their accuracy is just horrendous.”

He's also thinks well come good. King was trying his best to assassinate Buckley and tried to play down an insight he provided. I sent them about 50 texts, because as angry I am with bucks, king is just a massive tossed and just disregards anything that he doesn't agree with.

Even during the game he showed a clip about our coward structure and how it was failing. Went to a passage of play where we cocked it up and he harped on about it. What he failed to mention was that 3 seconds later and in the same passage we scored a goal.

 

[TradeDraft]

Could it get any Worse?

 

[CFC2010]

Fake news. This can't be possible? We stand side by side. We don't attack our own. Bucks is the greatest. Ever. Period.

What would we know? We are just simple supporters who have watched our club win two flags from coaches who didn't play for Collingwood and have two ex-captains coach us to wooden spoons.

I just don't believe it.

Do you feel better now?

 

[4#Didak#4]

Put this in another thread:

The main bit for me is the bolded part below. Our game plan and therefore entry into 50 is so poor that we should be only averaging 48%. So even if we were kicking well, from the positions we enter we would only be about 50 / 50. The fact we compound that with poor kicking at goal means we are no chance to kick winning scores. That is how bad our entry's into 50 are. This is not just a skill set issue.

“They’re going at an expected scores rate of -8.7%, which is worst in the competition. Their expected accuracy is 48% and they’re going at 39.4%," Luff explained.

I don't actually think 48% is completely unusual competition wide, its not a stat that we are comparably poor in. The difference is some sides are hitting their expected accuracy and some are exceeding it and that is the difference in winning and losing. They are claiming that if we just hit that average expected accuracy we are 3-2 rather than 4-1. If our accuracy is better than expected then who knows where we would be.

The real problem is missing the very simple ones. Set shots with no angle. We are getting into positions to have very good shots on goal. If we kick those no one is thinking we have problems anymore. I actually think our kicking of tough goals is OK, which leads me to think its a mental thing that is compounding over time as the expectation & pressure goes up.

It comes back to who our goal kicking coach is, and getting their routines right - do we even have one anymore? I see simple errors being made that junior footballers make. Dropping the ball from too high (Clokey specialty), leaning back on kicks, not following through on kicks. These are coachable things. I know fatigue is blamed but that is when technique is most important. Tony Lockett was the greatest kick for goal ever because he did all the simple things right every time.

 

[4#Didak#4]

He's also thinks well come good. King was trying his best to assassinate Buckley and tried to play down an insight he provided. I sent them about 50 texts, because as angry I am with bucks, king is just a massive tossed and just disregards anything that he doesn't agree with.

Even during the game he showed a clip about our coward structure and how it was failing. Went to a passage of play where we cocked it up and he harped on about it. What he failed to mention was that 3 seconds later and in the same passage we scored a goal.

Its quite possible we will come good. The frustrating part is usually its the hardest thing to get those I50 opportunities and most sides would kill for that amount of ball. We seem to have completely lost all ability once we go inside. I think we have the players on paper to turn it around in fact we look a lot more dangerous other than in the big man stocks.

I think its all about them not knowing how to play together yet. It is a whole new and quite young front six. Its all about finding that "connection". This is something that netballers talk about a lot and it sounds a bit dicky but totally true. Theirs is game of best conversion wins. They talk about the connection between the different sections of court - mids to fwds all need to be on the same page running to the right places at the right time. If you don't have that synergy it quickly falls down when a pass is a fraction late or to an unanticipated spot. Our guys need to learn what their role is and how the guys around them are playing. I have heard comments form Pendles to that effect, that they ae not yet gelling as a group.

And yes David King is a docuhe and applaud your stalking of him.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Kick straight
Between the the bigger sticks.

Amazing what can happen

 

[4#Didak#4]

Its quite possible we will come good. The frustrating part is usually its the hardest thing to get those I50 opportunities and most sides would kill for that amount of ball. We seem to have completely lost all ability once we go inside. I think we have the players on paper to turn it around in fact we look a lot more dangerous other than in the big man stocks.

I think its all about them not knowing how to play together yet. It is a whole new and quite young front six. Its all about finding that "connection". This is something that netballers talk about a lot and it sounds a bit dicky but totally true. Theirs is game of best conversion wins. They talk about the connection between the different sections of court - mids to fwds all need to be on the same page running to the right places at the right time. If you don't have that synergy it quickly falls down when a pass is a fraction late or to an unanticipated spot. Our guys need to learn what their role is and how the guys around them are playing. I have heard comments form Pendles to that effect, that they ae not yet gelling as a group.

And yes David King is a docuhe and applaud your stalking of him.

Hopefully Mason is learning about connection & synergy from Sharni (Please no Cox jokes)

 

[MyManLynch]

Could it get any Worse?

Yes...lose to Carlton...a coach killer game.

 

[Markfs]

Yes...lose to Carlton...a coach killer game.

the coach is already killed.... we are thinking of ways to cook him now

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Accuracy kills

(If done good, no can defence - Mr Miyagi)
(If done bad, no can win - today's reality)

 

[The Magnificent Seven]

...Even during the game he showed a clip about our coward structure and how it was failing. Went to a passage of play where we cocked it up and he harped on about it....

Freudian slip?!?

 

[spartan-magpie]

Freudian slip?!?

Hahahaha. No, just typical sm non spell or grammar check post..

 

[biggiemediums]

Accuracy kills

(If done good, no can defence - Mr Miyagi)
(If done bad, no can win - today's reality)

Made me genuinely laugh out loud. Brilliant haha.

 

[Adeo66]

Do you feel better now?

I hope he does, what a classic and the truth, bit like the titanic, the coach is going down with the ship this time, 2017 is another waste, but there is always next year, something to look forward to, maybe


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Pedro]

He's also thinks well come good. King was trying his best to assassinate Buckley and tried to play down an insight he provided. I sent them about 50 texts, because as angry I am with bucks, king is just a massive tossed and just disregards anything that he doesn't agree with.

Even during the game he showed a clip about our coward structure and how it was failing. Went to a passage of play where we cocked it up and he harped on about it. What he failed to mention was that 3 seconds later and in the same passage we scored a goal.

King is a pickle. He always cherry picks bits of vision that prove a point, and ignores several others which discount it.

 

[Scodog10]

Put this in another thread:

The main bit for me is the bolded part below. Our game plan and therefore entry into 50 is so poor that we should be only averaging 48%. So even if we were kicking well, from the positions we enter we would only be about 50 / 50. The fact we compound that with poor kicking at goal means we are no chance to kick winning scores. That is how bad our entry's into 50 are. This is not just a skill set issue.

“They’re going at an expected scores rate of -8.7%, which is worst in the competition. Their expected accuracy is 48% and they’re going at 39.4%," Luff explained.

Spot on! Blaming conversion on our start to the year is fair enough if the expectation was 55-60%, but at 48% our record remains 1-4 if we break even to the expectations.

Overall it's poor, but the primary reason it's poor is because of the congestion in our forward third brought about by the forward press. Playing the way we do is simply padding out our I50 numbers and blunting both our actual and potential conversion.

We desperately need to fix our ball movement and the conversion will take care of itself! Please Bucks fix the way we play!!

 

[Scodog10]

I don't actually think 48% is completely unusual competition wide, its not a stat that we are comparably poor in. The difference is some sides are hitting their expected accuracy and some are exceeding it and that is the difference in winning and losing. They are claiming that if we just hit that average expected accuracy we are 3-2 rather than 4-1. If our accuracy is better than expected then who knows where we would be.

The real problem is missing the very simple ones. Set shots with no angle. We are getting into positions to have very good shots on goal. If we kick those no one is thinking we have problems anymore. I actually think our kicking of tough goals is OK, which leads me to think its a mental thing that is compounding over time as the expectation & pressure goes up.

It comes back to who our goal kicking coach is, and getting their routines right - do we even have one anymore? I see simple errors being made that junior footballers make. Dropping the ball from too high (Clokey specialty), leaning back on kicks, not following through on kicks. These are coachable things. I know fatigue is blamed but that is when technique is most important. Tony Lockett was the greatest kick for goal ever because he did all the simple things right every time.

An expected ratio of 48% is poor.

I would be shocked if Adelaide's expected rate isn't at least 10% better than ours because of how well they move the ball. Their conversion on the season sits at 60.2%.

Such a discrepancy is huge with these stats given we needed to only be 8% off to be the worst recorded in 20 years of data!

FWIW how they got us to a 3-2 record is beyond me given we kick 91 v the Bulldogs, 85 v Richmond, 65 v St Kilda and 92 v Essendon. It's a bit rough to expect those teams to be kicking worse at the same time we convert better with no change to the way we play...

 

[Maggie5]

An expected ratio of 48% is poor.

I would be shocked if Adelaide's expected rate isn't at least 10% better than ours because of how well they move the ball. Their conversion on the season sits at 60.2%.

Such a discrepancy is huge with these stats given we needed to only be 8% off to be the worst recorded in 20 years of data!

FWIW how they got us to a 3-2 record is beyond me given we kick 91 v the Bulldogs, 85 v Richmond, 65 v St Kilda and 92 v Essendon. It's a bit rough to expect those teams to be kicking worse at the same time we convert better with no change to the way we play...

You going today?
On the subject on conversation, is it because of our or have the scores in games this year reflected a much higher points being scored overall by a number of teams?
If so, is it the speed of the game or skills? (Not just our games).

 

[Scodog10]

You going today?
On the subject on conversation, is it because of our or have the scores in games this year reflected a much higher points being scored overall by a number of teams?
If so, is it the speed of the game or skills? (Not just our games).

Yep heading along.

Early rounds have generally followed the pattern of previous years where the first month is high scoring then it slowly drops away because grounds get heavier.

Conversion on the whole is down amongst teams that play a similar way to us which for me is an even further indication that it's based on the way clubs are playing. Those looking to flood the contest are struggling (us, the Bulldogs and St Kilda) the main difference to this point between the three is how they structure up behind the ball.

Speed of ball movement which goes hand in hand with skill and foot speed. Port Adelaide for example don't have an overly quick group with only Polec, Pittard and Impey real speedsters. The key difference is how they move it from contests their grunt types (Wines, Boak, Ebert and SPP) work their arse off to release those runners. Our metres gained group all play through the middle in Treloar, Crisp and Wells so not only do they need to be the ones winning it, but then break from the contest as well.

As an opposition if you put time into shutting down their run it becomes easy to break down our overlap which impacts our ability to spot up I50 and then convert.

If the result goes against us this week I'd be interested in putting Treloar behind the ball with JDG back. There's a few reasons for it Sinner has been a huge blow and Treloar is the most similar in how he plays because he always moves. A lot of Treloar's disposal issues are because as above he breaks free of stoppages is charging into attack then kicking into a congestion F50 or hacking it out of packs. We could also be even stronger at the coalface with a main group of Wells, JDG, Crisp, Adams and Pendles.

All clubs play with a defensive 7 so I wouldn't be concerned that they'll play through his man because that man will either be at the contest or in our F50 (nothing new there). Simply a thought to make us quicker off half back and speed up our ball movement.

 

[4#Didak#4]

An expected ratio of 48% is poor.

I would be shocked if Adelaide's expected rate isn't at least 10% better than ours because of how well they move the ball. Their conversion on the season sits at 60.2%.

Such a discrepancy is huge with these stats given we needed to only be 8% off to be the worst recorded in 20 years of data!

FWIW how they got us to a 3-2 record is beyond me given we kick 91 v the Bulldogs, 85 v Richmond, 65 v St Kilda and 92 v Essendon. It's a bit rough to expect those teams to be kicking worse at the same time we convert better with no change to the way we play...

It is not a conversion rate its is an "expected accuracy" percentage from the position each shot is taken and includes shots that do not score - i.e. fall short, out of bounds. I would expect the good sides that use the ball better and the corridor to have a higher expected accuracy as they get it in better positions. Whether they kick them is another matter. We saw that yesterday with our ball movement a lot more direct and central and makes shots on goal easier, so our expected accuracy would have been higher, but I doubt we achieved that expected accuracy as we missed some easy ones (although we did nail some hard ones that evens things up a bit).

We were in positions to win all of those games except St Kilda (even then we should have taken a decent lead early and didn't) so its not such a great leap to say if we cleaned up our kicking for goal we would have turned a couple of those games around.