Preview Would you rather....(warning: counting chickens before they hatch)

[Malifice]

Any chance of a home final against Fremantle.

We would need a massive form reversal from the past few weeks, and to notch up some major upsets in our remaining games.

Not out of the question, but we'd need to catch up on 2 games and 5 % points to get there.

Remaining matches 5th - 9th:

Freo: (11 wins)
WCE Win
North (Ettihad) 50/50
Sydney (Subi) Win
Hawks (Tassie) Loss
Carlton (Subi) 50/50

Hawthorn: (9 and a draw)
Port (AAMI) Win
Sydney (SCG) Win
Melbourne Win
Freo (Tassie) Win
Pies 50/50

Carlton: (9 wins)
Pies Loss
Essendon (MCG) 50/50
Richmond Win
Geelong Loss
Freo (Subi) 50/50

Swans: (9 wins)
Geelong (ANZ) Loss
Hawks (SCG) Loss
Freo (Subi) Win
Dogs (SCG) Loss
Brisbane (Gabba) Win

North: (8 wins)
Doggies (etthad) Loss
Freo (ettihad) 50/50
Saints Loss
WCE (Subi) Win
Melbourne Win

I have the final 5th - 9th:

5th: Hawks 14 and a draw
6th: Freo 13-14 wins
7th: Swans 11 wins
8th: Carl 11 wins
9th: North 10 wins (or 11 and poor %)

With Adelaide an outside chance.

Hawthorn should storm home with only one tricky game (Pies round 22) left, and luckily Sydney have as shitty a run home as us.

What will Kill us over the next moth is %.

Only 1% separates us and the Swans, and we face Geelong, Collingwood, Freo (at Subi) and Essendon in that month. Richmond is our only real 'monty' game.

Thankfully, the Swans draw is probably a touch worse with Geelong, Hawks, Freo (Subi), Dogs (SCG). They should get a nice % boost v the Lions.

Im tipping an elim final at the 'G vs an in form (and up on confidence) Hawthorn after we get home from our road trip from Subi.

And a likely thumping and another quick exit from the finals.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

Any chance of a home final against Fremantle.

Of course there is we just need to beat the Pies and the Cats... or hope that Freo lose to the Eagles, Swans and Us all at home and basically not win another game.

Big test for us against the Cats who a few think we match up well against BTW, well lets see it in round 22 when they will be peaking and not be cherry ripe for the picking with form, attitude and injury worries which is why we have got them the last 2 times.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

We would need a massive form reversal from the past few weeks, and to notch up some major upsets in our remaining games.

Not out of the question, but we'd need to catch up on 2 games and 5 % points to get there.

Remaining matches 5th - 9th:

Freo: (11 wins)
WCE Win
North (Ettihad) 50/50
Sydney (Subi) Win
Hawks (Tassie) Loss
Carlton (Subi) 50/50

Hawthorn: (9 and a draw)
Port (AAMI) Win
Sydney (SCG) Win
Melbourne Win
Freo (Tassie) Win
Pies 50/50

Carlton: (9 wins)
Pies Loss
Essendon (MCG) 50/50
Richmond Win
Geelong Loss
Freo (Subi) 50/50

Swans: (9 wins)
Geelong (ANZ) Loss
Hawks (SCG) Loss
Freo (Subi) Win
Dogs (SCG) Loss
Brisbane (Gabba) Win

North: (8 wins)
Doggies (etthad) Loss
Freo (ettihad) 50/50
Saints Loss
WCE (Subi) Win
Melbourne Win

I have the final 5th - 9th:

5th: Hawks 14 and a draw
6th: Freo 13-14 wins
7th: Swans 11 wins
8th: Carl 11 wins
9th: North 10 wins (or 11 and poor %)

With Adelaide an outside chance.

Hawthorn should storm home with only one tricky game (Pies round 22) left, and luckily Sydney have as shitty a run home as us.

What will Kill us over the next moth is %.

Only 1% separates us and the Swans, and we face Geelong, Collingwood, Freo (at Subi) and Essendon in that month. Richmond is our only real 'monty' game.

Thankfully, the Swans draw is probably a touch worse with Geelong, Hawks, Freo (Subi), Dogs (SCG). They should get a nice % boost v the Lions.

Im tipping an elim final at the 'G vs an in form (and up on confidence) Hawthorn after we get home from our road trip from Subi.

And a likely thumping and another quick exit from the finals.

Mal I think we will finish above Sydney as I dont think they will win another game possibly or maybe 1 at best, If we can get 2 wins hopefully Essendon and Richmond games we will finish a game clear of them if that pans out that way. This will mean an away final against Freo potentially, Your little win/loss predictor has both Freo and Sydney winning when they play each other which I have highlighted... Are you tipping a draw or an oversight.

If we do play Freo in the first week of the finals we will definately have to return home for recovery, analysis and preparation purposes... just dont know how we could prepare for a final without all the equipment we would need to do so properly.

 

[Athomas]

Maybe I'm underrating Fremantle, but they are missing a lot of genuine talent now and I think are in big trouble over the next month. If Mundy misses again they are f**ked.

 

[Malifice]

Your little win/loss predictor has both Freo and Sydney winning when they play each other which I have highlighted... Are you tipping a draw or an oversight.

My bad.

Youd have to go Freo over the Swans (in Subi)... just.

 

[Koutafidamedis]

vs Hawks - Get to go watch the boys in a final FINALLY its been soooo long.

vs Freo - Better chance to get to the 2nd week

Either way at this point in time I'm just happy to get in there.

 

[IheartCarrots]

If we do play Freo in the first week of the finals we will definately have to return home for recovery, analysis and preparation purposes... just dont know how we could prepare for a final without all the equipment we would need to do so properly.

Mate, it's not like we'd be staying in a tin shed. All those facilities are accesible over there and all the people would be too. Seeing as, if we were playing freo at subi, we'd spend most of the week doing skills sessions, recovery and light training it makes far more sense to leave the majority of the team there so they'll be fresher.

Carlton will have already considered the likelihood of the final at subi and will make arrangements beforehand. The only downside is if there are any players in doubt because of injury. To be practical you'd really have to decide your final list on the Wednesday and fly any changes there that night as well as keep a full compliment of emergencies.

 

[dumb]

have doubts whoever we play, pinching a final would be a bonus. it's possible we can get into the second week but our form currently not great. next few weeks will give us a chance to see how we go against the big boys (and a couple of easier games, on paper anyway).

 

[BlueYoss]

Big test for us against the Cats who a few think we match up well against BTW, well lets see it in round 22 when they will be peaking and not be cherry ripe for the picking with form, attitude and injury worries which is why we have got them the last 2 times.

We play the Cats in round 21.

They were certainly not peaking in round 21 of 2007.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

We play the Cats in round 21.

They were certainly not peaking in round 21 of 2007.

What happen then??? did they rest a few because they had a top 2 spot sewn up??

 

[BlueYoss]

It was the last time they lost a game at Skilled.

They had the minor premiership in the bag. They rested Selwood and Bartel was in for surgery.

 

[carltoninsider]

Not sure if the AFL have changed the rules or not regarding home finals . But i do remember a non-vic club finishing 5th and traveling interstate 1st week . From memory the AFL only guarentees a home final in the first week to the top 2 teams . If 5th or 6th travels first week and wins then they get home final second week . The club that traveled may of been Freo under Conolly . Can't see the AFL making the Blues travel 2 wek in a row to Subi . And if so the would not stay in Perth.... Hotel room is not a good inviroment for the right preparation .

 

[reubski23]

Not sure if the AFL have changed the rules or not regarding home finals . But i do remember a non-vic club finishing 5th and traveling interstate 1st week . From memory the AFL only guarentees a home final in the first week to the top 2 teams . If 5th or 6th travels first week and wins then they get home final second week . The club that traveled may of been Freo under Conolly . Can't see the AFL making the Blues travel 2 wek in a row to Subi . And if so the would not stay in Perth.... Hotel room is not a good inviroment for the right preparation .

sorry to intrude on your board. But I think if that happened there would be outrage, it just takes away all the incentive from finishing 5th or 6th. If carlton finish 8th and freo finish 5th then i am nearly 100% sure Freo will get a home final and you will have to travel twice. And the winner will have to play an away final against the loser of one of the qualifying finals.
again sorry to intrude. But I just had to write

 

[Bluebear]

- Play a home final against a rampaging Hawthorn (assuming we come 7th, Hawks come 6th)

OR

- Play an away final against a beatable Fremantle (assuming we come 8th, they stay in 5th)

In an ideal world I'd knock out Hawthorn and it would all but make up for times we've lost against them

However despite playing an away final I fancy us more against Freo without Barlow

Thoughts?

My gut says that in round 22 we should be playing a dress rehersal of the Elimination final. (Should - relies on us actually beating Richmond and one of Essendon or Freo).

We will go to Subi 3 of our last 7 games........or maybe 3 of our last 8.......or 9......or......

Freo should win enough games that they will finish ahead of us, but below either the Hawks or the Dogs.

 

[Go_Blues!]

Not sure if the AFL have changed the rules or not regarding home finals . But i do remember a non-vic club finishing 5th and traveling interstate 1st week . From memory the AFL only guarentees a home final in the first week to the top 2 teams . If 5th or 6th travels first week and wins then they get home final second week . The club that traveled may of been Freo under Conolly . Can't see the AFL making the Blues travel 2 wek in a row to Subi . And if so the would not stay in Perth.... Hotel room is not a good inviroment for the right preparation .

Nah, that was the old days before the afl cut a new deal with the MCC. Now, the higher ladder position is always respected.

 

[Malifice]

Nah, that was the old days before the afl cut a new deal with the MCC. Now, the higher ladder position is always respected.

As it should be.

We benefited from that a few years back v WCE.

The year we made the GF v North if I recall.

 

[Go_Blues!]

As it should be.

We benefited from that a few years back v WCE.

The year we made the GF v North if I recall.

Yes, absolutly as it should be. Of course, had the system been more fair in 1999, the chances are that the Eagles would have beaten us. Had that happened the world would have been robbed of the prelim against Essendon....out of great injustice, justice follows....